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The brutal truth of day trading

  • #1,701
  • Jul 7, 2021 3:13am Jul 7, 2021 3:13am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I NEVER average down. One signal one entry with fixed stop loss and tp placed by the EA at time of entry. Price either hit SL or 15pips tp. If there's no 15pips tp no point execute trade.
Do you really trade?
Observer effect
  • #1,702
  • Jul 7, 2021 8:38pm Jul 7, 2021 8:38pm
Quoting joyny
Averaging is just a tool. If have SL for all opened levels total drawdown then it is safe approach. Problem is when all levels must be closed. You still have money on account and you can afford to open 3 more levels but you have to close all and accept loses.
There must still be a quantified definition what the "stoploss" is for every trade signal. By this I mean the cost averaging "stoplosses" must be quantified. The cost averaging "stoploss" basket must not exceed a certain predetermined fixed percentage of balance/equity. The recommended approach is to code this math in a trade management EA. And disallow live market manual discretionary intervention.

Very very very few traders practice a complete math based objective quantified approach in all aspects of their trading where possible. Many don't even understand what this means.

The reason is if they did that the result is no better than 50/50 which shows no trading edge.
Know what you trade
  • #1,703
  • Edited 2:21pm Jul 8, 2021 10:48am | Edited 2:21pm
.How About CrowdSourcing.

They Allways tell, retails can't change Markets, Lets Try !

Tell Pairs which would be most best our test.

At least Brokers/ECN should be group of bs.. who tell they have 20 liq providers.
If goldman sachs told in bloomberg they will drop liq providers less, how these lousy brokers telll they have enough money keep
them up.
  • #1,704
  • Jul 8, 2021 1:40pm Jul 8, 2021 1:40pm
.
  • #1,705
  • Jul 8, 2021 2:47pm Jul 8, 2021 2:47pm
It is my opinion, that to be a 'day trader', one must be willing to hedge the previous Daily candle using pending/limit orders. Most people wouldn't be able to trade like this, because they wouldn't be able to cope with the DD, nor the psychology of putting on a trade that goes against the flow/trend. It takes guts to trade like this, as well as good money management.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,706
  • Jul 8, 2021 3:52pm Jul 8, 2021 3:52pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Ric You made some great points in your post, but one in particular I feel is the reason most traders fail. Truth is they never specialize in anything so are very average in everything. If you are average, its going to be very hard to make consistent profits as a trader. As an example, I trade just one time frame, one pair, one strategy. So I trade the M1 chart only without any higher time frame references looking at trading only liquidity imbalances on EURUSD. On occasions I will trade imbalances on AUDUSD & Gold but 95% its EURUSD. My...
Hey RickM,

Very similar to the person I mentioned who trades the GBP/USD exclusively. He does so on the 5 min chart. He lives in the UK and has a multi-screen set up with live news, charts and live chat with other traders he knows and trusts that trade similar to his style.

I find that folks who fall into the day trade camp fare better if the do focus and specialize in one or two markets/pairs. Again, no wrong way to trade as long as you make money. I do not have the stomach anymore for day trading. I found my sweet spot in higher time-frames.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,707
  • Jul 8, 2021 3:57pm Jul 8, 2021 3:57pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} They do specialize in something. Excuses. I learned this very young: Excuses are tools of the incompetent that build monuments to nothing, and those that excel in them seldom achieve anything else.
Hey jmn5611,

So very true. I find that not just in trading, but in life in general. Most people have a excuse on why something didn't work out or why they cant do something. Then they look to others to fix it so they can achieve something. Trading is a very lonely and sobering profession. Only one person to blame for fails. Most people can not handle that they are responsible alone for everything.

-Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,708
  • Jul 8, 2021 5:14pm Jul 8, 2021 5:14pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Hey gepards! 1. Sitting in drawdown longer than a week is not acceptable. 2. 35% drawdown is also not acceptable. If you had that much draw, you sat through a deep pullback. Why not trade it? 3. Backtesting is the bane of all traders. You are modelling the past and expecting the future will be the same. I would like to talk about it. It might be helpful to us as traders. Are you willing?
Hey jmn5611,

Back-testing is not used correctly by most people I have noticed. In my opinion it serves one purpose. To check the validity of a trading style or method. That is it. One can check the likelihood if a method or style can be profitable in the future. Back-testing does not account for real world issues like slippage, trader psychology and real world spread and commissions.

