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Real or Algo

  • #1,441
  • Mar 18, 2021 10:11pm Mar 18, 2021 10:11pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This brings us to the core question about trading. "Where does the edge sit on the chart?" If you can't answer this question in an objective quantified manner, I'm sure you know what it means. (The simple sensible and logical answer tend to cause offence.) Here's the simple answer to this question. Everytime you press the buy sell button and you can't say this moment, space and time sit the edge on the chart, you are essentially gambling blindly. The actual outcome is not important. Guessing(very close to 100%) is the most common method...
A lot of good discussion of late and ideas. I must say I agree with you 100% BW. Your sacred cows are spot on IMO.

I haven't posted on the forum in a long time but have to give credit where credit is due.
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,442
  • Mar 18, 2021 10:17pm Mar 18, 2021 10:17pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} A lot of good discussion of late and ideas. I must say I agree with you 100% BW. Your sacred cows are spot on IMO. I haven't posted on the forum in a long time but have to give credit where credit is due.
Hello mate, you finished that single handed row across the bath tub!
  • #1,443
  • Mar 19, 2021 12:13am Mar 19, 2021 12:13am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Why do I continue to make this statement, FA and TA is useless garbage?

... is whether they know it by gut feel or actual objective quantified TA ?

There's a huge difference to say I know EU fall from my 10000 hours of screentime experience, and I know because my objective quantified TA told me.

If it's the former, doesn't it mean TA is useless to these group of traders ?


Well I enjoy the brain challenges you bring BW

I guess I am in the former. I do zero quantitative assessment with maths. (Maybe some bar counting, for time & price, AND tweaking the parameters of an indi, looking at hi & low for Pip Range etc, but not 1+1 =2 maths or higher, if you know what I mean.).


Mine is really screen time experience.

And I could NOT get screen time experience by just doing live trading hours waiting till London opened etc and then gain the experience as the market moved.

For me it had to be offline, NO live trading (and on the weekends actually, with a Trade Simulator EA painting a new bar after bar from a randomly chosen month).


So, … if it’s the former, doesn’t it mean that TA is useless to my group of traders.


Again, maybe it’s the word. “Useless’ it what gets my brain itching, as “what” does useless really mean.

It cannot mean its conventional useage, because some folk do use TA and it works for them .


So drilling down, using TA to pick an exact trade entry point based on TA (let’s say indicator usage) then I agree NOT useful for me.

Too many illusions came out of that for me.


Though how I would envision TA being a YES-useful, for me, would be if it highlights that a market is LIKELY TO DO SOMETHING SOON.
(after ranging for example, but not limited to that example).

And I do mean, soon, but then maybe not so soon, maybe never happens, all of these, but TA for me is definately NOT a now = push the buy/sell.


TA can help me to identify an upcoming zone & time when something in the market might possibly be about to happen.

And “if” something does happen - then that was my edge, I believe anyway.


So I think I get what you are suggesting with TA, BW. Though it’s still a Yes/No, useful/useless, thing with me still (as I DON”T call what I do TA).


Maybe someone could throw a blanket over TA and define it for the discussion pls.

We might all be calling something TA but actually each be looking at it a little differently in reality.
  • #1,444
  • Mar 19, 2021 12:25am Mar 19, 2021 12:25am
Quoting TimeTells
So drilling down, using TA to pick an exact trade entry point based on TA (let’s say indicator usage) then I agree NOT useful for me. Too many illusions came out of that for me. Though how I would envision TA being a YES-useful, for me, would be if it highlights that a market is LIKELY TO DO SOMETHING SOON. (after ranging for example, but not limited to that example). And I do mean, soon, but then maybe not so soon, maybe never happens, all of these, but TA for me is definately NOT a now = push the buy/sell. TA can help me to identify...
The word useless means TA play no part in the process.

Everything about trading comes down to the moment when we press the buy sell button to execute a trade.

It must be the moment that the summation of everything we do it points to the edge right here and now.

I wrote earlier, almost 100% of the traders do not use TA to execute trades.

Almost 100% of the traders will point to price action.

