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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #83,841
  • Apr 22, 2021 9:23am Apr 22, 2021 9:23am
nothing really conclusive, trying to find some support....maybe the crosses are also weighing on the pair
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Get the Lag out
  • #83,842
  • Apr 22, 2021 10:29am Apr 22, 2021 10:29am
Quoting ZeroLag
nothing really conclusive, trying to find some support....maybe the crosses are also weighing on the pair {image}
I'd say buyer beware.

Seasonally this is when sellers step in.

The dollar hasn't bounced off support during any news event in the last few weeks.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #83,843
  • Apr 22, 2021 11:03pm Apr 22, 2021 11:03pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} I'd say buyer beware. Seasonally this is when sellers step in. The dollar hasn't bounced off support during any news event in the last few weeks. {image}

you may be right, nothing to indicate a bottom yet....maybe looking a little like a wedge on short term charts...
Get the Lag out
  • #83,844
  • Apr 23, 2021 7:18am Apr 23, 2021 7:18am
Quoting Dzap
Every time we touch 108.3 I sell again
So far so good.
I am a bear until may or june
PATIENCE
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its just a script. join the club
  • #83,845
  • Apr 23, 2021 7:59am Apr 23, 2021 7:59am
Short level to watch. This is a Daily chart. We broke the Head and Shoulders neck. Looking like a one to two week run before we hit a bump.

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,846
  • Apr 23, 2021 8:04am Apr 23, 2021 8:04am
Quoting Dzap
{quote} So far so good. I am a bear until may or june PATIENCE {image}
*puts on seatbelt with a smile*
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  • #83,847
  • Apr 25, 2021 11:27am Apr 25, 2021 11:27am
Quoting Dzap
{quote} So far so good. I am a bear until may or june PATIENCE {image}
I don't think so.

BOJ has stated they don't want USDJPY to fall below 108. I believe they will be buying to end April and continue to push up USDJPY in May. Purely fundamental analysis.

Japan faces a severe aging population and if JPY keeps gaining, it is bad for their exports. I believe USDJPY is due for a rebound, and a pretty fierce one at that.
  • #83,848
  • Apr 25, 2021 2:58pm Apr 25, 2021 2:58pm
Quoting Essoheipo
{quote} I don't think so. BOJ has stated they don't want USDJPY to fall below 108. I believe they will be buying to end April and continue to push up USDJPY in May. Purely fundamental analysis. Japan faces a severe aging population and if JPY keeps gaining, it is bad for their exports. I believe USDJPY is due for a rebound, and a pretty fierce one at that.
This makes no sense for multiple reasons.

The dollar made its big run in 2013/2014 when the fed started tapering and raising rates and Japan was just starting their major QE program.

The fed has stated multiple since covid started they were going to accommodate the economy and rates are staying low.

That makes for a weak dollar.

Also the Yen is viewed as a safe haven so when markets are at all time highs and start rolling over its going to push the dollar even lower .

Long term we have nothing but lower highs and lower lows.

Price has been way below 108 multiple times.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #83,849
  • Apr 25, 2021 3:28pm Apr 25, 2021 3:28pm
Quoting Essoheipo
{quote} I don't think so. BOJ has stated they don't want USDJPY to fall below 108. I believe they will be buying to end April and continue to push up USDJPY in May. Purely fundamental analysis. Japan faces a severe aging population and if JPY keeps gaining, it is bad for their exports. I believe USDJPY is due for a rebound, and a pretty fierce one at that.
Technical analysis says we are in a major correction after the 3month run up. My target for this correction is 105.6. My models consider this a high probability event

If you are very bullish this may be an entry opportunity, depends on your perspective, wish you the best
its just a script. join the club
  • #83,850
  • Apr 26, 2021 8:34am Apr 26, 2021 8:34am
I am long on USD/JPY as I have spoken. I do believe that fundamentally, USD is going to recover. I have a target of 109 by the end of the week. Although USD/JPY bulls have been very sluggish, I believe we still can tag 109 this week.
  • #83,851
  • Apr 26, 2021 9:29am Apr 26, 2021 9:29am
I open more sells above 108

One too early at 107.927
First limit at 108.084 acceptable
Second Limit at 108.150 very nice
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  • #83,852
  • Apr 26, 2021 7:17pm Apr 26, 2021 7:17pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} This makes no sense for multiple reasons. The dollar made its big run in 2013/2014 when the fed started tapering and raising rates and Japan was just starting their major QE program. The fed has stated multiple since covid started they were going to accommodate the economy and rates are staying low. That makes for a weak dollar. Also the Yen is viewed as a safe haven so when markets are at all time highs and start rolling over its going to push the dollar even lower . Long term we have nothing but lower highs and lower lows. Price has been...

