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Trading Made Simple

  • #119,661
  • May 29, 2021 4:56pm May 29, 2021 4:56pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} ....BEST CASE SCENARIO with all winners!!! How low will the net pips be when you factor in that 65% success rate?


And this is the "master trader" that hurled his toxic spew when I said that I ROUTINELY use SE:SE with risk100:reward10! But of course, my win rate is far, far beyond his abysmal 65%

ROUTINELY use SE:SE with risk100:reward10! But of course, my win rate is far, far beyond his abysmal 65%

How far is "far, far and beyond?

Trading Made Simple Rule #7

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #119,662
  • May 29, 2021 5:26pm May 29, 2021 5:26pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} I have got inquiries on how to find out the Risk:Reward ration on trades of various styles. First, you need to learn what is R and R Multiple R and R Multiple by Dr. Van Tharp (Youtube video) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFuF6M7z1jg {image} Risk (R) is the amount of capital you have to exit to limit your risk. That is the maximum loss for the trade, usually is the initial stop loss. Now, when calculating those non-TMS SE/ME trades, R is the initial stop loss. Phx62, senior member who once mentioned, the emergency SL (50pips)...

hey @tommydogie

Finally I got you attention and interest into Dr Van Tharp' teachings.
But there are also other trading school / coaches who teach the same.

I know some 2012 batch Super Trader program graduate based in Hong Kong and if you are interested, I can try hook you up with them.

To have a more in-depth understanding of R and R-Multiple and Position Sizing in trading system development, you would need to follow his "How to Develop a Winning Trading Systems that Fits You" . In that book and CDs, he explained several Money Management based- systems for trading on both 'good and bad markets'.

You may find this material in online resale (used copies) at very good price.
In case you like to know, there are 21 members in this thread who have this material and we discussed system development back in 2012 and 2013 in a separate chat group.

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #119,663
  • Edited 6:00pm May 29, 2021 5:46pm | Edited 6:00pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} I have got inquiries on how to find out the Risk:Reward ration on trades of various styles. First, you need to learn what is R and R Multiple R and R Multiple by Dr. Van Tharp (Youtube video) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFuF6M7z1jg {image} Risk (R) is the amount of capital you have to exit to limit your risk. That is the maximum loss for the trade, usually is the initial stop loss. Now, when calculating those non-TMS SE/ME trades, R is the initial stop loss. Phx62, senior member who once mentioned, the emergency SL (50pips)...

hey @tommydogie

Your assumption that the R(50pips) is WRONG!

50 pips stop loss would be an 'overkill' for UJ H1 trading in current market conditions.

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1) Big E original TMS 5-Method uses the last swing low for stop loss. Big E did not use Position Sizing.

2) That USDJPY trade setup is one of Three Powerful FOREX Price Patterns

download the pdf { here } in this pdf is explanation where to place the technical stop for Bullish Engulfing Ouside Bar BUEOB candles.

3) If you have studied Dean Malone' Synergy trading model, he has a different method to place his trade entry and initial stop loss which is based on price volatility and his Price Action Channel plus the APB/HA candles.

When you know both 1) and 2) above, the trade stop loss is much less than 50 pips.

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and

with Capital Protection (in THV CaveManager EA ) and Jumping Stop Loss (MPTM EA ), these EAs trade management tools would help make trade management a breeze and save lots of time sitting in front of your small screen lookong for the next trade opportunities.

Stay Tuned!


more/-
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #119,664
  • May 29, 2021 5:58pm May 29, 2021 5:58pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} hey @tommydogie Your assumption that the R(50pips) is WRONG! 50 pips stop loss would be an 'overkill' for UJ H1 trading in current market conditions. {image} 1) Big E original TMS 5-Method uses the last swing low for stop loss. Big E did not use Position Sizing. 2) That USDJPY trade setup if one of Three Powerful FOREX Price Patterns download the pdf { here } in this pdf is explanation where to place the technical stop for Bullish Engulfing...

here just to add more information for education .... value-add to this thread.

- with Price Action Channel
- etc. etc. etc.


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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #119,665
  • May 29, 2021 8:20pm May 29, 2021 8:20pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} I have got inquiries on how to find out the Risk:Reward ration on trades of various styles. First, you need to learn what is R and R Multiple R and R Multiple by Dr. Van Tharp (Youtube video) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFuF6M7z1jg {image} Risk (R) is the amount of capital you have to exit to limit your risk. That is the maximum loss for the trade, usually is the initial stop loss. Now, when calculating those non-TMS SE/ME trades, R is the initial stop loss. Phx62, senior member who once mentioned, the emergency SL (50pips)...

The common misconception and easy delusion that traders have and overestimate their actual RR is rules that have trailing SL.

For example, although 50pips is the emergency SL, this is the maximum loss of 1R nonetheless (it is hit as confirmed by Phx62)
Trailing stops reduces loss to <-1R.

