The brutal truth of day trading | Page 87 | Forex Factory

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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #1,721
  • Jul 8, 2021 10:49pm Jul 8, 2021 10:49pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} GU has been on a falling market for the last 5 weeks. Last 3 days this week it has fallen. Any rise in price is an overvaluation for sellers. That's a lot of trading days of selling. NFP pushed the price into overvalued territory. Why buy into a falling market ? {image} {image}
I'm working with 5 day's value (+ my other reinvented wheels). On the bigger picture you might be right. Today I'm looking for 1.36800-136500 (Just a plan). Monday is balancing work. Paid attention that value always seeks to be balanced.
GU is dropping down slowly with balance. Maybe your way is totally different than mine, but I'm glad to see what you think.
  • #1,722
  • Jul 8, 2021 10:57pm Jul 8, 2021 10:57pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} - Risk off scenario, more corona vaccines available - Evacuation from Afghanistan, these funds now free for Americans - Dollar getting strengthen and Gold along with foreign currencies are bearish. {image}
Here's how I objectively quantify what I see when to buy into a falling market - when the sellers has already exhausted their selling activities. It happened after London close. Most of the trading opportunities are selling for the whole day. This morning the market again sold into an overvalued price in weak market whenever price approach 1.3800.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gum15.PNG Size: 33 KB
Know what you trade
  • #1,723
  • Jul 8, 2021 11:02pm Jul 8, 2021 11:02pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's how I objectively quantify what I see when to buy into a falling market. When the sellers has already exhausted their selling activities. It happened after London close. Most of the trading opportunities are selling for the whole day. This morning the market again sold into an overvalued price in weak market. {image}
thanks Bwilliam for sharing and guiding us, i always ask my self is it the price that tells volume to come and go or is it the volume that tells price to move around? what are your thoughts.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,724
  • Jul 8, 2021 11:04pm Jul 8, 2021 11:04pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} thank Bwilliam for sharing, i always ask my self is it the price that tells volume to come and go or is it the volume that tells price to move around? what are your thoughts.
In rising market, down volume is smaller than up volume vv. Wait for collapse in volume to make entry. It happens all the time in all TF. One trade a day is all you need to make money.
Know what you trade
  • #1,725
  • Jul 8, 2021 11:04pm Jul 8, 2021 11:04pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's how I objectively quantify what I see when to buy into a falling market - when the sellers has already exhausted their selling activities. It happened after London close. Most of the trading opportunities are selling for the whole day. This morning the market again sold into an overvalued price in weak market whenever price approach 1.3800. {image}
Hey BWiliam,

I am sorry. I thought you traded longer term. The chart you posted was a 4 hour. I see that you trade m15. Disregard my previous post.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,726
  • Jul 8, 2021 11:08pm Jul 8, 2021 11:08pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} In rising market, down volume is smaller than up volume vv. Wait for collapse in volume to make entry. It happens all the time in all TF. One trade a day is all you need to make money.
My question was different.

i feel its the price that moves the volume not the volume, yet volume is a good confirmation.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,727
  • Jul 8, 2021 11:12pm Jul 8, 2021 11:12pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} My question was different. i feel its the price that moves the volume not the volume, yet volume is a good confirmation.
RickM asked me the same question here. He gave the answer.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13464244
Know what you trade
  • #1,728
  • Jul 8, 2021 11:18pm Jul 8, 2021 11:18pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} RickM asked me the same question here. He gave the answer. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13464244
going to be interesting read! thanks
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,729
  • Jul 8, 2021 11:21pm Jul 8, 2021 11:21pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Hey gepards! 1. Sitting in drawdown longer than a week is not acceptable. 2. 35% drawdown is also not acceptable. If you had that much draw, you sat through a deep pullback. Why not trade it? 3. Backtesting is the bane of all traders. You are modelling the past and expecting the future will be the same. I would like to talk about it. It might be helpful to us as traders. Are you willing?
As one of the more respectable traders on here, I never have any qualms with either of us being wrong.

I disagree about backtesting; surely, any trading experience comes from time in the market and that information is displayed on the charts in a consolidated form. I believe the problem with backtesting isn't necessarily that it provides the wrong data so much as that it will often provide false-positives on many invalid assumptions and confirmation biases out of mere coincidences. Many invalid strategies will work until they don't and, as always, the issue is the ability to discern when that is. Backtesting does reveal when a strategy went wrong; it just doesn't necessarily confirm that a strategy will be right.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,730
  • Jul 8, 2021 11:32pm Jul 8, 2021 11:32pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey BWiliam, I am sorry. I thought you traded longer term. The chart you posted was a 4 hour. I see that you trade m15. Disregard my previous post. - Ric
Hi riclater, it works the same on all timeframes. By this I mean the math is the same. Buy a rising market, sell a falling market. It depends on what tf suit your personal schedule and psychologically the trader like the "pace" of the trade. 50 scalping trades a day is a lot of hectic trading to do. A slower once a week trade may suit other folks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guh4.PNG Size: 32 KB
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  • #1,731
  • Jul 9, 2021 12:36am Jul 9, 2021 12:36am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Why not? If you know what you are doing, you can make a lot of money. There is always a buyer on the other side of a trade in a falling market. Does every buyer lose under such conditions? No. The majority of them will lose, but few will win. Why not strive be among the few who are able to successfully trade in both directions? It's not comfortable trading like this, but it is possible.
Hi here2there, according to the math theory, buying a falling market or selling a rising market is trading at the long and/or fat tail of the distribution. The stddev is unlimited.
Know what you trade
  • #1,732
  • Jul 9, 2021 12:54am Jul 9, 2021 12:54am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} As one of the more respectable traders on here, I never have any qualms with either of us being wrong. I disagree about backtesting; surely, any trading experience comes from time in the market and that information is displayed on the charts in a consolidated form. I believe the problem with backtesting isn't necessarily that it provides the wrong data so much as that it will often provide false-positives on many invalid assumptions and confirmation biases out of mere coincidences. Many invalid strategies will work until they don't and,...
And here we come to real ugly truth about day trading..

