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  • #1,194,301
  • May 17, 2021 5:11pm May 17, 2021 5:11pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Take a look at all these websites for sentiment. Retail adding shorts. That is what happens when they don't take fundamentals and COT into consideration or as a tool in trading. Same mistake over, over,over,over and over again. Some people are immune to good advice. https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
That's true. Generally speaking, EURUSD is bullish. But retracements are to be expected.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,194,302
  • May 17, 2021 5:16pm May 17, 2021 5:16pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
EU became super bearish between 2150-60 today...2050 next. Technicals say down, fundamentals say down...smart money says down.
Wrong.

Technical shows bullish, fundamentals bullish, COT(banks, financial institutions) bullish, and retail are majority bearish. Evidence speaks for itself. EURUSD bullish.

A Bank of England official said in an interview that negative interest rates have worked “fairly well” in Europe, as the U.K. central bank continues to evaluate joining the European Central Bank with sub-zero interest rates. ... “We will be in the world of low interest rates for a long time.
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  • #1,194,303
  • May 17, 2021 5:26pm May 17, 2021 5:26pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Wrong. Technical shows bullish, fundamentals bullish, COT(banks, financial institutions) bullish, and retail are majority bearish. Evidence speaks for itself. EURUSD bullish. {image}
When a drop happens...you will read the COT, with many shorts added...since its always behind the real action...and then you will claim its bearish...late again. COT is useless, its like checking what was the weather last week and predicting tomorrow's weather from it.

Just checking the LATEST weather report for New York...very useful.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,194,304
  • May 17, 2021 5:32pm May 17, 2021 5:32pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} When a drop happens...you will read the COT, with many shorts added...since its always behind the real action...and then you will claim its bearish...late again. COT is useless, its like checking what was the weather last week and predicting tomorrow's weather from it.
Wrong.

You think its useless because you do not know how to apply it into trading. I have proven, so did the others, trading macro with currency trading with technicals does work and will make you good money. A small pullback may happen. More COT(banks and institutions) have added long positions on EURUSD, so they would not be risking millions/billions to make that mistake. EURUSD will go up more. No one is late, smart money is on time. The only ones that are unfortunately behind are retail traders. They keep adding shorts positions and they keep getting knocked out. Evidence speaks for itself. COT are a very good useful tool.
  • #1,194,305
  • May 17, 2021 5:52pm May 17, 2021 5:52pm
Small bull trap from yesterday.
Beware the downside.
  • #1,194,306
  • May 17, 2021 6:00pm May 17, 2021 6:00pm
So to sum it up, I have explained as much as I can. Shared as much as I can. This message is to new traders and struggling traders. It is your money and your choice, at the end of day it is your decision what are you going to do either buy/sell or stay on the side until you are sure what to do. Beware of traders that think they know, but actually don't know and are causing more harm then good to new and struggling traders. That is all I can say and do. It is your choice. You've been warned.

Also keep in mind, if you are serious about becoming full time trader/investor, it is 80% fundamentals and 20% technicals.
  • #1,194,307
  • May 17, 2021 6:15pm May 17, 2021 6:15pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} ...More COT(banks and institutions) have added long positions on EURUSD, so they would not be risking millions/billions to make that mistake...
This is the most significant and convincing point.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,194,308
  • May 17, 2021 6:23pm May 17, 2021 6:23pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} This is the most significant and convincing point.
No, its not...hedge funds and other big institutions were also crazy long at 1.23-25 few years back...and suffered a 1500+ pip drawdown...they lose billions all the time, its not hard to find stories proving their bad decisions. But they can afford to be stupid...they always get a bailout, so the taxpayers pay for their stupidity.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,194,309
  • May 17, 2021 6:26pm May 17, 2021 6:26pm
Quoting Techanalyst
So to sum it up, I have explained as much as I can. Shared as much as I can. This message is to new traders and struggling traders. It is your money and your choice, at the end of day it is your decision what are you going to do either buy/sell or stay on the side until you are sure what to do. Beware of traders that think they know, but actually don't know and are causing more harm then good to new and struggling traders. That is all I can say and do. It is your choice. You've been warned. Also keep in mind, if you are serious about becoming full...
You forget there is many full time traders who are scalpers and never consider fundamentals.
There is always markets within a market that allow profits for traders regardless of fundamentals.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,194,310
  • May 17, 2021 6:27pm May 17, 2021 6:27pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} No, its not...hedge funds and other big institutions were also crazy long at 1.23-25 few years back...and suffered a 1500+ pip drawdown...they lose billions all the time, its not hard to find stories proving their bad decisions. But they can afford to be stupid...they always get a bailout, so the taxpayers pay for their stupidity.
No they were not. I shared here the history of COT and couldn't find one wrong. Stop talking nonsense. You want to prove so hard that retail are smarter than institutions. You're wrong.
  • #1,194,311
  • May 17, 2021 6:28pm May 17, 2021 6:28pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} You forget there is many full time traders who are scalpers and never consider fundamentals. There is always markets within a market that allow profits for traders regardless of fundamentals.
There are very few successful day/scalper traders, that are consistantly profitable. All the other eventually end up blowing their whole account. Longer term trading is different, more relaxed and can be thought to make a full time job and profit. With scalping and day trading is very hard to stay profitable all the time. At one point you must learn to trade or at least try to trade like banks and institutions do it. It is better and less stressful.
  • #1,194,312
  • May 17, 2021 6:28pm May 17, 2021 6:28pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Take a look at all these websites for sentiment. Retail adding shorts. That is what happens when they don't take fundamentals and COT into consideration or as a tool in trading. Same mistake over, over,over,over and over again. Some people are immune to good advice. https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
HI Techanalyst, could you tell me where can you take COT
Sincere
  • #1,194,313
  • May 17, 2021 6:28pm May 17, 2021 6:28pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} No they were not. I shared here the history of COT and couldn't find one wrong. Stop talking nonsense. You want to prove so hard that retail are smarter than institutions. You're wrong.
I never said retailers are smarter...they are just as dumb as hedge fund traders. Banks/dealers are the smart money.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,194,314
  • May 17, 2021 6:36pm May 17, 2021 6:36pm
Quoting potay90
{quote} HI Techanalyst, could you tell me where can you take COT Sincere

