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Attachments: The Ghillyoar System (buying highs and selling lows)
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The Ghillyoar System (buying highs and selling lows)

  • #181
  • Jun 5, 2021 2:15pm Jun 5, 2021 2:15pm
I thought that it might be fun to see how many people (apart from me) think that the basic Ghillyoar system wins.

So I have started a poll.........and hastily.... voted for myself.
  • #182
  • Jun 6, 2021 5:50pm Jun 6, 2021 5:50pm
subscribed to this thread.

One question, i try the EA provide from this thread on a demo account, but the EA wont close on a profit target. any idea why ? is it the ea just for the backtest ?
  • #183
  • Jun 7, 2021 5:56am Jun 7, 2021 5:56am
Quoting Paddy9
The Strategy Tester available with MetaTrader is of no value to a sensible trader. The longer the period of the test the less the reliability. So here is a test result for The Ghillyoar Trading System covering the last 21 years. The trading period is from 2000.01.01 to 2021.03.23 {image}
Great thread man. My question is not about strategy. Where you get history data to do backtest?
  • #184
  • Edited Jun 8, 2021 10:15am Jun 7, 2021 1:20pm | Edited Jun 8, 2021 10:15am
Quoting Cryptofunk
subscribed to this thread. One question, i try the EA provide from this thread on a demo account, but the EA wont close on a profit target. any idea why ? is it the ea just for the backtest ?
Hi Cryptofunk.............thanks for your interest in the system.

I think that the published version of Ghillyoar probably works o.k.

Please remember that Ghillyoar is working on two profit targets............... and they are different.

1. If the previous basket of trades was closed with a "basket profit" of 50$ then the target for the next basket ( i.e.the current basket) is a profit is 50$.
When the current basket of trades hits a profit of 50$, then all open trades are closed.

2. If the last bunch of trades closed at a loss...............say 200$............then Ghillyoar will be aiming for a basket of profits that
covers the previous 200$ loss....plus 50$. This device means that we are very happy to close a bunch of losing trades because there is a very high degree of
probability that Ghillyoar will eventually clear the losses ............and then add on a small profit.

I have tried countless variations to the published Ghillyoar...........some of them produce results that are not world shattering...............however over the long run, every single one made a profit.

Of course these back tests were based on freely available data which may not be entirely trustworthy.
  • #185
  • Jul 5, 2021 12:02pm Jul 5, 2021 12:02pm
One or two people have pointed out that from time to time The Ghillyoar Trading System goes a long time without opening a new trade.

Other people have beaten themselves up trying to invent a wonder exit strategy to replace rule two.

I think that there are probably people out there making money from the basic idea...............but not necessarily sharing their insights
or results with the rest of you.

For example ..........am I really the only person who opens up mt4 and places Ghillyoar on several charts at the same time ?
  • #186
  • Jul 7, 2021 10:03am Jul 7, 2021 10:03am
The Ghillyoar Trade Explorer appears on my other thread.

I opened up about 20 different charts and placed on each an E.A. that uses the original Ghillyoar logic
made available on this thread.

I have to say that I am astonished at the level of information that The Forex Factory Trade Explorer supplies.

My initial thoughts are:

1. Running multiple instances of Ghillyoar removes the problem of the E.A. becoming "stuck" without trades for extended periods.
2. It has yet to be confirmed , but I am hoping that multiple instances will help Ghillyoar to exit the market without waiting for ages as a single Ghillyoar suffers an increasing drawdown.
  • #187
  • Jul 8, 2021 4:27pm Jul 8, 2021 4:27pm
Quoting Paddy9
The Ghillyoar Trade Explorer appears on my other thread. I opened up about 20 different charts and placed on each an E.A. that uses the original Ghillyoar logic made available on this thread. I have to say that I am astonished at the level of information that The Forex Factory Trade Explorer supplies. My initial thoughts are: 1. Running multiple instances of Ghillyoar removes the problem of the E.A. becoming "stuck" without trades for extended periods. 2. It has yet to be confirmed , but I am hoping that multiple instances will help Ghillyoar to...
Hi Paddy!