Makes no sense you say?? In that case I am definitely watching it. UJ never makes sense lol
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,853
  • Apr 26, 2021 7:56pm Apr 26, 2021 7:56pm
If we observe the daily time frame, you can see that this has been a retracement from January lows to March highs and stopped at 38.2.

Wicks + oversold indicators along with a bullish candle on yesterday's close likely indicate bullish movement to come.

The 38.2 level from March highs to current lows in April lie around 108.81, further up to the 50 level would be 109.222. Right now price could still go either way, but retracement to either 38.2 or 50 levels should be likely at this moment.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #83,854
  • Apr 27, 2021 11:12am Apr 27, 2021 11:12am
Quoting Essoheipo
{quote} I don't think so. BOJ has stated they don't want USDJPY to fall below 108. I believe they will be buying to end April and continue to push up USDJPY in May. Purely fundamental analysis. Japan faces a severe aging population and if JPY keeps gaining, it is bad for their exports. I believe USDJPY is due for a rebound, and a pretty fierce one at that.
Interesting. I was actually wondering why it is going up because literally there was no fundamental reason for it to go up then i saw your post. I don't know when did they stated that number though. Never came across that. Thank you, i will do some research about it.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #83,855
  • Edited 5:44pm Apr 27, 2021 5:25pm | Edited 5:44pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Interesting. I was actually wondering why it is going up because literally there was no fundamental reason for it to go up then i saw your post. I don't know when did they stated that number though. Never came across that. Thank you, i will do some research about it.
It didn't have much to do with the 108 level.

Look at the US 10 year rate.
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  • #83,856
  • Apr 28, 2021 4:11am Apr 28, 2021 4:11am
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} It didn't have much to do with the 108 level. Look at the US 10 year rate. {image}
Same upwards move happened in Japanese Yield Rates too. So it shouldn't differ that much. I couldn't find any statement about 108 level either, it's getting confusing.

Maybe it's because Japanese government decided a new quarantine for Tokyo last Friday and the move happened after that. They said this quarantine will last for like 15 days if i don't remember wrong. So yes maybe that's why JPY is weakening.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #83,857
  • Apr 28, 2021 1:43pm Apr 28, 2021 1:43pm
Time to go get a martini and watch futures tank to 90, rates on 10 year go to 1.5, and usd/jpy tank.

Btw catching a falling knife and yelling BTC, UJ, or whatever it is' "TO THE MOON!!!". Is not!!!! Is not!! A responsible, or reliable trading strategy.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #83,858
  • Apr 28, 2021 3:01pm Apr 28, 2021 3:01pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} It didn't have much to do with the 108 level. Look at the US 10 year rate. {image}



Cmon Cole.. you gotta give it to him. I mean look at the chart. We all know UJ is heavily manipulated. Part of why I trade it. Today for instance as price jumped up right before the fed tanked it.. As I tell my son. If an Orangutan tells you to pull your pants up. Pull them up. It's good advice. I get that it makes no sense.. but it happened.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,859
  • Edited 3:37pm Apr 28, 2021 3:13pm | Edited 3:37pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Cmon Cole.. you gotta give it to him. I mean look at the chart. We all know UJ is heavily manipulated. Part of why I trade it. Today for instance as price jumped up right before the fed tanked it.. As I tell my son. If an Orangutan tells you to pull your pants up. Pull them up. It's good advice. I get that it makes no sense.. but it happened.
I like the saying a broken clocks right twice a day.

Futures didn't reflect the move in uj yesterday. Rates were way up.

Rates pushed uj up

Today all 3 are moving lower.

I do agree that the currency pairs are manipulated.

You can almost sense/tell when they're trying to clear out buy/sell orders, but that's a different topic.

There were actually some JPMORGAN traders who got busted for manipulating prices to create false support/resistance not to long ago.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #83,860
  • May 1, 2021 2:28pm May 1, 2021 2:28pm
On OPTIONs market JPY has ratio PUT/CALL for contract JUN 21 over 1 from 04/26/21, so MOOD is BEARISH. USDJPY should go UP next day
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