AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Majors

AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2075
Although euro's rebound from yesterday's low at 1.2052 (Europe) to 1.2099 in New York due to intra-day retreat in U.S. yields suggests decline from Tuesday's 10-week peak at 1.2181 has made a temporary bottom, outlook remains bearish for further weakness after consolidation, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above daily sup at 1.1987.

Only a daily close above 1.2116 dampens bearish view and risks stronger gain to 1.2130/40 before prospect of decline next week.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Australia consumer inflation experience.
U.S. import prices, export prices, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, U. Mich. sentiment, Canada manufacturing sales, wholesales trade.

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AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.28
Despite the greenback's rally on Wednesday on the release of upbeat U.S. inflation data to a 1-month peak at 109.78 yesterday, intra-day retreat suggests the upmove from March's bottom at 107.49 has possibly made a temporary top there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen, however, 108.98/05 should remain intact and yield another rebound early next week.

On the upside, only above 109.65 would revive bullishness for a re-test of said resistance, break would head to 110.05/10 before prospect of correction.

T.G.I.F., however, U.S. will later release a slew eco. data (please refer to our EI page for details) which are expected to move the buck. Please pay attention to retail sales, industrial production n later University of Michigan consumer confidence, a higher-than-expected reading on these data vs forecast will give usd a boost. Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non-voter) will speak at 17:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2150
Fri's rally from 1.2072 to 1.2147 on renewed usd's weakness due to soft U.S. data and yields suggests pullback from last Tuesday's fresh 10-week peak at 1.2181 has possibly ended, above 1.2152 would bring re-test of said May's high, overbought condition should cap price below 1.2242 (Feb high).

On the downside, only below 1.2104/07 sup 'prolongs' choppy swings below 1.2181 and risks weakness to 1.2072 but reckon 1.2052 should hold.

Data to be released next week :
China house prices, industrial output, retail sales,
U.K. rightmove house price, Japan corporation goods price, machinery orders, Swiss producer/import price, Italy CPI.
Canada housing starts, U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, NAHB housing market index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.28
Despite the greenback's rally last Wednesday on the release of upbeat U.S. inflation data to a 1-month peak at 109.78 Thursday, subsequent retreat on weak US retail sales data Friday suggests the upmove from March's bottom at 107.49 has possibly made a temporary top there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen, however, 108.98/05 should remain intact and yield another rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.65 would revive bullishness for a re-test of said resistance, break would head to 110.05/10 before prospect of correction.

On the data front, U.S. will later release New York fed mfg index n then NAHB housing market index.
Fed's Vice Chairman Clarida will speak at a financial forum at 14:05GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2155
Euro's gain to 1.2168 (Europe) on Monday suggests pullback from last Tuesday's 10-week high at 1.2181 has ended last week at 1.2052 (Thursday) and as long as 1.2104/07 holds, upside bias remains for recent upmove from 1.1705 (Mar low) to extend marginal gain, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price well below daily pivotal res at 1.2242.

Below 1.2104 signals top is made, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.2072, then 1.2052 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan GDP, Tertiary industry activities, New Zealand GDT price index
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Italy trade balance, EU employment change, trade balance, GDP.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook.

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AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.88
Despite the greenback's rally last Wednesday on the release of upbeat U.S. inflation data to a 1-month peak at 109.78 Thursday, subsequent retreat on weak US retail sales data Friday suggests the upmove from March's bottom at 107.49 has possibly made a temporary top there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen, however, 108.98/05 should remain intact and yield another rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.65 would revive bullishness for a re-test of said resistance, break would head to 110.05/10 before prospect of correction.

On the data front, U.S. will release 2nd-tier eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details), however, we have Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) n Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non-voter) speaking in New York session ahead of release of Wednesday's Fed minutes.

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AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2179
Euro's intra-day selloff in New York morning from 1.2238 to as low as 1.2161 due to broad-based usd's rally in tandem with U.S. yields following release of Fed's minutes signals recent upmove has made a temporary top at Wednesday's 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2245 and a long-awaited correction has taken place.