The only way to test is in the real world. Live, real money. Period.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,709
  • Jul 8, 2021 5:22pm Jul 8, 2021 5:22pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey RickM, Very similar to the person I mentioned who trades the GBP/USD exclusively. He does so on the 5 min chart. He lives in the UK and has a multi-screen set up with live news, charts and live chat with other traders he knows and trusts that trade similar to his style. I find that folks who fall into the day trade camp fare better if the do focus and specialize in one or two markets/pairs. Again, no wrong way to trade as long as you make money. I do not have the stomach anymore for day trading. I found my sweet spot in higher time-frames....
Hi riclater

The beauty of day trading is at the end of the trading day, you are flat.
No open positions that big players can attempt to hunt down your stop loss while you sleep.
The line that rich people make money while you sleep doesn’t run true with professional day traders.

I can’t stomach the fear of opening up my trading platform over night to find I loss money while I slept.
I can stomach sleeping well after a profitable days trading with pips in the bank and my equity SAFE.


Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,710
  • Jul 8, 2021 5:49pm Jul 8, 2021 5:49pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi riclater The beauty of day trading is at the end of the trading day, you are flat. No open positions that big players can attempt to hunt down your stop loss while you sleep. The line that rich people make money while you sleep doesn’t run true with professional day traders. I can’t stomach the fear of opening up my trading platform over night to find I loss money while I slept. I can stomach sleeping well after a profitable days trading with pips in the bank and my equity SAFE. Cheers
Hey RickM,

And that my friend is why trading is awesome. You trade the way you want, I trade the way I want. You are not wrong as long as you make money. I am not wrong either. You can not convince me that day trading is the best way to trade because I have done it. I don't like it. Does not work for me. I can not convince you that swing trading is better, you have done it and it does not work for you. That is my point. No wrong way to trade as long as you make money.

I just noticed that your pic a lion, and your name is Rick?

Pips Up!

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #1,711
  • Edited 9:28pm Jul 8, 2021 7:47pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey RickM, And that my friend is why trading is awesome. You trade the way you want, I trade the way I want. You are not wrong as long as you make money. I am not wrong either. You can not convince me that day trading is the best way to trade because I have done it. I don't like it. Does not work for me. I can not convince you that swing trading is better, you have done it and it does not work for you. That is my point. No wrong way to trade as long as you make money. I just noticed that your pic a lion, and your name is Rick? Pips Up! -...
There's only one market, the same price move on our chart. The difference is how each of us see this price move. It's an individual thing that we can't give to someone else. It's our core belief about this market that makes us push the trade button to risk our money, not other people's money. We invest both time and money and we do this trading activity according to our core belief.

My core belief is value speculation. I buy when I believe at some calculated price level it's undervalued, sell when it's overvalued. How I calculate price level to measure over/undervaluation is again a core belief. Nobody do it the same like me. Its an individual thing that cannot be given to some one else. We all do it differently.

However, if you read this forum carefully you realise most members copy from someone else. Their core belief is based on someone else idea. It is borrowed, adopted and adapted. It did not come from their research work and their brain. It's someone else's work, not their own.

More importantly, its not objective and quantified. Truth is it takes years of research work to mathematically quantify an original idea. Quantify the details. If ideas are objectively quantified you find most of them don't give a trading edge.

So, on this forum you get mostly not objective and not quantified ideas. Not much research work done. All you get is trading results(TE) as proof of concept in place of actual research empirical data. If you look at the details you see a lot of ad hoc discretionary live market decision(guessing) which is not practised consistently. The devil is in the detail during live market.

If you frequent the casinos you see the same thing happen. Gamblers place bets base on their core belief. Some gamblers are seen as gurus and they make money, just like this forum. They have their regular followers too. Their ideas work and the proof is the money they make. Just like the TE in Forex. Gambling forums read the same like Forex Factory. People are gambling, they just don't realise it. This is the brutal truth.
Know what you trade
  • #1,712
  • Jul 8, 2021 8:55pm Jul 8, 2021 8:55pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} There's only one market, the same price move on our chart. The difference is how each of us see this price move. It's an individual thing that we can't give to someone else. It's our core belief about this market that makes us push the trade button to risk our money, not other people's money. We invest both time and money and we do this trading activity according to our core belief. My core belief is value speculation. I buy when I believe at some calculated price level it's undervalued, sell when it's overvalued. How I calculate price level...
Hi BW

There comes a time when all research is done, we have formed out beliefs about the market so we need to act.

We need patience aggression to be profitable and we must have unbelievable faith in our trading methods. No doubts or excuses.
No more research.

