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EURUSD 2.0

  • #101
  • Jun 11, 2021 7:45am Jun 11, 2021 7:45am
So it's looking like it is going to be a bearish Friday. I wasn't awake in time to catch this move. At this point, it's not worth the risk to jump in. I am not going to trade today. I will wait. Congratulations to those of you who gained some pips this morning.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #102
  • Jun 11, 2021 8:05am Jun 11, 2021 8:05am
Quoting here2there
So it's looking like it is going to be a bearish Friday. I wasn't awake in time to catch this move. At this point, it's not worth the risk to jump in. I am not going to trade today. I will wait. Congratulations to those of you who gained some pips this morning.

You snooze, you looze


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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #103
  • Jun 11, 2021 8:10am Jun 11, 2021 8:10am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} You snooze, you looze {image}
I have more to lose if I don't snooze.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #104
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:29am Jun 11, 2021 9:29am
I changed my mind. I opened a small buy position at 21124. Am I catching a falling knife? Time will tell. But I am willing to take the risk at this price (also a demand zone). I may add another long at a lower price.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #105
  • Jun 11, 2021 9:46am Jun 11, 2021 9:46am
Price just hit a key psychological level at 1.21. If price closes above 1.2125, then I will move my stop to break even. Otherwise, I will look to add to my position at a lower price.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #106
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:01am Jun 11, 2021 10:01am
Next demand zone is at 20857 - 20515. I have a buy limit order at 20764. If price doesn't get there today, then I will cancel the buy limit order before the Daily close. I don't keep pending orders open over the weekend, as the spread could be harsh.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #107
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:13am Jun 11, 2021 10:13am
Look at this massive candle on the 8HR USDX chart! There is a high probability that either a retracement will soon follow or a reversal will take place sometime in the near future. Either way, I will be looking for both buying and selling opportunities on EURUSD. By the way, despite the strong bearish activity we are seeing on EURUSD, I am still holding to my bullish bias on this pair.

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Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #108
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:20am Jun 11, 2021 10:20am
Price has broken through the 4HR demand zone at 21171 - 21037. Therefore, it is no longer valid.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #109
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:41am Jun 11, 2021 10:41am
You really can't think like a trend trader in market conditions such as what we are witnessing in EURUSD's price action. From now on, I will trade the fractals.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #110
  • Jun 11, 2021 10:48am Jun 11, 2021 10:48am
Buying now. Had a nice shorting campaign this morning, which is done. Also had a couple of puts running on XDE (Euro options), which I just closed out.
  • #111
  • Jun 11, 2021 11:03am Jun 11, 2021 11:03am
This market is going crazy I thought that this move was to trap bears but then I look at Retail and I see a 80% lot volume on longs so I think we may see further moves down...
  • #112
  • Jun 11, 2021 11:28am Jun 11, 2021 11:28am
Quoting Esbuga
This market is going crazy I thought that this move was to trap bears but then I look at Retail and I see a 80% lot volume on longs so I think we may see further moves down...
Yep, today's price action is causing me to reconsider my bias on the direction of EURUSD. Though the trading hours have not come to an end today, it's doubtful we will see any significant bullish activity.

There is a possibility USD is in the process of correcting. It is long overdue for a correction in my opinion. If this is the case, then we will most certainly see more downside on EURUSD. It could go as low as 1.90 or lower. It's hard to say at this point. Time will tell.

A lower high and a lower low can be seen on the daily. So that should be seen as a sign of caution to buyers.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #113
  • Jun 11, 2021 11:35am Jun 11, 2021 11:35am
Preparing to buy between 1.2085 - 1.20715. Any thoughts on the validity of this location.
  • #114
  • Jun 11, 2021 11:46am Jun 11, 2021 11:46am
Quoting sixconrads
Preparing to buy between 1.2085 - 1.20715. Any thoughts on the validity of this location.
I won't tell you where to buy or to sell. However, if you plan on using pending orders, don't leave them open over the weekend. For if you do, and they get hit, the spread could be excessive and potentially put you in a bad position. Also, gaps usually occur over the weekend. So that could make things even worse for people who have pending orders set.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #115
  • Jun 11, 2021 12:19pm Jun 11, 2021 12:19pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I won't tell you where to buy or to sell. However, if you plan on using pending orders, don't leave them open over the weekend. For if you do, and they get hit, the spread could be excessive and potentially put you in a bad position. Also, gaps usually occur over the weekend. So that could make things even worse for people who have pending orders set.
Just was curious if anyone had thoughts on that area, good or bad, pros or cons. Looking for input to help me become better at choosing entry zones (areas).
  • #116
  • Jun 11, 2021 12:42pm Jun 11, 2021 12:42pm
Quoting sixconrads
{quote} Just was curious if anyone had thoughts on that area, good or bad, pros or cons. Looking for input to help me become better at choosing entry zones (areas).
Buying or selling at or near swing highs or swing lows or key psychological levels representing whole numbers, is a proven strategy. But other things have to be put into consideration when doing so.