Expect price to resume said decline after consolidation but near term oversold condition may limit weakness to 1.2104/07 and only above 1.2200/10 dampens bearishness, risks 1.2233/38.

The euro area countries will release a slew of 2nd-tier eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details). We have ECB Chief Economist Lane speaking at 08:00GMT, then ECB Preseident Lagards will speak at 12:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.96
Despite the dollar's selloff from 109.33 to as low as 108.58 yesterday, subsequent strong rebound to 109.30 in Asia today due to rising U.S. yields following the release of hawkish FOMC minutes suggests near term decline from last week's 1-month peak at 109.78 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 109.50, however, said top would hold on first testing.

On the downside, only below 108.58 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of rise from 107.48 (April) to 108.35/36.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan Machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia employment change, unemployment change.
Germany producer prices, EU construction output, current account, U.K. CBI trends orders.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuous jobless claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing index, leading index change, Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index.

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AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2225
As euro has risen again yesterday's due to renewed risk sentiment on falling U.S. yields after strong retreat from Wednesday's 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2245 to 1.2161, above said res would extend recent upmove marginally, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.2309.

On the downside, below 1.2180 signals intra-day top is in place and heads back to 1.2161, break there needed to revive bearishness for stronger correction towards 1.2127 early next week.

Today is PMI day, France will kick off with Markit manufacturing and service PMI at 07:15 GMT, followed by Germany at 07:30 GMT and then EZ at 08:00 GMT. Market forecast for EZ are 62.5 and 52.3 for manufacturing PMI and services PMI respectively, versus prior readings of 62.9 and 50.5.
We also have ECB President Christine Lagarde scheduled to speak at 11:00 GMT in Eurogroup and informal ECONFIN meetings in Lisbon, Portugal, which would be followed by a press conference.

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AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.65
Despite dollar's strong rebound on Wednesday from 108.58 to 109.30 in Australia yesterday due to hawkish Fed minutes, subsequent fall to 108.76, then intra-day break there suggests decline from May's 1-month 109.78 peak would resume and extend marginally, however, oversold condition should prevent steep fall below 108.35/36 and yield another bounce.

On the upside, above 108.89 (Asia) would risk stronger retracement to 109.05/10 but 109.30/33 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, Japan nationwide CPI, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, U.K. retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss industrial production, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, consumer confidence.
Canada retail sales, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sale.

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AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2180
Euro's decline from 1.2239 (Asia) to 1.2162 Fri after upbeat U.S. PMI data suggests choppy trading below Wednesday's 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2245 would continuous with downside bias, a firm break of 1.2161 (reaction low) would signal a long-overdue correction of recent upmove has taken place, however, reckon 1.2104/07 would contain weakness.

Only above 1.2210/15 prolongs volatile sideways swings and may risk another rise back to 1.2240/45 but loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.2270/80.

No eco. data is due out today, however, we have ECB board member McCaul speaking at a conference at 13:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.76
Despite dollar's strong rebound from 108.58 last Wednesday to 109.30 on Thursday due to hawkish Fed minutes, subsequent fall to 108.61 on Friday there suggests decline from May's 1-month 109.78 peak would resume and extend marginally, however, oversold condition should prevent steep fall below 108.35/36 and yield another bounce.

On the upside, above 108.89 (Asia) would risk stronger retracement to 109.05/10 but 109.30/33 should cap upside.

Data to be released next week :
New Zealand retail sales on Monday.
Market holidays in Germany, France and Switzerland.

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AceTraderFx May 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2225
Yeeterday's rise from 1.2173 to 1.2229 (New York) due to renewed usd's weakness on return of risk sentiment suggests choppy trading inside recent 1.2245-1.2161 range would continue with upside bias, above 1.2245 would extend recent upmove from 1.1705 (March) to marginally higher, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price at 1.2300.

