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The truth about trading 163 replies

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The brutal truth of day trading

Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi RickM, this is scalping the 1m chart in a falling market. Edit - actually first pic is swing, 2nd pic is scalp fifo. Btw I don't scalp. {image} {image}
Hi BWilliams

That scalp looked good to be, you should reconsider living dangerously.


Here is your chart but for the record, here was the prefect trade you won't lose on.
You need to take that first drop because the first lows gets the candy.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi RickM, this is scalping the 1m chart in a falling market. Edit - actually first pic is swing, 2nd pic is scalp fifo. Btw I don't scalp. {image} {image}
this donchian setting for GBPUSD looks very familiar
Quoting RickM
here was the prefect trade you won't lose on
Same trade we both made. How it looks at mt5. Just for record.

Take a look at delta.

I call it AAAAAA (6A) setup. When distance, candle color, candle size, stochastic, delta and time both good. I'm not using footprint and orderbook like RickM, mt5 is a piece of shit and just don't have it. So I have to use few standard indicators to confirm delta signals.
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Observer effect
2 trades made earlier based off FIBO, would like to see how's the volume look like

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Quoting mixedbags
2 trades made earlier based off FIBO, would like to see how's the volume look like {image}
Sorry, we don't have AUDJPY data, only Majors, gold, silver, btc, us500 and so on.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/pro...tAsc&sortField
Observer effect
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} We don't have AUDJPY data, only Majors, gold, silver, btc, us500 and so on.
noted thanks
Quoting joyny
{quote} And here we come to real ugly truth about day trading.. If day traders would implement their trading strategy in an EA and backtest some 10 years past... Most of who trade 1M or 5M or even 1H charts would see they wipe out entire accounts. Without proper backtesting day traders can live in illusion that their "structure" is safe. And then those who code an EA, backtest it and hope that 1 particular setup they found will profit in future... Thats wrong using of backteting too.. Learn about fluctuations and adjust your approach accordingly....
Unfortunately, backtesting became readily available at approximately the same time that algos flooded into the markets. There haven't been scraps to trade for over a decade.because the algos shave everything. And they don't ask for wages.

There is no need to learn to treat humans humanely if no one sympathizes with machine slaves. Societies are doomed.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
Quoting joyny
{quote} And here we come to real ugly truth about day trading.. If day traders would implement their trading strategy in an EA and backtest some 10 years past... Most of who trade 1M or 5M or even 1H charts would see they wipe out entire accounts. Without proper backtesting day traders can live in illusion that their "structure" is safe. And then those who code an EA, backtest it and hope that 1 particular setup they found will profit in future... Thats wrong using of backteting too.. Learn about fluctuations and adjust your approach accordingly....
But you can use backtests to ensure that another one holy grail super profitable system is just a bullshit. That is great!

P.S. Don't like EA naming. Why it is expert? It has no expertise. Why it is advisor? Advice me? What advises? 100% idiotic naming.
For example I'm not developing EAs. I'm creating algos and robots (bots). That is correct naming.
Observer effect
Quoting kk100
.How About CrowdSourcing. They Allways tell, retails can't change Markets, Lets Try ! Tell Pairs which would be most best our test. At least Brokers/ECN should be group of bs.. who tell they have 20 liq providers. If goldman sachs told in bloomberg they will drop liq providers less, how these lousy brokers telll they have enough money keep them up.
It might be quite doable for some penny stock.
Quoting ryuryu
Don't like EA naming. Why it is expert? It has no expertise. Why it is advisor? Advice me? What advises? 100% idiotic naming. For example I'm not developing EAs. I'm creating algos and robots (bots). That is correct naming.
From wikijob:

An expert advisor (EA) is a piece of software that takes care of analysis and uses internal algorithms and technical indicators to notify you when a trade should be taking place – finding the best entry points for high-probability trades.

Created to help both experienced traders and complete beginners, most expert advisors will calculate the lowest price to enter a market and the highest price to sell, following a specific set of trade signals and user settings.

