AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Majors

AceTraderFx Jun 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1925
Euro's retreat from 1.1975 (Fri) to 1.1903 yesterday strongly suggests early correction from Jun's 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1848 has ended there, however, subsequent rebound in New York on falling U.S. yields would bring sideways swings before another fall, however, reckon 1.1848 should remain intact.

On the upside, only a daily close above Mon's 1.1944 high prolongs consolidation and may head back towards 1.1975, loss of upward momentum would cap price below res at 1.2006.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan unemployment rate, retail sales.
France ILO unemployment rate, consumer confidence, UK nationwide house price, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP.
U.S. redbook, monthly home price index, consumer confidence.

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AceTraderFx Jun 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.72
Although dollar's fall from last Thursday's near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday, then 110.46 today suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.

On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to our EI page for details) n we have Richmond Fed Barkin is scheduled to speak at 13:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jun 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1903
Although euro's break of indicated sup at 1.1882 to 1.1879 yesterday suggests correction from June's 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1848 has ended, subsequent short-covering rebound due to intra-day selloff in U.S. yields would bring consolidation before prospect of another fall, 'loss of downward momentum' should keep price above 1.1805/10.

Only above 1.1939/44 res prolongs volatile trading above 1.1848 and may risk stronger gain to 1.1965/75.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Japan consumer confidence, construction orders, housing starts, industrial output.
Germany import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, Italy producer prices, CPI, Germany EU HICP.
U.K. BRC shop price index, GDP, current account, nationwide house price, France consumer spending, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage app, ADP employment change, Chicago PMI, pending home sales and Canada GDP, producer prices.

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AceTraderFx Jun 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.50
Although dollar's fall from last Thursday's near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday, then 110.46 today suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above 111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.

On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to ADP private payrolls ahead of Friday's key jobs report, a higher-than-expected number (forecast is 600k) will lead to renewed usd buying. we also have fed's Bostic and Barkin scheduled to speak later today.

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AceTraderFx July 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1845
As euro has fallen after staging a short-covering rebound from Thursday's 11-week low of 1.1838 to 1.1884 (New York), suggesting recent decline is en route towards next chart obj. at 1.1786, however, reckon 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) should remain intact.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1884 signals temporary low is in place and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1944.

Data to be released on Friday:
Germany retail sales, France budget balance, EU producer prices.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, international trade balance, goods trade balance, durables ex-defense , durable goods, durables ex-transport, factory orders, Canada building permits, trade balance, exports, imports and Markit manufacturing PMI.

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AceTraderFx July 02: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.48
The greenback's rise above June's near 15-month peak at 111.11 on cross-selling in jpy to 111.65 in Asia today suggests Medium Term upmove has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 111.60/70, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 111.80/90 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 110.75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.43 but 109.95/00 should remain intact.

T.G.I.F., market waits U.S. June non-farm payrolls and unemployment, we also have a slew of other eco. data but these will be largely overlooked by traders, please refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx July 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1858
Despite resumption of recent decline to a fresh 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1808 in post-NFP New York, intra-day rebound to 1.1874 due to broad-based long liquidation in the greenback suggests temporary low is made and 1-2 days of consolidation is in store, as long as res at 1.1909/11 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1838 would bring re-test of 1.1808.

Only a daily close above 1.1911 would risk stronger correction towards 1.1944, however, reckon key res at 1.1975 should cap upside.

Data to be released later:
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, building permits, retail sales, Japan services PMI, coincident index, leading indicator, China Caixin services PMI.
France industrial output, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, Sentix index, U.K. Markit services PMI.
U.S. market holiday on Monday.

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AceTraderFx July 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.85
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 15-month peak at 111.65 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff to 110.96 in hectic post-NFP trading on the back of soft U.S. unemployment data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day break below aforesaid support would encourage stronger retracement to 110.40/43, however, support at 110.22 should contain downside and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 111.40/50 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 111.65, break would extend to 111.90/00 later.

As today is Independence Day in the U.S., there is no release of U.S. eco. data. BOJ Gov. Kuroda will deliver a brief speech at the bank's quarterly regional branch managers' meeting.

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AceTraderFx July 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1863
As 1.1880 yesterday has capped euro's rebound from last Friday's 11-week trough at 1.1808, consolidation with downside bias is in store, below 1.1808 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1762/65.

Only a daily close above 1.1884 res may risk stronger retracement to 1.1909/11 but reckon res at 1.0944 should cap upside.

On the data front, germany will kick off with germany's industrial orders, then Zew eco. sentiment n current condition n later EU's retail sales n Zew survey expectations. We have a nu,ber of ECB officials scheduled to speak, pls refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx July 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 1.1849
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 15-month peak at 111.65 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff to 110.96 in hectic post-NFP trading on the back of soft U.S. unemployment data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day break below aforesaid support would encourage stronger retracement to 110.40/43, however, support at 110.22 should contain downside and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 111.40/50 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 111.65, break would extend to 111.90/00 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand NZIER confidence, GDT price index, Japan all household spending, RBA rate decision.
Germany industrial orders, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU retail sales, ZEW survey expectations.
U.S. Markit services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

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AceTraderFx July 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1821
Euro's intra-day selloff from 1.1894 (Europe) due to broad-based usd's buying and subsequent re-test of last Friday's 11-week trough at 1.1808 in New York suggests recent decline would pressure price towards 1.1762 ahead of release of FOMC minutes, however, near term oversold condition should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (Mar).