If day traders would implement their trading strategy in an EA and backtest some 10 years past... Most of who trade 1M or 5M or even 1H charts would see they wipe out entire accounts.

Without proper backtesting day traders can live in illusion that their "structure" is safe.

And then those who code an EA, backtest it and hope that 1 particular setup they found will profit in future... Thats wrong using of backteting too.. Learn about fluctuations and adjust your approach accordingly.
  • #1,733
  • Jul 9, 2021 1:01am Jul 9, 2021 1:01am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} As one of the more respectable traders on here, I never have any qualms with either of us being wrong. I disagree about backtesting; surely, any trading experience comes from time in the market and that information is displayed on the charts in a consolidated form. I believe the problem with backtesting isn't necessarily that it provides the wrong data so much as that it will often provide false-positives on many invalid assumptions and confirmation biases out of mere coincidences. Many invalid strategies will work until they don't and,...
I think I made a poor post on backtesting. Your post is more accurate. Backtesting is the bane of traders because traders tend to curve fit. Then they go lambo shopping and surfing the web for the next sugar baby they will put in that imaginary car that they just bought with their imaginary strategy using imaginary money from a heavily curve fitted back test.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,734
  • Jul 9, 2021 1:23am Jul 9, 2021 1:23am
Quoting kk100
.How About CrowdSourcing. They Allways tell, retails can't change Markets, Lets Try ! Tell Pairs which would be most best our test. At least Brokers/ECN should be group of bs.. who tell they have 20 liq providers. If goldman sachs told in bloomberg they will drop liq providers less, how these lousy brokers telll they have enough money keep them up.
Hi kK100

I have done that with a few buddies three years ago to prove liquidity is thin. We as a group brought AUDNZD a few minutes after day open and got a half a pip movement when the spread was large.
Admittedly we loss our money on spread but we did nudge price just a small bit.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,735
  • Jul 9, 2021 1:39am Jul 9, 2021 1:39am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi TimeTells Here is my Chart and the action and the key signals were the Volume resistance lines telling us to Sell. These are formed by Absorption where Buyers are unable to move price upwards due to Selling pressure. The volume at the bottom was 8 times normal levels over the average GBPUSD M1 candles so that is also very important. Another point and one strategy I spend my day doing is Selling on Bid imbalance (yellow numbers) or Buying in Ask imbalance (white numbers) The basic no lose strategy should always be - TRADE AGAINST COLLAPSING...
Hi @RickM, which porgram/platform is it?

regards.
  • #1,736
  • Edited 2:05am Jul 9, 2021 1:41am | Edited 2:05am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi riclater The beauty of day trading is at the end of the trading day, you are flat. No open positions that big players can attempt to hunt down your stop loss while you sleep. The line that rich people make money while you sleep doesn’t run true with professional day traders. I can’t stomach the fear of opening up my trading platform over night to find I loss money while I slept. I can stomach sleeping well after a profitable days trading with pips in the bank and my equity SAFE. Cheers
Hi RickM, this is scalping the 1m chart in a falling market.

Edit - actually first pic is swing, 2nd pic is scalp fifo. Btw I don't scalp.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gum1.PNG Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gum1b.PNG Size: 23 KB
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  • #1,737
  • Jul 9, 2021 2:37am Jul 9, 2021 2:37am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I NEVER average down. One signal one entry with fixed stop loss and tp placed by the EA at time of entry. Price either hit SL or 15pips tp. If there's no 15pips tp no point execute trade.
Quoting BWilliam
I buy when I believe
Quoting BWilliam
How I calculate price level to measure over/undervaluation is again a core belief. Nobody do it the same like me. Its an individual thing that cannot be given to some one else.
You are so unique, and your calculations are so unique. 100% that you are using the hidden invisible data that we don't have access to. You spent years of research to create multi timeframe tick volume based histogram. Got it. Now I'll call you The Master.

Please do not tell us what is behind the curtain. We are not ready to find out the truth. We are still too stupid and unprepared to understand. Please don't stop to post the real truth of trading.
Observer effect
  • #1,738
  • Jul 9, 2021 3:42am Jul 9, 2021 3:42am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {quote} {quote} You are so unique, and your calculations are so unique. 100% that you are using the hidden invisible data that we don't have access to. You spent years of research to create multi timeframe tick volume based histogram. Got it. Now I'll call you The Master. Please do not tell us what is behind the curtain. We are not ready to find out the truth. We are still too stupid and unprepared to understand. Please don't stop to post the real truth of trading.
You have the wrong attitude. There's no master trader. You tend to hero worship certain particular traders. You know who the master traders you worship, I don't have to name them. Then you pick quarrels on forum with other posters sounding bitter. Pls ignore my posts since it cause you so much hurt and pain, not sure why. There's a ignore button, pls use it. For your sake. And don't respond to my posts pls. Don't want to get involve with your drama.
Know what you trade
  • #1,739
  • Jul 9, 2021 4:02am Jul 9, 2021 4:02am
Quoting BWilliam
Pls ignore my posts
No! Please let me follow you! I want to reveal your secret magic approach about tick volume data. This is so unique and interesting that I just can't walk away from this!
Observer effect
  • #1,740
  • Jul 9, 2021 5:56am Jul 9, 2021 5:56am
What is the link to his data?
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
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