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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #5,441
  • Edited Apr 16, 2021 2:19pm Apr 15, 2021 7:04pm | Edited Apr 16, 2021 2:19pm
XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Time Frame >> 4H

Expanded Flat >> Target C >> Fail!
Cypher Harmonic Pattern

Blue Line >> Monthly Pivot
Red Line >> Weekly Pivot
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  • #5,442
  • Apr 16, 2021 3:42am Apr 16, 2021 3:42am
Parisboy/Murrey Combination (well at least my view, for what its worth)
4 Day view set in 5mins
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  • #5,443
  • Apr 16, 2021 5:06am Apr 16, 2021 5:06am
Quoting Swede
{quote} OK....I get it now....and I didn't think you were criticizing at all...I just didn't grasp the wording even though I have seen your posts regarding same somewhere in the past postings.....Im just a bit thick at times lol
Swede

As I have already written here on the thread there is several ways to generate decent Envelopes parameters. We will all agree that we define "decent parameters" as Price (Amplitude) and Time parameters allowing us to generate a "reasonable" (operative) number of contacts (or close of) between Price Action and the Envelopes.

This we use for:

- Analysis : estimating the duration and the Amplitude of the Swings, status of the 3 Trends observed in the Triad System., variation of the Directional Changes

- Trading : determination of propective Target Zones, and Potential Support and Resistance Lines

In short your ADR methodology is as good as mine in this topic. This means that there is a close relationship between both our methodologies.
  • #5,444
  • Edited Apr 17, 2021 5:47am Apr 16, 2021 5:57am | Edited Apr 17, 2021 5:47am
Quoting acetrader
{quote} Parisboy, I do value your views, comments & opinions in all matters of trading especially when it comes to Hurst & his methods. I agree with you now that you are reading the Delta Phenomenon & from your review of the book you see it as no more than marketing hype. It appears I have been drawn into the webb of Delta, but not in deep enough to invest the $ needed for the software. I am finally seeing the in what Delta really is...mostly market hype. The astrology aspect is what got my interested keyed up about Delta as I knew long ago...
Ace more I analyze the "Delta Phenomenon " book more I am amazed by the level of plagiarism of Hurst's book and course and of bullshitting towards the honest naive customer. IMHO It is definitely a commercial scam

As Welles Wilder is really a Technical Analyst who invented some well-known indicators , it does not mean that everything that Wilders write has to be discarded.

IS THERE A STRONG COMMONALITY BETWEEN Welles Wilder's " DELTA PHENOMENON" and Jim Hurst's Cyclic Principles ?

In short "Delta " is basically a general cyclical analysis. Hurst model being itself a specific model (Hurst never alluded about this fact I will elaborate later on this subject)

Wilders camouflaged that Delta is structurally a cyclical analysis by using a vague and primitive influence / confluence of Moon and Sun on the Terrian Stock Market . This is basic " Financial Astrology " tools (whatever you think about it).

Notice that Wilders is too lazy to talk about the planets having a longer Period ( Venus , Jupiter, Saturn ) which are also basic financial astrology tool.

All of Wilders Delta methodology components are a strict decalcomany of Hurst main concepts, principles and tools

Logically as Delta methodology is basically a Phasing Analysis - what are the relative positions of the various cycles at work within Price Action - Wilders transmutes for the Dummies the Principle of Synchronicity - all cycles make their lows at the same time (within the same time period) . Then Wilders transmutes what Hurst calls " a Nest of Lows" into a "Line Up of Delta Turning Points"

The idea is, that when any DELTA turning points line up on or near the same date, it portends a big move.