CFTC and under market data& economic analysis you will see commitment of traders(COT) click on it. Scroll down and where you see Chicago Mercantile Exchange there is long and short format. I only use short format and futures only. That is all you need for currency trading. Click on the short format under future only and you will find currencies and other assets. If you are not sure how to use COT reports, let me know I will provide some good youtube videos with good explanations how to use it. It very simple and very effective tool. Only look at "NON-COMMERCIALS" they are banks and institutions.
  • #1,194,315
  • May 17, 2021 6:38pm May 17, 2021 6:38pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I never said retailers are smarter...they are just as dumb as hedge fund traders. Banks/dealers are the smart money.
And what do you think COT are than?
  • #1,194,316
  • May 17, 2021 6:40pm May 17, 2021 6:40pm
STOP IT!!
This is the way!
Trade on yellow line...
Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6a91fe4ae0035bba70492aa9e227cead.png Size: 25 KB

Just kidding
But I like it.

Trade safe
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #1,194,317
  • May 17, 2021 6:41pm May 17, 2021 6:41pm
February 2018 - asset managers heavily long on EU.

Attached Image

March 2018 - even more longs and less shorts on EU.

Attached Image

Result? EU was dropping 2 years straight since april...
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,194,318
  • May 17, 2021 6:59pm May 17, 2021 6:59pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
February 2018 - asset managers heavily long on EU. {image} March 2018 - even more longs and less shorts on EU. {image} Result? EU was dropping 2 years straight since april...
Sure I see it, so your evidence is by looking at 2018 for 2-3 months that COT are completely useless? It is still very useful, like I said it is a very good tool. But you apply it to supply/demand strategy on the charts or technicals. If you were trading at that time, you look at the COT reports, and you look at the chart, and it shows that it is going bearish, than COT tool has not been a reliable tool at that time so don't use it, use what the chart tells you for that time. That's it. No one is right 100%. It's funny once in a while when something is wrong people point out to that. But they never point out to 80-90% of winnings. As soon as something goes wrong for a little while, everyone notices that. It's pathetic.

Here is a chart from that month Feb.2018. You see the market ranging like that on the chart and you see it breaking down you sell. That's it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDdaily.png Size: 43 KB
  • #1,194,319
  • May 17, 2021 7:01pm May 17, 2021 7:01pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} CFTC and under market data& economic analysis you will see commitment of traders(COT) click on it. Scroll down and where you see Chicago Mercantile Exchange there is long and short format. I only use short format and futures only. That is all you need for currency trading. Click on the short format under future only and you will find currencies and other assets. If you are not sure how to use COT reports, let me know I will provide some good youtube videos with good explanations how to use it. It very simple and very effective tool. Only...
Thank you very much for your support, could you pls give some video about learing COT.
Buy the way relate to fundamental, how could you sum up, i mean normaly i read data from this website, sometime in investing, however there is a lot of analysis so and some time is give me overhelming.
  • #1,194,320
  • May 17, 2021 7:10pm May 17, 2021 7:10pm
Quoting potay90
{quote} Thank you very much for your support, could you pls give some video about learing COT. Buy the way relate to fundamental, how could you sum up, i mean normaly i read data from this website, sometime in investing, however there is a lot of analysis so and some time is give me overhelming.

https://www.youtube.com/c/MagicTrader/videos


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As for applying fundamentals into longer term trading/investing, and creating excel sheets like keeping a track of interest rates and macros like that look at these videos:

https://www.youtube.com/c/InstituteofTrading/videos



Take your time, go through the videos, write it down, on paper or excel sheets, whatever you are comfortable. Study it, look at the charts, save the charts, record it, whatever you need to do. It will help, you will get it, you will learn and understand the reality of the market and how it works.
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