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Lets talk USDCAD

  • #181
  • Nov 7, 2006 11:11pm Nov 7, 2006 11:11pm
My entry on this pair is all technical. I don't see how the democrates win equal a bullish run for the dollar. Higher tax = stronger dollar?
  • #182
  • Nov 7, 2006 11:18pm Nov 7, 2006 11:18pm
This is a little more complicated than that. It has to do with US foreign policy, international perception, and market sentiment all rolled into one. Most of the players in this market are not American and do not see things the way we do. Also a lot of people on this forum are not American...

Anyway, it will actually take days for the US election impact to get figured out in the markets. I'm just trying to get a jump on it. NYSE is closed when the returns come in. So is London. Just wait. What goes on right now is happening on the Asian markets, chop chop, so sorry.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #183
  • Nov 7, 2006 11:23pm Nov 7, 2006 11:23pm
I'm out of this trade for the night. Taking my profit and run away with it. Good night!
  • #184
  • Nov 7, 2006 11:27pm Nov 7, 2006 11:27pm
stay in your usd/cad long. right now fundamentals are weak for cad, and the cad hasn't been this high in years, and probably won't stay here for much longer. it's just a matter of timing. the usd/cad is in an uptrend (cad weakening) so you need to wait for the retracements to get in. patience is a virtue. -p.s. i am an american!!
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #185
  • Nov 7, 2006 11:36pm Nov 7, 2006 11:36pm
I'm basing this totally on US election returns, and looking for short term gains. I used to live in Detroit, and used to deal with the USD/CAD rate on a physical basis regularly, like I'll give you this much USD out of my hand, so how many real Canadian dollars do I get back to put in my wallet? If you want to see scalping go to a Windsor, Canada money changing joint some time.

I will not hold this trade for a long time, just long enough to get some pips. Thanks for the advice, though...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #186
  • Nov 8, 2006 7:09am Nov 8, 2006 7:09am
Did you get stop out on the retracement last night? The trend up was getting weak so I cashed out. This pair is too choppy for me to how for too long... you should take your profit and trade again another day
  • #187
  • Nov 8, 2006 8:56pm Nov 8, 2006 8:56pm
I wish you would have read the first part that said "don't do this yourself"...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #188
  • Nov 10, 2006 5:30pm Nov 10, 2006 5:30pm
I love this pair...Currently I am long...Acually I have been long the USD vs the CAD for over 2 weeks now...My stop is at 1.1110 and targets are up at the moon, like 1.1400, 1.1700 and so on..This is one of the fewest position in the forex market that I took for a long term...

What I really like about this pair is that the USD can get hammered all over the board (Like what happened this week) while the USD/CAD holds tight or even rallies...This is for sure because of the tight relationship between the Canadian economy and the American one...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #189
  • Nov 12, 2006 3:17pm Nov 12, 2006 3:17pm
anybody like this for a buy on a breakout of 4hour chart?
  • #190
  • Nov 12, 2006 3:22pm Nov 12, 2006 3:22pm
a currrent hread discussing your question can be found at
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=9981
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #191
  • Nov 12, 2006 4:03pm Nov 12, 2006 4:03pm
Quoting nitman
My entry on this pair is all technical. I don't see how the democrates win equal a bullish run for the dollar. Higher tax = stronger dollar?
I just need to reply to this ...
higher deficit = weaken dolar = higher interest rates
lower deficit = stronger dolar = lower interest rates
its just money
  • #192
  • Feb 9, 2007 7:40am Feb 9, 2007 7:40am
Hi there

USDCAD is almostly near to its support area 1.1730, the long can take from there to onward its main target is till 1.1975 area.

