Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 262 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #5,221
  • Apr 8, 2021 11:36am Apr 8, 2021 11:36am
Just a waiting game now....waiting for a reversal candle to confirm entry....
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  • #5,222
  • Apr 8, 2021 11:56am Apr 8, 2021 11:56am
anybody trading the mighty Bitcoin...?
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  • #5,223
  • Edited 12:38pm Apr 8, 2021 12:28pm | Edited 12:38pm
Quoting Swede
GBP heading for 1.3700 but from there??? {image} {image}

It dropped where shouldn't as per my analysis. I think it will hit 1.38 before breaking 1.37. After 1.37 we should see 1.36400
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  • #5,224
  • Apr 8, 2021 4:36pm Apr 8, 2021 4:36pm
Uncanny how plotting the Tillman style of analyses (using fib channel) can spot precision entries...here is a great example..just set your channel from A to B....then set the bottom C to D....add in some confluence like BRN (000) ...............
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  • #5,225
  • Apr 8, 2021 5:33pm Apr 8, 2021 5:33pm
Attached is an updated 60min eur chart. Shows how PA is balancing around the upper BB and also the upper fixed channel line.
From the 2 day chart down to the 60min...all the cycles want down.
The weekly chart wants up.
Maybe we can get a 1-2 day move down...from here
The pattern on the 60 min might be seen as a 5pt broadening top..??

Not making predictions.... just sharing ( Its price action that I trade...with everything else helping out. )
Mkt does what it will...
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  • #5,226
  • Apr 8, 2021 5:43pm Apr 8, 2021 5:43pm
720min getting close to the outer channel line.
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  • #5,227
  • Apr 8, 2021 6:05pm Apr 8, 2021 6:05pm
See image below of GU/H4. I've switched off channel 256 for the sake of clarity. I've drawn some trend lines that I'm thinking could be VTLs. I've "moved" some of them as price created new highs that would have meant the trend line would have cut through interim price had the trend line not been moved/adjusted. Any comments about the correctness (or not) of these trend lines would be very helpful. Thanks.

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  • #5,228
  • Apr 9, 2021 2:57am Apr 9, 2021 2:57am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} {image}
Just wish the would give me simple squared charts and no Sunday Bar then my charts would perhaps be that little more accurate
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  • #5,229
  • Apr 9, 2021 3:38am Apr 9, 2021 3:38am
Anybody spot any Confluence ?
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  • #5,230
  • Apr 9, 2021 4:19am Apr 9, 2021 4:19am
BITCOIN 1 mn

Tillman Forks
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  • #5,231
  • Apr 9, 2021 4:46am Apr 9, 2021 4:46am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Ace I am not at all "upset" by MM posting . meaning the " MurreyMath Method (M3). Basically Murrey Math is the division of a "significant" Price Range by 8 or the division by 8 of a predetermined Price Range , mostly, 0-1, 0-10, 0-100, 0-1000 etc I use it since 1998. A long time before I discovered Hurst. Dave is wrong I do not "hate" MM. I just considered T.H. Murrey as a kind of fraud. Murrey the man never posted publicly since years some forecasts or trades in progress. Murrey the man only brags about how great a genius he is. Some guys...
Have to agree with you definitely. I found out about Murrey very early, as I was living in Nashville at that time. I ordered his book. It came as a set of notes and hand drawn charts in a binder. He had not yet developed the buggy software yet. What got me finally was that he switched the harvest moon start of the squares to his birthday. I felt lucky that I did not lose too much money on that one.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #5,232
  • Apr 9, 2021 4:55am Apr 9, 2021 4:55am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Have to agree with you definitely. I found out about Murrey very early, as I was living in Nashville at that time. I ordered his book. It came as a set of notes and hand drawn charts in a binder. He had not yet developed the buggy software yet. What got me finally was that he switched the harvest moon start of the squares to his birthday. I felt lucky that I did not lose too much money on that one.
Yes
Your one lucky guy then !
  • #5,233
  • Apr 9, 2021 5:06am Apr 9, 2021 5:06am
GBPUSD 30 mn