Just bloody follow our strategy and push the trade button without questioning anything.

Gambling?
I fail to see how a trader that consistently executes multiple trades a night and increases their equity almost every single night is a gambler.
A trading edge is not a gamble, it’s about high probability outcomes where the house normally losses.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,713
  • Jul 8, 2021 9:07pm Jul 8, 2021 9:07pm
Quoting RickM
Just bloody follow our strategy and push the trade button without questioning anything.
Correct. My point is how many traders actually objectively quantify their trading process?

The professional gamblers in the casino objectively quantify their gambling strategies. Tested over millions of outcomes. That's how they know their gambling edge.

If Forex traders don't objectively quantify their strategy, they are gambling, just like in a casino.

Only in Forex trading forum, objective quantify is not the standard to determine the edge. Its worse than the gambling forums.
Know what you trade
  • #1,714
  • Jul 8, 2021 9:25pm Jul 8, 2021 9:25pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi riclater The beauty of day trading is at the end of the trading day, you are flat. No open positions that big players can attempt to hunt down your stop loss while you sleep. The line that rich people make money while you sleep doesn’t run true with professional day traders. I can’t stomach the fear of opening up my trading platform over night to find I loss money while I slept. I can stomach sleeping well after a profitable days trading with pips in the bank and my equity SAFE. Cheers
Money is made by sitting not trading.
  • #1,715
  • Jul 8, 2021 10:14pm Jul 8, 2021 10:14pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} There's only one market, the same price move on our chart. The difference is how each of us see this price move. It's an individual thing that we can't give to someone else. It's our core belief about this market that makes us push the trade button to risk our money, not other people's money. We invest both time and money and we do this trading activity according to our core belief. My core belief is value speculation. I buy when I believe at some calculated price level it's undervalued, sell when it's overvalued. How I calculate price level...

This week GU value is on balance. Maybe today is a drop and Monday is rise.
  • #1,716
  • Jul 8, 2021 10:29pm Jul 8, 2021 10:29pm
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} This week GU value is on balance. Maybe today is a drop and Monday is rise.
GU has been on a falling market for the last 5 weeks. Last 3 days this week it has fallen. Any rise in price is an overvaluation for sellers. That's a lot of trading days of selling. NFP pushed the price into overvalued territory. Why buy into a falling market ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guw.PNG Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gud.PNG Size: 52 KB
Know what you trade
  • #1,717
  • Jul 8, 2021 10:44pm Jul 8, 2021 10:44pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}....Why buy into a falling market ? {image} {image}
Why not? If you know what you are doing, you can make a lot of money. There is always a buyer on the other side of a trade in a falling market. Does every buyer lose under such conditions? No. The majority of them will lose, but few will win. Why not strive be among the few who are able to successfully trade in both directions? It's not comfortable trading like this, but it is possible.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,718
  • Jul 8, 2021 10:44pm Jul 8, 2021 10:44pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} GU has been on a falling market for the last 5 weeks. Last 3 days this week it has fallen. Any rise in price is an overvaluation for sellers. That's a lot of trading days of selling. NFP pushed the price into overvalued territory. Why buy into a falling market ? {image} {image}
- Risk off scenario, more corona vaccines available
- Evacuation from Afghanistan, these funds now free for Americans
- Dollar getting strengthen and Gold along with foreign currencies are bearish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 132 KB
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,719
  • Jul 8, 2021 10:46pm Jul 8, 2021 10:46pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Why not? If you know what you are doing, you can make a lot of money. There is always a buyer on the other side of a trade in a falling market. Does every buyer lose under such conditions? No. The majority of them will lose, but few will win. Why not strive be among the few who are able to successfully trade in both directions? It's not comfortable trading like this, but it is possible.
yes we can buy too, if one know when to buy in a selling market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: true.png Size: 105 KB
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,720
  • Jul 8, 2021 10:46pm Jul 8, 2021 10:46pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} GU has been on a falling market for the last 5 weeks. Last 3 days this week it has fallen. Any rise in price is an overvaluation for sellers. That's a lot of trading days of selling. NFP pushed the price into overvalued territory. Why buy into a falling market ? {image} {image}
Hey BWilliam,

You are trading a completely different style than RickM. He does not see what you and I see trading longer term. The attached photo is the last 2 days on the m1 chart. Imagine if it was the h4 or daily. You ask why he would buy in a falling market, and you are right, if he was trading longer TFs like we are, but he isn't. The waves he sees are different.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenShot_20210708204345.jpeg Size: 267 KB
Be humble or get humbled
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