If 1.1730 area break then the strongest buying should be at 1.1630 from there keep the long till 1.1975

Good luck
  • #193
  • Feb 9, 2007 8:00am Feb 9, 2007 8:00am
so sad. lose a lot on this pair. waiting for it to rise back like what u said
  • #194
  • Feb 9, 2007 8:15am Feb 9, 2007 8:15am
hmm, usd/cad is interesting. If you looked historically, it nearly as does what oil does as canada is one of Americas biggest oil suppliers. Oil made an all time high of $78 arouond the middle of last year, then oil started to fall, it bounced around $50. Look what happend to USD/CAD during this period. oil is now hovering around $60. Bare in mind that USD/CAD is usually slightly lagged with oil and the moves will be the inverse of the oil moves. i.e when oil moves up USD/CAD moves down. Is this a heads up for going short on usd/cad? Time will tell.
  • #195
  • Feb 9, 2007 8:20am Feb 9, 2007 8:20am
USD/CAD the minor support is 1.1730 area if its hold then can move back towards upper end and if its break then the best support to take long of this pair is at 1.1630-1.1645 area from there you can enjoy good number of pips the main resistance is still looking at 1.1975 area that will touch sooner

good luck to you




Quoting peterM
hmm, usd/cad is interesting. If you looked historically, it nearly as does what oil does as canada is one of Americas biggest oil suppliers. Oil made an all time high of $78 arouond the middle of last year, then oil started to fall, it bounced around $50. Look what happend to USD/CAD during this period. oil is now hovering around $60. Is this a heads up for going short on usd/cad? Time will tell.
  • #196
  • Feb 16, 2007 9:49am Feb 16, 2007 9:49am
I am flat this loonie pair. I exited yesterday. I was very fortunate to take the entire zone from the 1747 area to down through the 1644 area for a nice profit. I am watching this pair for now. The short setup is still tempting, but the "River" level I watch is at 1706 and this worries me a little at this time. Truth is I need to watch this one for a while as I am not comfortable with it for now.

I will try to update on it.

DRT

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-16-2007.PNG
  • #197
  • Feb 17, 2007 8:35am Feb 17, 2007 8:35am
Nice cover, I think it is run its course on the downside for now.

Just my 2 cents -I am long this pair from Wednesday, see chart below.

Dave
Attached Image
  • #198
  • Feb 17, 2007 9:14am Feb 17, 2007 9:14am
Reviewing some longer term thoughts, I am thinking we may have a little more downside yet. Who knows. I am thinking a move down to the 1562 area and likely the 1521 area. I would be a buyer here for a return to fair value or "River" somewhere around 1750.

Moving above 1650 and building value would likely cancel my downside thoughts.

This pair always requires my most extreme patience. Throw in some oil and you have a difficult mistress.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-17-2007.PNG
  • #199
  • Feb 18, 2007 12:13pm Feb 18, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Reviewing some longer term thoughts, I am thinking we may have a little more downside yet. Who knows. I am thinking a move down to the 1562 area and likely the 1521 area. I would be a buyer here for a return to fair value or "River" somewhere around 1750.

Moving above 1650 and building value would likely cancel my downside thoughts.

This pair always requires my most extreme patience. Throw in some oil and you have a difficult mistress.

http://home.comcast.net/%7Edownriver..._2-17-2007.PNG
am see ucad down nicely from 9/2/07 and again on 13/2/07 and last friday(16/2/07) show again sell signal...and close on bearish candle...

http://img250.imageshack.us/img250/5610/ucadbb6.png
  • #200
  • Feb 19, 2007 7:40am Feb 19, 2007 7:40am
Here are the daily levels for USDCAD.

Look closely at todays candle. Price is moving back up strongly through the Zone -1 level of 1644. It is tempting to get long here. I don't think it is a good idea...at least not yet. I may be wrong on this one, but I think setting shorts could yield good results. For newer traders, a confirmation would be helpful. I will post the 60M chart below.

If price returns to 1643 area and bounce up out of this area. Then longs to 1706. If price moves beow 1643 then shorts to 1582 and 1521.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-19-2007.PNG


Here is the 60M. Use the 1643 area to confirm your decisions.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-19-2007.PNG
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