Closed Short position on Reversal on the Lower Boundary of the Envelope 256 Time Unit
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  • #5,234
  • Apr 9, 2021 5:11am Apr 9, 2021 5:11am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Have to agree with you definitely. I found out about Murrey very early, as I was living in Nashville at that time. I ordered his book. It came as a set of notes and hand drawn charts in a binder. He had not yet developed the buggy software yet. What got me finally was that he switched the harvest moon start of the squares to his birthday. I felt lucky that I did not lose too much money on that one.
Hi jmn5611

for your information an old message from a former Murrey discussion group


If you are concerned about price levels they are unaffected by the start date. As for the time lines, you might be interested in the following which are portions of two messages from Bonnie Hill (her website is http://home.flash.net/~blhill/pages/murrey.html).

Bill

I need to give a little history of "Murrey Math".

"Murrey Math" is based on a course written by W D Gann. When Murrey put his mother into a rest home, he found the course when he cleaned out her house. He used this material as the basis for "Murrey Math".

In the early days, Murrey gave Gann credit for the material. As the years passed, Murrey has "forgotten" where the ideas came from :-) There are several ideas in the course which Murrey did NOT understand correctly. That is why some of the techniques seem great and some seem a little "strange".

The starting point for the 4th quarter is actually the midpoint between the Earth's perihelion and aphelion. This date is approximately October 2nd.
The date can be shifted due to trading days or lunar aspects (Full/New Moons, etc) which occur close to this date.

Murrey's "birthday, etc" is pure nonsense. If you have a copy of this particular Gann course you know EXACTLY where "Murrey Math" came from. I have "Murrey Math" charts which I drew over 10 years before I ever saw the "Murrey Math" manual :-)

Best wishes,

Bonnie Lee Hill

Dave,

you have to note that Bonnie Hill :

- does NOT indicate which "particular" Gann Course it is, where to find or buy it
- does NOT explain WHY the "starting point" should be at the beginning of October
- does not explain what are the "several ideas in the course which Murrey did NOT understand correctly
  • #5,235
  • Apr 9, 2021 5:17am Apr 9, 2021 5:17am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Have to agree with you definitely. I found out about Murrey very early, as I was living in Nashville at that time. I ordered his book. It came as a set of notes and hand drawn charts in a binder. He had not yet developed the buggy software yet. What got me finally was that he switched the harvest moon start of the squares to his birthday. I felt lucky that I did not lose too much money on that one.

another post of my archives from a guy who obviously gave at that time a lot of thoughts on the subject "Start of the New Cycle"


I think the start date is important. FOM is just giving out some flack since nobody is recognizing the true elements of the discussion. Of course, if the start date is wrong, then it won't be very important, obviously. But, get it right and the results are quite impressive, enough so that it is worth the effort to set it
properly.

First, to counteract some of the FOM sarcasm recently: (FOM) was the abbreviation of a poster named Friend of Murrey, very aggressive towards the others and always bragging on how Murrey was a genius. Most guys suspected it was Murrey himself)

I. The Start Date DOES RESET every year in October.

II. The Start DATE IS IMPORTANT.

Check how many significant turns occur within +/-4 trading days of the start of any of the 64 bar frames.

III. It is not related to the first frost or Murrey's birthday

Although both may be close to the date, this is just fluff to conceal the true origin of the date.

I have been testing a proposed start date algorithm for a little while, and I think that it would explain Murrey's start dates for the most part. It may not be perfect, but certainly seems close. It also seems to agree with most of Murrey's nuggets of wisdom along the way.

Murrey Points to Keep in Mind:

1. It is related to the harvest moon somehow.

2. It is related to multiples of 4 trading days.

3. It should be in the first week of October each year.

4. Once set, the count remains fixed until the next October.

Note, Point #4 was the fooler because some earlier versions of Murrey's EOD program had some bugs related to the date which caused it to slide up or back 1 or 2 days at times, which clouded this issue, even though Murrey would state that the count did not adjust mid-year. But, close examination of Murrey's Trader's World articles shows that this date should not be changed once set until the next October.

Proposed Start Date Algorithm:

1. Take the first full moon which is on or after Sep 21 as the HARVEST MOON and denote that date as the anchor for the count.

