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  • #1,192,881
  • Edited 10:46am Apr 17, 2021 10:33am | Edited 10:46am
Market is moving from C to D (green) however we have a shallow B to C pullback and the current resistance is hitting what would be considered a 138 Fibonacci expansion.
The small B to C pullback gives a probability of 80% that the market will hit the 138 (WHERE IT IS AT NOW) and pullback to the B or even lower to the 38 Fibonacci retracement before moving to the D.
There is a 20% chance the market will just shoot straight to the D since it is only 70 pips on a daily chart which is reasonable with the EURUSD ADR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 86 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,192,882
  • Edited 10:53am Apr 17, 2021 10:37am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} COT is useless...when EU went from 800 to 1300, institutions were most short in years...and EU went up another 1000+ pips from there, without a retrace even.
No, it is useful for longer term.

You mean 1.0800 - 1.13xx... COT history shows clearly that institutions were adding long positions and there were more longs than short positions, just like now. So, longer term COT works. And you are wrong that institutions were mostly short, no they were not.

I'll attach COT history from April/21/2020 to July/07/2020 and you will see that institutions majority were long. And compare that to weekly or monthly charts, and you will see that it works.

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...mesf042120.htm

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...mesf042820.htm

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...mesf050520.htm

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...mesf051220.htm

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...mesf051920.htm

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...mesf052620.htm

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...mesf060220.htm

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...mesf070720.htm

Just scroll down to EUR and you will see.
  • #1,192,883
  • Apr 17, 2021 10:39am Apr 17, 2021 10:39am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} No, it is useful for longer term.
Sure cot for longterm not for midterm or intraday.
  • #1,192,884
  • Apr 17, 2021 10:41am Apr 17, 2021 10:41am
Quoting tonyb123
Market is moving from C to D (green) however we have a shallow B to C pullback and the current resistance is hitting what would be considered a 138 Fibonacci expansion. The small B to C pullback gives a probability of 80% that the market will hit the 138 (WHERE IT IS AT NOW) and pullback to the B or even lower to the 38 Fibonacci retracement before moving to the D. {image}
the only problem with this abcd pattern, and wave theory in general, is that they are not good even for a martingale expert.
not a crime, only experience tells.
  • #1,192,885
  • Apr 17, 2021 10:45am Apr 17, 2021 10:45am
EURUSD Options
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 25 KB
  • #1,192,886
  • Apr 17, 2021 10:46am Apr 17, 2021 10:46am
EURO FX COT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 68 KB
  • #1,192,887
  • Apr 17, 2021 10:49am Apr 17, 2021 10:49am
Eu Daily Fibonacci VIew
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 27 KB
  • #1,192,888
  • Apr 17, 2021 10:58am Apr 17, 2021 10:58am
We are going down next week before finally going up, many buyers are trapped , lots of liquidity below at the moment.
  • #1,192,889
  • Edited 11:11am Apr 17, 2021 11:00am | Edited 11:11am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} the only problem with this abcd pattern, and wave theory in general, is that they are not good even for a martingale expert. not a crime, only experience tells.
UMM... Martingale? I don't use experts and martingale.
The levels I use, come from years of using the standard Fibonacci retracement and expansion and the sheer frustration with them.
I created this tool or rather had the tool redone for my use, with my levels, because I know that the market is not random or chaotic.
Every swing no matter the size or whatever TF is precise. My levels capture the preciseness of the market, with or without the colored levels.
You are correct that wave theory has its flaws, but mine does not.
Did you look at the levels and follow them? Does that look like a problem?
The only problem is you didn't actually look at the levels and how the market reacts at them as presented.
You got caught up in your preconceived experience with ABCD but is not based on these levels.
Which makes your conclusion, completely inaccurate.
Not being harsh but too many traders make judgements based on a cursory glance at a picture without investigation.
And they will always miss out because of it.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,192,890
  • Apr 17, 2021 11:08am Apr 17, 2021 11:08am
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} UMM... Martingale? I don't use experts and martingale. The levels I use, come from years of using the standard Fibonacci retracement and expansion and the sheer frustration with them. I created this tool or rather had the tool redone for my use, with my levels, because I know that the market is not random or chaotic. Every swing no matter the size or whatever TF is precise. My levels capture the preciseness of the market, with or without the colored levels. You are correct that wave theory has its flaws, but mine does not.
i see the given level d, , hmm.
if it doesn’t slip any further, it can be good.
but I doubt he can no slide any further.
  • #1,192,891
  • Apr 17, 2021 11:12am Apr 17, 2021 11:12am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} No, it is useful for longer term. You mean 1.0800 - 1.13xx... COT history shows clearly that institutions were adding long positions and there were more longs than short positions, just like now. So, longer term COT works. And you are wrong that institutions were mostly short, no they were not. I'll attach COT history from April/21/2020 to July/07/2020 and you will see that institutions majority were long. And compare that to weekly or monthly charts, and you will see that it works. https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...mesf042120.htm...
I attached COT(dealers) from july last year...EU broke above 1.13 and was hovering around 1.14...dealers were short like not in a long time...more short than they were at 1.25...and yet...EU kept going up like is no tomorrow. So I am very sceptical about these reports...who knows how much of it is even real, when we know how many numbers and reports are being faked in the financial world.
Attached Image
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,192,892
  • Apr 17, 2021 11:16am Apr 17, 2021 11:16am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} i see the given level d, , hmm. if it doesn’t slip any further, it can be good. but I doubt he can no slide any further.
That's what I said, the market is at what Fibonacci with standard levels calls a 138 which has a 80% chance of reversing and a 20% chance of going straight to the D.
Even with my levels I can still see what all the other Fibonacci and wave chartists see, but I have an edge. Actually I have 3 more but I will never share that knowledge here publicly.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,192,893
  • Apr 17, 2021 11:19am Apr 17, 2021 11:19am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I attached COT(dealers) from july last year...EU broke above 1.13 and was hovering around 1.14...dealers were short like not in a long time...more short than they were at 1.25...and yet...EU kept going up like is no tomorrow. So I am very sceptical about these reports...who knows how much of it is even real, when we know how many numbers and reports are being faked in the financial world. {image}
It is as real as it gets. I attached some of the history, you can check it out on your previous post. Pay attention to non-commercials, not the dealers.
  • #1,192,894
  • Apr 17, 2021 11:23am Apr 17, 2021 11:23am
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} That's what I said, the market is at what Fibonacci with standard levels calls a 138 which has a 80% chance of reversing and a 20% chance of going straight to the D. Even with my levels I can still see what all the other Fibonacci and wave chartists see, but I have an edge. Actually I have 3 more but I will never share that knowledge here publicly.
yes i understand
usually the abcd and wave theories have the trouble that the expected level can slide further. and this is a very big problem.
so stallion I haven't used it in a very long time.
but if it works for you that's good.
  • #1,192,895
  • Edited 11:40am Apr 17, 2021 11:30am | Edited 11:40am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} yes i understand usually the abcd and wave theories have the trouble that the expected level can slide further. and this is a very big problem. so stallion I haven't used it in a very long time. but if it works for you that's good.
That is the reason I changed the levels.
The "experts" that teach this stuff and charge thousands of dollars for it would say stuff like we are in the 3rd wave in the 2nd blah blah blah.. and people pay them for that nonsense.
Or my other fav is the market is purely random, lol. More nonsense.
I can use my levels on any instrument no matter the market, stocks, options, futures, indexes, forex and crypto. And timeframe, they are all the same.