How to transmute a "Nest of Lows" and the process to build it into a " Line Up of Delta Turning Points" : you just change the label. You do not use the word Cycle Low, you use" Delta Dates"

Now the Long Term Delta (LTD) date will occur in conjunction with one of 2 Medium term Delta (MTD) dates. and each MTD high date will occur in conjunction with one of 2 Intermediate Term Delta (ITD) high dates. So, you see how, by knowing the dates for each timeframe for a particular market, the timing can be dramatically improved over just knowing the longer term timeframe .The easy way to keep up with this is to put the date for each timeframe that is in view (relative to how far into the future your chart is dated) on your chart in different colors. Put the high points at the top of your chart and the low points at the bottom of your chart and it will be obvious when a line-up of DELTA turning points occurs.

Notice that the words Turning Points, Highs, Lows, Pivots have exactly the same meaning and consequences : Trend changes direction

Notice that what Hurst calls " Synchronicity " in his book Profit Magic (1970) was defined by Eward Dewey 20 years before as "Synchrony"

Another plagiarism by Wilders is the concept of "commonality" .

Hurst wrote " Summed cyclicalityis a common factor among all stocks. Cyclic commonality expresses as follows :

Existence in all issues
Similar duration
Similar relative magnitude
Time synchronization

I quote Wilders :

FAMILY GROUPS

One of the most interesting things I learned about the DELTA Phenomenon is that commodities or stocks within the same family group have the same DELTA solution!

to be continued soon
  • #5,445
  • Apr 16, 2021 6:21am Apr 16, 2021 6:21am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Ace more I analyze the "Delta Phenomenon " book more I am amazed by the level of plagiarism of Hurst's book and course and of bullshitting towards the honest naive customer. IMHO It is definitily a commercial scam As Welles Wilder is really a Techical Analyst who invented some well-known indicators , it does not mean that everything that Wilders write has to be discarded. In short "Delta " is basically a general cyclical analysis. Hurst model being itself a specific model (Hurst never alluded about this fact I will elaborate later on this...
Parisboy,

It appears you are correct & that is a shame as on the surface there seems to be some merit in Delta. Within the book are you seeing any merits, or usefull parts? As the chart I have with my version seems fairly accurate with respect to what the number of the next turn should be. I consider time spent on trying to learn something as time NOT wasted, but this just might be an exception. A very slick book well put together & marketed to the masses seeking quick $'s is what I'm staring to see. Please keep me updated on any further views from your continued reading if your still reading. Thank you.
  • #5,446
  • Apr 16, 2021 6:28am Apr 16, 2021 6:28am
Quoting acetrader
{quote} Parisboy, It appears you are correct & that is a shame as on the surface there seems to be some merit in Delta. Within the book are you seeing any merits, or usefull parts? As the chart I have with my version seems fairly accurate with respect to what the number of the next turn should be. I consider time spent on trying to learn something as time NOT wasted, but this just might be an exception. A very slick book well put together & marketed to the masses seeking quick $'s is what I'm staring to see. Please keep me updated on any further...
Ace

I have to go go. I will answer you this evening
  • #5,447
  • Apr 16, 2021 6:35am Apr 16, 2021 6:35am
Quoting OAPDave
Parisboy/Murrey Combination (well at least my view, for what its worth) 4 Day view set in 5mins {image} {image} {image}
its a beautiful thing

an example of the obvious thought and truth that is within this very coprehensive method that has been made and shared i find it both lovely and curious that it corelates with said chart below ( which does if i were to so desire to be lazy and cut my drawing/ clutter )

very fortunate and blessed to have people like you men with magic hats ripe with simplified tricks

bit of black just for dave
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  • #5,448
  • Apr 16, 2021 6:43am Apr 16, 2021 6:43am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Ace more I analyze the "Delta Phenomenon " book more I am amazed by the level of plagiarism of Hurst's book and course and of bullshitting towards the honest naive customer. IMHO It is definitily a commercial scam As Welles Wilder is really a Techical Analyst who invented some well-known indicators , it does not mean that everything that Wilders write has to be discarded. In short "Delta " is basically a general cyclical analysis. Hurst model being itself a specific model (Hurst never alluded about this fact I will elaborate later on this...
the most intresting thing i learnt is the

reference to manifestation ( imagening a burn ? ) and his book on manifestation for 9 pound however natural law does back fire for people if tricked or deemed judged as insincere ( look at all the people who suceeded with the "secret" and it horrifyingly backfired on .....)

