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  • #1,194,941
  • May 30, 2021 2:46am May 30, 2021 2:46am
gold ready to drop signalling strong usd, so i will be very cautious about buying eurusd
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  • #1,194,942
  • May 30, 2021 6:32am May 30, 2021 6:32am
Nice reversal on Friday, let's see what pips we can scalp on Monday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,194,943
  • May 30, 2021 9:44am May 30, 2021 9:44am
Quoting here2there
{quote} The thing that concerns me is a number of traders who visit this forum don't have a lot of experience trading. The guy has a red badge. People on FF tend to see a red badge as a symbol of experience and authority. He is possibly misleading people by saying EURUSD is bearish.
Yeah! There are so many red diamond users who misleading other people (including me I guess). And I don't mean OnlineAddict.
Unfotunately, this "traders" realise that they close one losing trade after another losing trade, blow account after account, but still trying to make prohecy. I still trying to figure out WHY.
  • #1,194,944
  • May 30, 2021 11:42am May 30, 2021 11:42am
Quoting here2there
Why did you stop at March 29? Image originally posted by OnlineAddict here. {image} EURUSD is bullish. Not bearish. I see higher highs, and higher lows. Here's proof! {image}
Is this a serious question? Why I only posted the chart until march 29? People with a 3 digit IQ will understand, no point to explain it to others.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,194,945
  • May 30, 2021 11:47am May 30, 2021 11:47am
Some people who claim to be COT reports experts, may go back to babypips and learn how to actually read them.

https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex...ing-cot-report
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,194,946
  • Edited 12:12pm May 30, 2021 12:01pm | Edited 12:12pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
Some people who claim to be COT reports experts, may go back to babypips and learn how to actually read them. https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex...ing-cot-report
So yes they prove our point. Check the "In it to Win It" part carefully. It says "large speculators" share the same goal with us. Which is profiting from trading unlike the hedgers and asset managers.

And in the beginning of the article it points out that Non-Commercials are the large speculators. Same as we said.

Maybe you can't see the commercials and non-commercials because you look at the "historical compressed" Excel file. In that file you should look at "Leveraged Funds" instead of "Asset Managers"

If you are looking at the "short format" or " long format" you should look at the Non-Commercials.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,194,947
  • May 30, 2021 12:04pm May 30, 2021 12:04pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} The very fundamental data is submitted to cftc on Tuesday and published to the public on Friday it is historical data which has no value Last year I dated 2 women and submitted the report to the government the report was made public on on Friday So it was already too late for both to take any action against me
It is indeed helpful. Yes it shows the past data but first of all large speculators don't change their mind in 3 days (generally); and second of all cftc does not aim to give us trading signals, they aim to give an idea on how professional sentiment look like. So they don't have to be exactly on time. It is there just to help a bit, to give a clue.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,194,948
  • May 30, 2021 12:11pm May 30, 2021 12:11pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} So yes they prove our point. Check the "In it to Win It" part carefully. It says "large speculators" share the same goal with us. Which us profiting from trading unlike the hedgers and asset managers. And in the beginning of the article it points out that Non-Commercials are the large speculators. Same as we said. Maybe you can't see the commercials and non-commercials because you look at the "historical conpressed" Excel file. In that file you should look at "Leveraged Funds" instead of "Asset Managers" If you are looking at the "short...
It says what I said a long time ago...asset managers are the worst at market reversals...they are extensively long before a drop and extensively short before a move up...just like they were crazy long at EU at 1.25, before it dropped 1900 pips to 1.06 and there are more examples like that. They never "see" the reversal coming, they are adding to trades like a stupid herd, always going in one direction until its too late.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,194,949
  • May 30, 2021 12:14pm May 30, 2021 12:14pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} The very fundamental data is submitted to cftc on Tuesday and published to the public on Friday it is historical data which has no value Last year I dated 2 women and submitted the report to the government the report was made public on on Friday So it was already too late for both to take any action against me
Yes, its delayed by one week, so for intraday scalpers its meaningless and swing traders might get confused, too, as they wouldn't see reversals coming, so they might get trapped in an "old" trend.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,194,950
  • May 30, 2021 12:17pm May 30, 2021 12:17pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} It says what I said a long time ago...asset managers are the worst at market reversals...they are extensively long before a drop and extensively short before a move up...just like they were crazy long at EU at 1.25, before it dropped 1900 pips to 1.06 and there are more examples like that. They never "see" the reversal coming, they are adding to trades like a stupid herd, always going in one direction until its too late.
Yeah but Non-Commercials & Leveraged Funds are also long this time. Pay attention to that as well, it may not work like that example you gave this time.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,194,951
  • Edited 1:03pm May 30, 2021 12:28pm | Edited 1:03pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Is this a serious question? Why I only posted the chart until march 29? People with a 3 digit IQ will understand, no point to explain it to others.
Brush up on your reading comprehension skills! You were asked why you think EURUSD IS bearish. This question was asked within the context of comments you have made about the COT report, which essentially deals with the bigger picture. My point was to demonstrate you did not answer the question. The bigger picture says EURUSD is bullish. Just because pullbacks/retracements occur, it doesn't make it bearish.