Nice experiment! I have tried to find a better exit strategy but with not success. I have the system in a 1k demo account and have made $113 so far, trading EURUSD exclusively on 15min TF. More than 10% in less than two months is great!

The only issue for me is that the system has the potential for big drawdowns (unless you trade a big account with small lot sizes), maybe your experiment on multiple currencies can overcome one being in DD with the others profiting well, but also it increases the chances of more of one pair being on DD.

I'll follow your results! Thanks for sharing!
  • #188
  • Jul 8, 2021 5:03pm Jul 8, 2021 5:03pm
A third exit idea could be to close and stop trading when the equity hits a pre-defined amount, take out the profit and then start again (like a reset). Eg. say you start with a balance of $1000 and set a target of say 10% of the account. So, if the equity hits $1100. EA closes all trades and stops trading. You take out the $100, and start the EA again at $1000.
  • #189
  • Jul 10, 2021 7:18am Jul 10, 2021 7:18am
Hi, Paddy.
Very interesting Thread and method; thanks for sharing.
I attach for your kind perusal and comments, my US30-H4 screenshot with my annotations as I was not sure of the placements of the ORDERS at the time. My reason for wanting to be proficient in using your system, is not only to get to understand and practice it, but also to see if one could not perhaps see changes in direction sooner.
Thursday's entries on the left marked "A" and Friday's "B" as they were fairly similar in appearance.
First and foremost, Thursday morning opened for me with price belowe 23-EMA; therefore looking for shorts. Bottom Yellow horizontal line active only. Top Yellow just for completion sake.
3 candles later the price dropped down eventually for 70 pts (my TP +100 not reached, but closed with +50 profit)

Friday morning, 9th:
Candle marked "B" is the candle we take our readings from and in this case I drew Aqua-dotted line for LONG and SHORT with the CLOSED price in Yellow.
Long was triggered when the price cut through the 23-EMA, but this is obviously not legitimate according to my understanding of the rules.

Would you please be kind enough to help me understand the nuances of this method?

Thanking you most sincerely,
Hercs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8251e698d55601cd748251eb20f3fa6c.png Size: 32 KB
Hercs
  • #190
  • Jul 10, 2021 11:01am Jul 10, 2021 11:01am
This is an agrressive martingale ea. Are all martingale ea dangerous
  • #191
  • Jul 16, 2021 2:45pm Jul 16, 2021 2:45pm
Quoting danjuma
A third exit idea could be to close and stop trading when the equity hits a pre-defined amount, take out the profit and then start again (like a reset). Eg. say you start with a balance of $1000 and set a target of say 10% of the account. So, if the equity hits $1100. EA closes all trades and stops trading. You take out the $100, and start the EA again at $1000.
Sounds like a sensible strategy.
  • #192
  • Jul 16, 2021 3:12pm Jul 16, 2021 3:12pm
Quoting JoanGuz
{quote} Hi Paddy! Nice experiment! I have tried to find a better exit strategy but with not success.

Thanks for your post.

1. Do you know how many trades ( usually ) you have to open in order to hit your 50$..............this could be an important number


2. Do you know how many trades are open ( usually ) when you are looking at an unacceptable loss.



3. Some people might say if the floating loss is greater than "x" just close all. Call it a basket loss number.

4. Some people might say if the number of open trades is 1 then the basket loss number is x number of dollars.


5. The same people could add another rule.......if the number of open trades is 2 then the basket loss number is y number of dollars.
6. The same people could add another rule.......if the number of open trades is 3 then the basket loss number is z number of dollars.
7. The same people could add another rule.......if the number of open trades is 4 then the basket loss number is w number of dollars.
8. The same people could add another rule.......if the number of open trades is 5 then the basket loss number is V number of dollars.

etc etc
  • #193
  • Jul 16, 2021 4:46pm Jul 16, 2021 4:46pm
Quoting Hercs
Hi, Paddy. Very interesting Thread and method; thanks for sharing. I attach for your kind perusal and comments, my US30-H4 screenshot with my annotations as I was not sure of the placements of the ORDERS at the time. Hercs. {image}

Thanks for your interest in The Ghillyoar Forex System.
I am sorry to say that I do not understand your chart. Lots of horizontal lines
It looks like a 4 hour chart. The system is for a Daily Chart.