Marketing. That's why "expert" and "advisor"... so newbies can "trust" them
Quoting joyny
{quote} From wikijob: An expert advisor (EA) is a piece of software that takes care of analysis and uses internal algorithms and technical indicators to notify you when a trade should be taking place – finding the best entry points for high-probability trades. Created to help both experienced traders and complete beginners, most expert advisors will calculate the lowest price to enter a market and the highest price to sell, following a specific set of trade signals...
Expert advice from EA experts sounds like most experts and the tools of their craft: "That thing has no clue what the f*ck it's doing most of the time! Give me that damn hammer... I'll do it myself!"
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Expert advice from EA experts sounds like most experts and the tools of their craft: "That thing has no clue what the f*ck it's doing most of the time! Give me that damn hammer... I'll do it myself!"
I have 11 EA’s still running on several pairs.
Would you be so kind to borrow me your hammer so I can put myself out of my misery.

They say the happiest day in a traders life is when they run their EA onto a live chart for the first time, then shut it down and burn their Algorithm files in the biggest bonfire they can find.
A hammer however should do the job nicely.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi BWilliams That scalp looked good to be, you should reconsider living dangerously. Here is your chart but for the record, here was the prefect trade you won't lose on. You need to take that first drop because the first lows gets the candy. {image}
Hi RickM, I don't scalp. The best trade(George call this the best seat in the house.) is to trade the intraday swing in the direction of the prevailing market sentiment that has low risk because the opposite buyers and sellers are weak. And the swing move gives huge reward to limited risk. Just one of this trade a day marked by the yellow line is enough to make serious money. The master Algo math is the same for all pairs. Why waste time with scalping?

People still don't realise that the master Algo control the price, the volume and sentiment just follow the algo bidding.
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Trade the value
Quoting BWilliam
People still don't realise that the master Algo control the price, the volume and sentiment just follow the algo bidding.
Even if such "master" algo exists... it can be beated with other algos then. If a man something built then another man can destroy that.
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi RickM, I don't scalp. The best trade(George call this the best seat in the house.) is to trade the intraday swing in the direction of the prevailing market sentiment that has low risk because the opposite buyers and sellers are weak. And the swing move gives huge reward to limited risk. Just one of this trade a day marked by the yellow line is enough to make serious money. The master Algo math is the same for all pairs. Why waste time with scalping? People still don't realise that the master Algo control the price, the volume and sentiment...
Hi BWilliams

I think its wrong to say Buyers or Sellers are strong or weak, the strength of market order or sentiment doesn't decide direction of the market.
As an example last night on EURUSD, one hour after London open, I can tell you the Buyers Liquidity entering the chart was double the liquidity of sellers.
At its climax of Bids over Asks, I saw a top of 3 buying limit orders over one selling limit order for a 20 minute period.

Did price go up - YES

Was the strong strength of Buying limited orders a easy way to trade the market - NO

The problem with your theory in my eyes (just my opinion) is the Master Algo cannot control placement of limit orders nor the density of those orders.
Price when up because the order density was thinner in the Sellers and thicker in the Buyers. The big players allowed the Liquidity to be absorbed by the Sellers for two hours, then flipped the density when Bids over Asks climaxed.
What I mean is suddenly the Selling orders stopped absorbing price because those orders became tightly packed together to block a bullish move. Order blocks increased in size - Price was forced Bearish.

The Master Algo has no control of dense limit order placement on a chart, it has no power to do ANYTHING but execute orders.
If a Big Player places a thousand lot buying block in the market, there isn't enough orders on a chart to break through.
You can't go bullish with 500 lots if a Selling order is 5000 lots -

Its physics -


As for scalping its quite easy to explain why I scalp.
If I take 50 trades a night, I am not placing my whole days earning on one trade.
I expect and demand well over 85% of my trades win between 0.02% to 0.05% increase in equity.
I expect and accept I will lose 15% of my trades by 0.05 to 0.15% in decrease in equity
I don't need to find that AAA+ trade - I just need to work hard to average between 0.30% to 0.80% increase in equity per day.

If you are good enough to just place one trade and win big every single time - you are a far better trader than me.


Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi BWilliams I think its wrong to say Buyers or Sellers are strong or weak, the strength of market order or sentiment doesn't decide direction of the market. As an example last night on EURUSD, one hour after London open, I can tell you the Buyers Liquidity entering the chart was double the liquidity of sellers. At its climax of Bids over Asks, I saw a top of 3 buying limit orders over one selling limit order for a 20 minute period. Did price go up - YES Was the strong strength of Buying limited orders a easy way to trade the market - NO...
This is the EU chart for Thursday and Friday. London open is marked by the yellow line.