What is price action then ?

If you put price action under a microscope you find it's when the trader summon enough courage and guts to press the button.
All other TA analysis prior to this moment became secondary. Price action took over to control our decision.

Does it really mean that the edge sit on that space, moment and time ?

This is the hard question every trader must ask themselves.
Know what you trade
  • #1,445
  • Mar 19, 2021 12:30am Mar 19, 2021 12:30am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote}

And I do mean, soon, but then maybe not so soon, maybe never happens, all of these,
but TA for me is definately NOT a now = push the buy/sell.
TA can help me to identify an upcoming zone & time when something in the market might possibly be about to happen.

Got it, BW, my understanding of what we call TA does NOT determine my now moment of whether buying or selling.
  • #1,446
  • Mar 19, 2021 12:35am Mar 19, 2021 12:35am
Quoting TimeTells
Got it, BW, my understanding of what we call TA does NOT determine my now moment of whether buying or selling.
This should be the same for almost every trader(100%). Except those who operate under a objectively quantified approach.

Price action play no part(or very small part) in his decision making process.
Know what you trade
  • #1,447
  • Mar 19, 2021 2:09am Mar 19, 2021 2:09am
Quoting BWilliam
Here I take the opportunity to point out how RickM use volume data to objectively quantify the market to guide his trading decision. Everytime he press the buy sell button he is essentially saying at this moment, space and time sit the edge on the chart. This is an example of a objective quantified approach. It's not the only method. However it must be a method that point to the edge in an objectively quantified manner. What's yours? Cheers BW
Order blocks, gaps, break in structure (some time with engulfing candles), upon retesting of the OB is the order, and if direction is right using correlation more entries (still in practise)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0E3CB252-E7BF-4C75-820B-F8B4E5E7F65E.png Size: 463 KB
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,448
  • Mar 19, 2021 2:16am Mar 19, 2021 2:16am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Order blocks, gaps, break in structure (some time with engulfing candles), upon retesting of the OB is the order, and if direction is right using correlation more entries (still in practise) {image}
Cant argue with that. Good trading
  • #1,449
  • Mar 19, 2021 2:22am Mar 19, 2021 2:22am
Quoting bilal1947
Order blocks, gaps, break in structure (some time with engulfing candles), upon retesting of the OB is the order, and if direction is right using correlation more entries (still in practise) {image}
If you check my post history I call you out as a good trader. Good job Bilal.
Know what you trade
  • #1,450
  • Edited 3:46am Mar 19, 2021 2:25am | Edited 3:46am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Order blocks, gaps, break in structure (some time with engulfing candles), upon retesting of the OB is the order, and if direction is right using correlation more entries (still in practise) {image}
i want to highlight here dont fall into $$$ i am on demo and always telling everyone i am developing this skill if i feel i am consistent over time, then only i go live else i will be happy to walk away. forex is not my primary source of income but hobby for now. people should take it like that if they are not consistent in demo dont waste hard earned money of your or family in this business.

you can still survive without forex and make money else where believe in yourself. God always has something for all of us.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,451
  • Mar 19, 2021 2:27am Mar 19, 2021 2:27am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} If you check my post history I call you out as a good trader. Good job Bilal.
you are a gem of a person not because you called me out but how you manage the anger in heating conversation most of the time. i wish to be that calm and cool as i grow.

stay blessed !!
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,452
  • Mar 19, 2021 2:38am Mar 19, 2021 2:38am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This is my opinion and not fact. Question - how is it possible that price stays confined.....? Answer - ALL trading operation in the billions category has authorisation to trade within "preset limits". There must be proper justification and authorisation within each organisation to act inside and beyond such "limits". There are different authourised "limits" within each level of the organisation. This is a standard risk management protocol to safeguard the resources and assets of the organisation.
Hi BW,

Thaks for your reply. I agree with you that everything is preplanned within each big player. The question is how ALL of these "organizations" have the same "preset limits" AND in the same time AND for the same time span/duration?