2. If the full moon occurs earlier than 12:45 ET, then back up 1 calendar day and call that the anchor.

Note, that +8 trading days from this anchor date must be October 1st or later. If the September full moon is not within +8 trading days, you must switch to the October full moon as the anchor.

3. In cases of weekend anchor dates, ALWAYS round BACK not FORWARDS.

The trading frame dates tend to creep larger over the year, since there are only 252-253 trading days a year, but 256 trading dates in 4 64-bar frames. So, we would always want to round back, not forwards, since the tendency would be to move farther ahead of the actual year, not behind it.

3. If the anchor date is in September, then count either +4 trading days or +8 trading days until reaching a date in October. This date then becomes the year's start date.

4. If the anchor date is in October, then count either 0 trading days, -4 trading days, or -8 trading days until reaching a date which is October 7 or earlier.

Examples:

1. 2002-2003 Start Date:

Full Moon = Sept. 21 09:59 ET. Because it is before 12:45 ET, back up 1 calendar day. Anchor Date = Sept. 20, 2002. Add 8 trading days = Oct. 2, 2002 ( Murrey Math Start Date ).

2. 2001-2002 Start Date:

Full Moon = Oct. 2 09:49 ET. Because it is before 12:45 ET, back up 1 calendar day. Anchor Date = Oct. 1, 2001. ( Murrey Math Start Date ).

3. 2000-2001 Start Date:

Full Moon = Oct. 13 04:53 ET. Because it is before 12:45 ET, back up 1 calendar day. Anchor Date = Oct. 12, 2000.

Subtract 4 trading days = Oct. 6, 2000.

** Note, Murrey's start date = Oct. 9, 2000 which is only different by 1 trading day and results from the rounding rule. Backtesting shows that Oct. 6, 2000 shows somewhat better turns, however, so I've stuck with the rounding rules as shown.

4. 1999-2000 Start Date:

Full Moon = Sept. 25, 1999 06:51 ET. Because it is before 12:45 ET, back up 1 calendar day. Anchor Date = Sept. 24, 1999.
Add 8 trading days = Oct. 6, 1999 ( Murrey Math Start Date. )

5. 1998-1999 Start Date:

Full Moon = Oct. 5, 1998 16:12 ET. No rounding needed. Anchor Date = Oct. 5, 1998 ( Murrey Math Start Date. )

6. 1997-1998 Start Date:

Full Moon = Oct. 15, 1997 23:46 ET. No rounding needed. Anchor Date = Oct. 15, 1997 ( Murrey Math Start Date. ) Subtract 8 trading days = Oct. 3, 1997 ( Murrey Math Start Date. )

7. 1996-1997 Start Date:

Full Moon = Sept. 26, 1996 22:51 ET. No rounding needed. Anchor Date = Sept. 26, 1996 Add 4 trading days = Oct. 2, 1996 ( Murrey Math Start Date. )

8. 1995-1996 Start Date:

Full Moon = Oct. 8, 1995 11:52 ET. Anchor Date = Oct. 7, 1995 ( Saturday ). Back to trading day = Oct. 6, 1995 ( Murrey Math Start Date. )

9. 1994-1995 Start Date:

Full Moon = Oct. 19, 1994 08:18 ET. Anchor Date = Oct. 18, 1994 Subtract 8 trading days = Oct. 6, 1994

** Note, Murrey Math Start Date = Oct. 7, 1994 (rounding difference)

10. 1993-1994 Start Date:

Full Moon = Sept. 30, 1993 14:54 ET. Anchor Date = Sept. 30, 1993 Add 4 trading days = Oct. 6, 1993

11. 1992-1993 Start Date:

Full Moon = Oct. 11, 1992 14:03 ET. Anchor Date = Oct. 9, 1992 ( nearest trading day ). Subtract 4 trading days = Oct. 5, 1992

12. 1991-1992 Start Date:

Full Moon = Sept. 23, 1991 18:40 ET. Anchor Date = Sept. 23, 1991 Add 8 trading days = Oct. 3, 1991

13. 1990-1991 Start Date:

Full Moon = Oct. 4, 1990 08:02 ET. Anchor Date = Oct. 3, 1990 Start Date = Oct. 3, 1990

14. 1989-1990 Start Date:

