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  • #130,821
  • Apr 25, 2021 4:51am Apr 25, 2021 4:51am
Quoting Godzilla
still happy with my losing short. it was the right move for me. I expected deep pullback according my rules. everything was correct technically for me. moment bears lost it imho i.e moment big banks stepped in the last hour to change the tide. even at this point it was 63% bearish retail sentiment (despite increasing 80 pips!). perhaps this is why they stepped in. i wont b changnig anything and the rationale will allow me to sleep at night. {image}
At the end of the day, we have to live with our self, and be true to ourselves especially in trading! I find that the M5 / M12 give plenty to clues to the short term what is going on and if price is going to reverse however, easy to say later! I didn't go short due to the M5/M12 or M20 as they didn't give multiple rejections on the short term which, despite my belief that I felt price should reverse, it had other ideas! So I traded off the M5, took a few dollars and left. I should have gotten in long, but I felt uncomfortable as I felt it was too OB! Again, our convictions really are important!
Next week is a new week, new opportunities, and the EU will give back some dollars if we stalk it with precision, care and determination!
  • #130,822
  • Apr 25, 2021 6:46am Apr 25, 2021 6:46am
EURUSD has been on an uptrend for the past 3 weeks forming the LOTW on Mondays. Been breaking previous OB's. Waiting to Buy tomorrow.
  • #130,823
  • Apr 25, 2021 12:44pm Apr 25, 2021 12:44pm
If Treasury and stock markets stay stable next week will be the bomb. Maybe we top the January highs, would be so unexpected and so beautiful at the same time.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,824
  • Edited 1:29pm Apr 25, 2021 1:15pm | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting Ihlas
My first impression was to short, but looking at the bigger picture we will definitely go long. We will see 1.22410.

WOOOOO yes Ihlas ! that would be impressive indeed !

But I cant let myself look further any than .2130s - 1.2160s, as that is the next historic level, or than a potentially ferocious reversal back below .2000. And between these two next extremes, countless of other interesting scenarios.

But again, in the face of this "bull" of a move , if it doesnt lose steam by then, even those levels might not mean much.

Thats one of the beauties of trends !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,825
  • Edited 1:36pm Apr 25, 2021 1:25pm | Edited 1:36pm
Quoting four.owls
{quote} At the end of the day, we have to live with our self, and be true to ourselves especially in trading! I find that the M5 / M12 give plenty to clues to the short term what is going on and if price is going to reverse however, easy to say later! I didn't go short due to the M5/M12 or M20 as they didn't give multiple rejections on the short term which, despite my belief that I felt price should reverse, it had other ideas! So I traded off the M5, took a few dollars and left. I should have gotten in long, but I felt uncomfortable as I felt it...

Thank you for sharing your great work four.owls

Staying true to oneself and ones convictions is often overlooked. But by doing so, we are even better armed to tackle even the toughest challenge that the price sends our way, and come out stronger still.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,826
  • Edited 3:14pm Apr 25, 2021 2:30pm | Edited 3:14pm
Quoting nic9man
If Treasury and stock markets stay stable next week will be the bomb. Maybe we top the January highs, would be so unexpected and so beautiful at the same time.
Next week ?????! you mean now or first week of May ? Boy, everything IS Possible. Last time Ive had a similar streak of longs was just last summer ! Feels like yesterday !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,827
  • Apr 25, 2021 3:43pm Apr 25, 2021 3:43pm
Here's a different view, H1 trend channel and a fourier extrapolator.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d6a1bc9074d5b1ba66663facdb83f8f5.png Size: 18 KB
  • #130,828
  • Apr 25, 2021 4:02pm Apr 25, 2021 4:02pm
Quoting ursinho4711
Here's a different view, H1 trend channel and a fourier extrapolator. {image}
Beautiful! this is very close imagery to one of the most likely scenarios I have a plan for.

After that, as long as 2050 - 2100 holds firm and becomes support, this weeks long uptrend will have filled up its tank !