The slide as you described it, is the shakeout and fake out zone it is not random at all and can be traded easily, as long as, you know that the MM have hit their TP.
If It is not the TP level, it can still be traded, but you need to be in capital protection mode.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,192,896
  • Apr 17, 2021 11:34am Apr 17, 2021 11:34am
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} That is the reason I changed the levels. The "experts" that teach this stuff and charge thousands of dollars for it would say stuff like we are in the 3rd wave in the 2nd blah blah blah.. and people pay them for that nonsense. Or my other fav is the market is purely random, lol. More nonsense. I can use my levels on any instrument no matter the market, stocks, options, futures, indexes, forex and crypto. And timeframe, they are all the same.
yes i agree, the market is not random.
it just seems so.
  • #1,192,897
  • Apr 17, 2021 11:35am Apr 17, 2021 11:35am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} It is as real as it gets. I attached some of the history, you can check it out on your previous post. Pay attention to non-commercials, not the dealers.
Aren't non-commercials mostly retailers? Dealers are banks for the most part.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #1,192,898
  • Apr 17, 2021 12:17pm Apr 17, 2021 12:17pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Aren't non-commercials mostly retailers? Dealers are banks for the most part.
Non-commercials are hedge funds and large speculators.
  • #1,192,899
  • Apr 18, 2021 1:02am Apr 18, 2021 1:02am
Quoting Techanalyst
COT reports are in. Institutions are showing that are still in more long positions. So EURUSD remains long. They tricked traders into entering sell positions, I was in sell but closed my sell positions, made a mistake. EURUSD sentiment shows that majority retail are long so we usually should do the opposite of that. Weekly chart shows that supply zone is broken. That indicates it will go higher. Trade safe. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Goo Day.

I saw your valuable post, I attach overall sellers > buyers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: temp.png Size: 37 KB
  • #1,192,900
  • Apr 18, 2021 1:32am Apr 18, 2021 1:32am
EURUSD maybe breaks through 1.2 to 1.21.
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