Sometimes traders think their 1R is at price level but not the initial SL. That is not true as the initial SL is hit in reality. When you consider R, that is the maximum amount of money to lose.

Hindsight is 20/20, one can say they trail SL to BE or certain price levels, and makes crazy RR ratio in a winning trade.
Hence I try my best to illustrate how to enter trades with >1RR by screen shot the moment I enter trades and the projected SLTP

The best way for traders to realise their actual RR, is lose a trade. Another way is to look at past performance to determine average RR, which is a function offered by many trading performance matrices.

Trade safe and learn the correct knowledge of trading
  • #119,666
  • May 29, 2021 9:27pm May 29, 2021 9:27pm
Example of Phx62 trades posted... the year was Nov,2014

Can you spot Phx62' trading secrets ?

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #119,667
  • May 29, 2021 9:35pm May 29, 2021 9:35pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Example of Phx62 trades posted... the year was 2015, Feb. Note: He use THV Cavemanager EA trade manager Can you spot Phx62' trading secrets ? {image}
I guess that's posting only hindsight charts or Adobe Photoshop......
No one can trade like this. Only newbies buy it.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #119,668
  • May 30, 2021 12:22am May 30, 2021 12:22am
when I first come to know Steve Nison, CMT. I get very excited.
I have watched his trading video, I have read his books. I was too excited, I thought He is the number 1 man. He knows something.

As I grow more, I backdated candlesticks, All I understand is complete BS. Every time I bucktested his work I found BS results. Complete BS, course seller. Nothing else.
Yes By understanding candlesticks you have very little edge but Not enough to make consistent return.
Candlesticks is a trap.
When ever I listen to a people say this candlesticks pattern works so well, I immediately understand he don't do backtest and he is a newbie.

Go Backtest, The candle you think price will go up or down market that candle and play forward you will see the result. don't do backtest in historical chart. Do work forward test.

Steve Nison, CMT course seller.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #119,669
  • May 30, 2021 12:51am May 30, 2021 12:51am
Quoting hasib
when I first come to know Steve Nison, CMT. I get very excited. I have watched his trading video, I have read his books. I was too excited, I thought He is the number 1 man. He knows something. As I grow more, I backdated candlesticks, All I understand is complete BS. Every time I bucktested his work I found BS results. Complete BS, course seller. Nothing else. Yes By understanding candlesticks you have very little edge but Not enough to make consistent return. Candlesticks is a trap. When ever I listen to a people say this candlesticks pattern...

hey @hasib

what do you think of Steve Mauro BTMM?

{ pdf } click to download.

He has many followers too.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #119,670
  • May 30, 2021 1:48am May 30, 2021 1:48am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} hey @hasib what do you think of Steve Mauro BTMM? { pdf } click to download. He has many followers too.
I am not good at Market maker method. But I have see few video about market maker method. I know a man in YouTube, who trade Us30 with market maker method. He claim he make large amount of money with market maker method.

I have respect for Tom Bulkowski. he give backtest based pattern. if anyone read and understand some of his work they will get a edge. Again most of the pattern is subjective. The better we understand market condition better we will do.
Truth is past price is not indication of the future price movement. With trading past price we have to be always careful about money management and risk management.
by Adding too many indicator traders think they can predict the market which is wrong. Truth is there is no technical leading indicator. It can't be leading because technical indicator can't lead the price. It can predict but that prediction is wrong that is why e.g. stoch indicator has low win rate.
There are few price psychology traders follow to trade the market.
for example traders who thing market move with the direction they use ma and ha. traders think price will reverse from current price they use Pivot and s&R. Both group of people can be wrong and can make money. some people who has experience with both method think there is always better price the open trade. The care bout the price not candlesticks not bar chart price means price. they buy at relative high, when they buy the look for better price. they sell relative low, when they sell relative low the look for better price.
forex is complex instrument than stock index. People make more money in stock because stock is less complex instrument, when traders buy price go up when sell go down. Forex is not like that there are many price mechanism involved in forex. Traders play a very small roll here in fx. That is why most of institutional investor look to trade stock and stock index rather than forex. forex is popular in retail people, because retail people has less knowledge, less analytical ability. Many variable involve in forex that is why knowledgeable player try to avoid fx market all together.

personal opinion
Thanks for sharing the pdf I will read it.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #119,671
  • May 30, 2021 2:19am May 30, 2021 2:19am
Quoting hasib
{quote} I am not good at Market maker method. But I have see few video about market maker method. I know a man in YouTube, who trade Us30 with market maker method. He claim he make large amount of money with market maker method. I have respect for Tom Bulkowski. he give backtest based pattern. if anyone read and understand some of his work they will get a edge. Again most of the pattern is subjective. The better we understand market condition better we will do. Truth is past price is not indication of the future price movement. With trading past...
Adding too many indicator traders think they can predict the market which is wrong. Truth is there is no technical leading indicator. It can't be leading because technical indicator can't lead the price.
My edge: LAGGING indicators examined on multiple timeframes.
No price bars (another lagging indicator) needed.
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To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #119,672
  • May 30, 2021 4:19am May 30, 2021 4:19am
Quoting hasib
My improvement of the TMS and TMSR system. I will share it if anyone interested. I am studying old thread for ideas. and Testing many indicator for improvement. {image}
Hasib