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1852 signals temporary low is made and risks re-test of 1.1894, break would bring stronger retracement to 1.1909/11 and possibly towards 1.1944.

On the data front, we have some second-tier eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. ECB Chair of the Supervisory Board Enria will at an event at 07:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx July 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.69
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 15-month peak at 111.65 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff to 110.96 in hectic post-NFP trading on the back of soft U.S. unemployment data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and intra-day break below aforesaid support would encourage stronger retracement to 110.40/43, however, support at 110.22 should contain downside and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 111.40/50 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 111.65, break would extend to 111.90/00 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia AIG services index.
Germany industrial output, U.K. Halifax house prices, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, redbook, JOLTUS job openings and Canada Ivey PM.

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AceTraderFx July 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.86
The greenback's intra-day selloff below yesterday's low at 110.40 on active safe-haven jpy buying due to selloff in global stocks and U.S. futures suggests decline from July's 15-month peak at 111.65 remains in progress and further weakness to 109.20/30 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 109.00 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 110.40 would indicate a temporary low has been made instead and risk would increase for a stronger retracement to 110.80/85.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan current account, trade balance, Eco watchers outlook, Eco watchers current.
U.K. RICS housing price balance, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada leading index, housing starts, U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims.

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AceTraderFx July 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1847
Yesterday's impressive rally from 1.1784 (Asia) to as high as 1.1867 in New York signals recent decline has made a temporary low at Thur's 3-month trough at 1.1782 and as long as 1.1808 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1894, reckon 1.1939/44 should hold.

Only a daily close below 1.1808 suggests correction has ended, then price will be en route to 1.1762 early next week.

The only eco. data due out is Italy's trade balance n industrial output. There is 3-day G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Venice, Italy starting today, pay attention to comment by ECB officials esp speeches by ECB President Lagarde (pls refer to our EI page for details).

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AceTraderFx July 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.04
The greenback's intra-day selloff on Thursday below Wednesday's low at 110.40 to 109.54 on active safe-haven jpy buying due to selloff in global stocks and U.S. futures suggests decline from July's 15-month peak at 111.65 remains in progress and further weakness to 109.20/30 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 109.00 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 110.40 would indicate a temporary low has been made instead and risk would increase for a stronger retracement to 110.80/85.

Data to be released on Friday:
China PPI, CPI, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance.
Italy industrial output, Canada employment change, unemployment rate.
U.S. wholesales inventories and wholesales sales.

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AceTraderFx July 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1870
Euro's gain to 1.1881 in late New York Friday due to return of risk sentiment on rebound in global stocks suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at last Thursday's 3-month trough at 1.1782 and re-test of last week's high at 1.1894 (Tuesday) is now envisaged, near term overbought condition would cap price below minor res at 1.1944 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1826 (Friday's low) signals correction is over and risks weakness towards 1.1808 later.

Data to be released later today:
New Zealand retail sales, Japan corporate goods price, machinery orders.
Canada leading index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx July 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.12
Dollar's rally from last Thursday's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.27 in European morning today suggests first leg of correction from July's 15-month peak at 111.65 has ended and intra-day cross-inspired retreat in tandem with U.S. yields would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 110.81.

Only a daily close below 109.86 signals recovery is over and extends said decline towards next daily chart objective at 109.20.

There is no eco. data due out in the U.S., however, we have NY Fed President Williams n Minneapolis Fed Present Kaskari speaking at 13:30GMT n 16:00GMT respectively.

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AceTraderFx July 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1865
Euro's early rally from last Wednesday's 3-month trough of 1.1782 to 1.1881 (Friday) suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and despite retreat to 1.1837 at New York open on Monday, subsequent rebound has retained near term upside bias for a stronger retracement, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1944.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1826 signals correction has ended, then price would head back towards 1.1782 later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand food price index, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, China exports, imports, trade balance.
U.K BRC retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price, France CPI.
U.S. CPI, redbook and Federal budget.

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AceTraderFx July 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.33
Dollar's rally from last Thursday's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.27 in European morning today suggests first leg of correction from July's 15-month peak at 111.65 has ended and intra-day cross-inspired retreat in tandem with U.S. yields would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 110.81.

Only a daily close below 109.86 signals recovery is over and extends said decline towards next daily chart objective at 109.20.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
U.K. BRC retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price, France CPI.
U.S. CPI, redbook and Federal budget.

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AceTraderFx July 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1775
Yesterday's break of previous July's 1.1782 low to 1.1773 following intra-day 'wild' swings in New York session suggests price is en route towards 2021 bottom at 1.1705 but break there needed to retain weakly bearishness for further losses later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1837 signals temporary low is in place, then risk would shift to upside for stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.1880/90.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
China exports, imports, trade balance, Australia consumer sentiment, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output, DCLG house price index, France market holiday, EU industrial production.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, PPI. Canada manufacturing sales and BoC interest rate decision.

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