Learn from your mistakes and march on.
- #41
- Jun 9, 2021 11:18am Jun 9, 2021 11:18am
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,599 Posts
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
- #43
- Jun 9, 2021 12:09pm Jun 9, 2021 12:09pm
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,599 Posts
I am still looking for a retracement to fill one or more of my sell limit orders. There is a possibility that won't happen. If it doesn't happen and price closes below the fractal at 21734, then I will open a sell market order. However, if one or more of my limit orders gets filled and price closes below this fractal, then I will add to my position.
EURUSD 1HR Chart
EURUSD 1HR Chart
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
- #44
- Edited 7:14pm Jun 9, 2021 5:04pm | Edited 7:14pm
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,599 Posts
Why have I become a seller if I have a bullish bias on EURUSD? There are a number of reasons.
1. I noticed prices increasing while Tick Volume was decreasing. This suggested to me that buyers were getting tired, and sellers were gradually taking control.
Note: I intentionally captured the following screenshot about 7 hours before the Daily candle closed. I did this because I wanted to show you how Tick Volume can be used to avoid getting into potentially bad trades.
Without going into details, I shared my concern about this in an earlier comment, in response to Techanalyst, who opened a short position at a great price!
EURUSD Daily Chart
Now let's look at what happened later...
The following screenshot shows that a false breakout occurred. I am sure a lot of unsuspecting buyers got caught in this false breakout trap. This trap could have been avoided, as I have shown.
EURUSD 4HR Chart
2. The false breakout occurred at a supply zone, around a psychological level, and around the 61.8 fib level. This further suggested to me that EURUSD was going to become bearish.
EURUSD 4HR Chart
Note: I believe it is always best to question your trading plan, to ask yourself what you could have done better, so the next time you see a similar scenario, you will have a chance to do better.
What could I have done better?
When I noticed rising prices on the Daily while Tick Volume was decreasing near a supply zone, near a key psychological level (1.22), and near the 61.8 fib level, I should have opened a sell position.
If you have more than 1 valid reason to buy or sell, then it is probably a good idea to pull the trigger. In this case, I had 3 valid reasons to sell.
3. The Weekly chart shows a lower high and a lower low. This tells me that the trend is losing momentum. That's not to say the trend has come to an end. It's too early, in my opinion, to make a conclusion on that. EURUSD is in a range. So it is possible it could go either way. But it is showing signs of exhaustion.
EURUSD Weekly Chart
4. USD is showing signs of indecision at a key area of support. Smart traders will pay attention to the USDX chart, as it provides clues on what could potentially happen on USD pairs.
USDX Weekly Chart
That being said, I still have a bullish bias on EURUSD. However, I am now looking for selling opportunities, because sellers have taken control. Until these conditions change, I will be looking to sell EURUSD. I take it one day at a time.
If you found this post to be helpful, and would like to show support for my educational approach to sharing, then please go to my profile page and hit the subscribe button. Your support will be much appreciated, and it will motivate me to share more.
1. I noticed prices increasing while Tick Volume was decreasing. This suggested to me that buyers were getting tired, and sellers were gradually taking control.
Note: I intentionally captured the following screenshot about 7 hours before the Daily candle closed. I did this because I wanted to show you how Tick Volume can be used to avoid getting into potentially bad trades.
Without going into details, I shared my concern about this in an earlier comment, in response to Techanalyst, who opened a short position at a great price!
EURUSD Daily Chart
Now let's look at what happened later...
The following screenshot shows that a false breakout occurred. I am sure a lot of unsuspecting buyers got caught in this false breakout trap. This trap could have been avoided, as I have shown.
EURUSD 4HR Chart
2. The false breakout occurred at a supply zone, around a psychological level, and around the 61.8 fib level. This further suggested to me that EURUSD was going to become bearish.
EURUSD 4HR Chart
Note: I believe it is always best to question your trading plan, to ask yourself what you could have done better, so the next time you see a similar scenario, you will have a chance to do better.
What could I have done better?
When I noticed rising prices on the Daily while Tick Volume was decreasing near a supply zone, near a key psychological level (1.22), and near the 61.8 fib level, I should have opened a sell position.
If you have more than 1 valid reason to buy or sell, then it is probably a good idea to pull the trigger. In this case, I had 3 valid reasons to sell.
3. The Weekly chart shows a lower high and a lower low. This tells me that the trend is losing momentum. That's not to say the trend has come to an end. It's too early, in my opinion, to make a conclusion on that. EURUSD is in a range. So it is possible it could go either way. But it is showing signs of exhaustion.
EURUSD Weekly Chart
4. USD is showing signs of indecision at a key area of support. Smart traders will pay attention to the USDX chart, as it provides clues on what could potentially happen on USD pairs.
USDX Weekly Chart
That being said, I still have a bullish bias on EURUSD. However, I am now looking for selling opportunities, because sellers have taken control. Until these conditions change, I will be looking to sell EURUSD. I take it one day at a time.
If you found this post to be helpful, and would like to show support for my educational approach to sharing, then please go to my profile page and hit the subscribe button. Your support will be much appreciated, and it will motivate me to share more.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
- #46
- Jun 9, 2021 11:11pm Jun 9, 2021 11:11pm
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,528 Posts
The price is holding above the half of this range yet.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
- #47
- Jun 9, 2021 11:13pm Jun 9, 2021 11:13pm
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,599 Posts
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
- #54
- Jun 10, 2021 4:32am Jun 10, 2021 4:32am
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,599 Posts
{quote} I don t trust on volume..
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
- #55
- Edited 5:03am Jun 10, 2021 4:52am | Edited 5:03am
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,599 Posts
For those of you who have been reading my posts in this thread, I want to inform you that because EURUSD went down so extensively, I removed my limit orders. Don't get me wrong. I am still a seller.
That being said, I manually opened a sell position at 21722. I used the fib tool to catch this entry on the pullback. I may add more to my position. Let's see how it works out.
Note: if price closes above 22174, then my trading idea will be invalidated.
EURUSD 4HR Chart
That being said, I manually opened a sell position at 21722. I used the fib tool to catch this entry on the pullback. I may add more to my position. Let's see how it works out.
Note: if price closes above 22174, then my trading idea will be invalidated.
EURUSD 4HR Chart
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
- #58
- Jun 10, 2021 5:35am Jun 10, 2021 5:35am
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,599 Posts
I want to remind everyone to keep the bigger picture in mind. EURUSD is still bullish on higher timeframes. Until the trend changes on the higher timeframes, I maintain my bullish bias.
Yes, I opened a sell position. It was risky. But I am willing to take that risk. I trade in both directions. I trade where I see opportunity. If I win, then I win. If I lose, then I lose. Nobody wins all of the time.
The important thing to me is having a plan and seeing it through.
The bigger picture can be seen on the image below.
Yes, I opened a sell position. It was risky. But I am willing to take that risk. I trade in both directions. I trade where I see opportunity. If I win, then I win. If I lose, then I lose. Nobody wins all of the time.
The important thing to me is having a plan and seeing it through.
The bigger picture can be seen on the image below.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
- #59
- Jun 10, 2021 5:37am Jun 10, 2021 5:37am
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,599 Posts
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
- #60
- Jun 10, 2021 5:43am Jun 10, 2021 5:43am
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,599 Posts
Learn from your mistakes and march on.