Are you trading with the trend? Are you trading against the trend? Is the market moving sideways/ranging? These are questions that should be addressed before buying or selling, so that you can put together a reasonable plan for managing your trades.

Different scenarios in the market call for different methods of trade management. It mostly depends on what is happening on the the higher timeframe than the timeframe you plan to enter a trade on. For example, if you plan to enter on the 4HR, then look to see what is happening on the Daily for direction.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #117
  • Edited 7:57pm Jun 11, 2021 7:41pm | Edited 7:57pm
EURUSD analysis for next week.

This week EURUSD has been going down bearish and it fail to break further up. COT reports are in, and buyers took profits off but so did sellers. COT reports show overall buyers are majority. So long term it is believed that EURUSD will go up.

Looking at daily chart and sentiment, looks like majority retail are in buy positions which means they are trapped now. It is possible that next week, price could drop back 1.2 or less to 1.1975 where there is daily demand zone. Daily bullish trend line has been broken too.

To all the traders out there that want to take a good advice, always look at monthly, weekly, daily and 4HR chart time frames. If you want to see the big picture pay attention to monthly and weekly. If you want medium to large picture look at the daily and 4 HR. Pay attention to macro economics, COT, sentiments, and charts. Never fill the chart with too many indicators because they will be just in the way. Keep the charts clean with minimal indicators. Remember all of this are tools that you can apply it to trading. Train your brain and eyes, to analyze clean charts, because remember, no matter what charts get the data first. Trade safe.
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  • #118
  • Jun 11, 2021 7:48pm Jun 11, 2021 7:48pm
Looking at 1HR chart TF, buyers are trapped. If you look to the left where there is ellipse on demand zone, well that zone is broken. The price stopped below it and reverse a bit to trap the buyers. So the price did not bounce off demand zone, but it bounced off from below it which tells me that this will go further down even on lower time frames. It is possible that this will go up a bit to trap more buyers and than it will eventually push further down. Trade safe.
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  • #119
  • Edited 8:54pm Jun 11, 2021 8:34pm | Edited 8:54pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} ...Multi-time-frame analysis is something I left a long time ago because it offered no advantage. I submit this respectfully and not to be argumentative. Just a different viewpoint.
I disagree with you on the idea that 'Multi-time-frame analysis' offers no advantages. It all comes down to your strategy. For you it may not offer any advantages, but for others it does. But you are free to believe what you want. All I ask is that you not undermine the thoughts of others posting in here by saying negative things about their strategy. Such 'side notes' are not necessary. Simply share your analysis, and leave it at that.

That said, the Daily has also shown a breakdown of the uptrend. The weakening of the uptrend became apparent days ago, forewarning buyers to take caution.

Notice the lower high and lower low on the image below.

EURUSD Daily Chart
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In fact, the Weekly chart showed this breakdown weeks ago. I brought this up Here.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #120
  • Jun 13, 2021 6:44pm Jun 13, 2021 6:44pm
I am expecting to see more bearish activity this week on EURUSD. I have drawn my retracement levels using the fib tool. 15%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% are of interest to me. I will be looking carefully to see how price responds to any one of these levels.

EURUSD 4HR Chart
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According to Weekly strength, EUR is still shown as being stronger than USD. However, Daily Strength for USD has surpassed EUR. Hence my reason for believing we will likely see more bearish activity this week following a minor retracement.

Currency Strength According to Currency Quake
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It is possible bulls could surprise us all. I don't know. Time will tell. But for now, I am looking for selling opportunities on this pair.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
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