100 Trades Analysis

So here's another thread I want to start of a system that I have been using for a while. It's been good and I am ready to record 100 trades on here and analyze its results.

The different parameters I would post include:
1. trade #
2. pair
3. short/long
4. s/l
5. original pips risked
6. net pips after closing
7. R (net pips/original pips risked or 6/5)
8. number of winning/losing trades

After 100 trades we compile all the data and see how well this system goes.

This is from a live account from the Oanda broker

ps. I won't post any charts cause I'm lazy.


UPDATE 8/27/17

This journal will be used to document trades/share live experimental and main account TEs. I may also post charts here from time to time. I'm reviving this journal to keep my trading stuff apart from my visual lifestyle postings in the other journal.

Disclaimer

**My trading month always end on a Friday of the last week of the month**
**Purpose of this journal is merely to share results of live experimental and main trading, not to divulge in systems or strategies**
**Any request to teach,share signals, or manage money will result in ban from the thread**
**Posting on anything that hints of arguments will also result in ban from thread**

Trade #1
LONG
GBPUSD @ 1.9044
S/L: 1.8960
Risk Pips: 84 pips

Trade #2
LONG
GBPJPY @ 224.53
S/L: 223.66
Risk Pips: 87 pips

Market to Moving Car Analogy

So I remember a saying (not sure if it was from here) that a trader is like a passenger in a moving car facing the back windshield.

The driver/car is the market itself. It determines whichever direction it wants to go. The trader doesn't know what the driver is thinking, nor what the driver is seeing since the trader is only able to look what is behind the car.

Many things exist in the environment or on the roads that might affect the driver's route. Things like speed bumps, oil slicks, traffic jam, tree branches on the road, rainstorm are all examples of these 'obstacles'.

These obstacles can then affect the driver's mentality. For example, he may drive faster on an empty road or he may slow down during a thunderstorm. In addition, the driver might have different moods throughout his driving experience.

As the passenger, he can't see where the driver is 'going', but he knows where the driver has 'been'. All he can do is predict the future direction by the hints given in his viewpoint, which is the backside windshield.

So in essence, traders are the pessenger in the car facing backwards. And the driver/car is the market itself. The environment and all its obstacles are all things that can affect the driver's route such as economic reports, political or social events, or just plain emotional trading.

If we take that analogy, we can see how foolish it is tryin to predict the market. The best chance we have as traders is to look at where the market (driver) has been and deduce from that future direction. If for example, the car is starting to turn and the road is curving, we know that the driver is entering a change in direction. If the the car is slowing down, speeds again, slows, then speeds again, we might say the driver may be in a traffic jam.

Similarly, we must be able to look at previous prices to see where the future of the market may be heading. Price history act as clues just like the the environment that the passenger see in the backside windhield. Things like momentum, resistances and support provide clues to future market direction.

In conclusion, traders must quickly pick up the hints that the market is giving through its previous path and use sound trading logic to predict it's future movement. The logic may be organized into individual's trading system. Provided that he/she follows that logic consistently. So we can see how traders who trade emotionally with anger or greed, is similar to a passenger who is wrong in predicting the driver's movement and trying to seek 'revenge' at the market. Remember, the driver doesn't care what 'we' think, it just cares about where he's going.

With patience, consistency, and logic, soon enough the driver and the passenger will be in sync with one another, and the path to success will be within grasp.

I like this journal format and wish you success. I also enjoyed your analogy. Just wondering if you could release some details, such as timeframe, any specific pairs you trade, technical or fundamental, etc.

Thanks,
andersenws

Well, 'basically' I trade on the daily

I use Oanda to trade but Metatrader 4 (with IBFX pairs) for analysis

I trade all the majors and its crosses that exist in both IBFX and Oanda

I follow trend, I add on winning positions, and minimize losing ones

I am 99.9% technical. I tried to be both fundamental and technical in the beginning of my trading 'career' but I was just dumbfounded at the magnitude of fundamental information that come into play. I really believe that to be a fundamental trader you have to be economically 'smart' which I am not

And I don't take any interest nor pay it. I basically keep track of interest deduction and credits and make sure it's not taken into my account. I'm a muslim trader, and as muslims, we can't touch interest

I guess that's all for now

nice format. you don't mind if i use it, do you?

