AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Majors

AceTraderFx Jun 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2118
Although euro's rebound from 1.2095 (Europe) to 1.2130 in New York yesterday suggests recent decline has made a temporary low at Friday's 4-week trough at 1.2093, as long as 1.2144 (previous sup, now res) holds, bearishness remains for subsequent weakness, 'loss of momentum' should keep price above 1.2052.

Only a daily close above 1.2093 may risk stronger retracement towards 1.2194 before prospect of retreat later this week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of inflation data, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for details. We also have some ECB members scheduled to speak in European session.

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AceTraderFx Jun 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.09
The greenback's rally from 109.33 in Europe on Friday to 110.15 today on rise in U.S. Treasury yields suggests pullback from June's near 2-month peak at 110.33 has ended at 109.20 last Monday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.05/10, however, said resistance may hold on first testing and yield retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 109.20 would revive bearishness for stronger weakness to 108.80/90 before prospect of a rebound later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, food price index, GDT price index, Australia house price index, Japan tertiary industry activity.
Germany CPI, HICP, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU trade balance.
Canada housing starts and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, PPI, core PPI, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index.

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AceTraderFx Jun 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2124
Although euro's retreat from 1.2148 to 1.2102 yesterday suggests correction from Friday's near 4-week trough at 1.2093 has possibly ended, subsequent rebound is likely to bring sideways ahead of key FOMC announcement later today.

Below 1.2093 would extend recent decline to next chart objective at 1.2052 whilst a daily close above 1.2148 (Fed's dovish hold perhaps) shifts risk to upside for stronger retracement towards 1.2194, break, 1.2218.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, China industrial output, retail sales.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index, EU labour costs, U.S. MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, import prices, export prices, Fed interest rate decision, and Canada CPI, core CPI, wholesale trade.

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AceTraderFxJun 16:Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.96
Dollar's erratic rise from last Monday's 109.20 low to 110.16 in Europe yesterday suggests pullback from June's near 2-month 110.33 peak has ended and intra-day pullback will bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another upmove, above 110.33 yields 110.70/75 but March's 1-year 110.96 peak should hold on first testing.

On the downside, only below 109.83 would bring stronger retracement to 109.60, break, 109.31/35.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data in New York morning (please refer to our EI page for details) which are likely to be ignored until FOMC announcemnet.

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AceTraderFx Jun 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1998
Euro's selloff in post-FOMC New York session below previous June's 1.2093 low on Wednesday to a 5-week trough of 1.1985 today following Fed's hawkish tilt suggests recent rise from 2021 bottom at 1.1705 has ended at 1.2266 (May) and downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, oversold condition may keep euro above 1.1919 (61.8% r of 1.1705-1.2266).

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2052 dampens bearishness and may risk gain twd 1.2093 before prospect of another fall.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, GDP, China house price index, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, SNB interest rate decision, Italy trade balance, EU construction output, HICP, core HICP.
Canada ADP employment change, and U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, leading index change.

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AceTraderFx Jun 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.62
Dollar's rally yesterday after Fed's hawkish hold and then break of previous June's 110.33 high to 110.71, then 110.82 in Asia today suggests early correction from March's 1-year 110.96 peak has ended at 107.49 in April, above extends uptrend from 2021 January's 102.60 trough to 111.60/70 b4 prospect of correction.

On the downside, only a daily close below 110.33 may risk stronger retracement to 109.81/85.

U.S. will later release some eco. data (please see for EI page for details) but market focus will be on intra-day move in U.S. yields as well as U.S. equities, further decline in U.S. stocks will trigger safe-haven usd buying.

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AceTraderFx Jun 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1908
Yesterday's follow-through selloff to a 2-month low of 1.1893 following Wed's surprise hawkish tilt by the Fed suggests recent decline would pressure price towards next chart objective at 1.1868,
oversold condition should prevent further steep decline.

Only a daily close above New York high at 1.1950 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.2000/05 before prospect of another fall next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, Bank of Japan interest rate decision.
Germany producer prices, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, EU current account.
Canada new housing price index.

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AceTraderFx Jun 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.15
Dollar's rally yesterday after Fed's hawkish hold and then break of previous June's 110.33 high to 110.71, then 110.82 in Asia today suggests early correction from March's 1-year 110.96 peak has ended at 107.49 in April, above extends uptrend from 2021 January's 102.60 trough to 111.60/70 b4 prospect of correction.

On the downside, only a daily close below 110.33 may risk stronger retracement to 109.81/85.

T.G.I.F. n no U.S. eco. data is due out, so market will take cue from movement in U.S. yields n intra-day price swings in U.S. stocks as 'volatility' is expected on today so-called 'quadruple witching' day due to expiries of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options n lastly, single stock futures.

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AceTraderFx Jun 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1870
Friday's resumption of recent decline to a 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1848 (New York) due to active safe-haven usd buying suggests euro would extend further weakness after minor consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum is likely to keep price above above 1.1786 and risk has increased for a correction.

On the upside, only above 1.1925 signals temporary low is made and yields retracement towards 1.1950 before retreat.

No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries. ECB President Lagarde will appear at the Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament at 14:15 GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jun 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.96
Despite dollar's fall from last Thursday's 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 in Asia today, subsequent rebound in tandem with U.S. yields suggests the pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.48, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of said resistance, however, loss of momentum may keep price below 2021 peak at 110.96 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.