Full Moon = Oct. 14, 1989 16:32 ET. Anchor Date = Oct. 13, 1989 Subtract 8 trading days = Oct. 3, 1989

15. 1988-1989 Start Date:

Full Moon = Sept. 25, 1988 15:07 ET. Anchor Date = Sept. 23, 1988 Add 8 trading days = Oct. 5, 1988

16. 1987-1988 Start Date:

Full Moon = Oct. 7, 1987 00:12 ET. Anchor Date = Oct. 6, 1987 Start Date = Oct. 6, 1987

FUTURE START DATES:

1. 2003 Start Date

Full Moon = Oct. 10, 2003 03:27 ET. Anchor Date = Oct. 9, 2003 Subtract 4 trading days = Oct. 3, 2003.

2. 2004 Start Date

Full Moon = Sept. 28, 2004 09:09 ET. Anchor Date = Sept. 27, 2004 Add 4 trading days = Oct. 1, 2004

3. 2005 Start Date

Full Moon = Oct. 17, 2005 08:14 ET. Anchor Date = Oct. 14, 2005 Subtract 8 trading days = Oct. 4, 2005.

So, what do you think FOM? Pretty close, or all wet...

PS 32-bar 2/8 time date coming Monday, expect stall of up move for 1-2 days here. Good Trading, Mike
  • #5,236
  • Apr 9, 2021 5:19am Apr 9, 2021 5:19am
Quoting parisboy
GBPUSD 30 mn Closed Short position on Reversal on the Lower Boundary of the Envelope 256 Time Unit {image}
Out of here now
Thanks for everything
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  • #5,237
  • Edited 9:56am Apr 9, 2021 8:51am | Edited 9:56am
I have just realized what an idiot I am
Spent years trying to fathom out what Murrey was on about
Using software that gives me a extra bar every Sunday, on a server that as UK time and added winter and summer setting too, does not even take into account National or local holidays
Looking at Murrey who by all accounts is a Charlatan owing to lets say, borrowing selected Gann work and calling it his own
When Gann, by most researchers thoughts, was a very secretive guy that never published his true trading secrets and by most people reckoning died poor
Looks like I am fighting a losing battle from the off then
Does not help either being deaf dumb and blind
Oh well its only a game
ps
Guess I just got lucky
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  • #5,238
  • Apr 9, 2021 9:35am Apr 9, 2021 9:35am
Quoting OAPDave
I have just realized what an idiot I am Spent years trying to fathom out what Murrey was on about Using software that gives me a extra bar every Sunday, on a server that as UK time and added winter and summer setting too, does not even take into account National or local holidays Looking at Murrey who by all accounts is a Charlatan owing to lets say, borrowing selected Gann work and calling it his own When Gann, by most researchers thoughts, was a very secretive guy that never published his true trading secrets and by most people reckoning died...
perhaps gan died poor because he chose not to share

bit like gollem in lord of the rings "my precious"

i like your posts dave even the riddles hoe your chin is up with corvid
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  • #5,239
  • Apr 9, 2021 9:43am Apr 9, 2021 9:43am
To those who are using envelopes in the early stages there is certainly a learning curve, but combined with confluence like Big Round Numbers, Fib retracements, Weekly Pivots of preidentified Support/Res areas from larger timeframes, or MM levels, VTL lines....you will find it to be a very powerful entry chart...especially the 5 minute because of the nature of currency trading.

This week wrapped up with many very nice trades, but the one I am the proudest off is the Euro, not because of the huge pip move, but because 90% of retail traders were convinced Euro was going north....when the envelope chart said we are going south because price is exhausted......and it did just so for 55 pips net....not a home run, but no drawdown whatsoever. the envelopes were clear and concise.

GBP/USD short was taken on Tuesday and added too all the way down...no drawdown...just a steady downward crawl...for almost 200 pips....

Besides...how many trades does one need to fill the coffers....I would rather have just a couple per week that are manageable, rather than a dozen that made one sit at the screen all week sweating it out..lol
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  • #5,240
  • Apr 9, 2021 9:49am Apr 9, 2021 9:49am
didnt take this one...but it was identifies a couple days ago.... bottom chart Murry Math exit?
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