On the downside, only below 1.2161 shifts risk to the downside for a stronger correction to 1.2127, then later 1.2104/07.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Germany GDP, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, UK PSNB GBP, PSNCR GBP, CBI distributive trades.
U.S. building permits, redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence, new home sales, Richmond Fed's manufacturing index.

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AceTraderFx May 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.74
Although the greenback's intra-day break below last Wednesday's low at 108.58 signals decline from May's 1-month peak at 109.78 has once again resumed and marginal weakness is like to be seen, near term loss of momentum would keep price above daily support at 108.35 and yield a much-needed rebound later this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 108.35 would bring stronger retracement of upmove from 107.49 (April) to 107.90/00.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for detail.
We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York morning session.

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AceTraderFx May 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2249
Euro's retreat from Tue's fresh 4-1/2 month peak of 1.2266 (New York) would bring initial consolidation before prospect of marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum is expected to cap price below daily res at 1.2309 and yield a long-overdue correction.

A daily close below 1.2227 (NY low) would be first signal temporary top is made and yield weakness to 1.2087, then 1.2161/62.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, RBNZ rate decision, Australia construction work done, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
France business climate, consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA Mortgage.

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AceTraderFx May 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.84
Although the greenback's intra-day break below last Wednesday's low at 108.58 signals decline from May's 1-month peak at 109.78 has once again resumed and marginal weakness is like to be seen, near term loss of momentum would keep price above daily support at 108.35 and yield a much-needed rebound later this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 108.35 would bring stronger retracement of upmove from 107.49 (April) to 107.90/00.

On the U.S. data front, the only data due out is MBA mortgage applications.
We also have a number Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session (please refer to our EI page for details).

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AceTraderFx May 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.10171.2187
Yesterday's selloff from 1.2262 (Asia) to as low as 1.2183 due to broad-based usd's rebound in New York strongly suggests euro's recent upmove has made a temporary top at Tue's fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 1.2161 sup, a daily close below there would yield stronger retracement towards 1.2127.

Only above 1.2240/45 may risk re-test of 1.2266, however, 'loss of momentum' should limit gain to 1.2280/90.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia capital expenditure, building capex.
Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, non-farm payrolls, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, trade balance.
U.S. durable goods, durable ex-transport, durable ex-defence, GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, Continuous jobless claims, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing, Canada average weekly earnings.

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The dollar found support on Thursday from emerging views the Federal Reserve is slowly but surely edging towards a discussion about tightening monetary policy, and as traders await crucial U.S. inflation data this week.
In a market heavily short dollars, the mere suggestion of tapering is enough to temper further selling and against the euro and the yen the dollar held late Wednesday gains early in the Thursday Asia session

AceTraderFx May 27: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.10
Despite the greenback's 1-tick break below last Wednesday's low at 108.58 on Tuesday, subsequent rally to 109.20 in Asia today signals decline from May's 1-month peak at 109.78 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 109.30/33, then 109.50, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below aforesaid top.

On the downside, only below 108.71 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness to 108.57.

We have data dump in the U.S. later today, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to release of PCE n core PCE, GDP adn weekly jobless claims, if actual readings come in stronger than street forecast, the greenback would gain further.

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AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2192
Euro's decline from Tuesday's fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 to as low as 1.2176 (Asia) yesterday suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and subsequent sideways swings in New York would bring initial consolidation before down, a daily close below previous good sup at 1.2261 would pressure price towards 1.2127 early next week.

Only above 1.2235/40 dampens daily bearish view and may risk another rise back to 1.2262/66 which should hold on 1st testing.

Ahead of release of U.S. key inflation data later today, we have date dump from the euro area, pls refer to our Economic Indicator page for details n pay attention to EU's bus. cimate n eco. sentiment at 09:00GMT.
ECB President Largade n Board member Panetta will participate in virtual G7 FinMin n cenbank Governors' meeting.
We also have ECB's Villeroy and Enria speaking at 07:00GMT and 11:00GMT respectively

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