Data to be released today:
U.K. Rightmove house price and Australia retail sales on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Jun 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1907
Although euro's rebound on Monday after initial re-test of Fri's 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1848 suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of consolidation is in store, as long as 1.1950 holds, downside bias remains, however, loss of near term downward momentum would keep price above 1.1800/10.

Only a daily close above 1.1950 may risk stronger retracement towards 1.20006 before prospect of retreat later this week.

On the data front, we have Italy's industrial sales n then EU's consumer confidence. We also have ECB's Lane speaking on "The resilience of the euro" at 14:00GMT n then ECB's Schnabel speaking at 17:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jun 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.46
Despite dollar's fall from last Thursday's 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 in Asia today, subsequent rebound in tandem with U.S. yields suggests the pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.48, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of said resistance, however, loss of momentum may keep price below 2021 peak at 110.96 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia Westpac consumer survey.
U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends orders, Italy industrial sales.
U.S. redbook, existing home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing and EU consumer confidence.

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AceTraderFx Jun 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1933
Euro's break of 1.1921/25 res to 1.1952 yesterday's due to broad-based usd's weakness following Fed J. Powell's dovish testimony before the Congress confirms recent decline from 1.2266 (May) has made a temporary low earlier at 1.1848 (Friday), near term overbought condition should prevent strong gain and recon res at 1.2006 should cap upside and yield retreat later this week.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1921 would be the first signal recovery is over, then risk would shift to downside for weakness to 1.1882.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, coincident index, leading indicator.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage app, building permits, current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales and Canada retail sales.

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AceTraderFx Jun 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.88
Despite dollar's fall from last Thursday's 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 on Monday, subsequent rally in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break above said resistance suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of 2021 peak at 110.96, where break would extend Medium Term upmove to 111.20/30 before prospect of a much-needed correction due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.

Today is PMI day in the US together with a slew of other eco data, please refer to our EI page for details. Also, we have Fed's Bowman n Fed's Bostic scheduled to speak in New York session.

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AceTraderFx Jun 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1930
Despite extending erratic rise from last Friday's 9-week trough at 1.1848 to 1.1969 in New York morning on continued usd's weakness after soft U.S. data, intra-day decline following hawkish comments by Fed officials suggests temporary top is made and consolidation with downside bias is in store.

Below 1.1911 signals correction is possibly over and heads back towards 1.1882, then re-test of 1.1848 next week. Only above 1.1969 risks marginal gain but loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 1.2006.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany import prices, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, France business climate, U.K. BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporation bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE vote unchanged, BoE vote cut.
U.S. durable goods, durable ex-transport, durables ex-defence, GDP, PCE prices, trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, continuous jobless claims, KC Fed manufacturing and Cana average weekly earnings.

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AceTraderFx Jun 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.87
Despite dollar's retreat from yesterday's near 15-month peak at 111.10 to 110.67 in New York, subsequent rally in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break above said resistance suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for Medium Term upmove to extend to 111.40/50 before prospect of a much-needed correction due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 110.48 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.72 but 109.20 should hold.

Ahead of Friday's release of Fed's preferred inflation gauge, namely the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the U.S. will release a slew of eco. data which will cause intra-day price swings, please refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Q1 GDP, durable goods n Q1 PCE prices etc. Following Wed's hawkish comments by Fed's Bowman n Bostic, we have more fed speak by a number of FOMC members, so usd may go up on more hawkish comments by some of them.

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AceTraderFx Jun 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1930
Although yesterday's sideways swings below Wednesday's 1.1969 high suggests consolidation may continue ahead of release of Fed's preferred inflation gauge, namely the core personal consumption expenditures price index later today, downside bias remains and below 1.1882 would signal correction from last Friday's 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1848 has ended and yield re-test of this level next week.

Only a daily close above 1.1969 may risk stronger retracement of recent decline towards 1.2006.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand import, trade balance, exports.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan Tokyo CPI, Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy consumer confidence, trade balance.
U.S. CBI distributive trades, personal income, personal spending, PCE prices and University of Michigan sentiment.

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AceTraderFx Jun 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.74
Despite dollar's initial marginal gain to a near 15-month high of 111.11 (Asia), subsequent retreat to 110.70 on cross unwinding in yen suggests medium-term uptrend has made a temporary top and range trading is seen ahead of U.S. PCE data, above 111.11 would extend marginal gain, however, loss of momentum should cap price below daily res at 111.71.

A daily close below 110.67 would risk stronger retracement towards 110.22 but this week's low at 109.72 (Mon) should remain intact.

T.G.I.F., U.S. will release a raft of eco. data which which definitely cause intra-day price swings n in addition, we have a total of 4 Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx Jun 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1937
Euro's intra-day retreat from 1.1975 to 1.1927 in hectic New York trading due to broad-based rebound in usd in tandem with rally in U.S. yields suggests correction from Jun's 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1848 has possibly ended and consolidation with downside bias is seen, below 1.1882 would head back towards 1.1848 later this week.

Only a daily close above 1.1975 risks stronger retracement of recent decline, however, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price below res at 1.2006 and yield retreat.

On the data front, the only eco.data due out is German import prices. We have a number of ECB members scheduled to speak, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to speech by ECB Vice President de Guindos at the EURO FINANCE Summit in Frankfurt at 14:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Jun 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.74
Although dollar's fall from last Thursday's near 15-month peak at 111.11 to 110.49 Friday suggests medium term upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent strong rebound to 110.87, then intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, above 111.11 would extend to 111.47, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 111.71.

On the downside, only below 110.49 risks weakness to 110.22, then possibly 110.03/08.

G7 economic data to be released later today:
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

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