No go ahead. I didn't put any patents on this format

Ok folks, I'm signing off.

This is just courtesy. I think thread makers need to let people know when they are on or off, so people asking questions don't feel silly

The Power of Scaling into Winning Positions

I've only been trading for a very short time (few months actually). And I have been in this forum since the beginning. I have learned so much about various systems, money mangement and psychology both from forums and books that I read.

The one thing I realized is that, all systems are pretty much similar in construction. You have your entry, trigger, stop loss rules, and take profits (if applicable). Most systems, if you stick to it long enough, do work in the long run.

However, I have come to realize that system entry rules is the least important aspect of your system. We tend to want to get into position at the 'best' possible time. So we spend so much time devising trading entry with many confirming indicators. The more complicated the entry is the less effective the system. This is based on my observation however.

So how do you devise systems that can bring huge returns but at the same time having simple entry rules? The answer is devising rules of scaling into open winning trades.

Now before I get into that, I know there are people out there that scale out of positions, to protect given amount of profits that they specify. They would enter trades with multiple lots and scale out and sometimes leaving the last lot until they are stopped out. However, I don't believe in this method because essentially you are minimizing your big profits, for the sake of protecting small gains.

In my limited experience, I come to believe that scaling into 'winning' trades is the most effective strategy. Note that I say winning trades. By winning trades, I mean that positions that have gone your intended direction and provides multiple position entries. This explains why trend traders make out big even when trends only occurs about 30-40% of the time. When a trend begins, trend traders take advantage of every possible opportunities to add to their winning trades. When they are finally stopped out, you have a trade that easily brought you huge gains. In essence, in a trend, trend traders are trading multiple times within the trend.

So spend time devising rules on how you will add into winning positions. I promise you that the results would be phenomenal.

Trade #1
GBPUSD
Stopped out @ 1.9013
Net Pips: -31 pips
R: -0.36

This trade was obviously stopped out at a different value than my S/L recorded at 1.8960. This is because a mistake I made. I remember I took a break and thought that I fixed the mistake. A costly mistake nevertheless. If the original stop still holds, I would still be in the trade. Oh well, I need to learn to double check my trades before taking breaks.

Trade #2
GBPJPY
Move S/L to 224.20

Trade #3
SHORT
EUROCHF @ 1.5940
S/L: 1.5967
Pips Risked: 27 pips

Trade #4
LONG
EUROCAD @ 1.4488
S/L: 1.4408
Pips Risked: 80 pips

This definitely is a thread I will be following! I love your Moving Car Analogy...

Too bad your wont share your system... ... that would make the thread more interesting, and if you add charts you've got a winner...

Few important things to note about my system is that, this is a daily system. More specifically it is a system designed for the working folks. It's for those who toil from 9-5 and still able to rip more pips than the average joe. No more looking into minute, hourly or even 4 hr charts. I hope that this would greatly helped those who wish to trade this way.

I started a similar thread called "Nocturnal System" (in fact, I have decided to call it the Nocturnal System, since I always analyze the market after work in the late evening). However, during that time, my system was in the development process so I didn't continue. Now that I know this system works, I am willing to give sure proof by giving these 'signals' to you. Of course you shouldn't treat these as trading signals,but just as a way to gauge your own trades.

In addition, I always follow proper risk control. If you don't know what that means, I suggest you read books, forums, or whatever it is out there about that topic. It is a huge component of the 'holy grail' system that we are all looking for.

Till next time

Well since brokers do not update prices as soon as the market opens on Sunday. I am moving my stop losses temporarily.