You are spreading nonsense in here. You are a danger to noob traders who are not experienced enough to see that you don't know what you are talking about.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,194,952
  • May 30, 2021 1:22pm May 30, 2021 1:22pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Brush up on your reading comprehension skills! You were asked why you think EURUSD IS bearish. This question was asked within the context of comments you have made about the COT report, which essentially deals with the bigger picture. My point was to demonstrate you did not answer the question. The bigger picture says EURUSD is bullish. Just because pullbacks/retracements occur, it doesn't make it bearish. You are spreading nonsense in here. You are a danger to noob...
Dude, please stop! In the time you are here, you didn't prove once you are even a trader. You remind me of Cliff, expert or everything and nothing at the same time.

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Why should I explain to you or anyone why I am bearish over and over again? What do I gain from it? Nothing, I just lose time...so thanks, but no thanks.

Everyone is responsible for their own trades, if someone blindly follows anyone in here, its his own fault. Everyone can have different entries, exits, leverage and money management in general.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,194,953
  • May 30, 2021 1:25pm May 30, 2021 1:25pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} ...In the time you are here, you didn't prove once you are even a trader...
You haven't been paying attention.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,194,954
  • May 30, 2021 1:25pm May 30, 2021 1:25pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Brush up on your reading comprehension skills! You were asked why you think EURUSD IS bearish. This question was asked within the context of comments you have made about the COT report, which essentially deals with the bigger picture. My point was to demonstrate you did not answer the question. The bigger picture says EURUSD is bullish. Just because pullbacks/retracements occur, it doesn't make it bearish. You are spreading nonsense in here. You are a danger to noob...
Just ignore him. He cant even tell the difference between bullish and bearish. We keep explaining non commercials, he keeps mentioning something else like dealers and asset managers. He calls them stupid, a guy that sits at home, not trading for a living, calling hedge funds with millions and billions of dollars in capital trading stupid. There is that old saying"you cant fix stupid". We made our point and they are valid. No one takes OnlineAddict seriously anyway. He dont matter here at all. Useless. Trade safe.
  • #1,194,955
  • May 30, 2021 1:28pm May 30, 2021 1:28pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Just ignore him...
That's good advice.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,194,956
  • May 30, 2021 3:50pm May 30, 2021 3:50pm
Here's my take on the EURUSD, from the technical perspective of a medium-term swing trader. On the daily time frame, price action is grinding northward within a rising channel (blue) within a larger rising channel (red) seen on the weekly time frame. But, presently, price action is largely sideways. Last week Thursday price action printed a miniature, ambivalent candlestick at the lower end of the channel after a relatively strong and big bearish candlestick was printed on Wednesday. On Friday, price action printed a long-tailed doji-like candlestick at the channel support trendline, confirming the market ambivalence.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,194,957
  • May 30, 2021 3:52pm May 30, 2021 3:52pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} It says what I said a long time ago...asset managers are the worst at market reversals...they are extensively long before a drop and extensively short before a move up...just like they were crazy long at EU at 1.25, before it dropped 1900 pips to 1.06 and there are more examples like that. They never "see" the reversal coming, they are adding to trades like a stupid herd, always going in one direction until its too late.
The report is one week late. So the data is delayed, therefore you should look at the most recent data and not the overall position they hold. Those positions asset managers hold were built up overtime, so its silly to think you will get the same results following simply that data...
  • #1,194,958
  • May 30, 2021 4:10pm May 30, 2021 4:10pm
IMO the most important piece of info to watch with COT data is the positions that they have recently added. ie. added 3000 longs and removed 3000 shorts. Add this along with the long term trend and you will get a better understanding of what is really going on with the big players.

Just because they have a large position with EUR long does not mean it will continue... In fact, you could even try and pick tops this way as well.
  • #1,194,959
  • May 30, 2021 4:19pm May 30, 2021 4:19pm
From babypips:

As a result, speculative positioning indicates trend direction while commercial positioning could signal reversals.
If hedgers keep increasing their long positions while speculators increase their short positions, a market bottom could be in sight.
If hedgers keep adding more short positions while speculators keep adding more long positions, a market top could occur.
Of course, it’s difficult to determine the exact point where a sentiment extreme will occur so it might be best to do nothing until signs of an actual reversal are seen.
We could say that speculators, because they follow the trend, catch most of the move BUT are wrong on turning points.
Commercial traders, on the other hand, miss most of the trend EXCEPT when price reverses.
Until a sentiment extreme occurs, it would be best to go with the speculators.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #1,194,960
  • May 30, 2021 4:26pm May 30, 2021 4:26pm
Quoting saninvestor
From babypips: As a result, speculative positioning indicates trend direction while commercial positioning could signal reversals. If hedgers keep increasing their long positions while speculators increase their short positions, a market bottom could be in sight. If hedgers keep adding more short positions while speculators keep adding more long positions, a market top could occur. Of course, it’s difficult to determine the exact point where a sentiment extreme will occur so it might be best to do nothing until signs of an actual reversal are seen....
Simple:
Trend is their (non commercial) friend. They add longs when trend is up and add short when rend is down. Not very wonderful indicator. This is what we can see only on the chart. It's better you enter long positions when trend is up. BUT, when something going up, it should turn down somewhere. Adding long positions by speculators doesn't mean trend continuation. They just follow the trend. They don't make the trend.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
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