Kindly share with me. I am very much interested
Thnx mate
  • #119,673
  • Edited 5:57am May 30, 2021 5:29am | Edited 5:57am
Quoting KarooVellies
{quote} Hasib Kindly share with me. I am very much interested Thnx mate
Hi KarooVellies
when market is smoothly moving you will find some good entry with this indicators. Add heiken ashi.
for Trend direction you can use 200 and 50 ema.
Careful when price is not moving smoothly you will lose lot of trade. Backtest it before applying.
I drop RSI because in my backtest RSI don't improve the system.
You can try BB Trend flat for filtering out some bad trade.
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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Double smoothed T3.ex4   26 KB | 392 downloads
File Type: ex4 Gann averages high-low activator_mtf 3_1.ex4   79 KB | 386 downloads
File Type: ex4 BB Trend Flat.ex4   632 KB | 449 downloads
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #119,674
  • May 30, 2021 5:42am May 30, 2021 5:42am
Quoting KarooVellies
{quote} Hasib Kindly share with me. I am very much interested Thnx mate
when market is in good condition you will win some good trade. when market condition is not good you will get lot of bad trade.
so many system developer don't say or don't know their system is not working.
so test it. if you find any improvement let us know.
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MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #119,675
  • Edited 9:11am May 30, 2021 7:59am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting hasib
{quote} Hi KarooVellies when market is smoothly moving you will find some good entry with this indicators. Add heiken ashi. for Trend direction you can use 200 and 50 ema. Careful when price is not moving smoothly you will lose lot of trade. Backtest it before applying. I drop RSI because in my backtest RSI don't improve the system. You can try BB Trend flat for filtering out some bad trade. {file} {file} {file} {image}
Nice that you have some ideas to present. But did you forget that this the the TMS thread that BigE started so that ONLY his 5-method would be discussed here? I am confident that you read his post where he stated that.

So, how about you open a new thread and take the discussion of your latest ideas there?

Addendum:
And if you open said thread, then I will offer an explanation of why from the thicker green Vline to the thicker red Vline is the potential buy zone, and why magenta area is the No Fly Zone, using a LAGGING indicator.

Also, why there is only a single buy trade, the thinner green Vline.

Note that this M5 image covers about the same period as your image.
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To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #119,676
  • May 30, 2021 10:47am May 30, 2021 10:47am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Nice that you have some ideas to present. But did you forget that this the the TMS thread that BigE started so that ONLY his 5-method would be discussed here? I am confident that you read his post where he stated that. So, how about you open a new thread and take the discussion of your latest ideas there? Addendum: And if you open said thread, then I will offer an explanation of why from the thicker green Vline to the thicker red Vline is the potential buy zone, and why magenta area is the No Fly Zone, using a LAGGING indicator. Also, why...
Don't argue, Don't act like your something. Learn price action.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Price_Action.pdf   128 KB | 486 downloads
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #119,677
  • May 30, 2021 10:59am May 30, 2021 10:59am
Quoting hasib
{quote} Don't argue, Don't act like your something. Learn price action. {image}
How about you remove that chip from your shoulder before you continue?

Apparently, you need to check the definition of "argue".

These are YOUR WORDS from post#119675
Quoting Hasib
if you find any improvement let us know.
I made an offer to explain an IMPROVEMENT, that YOU asked to be informed about!
No problem for me to not share the information.

It's a pity that you are so insecure in your trading/analytical abilities that you respond with such negativity.

Good luck--you'll need it.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #119,678
  • May 30, 2021 1:34pm May 30, 2021 1:34pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} How about you remove that chip from your shoulder before you continue? Apparently, you need to check the definition of "argue". These are YOUR WORDS from post#119675 {quote} I made an offer to explain an IMPROVEMENT, that YOU asked to be informed about! No problem for me to not share the information. It's a pity that you are so insecure in your trading/analytical abilities that you respond with such negativity. Good luck--you'll need it.
You already spread so many negativity here in ff. when you try to give good fatback we think you start again your old work.
anyway did your read Price action pdf. Hope that help you.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #119,679
  • May 30, 2021 1:56pm May 30, 2021 1:56pm
According to steve nison candlesticks analysis what will happen next week. I mean what is the next expected candle?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #119,680
  • May 30, 2021 3:48pm May 30, 2021 3:48pm
Quoting hasib
{quote} Don't argue, Don't act like your something. Learn price action. {image}
Hi Hasib did you know that price action lag price the same way that indicators lag price.

Where does indicators get information from?
> What happened in the past.
Where does price action get information from?
> What happened in the past.
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