Moving these stop losses still follows my method, but instead of waiting for my indicators to update, I am doing it using manual calculations

Once the prices move again, we will compare our manual stop losses with those that the indicators have shown, and adjust them accordingly.

Trade #2
GBPJPY
move S/L to 224.28

Trade #3
EUROCHF
move S/L to 1.5952

Trade #4
EUROCAD
move S/L to 1.4482

Losses due to Mistakes

So far, I have made a mistake in my GBPUSD, which turned out to be a good trade. Everytime I look at that trade, I feel very dissapointed, that a simple mistake can cost you a lot.

Sometimes I do feel that it's harder to deal with trading 'mistakes' that stopped you out of a winning trade than being stopped out due to a loss. A loss due to unpredictable market movement is easy to deal with as long as you follow your trading strategy. But a loss due to a mistake is much more devastating psychologically (at least for me)

A lot of things can contribute to trader's mistakes. Distractions often occur while you are doing your market analysis that will take you away your focus, thus leaving you forgetful at times of what you were doing before. I remember with the GBPUSD trade, I had the wrong stop loss input in. But before I could fix it, I had to do something and left my computer. Then when I came back, I totally forgot what I was doing and moved on to the next market. I realized the mistake too late when I was stopped out.

Other things like emotions can also distract your trading. When market prices are moving so fast, you can't help but fear to enter the trade too late, missing out on those pips. I for one, have this problem. I only able to trade in the evening hours after work, even then I still have things to do around the house before I can sit down and trade. When I'm finally on the computer, I feel 'rushed', as if some unexplainable force is making me do things at fast pace so that I wouldn't miss good entries. And sometimes, this 'fear' leads me to commit mistakes while doing my market analysis.

So I need to learn to control my emotions and also to minimize (if not eliminate) mistakes while I trade. One has to understand that trading opportunities will always present itself in the future. But you must make each one special by paying close attention to every detail.

Updates of S/L since our prices have resumed


Trade #2
GBPJPY
move S/L to 224.28 (same)

Trade #3
EUROCHF
move S/L to 1.5951 (modified)

Trade #4
EUROCAD
move S/L to 1.4481 (modified)

ps I know it's just a pip difference, but it's what the system says.

Trade#5
SHORT
USDJPY @ 117.36
S/L: 117.92
Pips risked: 56 pips

Trade#6
SHORT
AUDNZD @ 1.1514
S/L: 1.1551
Pips risked: 37 pips

Trade #7
LONG
USDCAD @ 1.1320
S/L: 1.1276
Pips risked: 44 pips

Discretion: New Trader's Pitfall

One of the things I realize as a newbie to trading is that following one's discretion can be difficult.
Newbies are those who has not yet developed the psychological foundation to succeed in trading such as patience, cool headedness, etc. Instead we are fearful, greedy, and sometimes vengeful, when the market does not tailor to our needs.

So whenever we encounter systems that require discretion, we fail to follow those systems not because of the inferiority of the systems themselves, but due to our lack experience and psychological foundation.
For example, fibonacci's and elliot wave analysis methods can be difficult for new traders. These techniques require a lot of discretion since they are no concrete ways to do these analysis.

Two traders following the same technique can have totally different lines drawn based on his unique perception. Therefore, there are no wrong or right analysis. For new traders, trading this way is difficult to execute because they fear of being wrong. Unless the trading system defines clear rules on how to implement these techniques, the new traders would fail to follow the system in the long run.

Therefore objective analysis is the perfect solution for new traders. Techniques that uses exact calculations (pivot points for example) would be more fitting for new traders. Indicators that are based on mathematical equations are also suitable since it would relay specific values that traders use to trade.

Trade #2
GBPJPY
Stopped out @ 224.28
Net Pips: -25 pips
R: -0.28

Trade #6
AUDNZD
Stopped out @ 1.1551
Net Pips: -37 pips
R: -1.00