it is amazing how people rip other people off though like ideas and rename them and become ultimate jeb sad really love watching you converstations wishing all a lovely and profitable day
  • #5,449
  • Edited 7:34am Apr 16, 2021 7:01am | Edited 7:34am
maybe a short trap .... on the cards

gbp usd m15

bit higher than i would of liked 2nd chart just taking on risk reward basis overall im long

for short moved my stop hear
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  • #5,450
  • Apr 16, 2021 7:17am Apr 16, 2021 7:17am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Ace I have to go go. I will answer you this evening
Parisboy,
I understand. There is no rush for me. Thank you.
  • #5,451
  • Apr 16, 2021 7:19am Apr 16, 2021 7:19am
Quoting RoninTheory
{quote} the most intresting thing i learnt is the reference to manifestation ( imagening a burn ? ) and his book on manifestation for 9 pound however natural law does back fire for people if tricked or deemed judged as insincere ( look at all the people who suceeded with the "secret" and it horrifyingly backfired on .....) it is amazing how people rip other people off though like ideas and rename them and become ultimate jeb sad really love watching you converstations wishing all a lovely and profitable day
RT, So very true. Best of trades to you.
  • #5,452
  • Apr 16, 2021 8:10am Apr 16, 2021 8:10am
Quoting Swede
Good spot to get short imho...... {image} {image}
thats my thoughts it is friday though we will see .. thankyou for your insight sweed gave me more confidence
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  • #5,453
  • Apr 16, 2021 8:15am Apr 16, 2021 8:15am
Euro very top heavy....considering short here...
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  • #5,454
  • Apr 16, 2021 8:28am Apr 16, 2021 8:28am
if short side cant take i think the shorts have no balls and would expect a stop out - level 1.37901

so far we have only just took the recent 5 min 1by we are above h4 and m15 1by1

from hour 4 perspective we have rallied out the first box so .... im glad i moved my stop and took partial for the sell

key
- small black box = 5min
-white box = m15
large black = h4

and thats a m15 gbpusd chart
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  • #5,455
  • Apr 16, 2021 9:17am Apr 16, 2021 9:17am
Very indecisive market.....chop fest atm
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  • #5,456
  • Apr 16, 2021 9:51am Apr 16, 2021 9:51am
just experimenting with murry maths my chart and that of swede yesterdays GU1 HR almost the same but differ in length/duration,dont know why but this is just experimenting on murrys math.
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  • #5,457
  • Apr 16, 2021 10:04am Apr 16, 2021 10:04am
Quoting RoninTheory
if short side cant take i think the shorts have no balls and would expect a stop out - level 1.37901 so far we have only just took the recent 5 min 1by we are above h4 and m15 1by1 from hour 4 perspective we have rallied out the first box so .... im glad i moved my stop and took partial for the sell key - small black box = 5min -white box = m15 large black = h4 and thats a m15 gbpusd chart {image}
m15 time cycles are confluenced for buy presure

SO LONG AS The 1by 1 Angles stay in place


gbp usd
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  • #5,458
  • Apr 16, 2021 10:38am Apr 16, 2021 10:38am
Quoting RoninTheory
{quote} m15 time cycles are confluenced for buy presure SO LONG AS The 1by 1 Angles stay in place gbp usd {image} {image}
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  • #5,459
  • Edited 11:31am Apr 16, 2021 11:12am | Edited 11:31am
At times, you just have to see it to believe it
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  • #5,460
  • Apr 16, 2021 11:35am Apr 16, 2021 11:35am
Quoting Swede
{quote} Hi Makenas....if you go to post 5325 it walks you through the steps to square the chart...time and price.....you have to reconfigure your fib tool to divide swing by 8...
Hello, sure i have that engraved in me and thanks for your openess just wanted to get what mm does . Blessed weekend
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