Happy with my trade, closing at half now
- #16,342
- Jun 16, 2021 3:06pm Jun 16, 2021 3:06pm
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,597 Posts
Interesting. What do you think is likely to happen next?
Sentiment for USDCAD (from FXSSI)
USDCAD 4HR Chart
Sentiment for USDCAD (from FXSSI)
USDCAD 4HR Chart
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
- #16,343
- Jun 16, 2021 3:46pm Jun 16, 2021 3:46pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,567 Posts
Interesting. What do you think is likely to happen next? Sentiment for USDCAD (from FXSSI) USDCAD 4HR Chart
Traders are long USDCAD because they have been calling for a bottom or a turn or crystal balling it, whatever, for months now
So there is a turn, traders are finally "right" - of course, it should show more longs than short right?
It's just logic. Except now general consensus is that we should do the opposite of everyone else?
I think it boils down to the fact they can't portray when and how long (pun ) these traders have been long or short.
As Wayne McDonnell says, I'm long term LONG and short term SHORT
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
- #16,344
- Jun 16, 2021 4:29pm Jun 16, 2021 4:29pm
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,597 Posts
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
- #16,345
- Jun 16, 2021 4:52pm Jun 16, 2021 4:52pm
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,508 Posts
Be humble or be humbled.
- #16,346
- Jun 16, 2021 5:01pm Jun 16, 2021 5:01pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,567 Posts
{quote} Indeed, the idea with sentiment is to do the opposite of the herd. We do the opposite because the majority of traders are usually on the wrong side of the market. But that doesn't mean we buy as soon as we see the majority selling, or that we sell as soon as we see the majority buying. Rather, we wait. And while we are waiting, we are maintaining a bias against what the herd is doing. This is where Technical Analysis comes into play (our edge). It's about finding the balance between fundamentals and technicals.
And are you saying Sentiment is Fundamental data?
I think I will just do what I usually do, read the sentiment, then think, yeah that would be right, and carry on simply reading my charts.
And I see USD strength on all cross-pairs ATM.
Cheers
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
Interesting. What do you think is likely to happen next? Sentiment for USDCAD (from FXSSI) {image} USDCAD 4HR Chart {image}
The reason why most traders lose money is that the MM need to make profits too and they can only do so when trading against the herd!! Believe it or not, if they do not do this, then they would cease to be and there would be no market at all (atleast a smooth market where you get filled instantly).
When you open a long position in an instrument, the MM are taking a short. If X number of people are opening a long position, and Y number of people are opening a short position then the MM are X/Y positioned. Its a bit more complex than that ofcourse because there are buy stops, sell stops, buy limits and sell limits in the mix too. It also depends on volumes of X and Y.
Nonetheless, I wish it was as simple as just taking a trade against the herd and always winning. Positions can change in any moment of time. I believe that the current FOMC USD rally is to hunt out USD short stops before MM takes the USD lower...
- #16,354
- Jun 18, 2021 6:54am Jun 18, 2021 6:54am
- Joined Apr 2019 | Status: Trader | 3,132 Posts
#USDCAD / Weekly, Daily & H4 
- #16,360
- Jun 24, 2021 11:11am Jun 24, 2021 11:11am
- Joined Nov 2020 | Status: Trader | 2,850 Posts
In tea leaves we trust!