The best way to understand the system is to download it and observe it in the strategy tester mode on mt4.

That should help you to understand the nuances.

Then you can post...............and tell me how to improve the basic template.
  • #194
  • Jul 16, 2021 5:01pm Jul 16, 2021 5:01pm
Quoting Hieuftmo
This is an agrressive martingale ea. Are all martingale ea dangerous
Hi,

Thanks for taking a look at my Ghillyoar Forex System.

I am guessing that you don't like it ............which is ok.

In the early days of the thread there was a discussion going backwards and forwards between people who were
trying to decide if it was a Martingale System or not.

After just a few exchanges the people who had stated that it was a Martingale stood down .
  • #195
  • Sep 8, 2021 3:42am Sep 8, 2021 3:42am
Time for an update.

My idea was to demo trade Ghillyoar on a large number of pairs at the same time.

I started off with Pepperstone.......we were in profit ......and then after 30 days they froze the account. It seems that
Pepperstone demo accounts have a life span of 30 days. Not much good for my purposes.

Then I tried an Oanda demo account.....we were in profit ..........but then Oanda froze the account because Ghillyoar was trying
to place trades that are not allowed by American forex traders.

Forty six hours ago I opened a demo account witm XM.
At this early stage, we are in profit.............fingers crossed.
  • #196
  • Sep 16, 2021 6:40am Sep 16, 2021 6:40am
My Ghillyoar Basket Trading experiment is still up and running.

I have placed a Trade Explorer at the top of this page...........so anyone who is interested can
follow our progress. Hopefully you can all see it.

So far the Ghillyoar E.A. seems to be working..........it is opening and closing trades according to my rules.

Because the E.A. has been planted on approx 20 charts we are getting plenty of trades. I think that we are averaging
about 4 new trades a day.

As expected Ghillyoar is opening trend following trades and slowly but surely increasing the account's profits.

We are.... of course......... only just at the very start of this experiment........however, so far I am enjoying the ride.
  • #197
  • Jul 21, 2022 8:37am Jul 21, 2022 8:37am
Quoting Paddy9
{quote} Hi, Thanks for taking a look at my Ghillyoar Forex System. I am guessing that you don't like it ............which is ok. In the early days of the thread there was a discussion going backwards and forwards between people who were trying to decide if it was a Martingale System or not. After just a few exchanges the people who had stated that it was a Martingale stood down .
Sorry for beating the dead dog with $2000 in his pocket, but something just hit me. This is a martingale system, because time=money. If you want to recover without increasing lot size, then you'll have to wait a bit longer. With lot martingale you hope you don't run out of money, and with time martingale you hope you don't run out of time. Is time on your side?
1.02^200
  • #198
  • Jul 29, 2022 12:48pm Jul 29, 2022 12:48pm
This thread is probably one of the most under evaluated thread here on forex factory.
I would be happy to know what happened to paddy's experiment.
  • #199
  • Jul 29, 2022 8:32pm Jul 29, 2022 8:32pm
Quoting neosqualls
This thread is probably one of the most under evaluated thread here on forex factory. I would be happy to know what happened to paddy's experiment.
When the TE is deleted another one isn't posted then it means the experiment failed.
  • #200
  • Jul 30, 2022 6:16am Jul 30, 2022 6:16am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} When the TE is deleted another one isn't posted then it means the experiment failed.
Maybe ... Maybe not ... Why would you let a trade explorer open if nobody is interested ? Let's hope paddy is on his way to success !
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