But I stay as much prepared for a continuation, a reversal to sell, and also a ranging period, as we might be struggling through these levels for awhile.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,829
  • Apr 25, 2021 4:56pm Apr 25, 2021 4:56pm
I know a crazy but very successful trend trader whos rules would have him buy this early and right here above the high. The main reason being it seems to many many retails traders he will buy from, that price is at its maximum, even though the trend shows no signs of fatigue. He is somewhat of a rare gem hunter I guess. Hell probably have a TP minimum 20x bigger than its SL and probably has an above 60% chance of getting stopped out; but will remain as consistently profitable and as cocky as always. Crazy Chucky !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,830
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:15pm Apr 25, 2021 5:15pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} Next week ?????! you mean now or first week of May ? Boy, everything IS Possible. Last time Ive had a similar streak of longs was just last summer ! Feels like yesterday !
I meant this week, last April week, due to rebalancing and short squeeze happening simultaneously.
Sold 10% of my long position on Friday at 1.2098 though, just to be able to reload more if we should revisit 1.20 again.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,831
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:26pm Apr 25, 2021 5:26pm
Quoting nic9man
{quote} I meant this week, last April week, due to rebalancing and short squeeze happening simultaneously. Sold 10% of my long position on Friday at 1.2098 though, just in case. Most still open.
Nice to have your input on that as I know nothing about it. Such a rise would make it even more interesting !

Very well done with your longs, Im very glad to here it. I am about to cash in some also, just waiting to get a countertrend setup.

P.S To my great surprise, got my volatility alarms around 7 hours before the close to have me adjust my last positions SL accordingly and got 5 separate volatility based setups, and 1 trend scalp. Only my 1st momentum failed in a small loss. Been a long long time I had not had to manage anything that serious at end of friday; a remarkable day.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,832
  • Apr 25, 2021 5:46pm Apr 25, 2021 5:46pm
Hi guys,
-The trend is now low !

Good week to everyone
"No pain no gain"
  • #130,833
  • Apr 25, 2021 6:02pm Apr 25, 2021 6:02pm
Im surprised to read some traders over here expecting EU to head to 1.23/1.24 without a retrace, well if history gave us a lesson in the past is when you hear some extreme views like these it would be the right time to start building a short position!

Personally i expect some further north move to somewhere between 1.2120-1.2140 (possible to overshoot to 1.2165 which would be ideal for me) before a massive correction of approx 600-700 pips
  • #130,834
  • Apr 25, 2021 6:06pm Apr 25, 2021 6:06pm
I think it will only start a bigger retrace after the month has ended.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #130,835
  • Apr 25, 2021 6:18pm Apr 25, 2021 6:18pm
Hello guys
The trend is low


3hours short from today's entry point.
Big sign of bearishness.

Good week ahead to everyone
  • #130,836
  • Apr 25, 2021 6:18pm Apr 25, 2021 6:18pm
Quoting nic9man
I think it will only start a bigger retrace after the month has ended.

Same thing i was thinking.
  • #130,837
  • Apr 25, 2021 6:20pm Apr 25, 2021 6:20pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
Im surprised to read some traders over here expecting EU to head to 1.23/1.24 without a retrace, well if history gave us a lesson in the past is when you hear some extreme views like these it would be the right time to start building a short position! Personally i expect some further north move to somewhere between 1.2120-1.2140 (possible to overshoot to 1.2165 which would be ideal for me) before a massive correction of approx 600-700 pips
Hi, fxmasterdxb, good points, I agree 100% that a correction will happen.

Strange what you say about bulls here, as I can only remember one or 2 traders here thinking that far and never one without a retrace, so I am surprised also that I missed those. Anyways, retracements are natural so those analysis without them are definitely strange !

And I found that most posts here lately have been about it going down... I guess I skipped more than I thought.


I myself am waiting for it to be back below -+2050 to consider sells or to reach 2130-60s, then will see.

I have been riding this momentum all month and will wait till it breaks before stopping.

At every new high, the probability of a correction is greater, and I planned for that and a reversal also.

I actually got a new buy stop and I guess, if it gets triggered, I might just be buying from you ?

Joke aside, there is enough to go around. I personally wouldnt mind it reversing here. I am a real BULLBEAR at heart!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,838
  • Apr 25, 2021 6:27pm Apr 25, 2021 6:27pm
Quoting nic9man
I think it will only start a bigger retrace after the month has ended.

Interesting, and around how big a retrace?
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #130,839
  • Apr 25, 2021 6:38pm Apr 25, 2021 6:38pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} Hi, fxmasterdxb, good points, I agree 100% that a correction will happen. Strange what you say about bulls here, as I can only remember one or 2 traders here thinking that far and never one without a retrace, so I am surprised also that I missed those. Anyways, retracements are natural so those analysis without them are definitely strange ! And I found that most posts here lately have been about it going down... I guess I skipped more than I thought. I myself am waiting for it to be back...


Making profits as bulls
Making profits as bears

  • #130,840
  • Apr 25, 2021 6:41pm Apr 25, 2021 6:41pm
Quoting decklinz
{quote} Making profits as bulls Making profits as bears
Right on ! I actually got a new scalp long to get triggered only 1 pip from here, but its only got 4 minutes before it expires !!! Just trending..
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
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