The chart clearly show there's weak selling after the big buy up on Thursday. There's no indication of any selling pressure.

To me this is the work of the master Algo. The rest of the consequential event that follow is trading according to the preset intent of this master algo. Follow the math of the master algo to be trading in line with it. The math says it's going north on Friday.

About scalping, the trader has to be correct 50times a day. I only aim to be correct once a day. Do I expect to be correct 5 times a day ? No way. It's hard to find a real edge even once a day. That's the brutal truth for me.

So to me, I seriously don't understand how any trader can execute 50 trades a day and be correct with majority of his trades. I can't imagine how there're so many real trading edge on the chart. That's just beyond me. Perhaps I'm not smart enough. I'd be happy if I find just one trading edge a day.
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Trade the value
Quoting joyny
{quote} Even if such "master" algo exists... it can be beated with other algos then. If a man something built then another man can destroy that.
The thing is most traders follow economics 101 as the base for their trading.
Another group see it from a physics perspective.

Based on this core belief, the rest of their trading strategy is built upon this belief.

I believe this market is driven by the master algo.
I build my trading strategy base on this belief.

I don't try to "beat" the master algo.
I try to understand the math of the master algo, then trade according to it's intent.

The pics that I post on here are to present this master algo intent.
I trade with the actual algo heatmap on my chart.

George wrote a thread about this master algo here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...core-tma-intra?

Edit - The algo math can be used to create alerts shown by the dots in this pic. Just that there're also false signals that need to be manually filtered to be used in context with the rest of the heatmap.
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Trade the value
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This is the EU chart for Thursday and Friday. London open is marked by the yellow line. The chart clearly show there's weak selling after the big buy up on Thursday. There's no indication of any selling pressure. To me this is the work of the master Algo. The rest of the consequential event that follow is trading according to the preset intent of this master algo. Follow the math of the master algo to be trading in line with it. The math says it's going north on Friday. About scalping, the trader has to be correct 50times a day. I only aim...
Hi BWilliams

That chart is history so of course we can see the Sellers were weak, but what about on live trading?
The price was moving bullish but why?

I can tell you the Sellers were not weak, their orders were coming through at about normal quality's. It was strong bullish orders at about double the quality and were placed tightly together.
That was the big players actions - unless the Algo can magically out of thin air place Buying limit orders on the chart closely together, it had no part in the move.

I have looked closely at your trades earlier this year, 80% of your calls were just placed at high volume locations defined by extreme Bid orders on a Bearish move and extreme Ask orders on a Bullish move. To be fair to you 20% of your calls which produced a nice profit are unexplainable by volume so you are either lucky 20% of the times or have some trading edge I lack the ability to understand.

Then we get to George and his great thread he started two years back. I also based by current Sine Wave strategy of his work as you know and that is the reason a high win rate is possible. It does require the additional of live volume data to be factored in to achieve my profit objectives.

The chart below shows Cumulative Volume for that move on EURUSD
Clearly that Pullback was worth Buying (not that I trade M15 however)
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
There are a lot of ways to skin a cat.
These trendlines were drawn one or many weeks ago. Definitely not this week. It's one of my tools I look it.
BTW it's not redrawn after break of trendline and I think i should add data usage as fourth wheel of my super car
Have a good weekend.
edit: These aren't point A to B trendlines.
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Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi BWilliams That chart is history so of course we can see the Sellers were weak, but what about on live trading? The price was moving bullish but why? I can tell you the Sellers were not weak, their orders were coming through at about normal quality's. It was strong bullish orders at about double the quality and were placed tightly together. That was the big players actions - unless the Algo can magically out of thin air place Buying limit orders on the chart closely together, it had no part in the move. I have looked closely at your trades...
The math algo alert code show mostly buy alert for EU. I don't know what the buy and sell volume is in live market, what the big banks are doing. But EU is clearly in a rising market on Friday.

If the strategy is not objectively quantified how are we to know how it perform?
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13618887

This forum tells us that we trade with our "eyes" staring at naked chart.
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Trade the value
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