Cheers,
Bogdan
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #1,453
  • Mar 19, 2021 2:59am Mar 19, 2021 2:59am
Quoting bfx17
Hi BW, Thaks for your reply. I agree with you that everything is preplanned within each big player. The question is how ALL of these "organizations" have the same "preset limits" AND in the same time AND for the same time span/duration? Cheers, Bogdan
Hi bfx17, in my original explanation there's a missing gap that did not explain why this particular "preset limit".

It's common practice with the banks and financial institutions there's this on-going value calculation of the upper and lower limit value of the asset. Beyond this limit the banks are exposed to unacceptable risk exposure and they become victims of aggressive predator participants. This valuation model don't differ much applying some common math probably skewed a little depending on each banks risk appetite. This explains for the uniformity of this "preset limit". The market traded inside this 12 pips range because there were a lot of bears wanting to sell into the market on that day. At the same time the market traded close to the value limit floor. It took 7 hours of transaction churn to absorb the sell volume on that day.

This is how I explain why the ECAD chart painted the way it did looking like a straight line. Imv.

This is how and why algo levels or "preset limits" play a role in our market structure analysis.

This post touch on asset valuation which is directly related to "algo level".
Know what you trade
  • #1,454
  • Mar 19, 2021 4:46am Mar 19, 2021 4:46am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi bfx17, in my original explanation there's a missing gap that did not explain why this particular "preset limit". It's common practice with the banks and financial institutions there's this on-going value calculation of the upper and lower limit value of the asset. Beyond this limit the banks are exposed to unacceptable risk exposure and they become victims of aggressive predator participants. This valuation model don't differ much applying some common math probably skewed a little depending on each banks risk appetite. This explains for...
Hi BW,

I will reply quckly because I am the office.

So even if they have the same price valuation model and they have the same "preset limits", still they need to be coordinated. Oterwise, if all of them INDEPENDENTLY buy at the low and and sell at the top, they would enter in a deadly spiral.

The point is, again, that only under strict coordination that range is possible. In my opinion, of course.

Hope I made myself clear. If not, I will elaborate more later.

Cheers,
B
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #1,455
  • Mar 19, 2021 5:17am Mar 19, 2021 5:17am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This discussion made me realise I should not have written all those things that I wrote on this thread and George threads. After reading the response on here I realise my mistake today, that's 2 years too late. I should not meddle in things that is none of my business BW
BW,
you spoke much about TA and FA as garbage,
but you also said that from the many answers in this thread you understood that you should have not written these things in George's threads,
so i guess you saw that many people are, more than relying on FA and TA, rely on George's ideas, see the markets through his eyes, am i wrong?

If that's the case what about George's ideas, is that also gargabe?

I think for the posters here this is the real sacred cow (to tear down or no?).

I read you wrote about the limits of George's targets, but nothing else, if im not wrong.
  • #1,456
  • Edited 5:46am Mar 19, 2021 5:32am | Edited 5:46am
Quoting TimeTells
A real Supply & Demand Auction Market.. A one MM, a one coordinator (a one algo for want of a better word) could facilitate this gap. So should we consider that FX is a real S&D Auction Market all the time.
The Forex Market is not s simple as buying & selling bananas. Placing a value on one item, then either buying or selling at fair market value.

Shortages & Excesses can be created by individuals to "Freak Out " market participants to Buy & sell at the wrong price & the wrong time.

Most Trading Rooms will have a desk that will specialise in trading GBP or, USD or JPY etc. So they mark fair value by not just comparing the price with one pair, but continually cross-referencing with the value in others. By skewing price of low volume traded pairs I can create a value distortion in the pair I want to trade, and it doesn't have to be a single trade between 2 parties only there coud be many involved.
One example of Market manipulation. Often movements in other pairs can signal impending moves. You just have to have a wider viewpoint than just one chart.

Attached Image




Higher Timeframes View.
Yes you are correct, about having the bigger picture view, to see the bigger plan. You would see levels being approached that you would not see looking at a 1m or 5m chart.

Important also to watch related markets and prices of commodities. Relationship of AUD & NZD to Gold & JPY , CAD to the price of Oil, USD to the S&P & DJI, Neither do you want to be in a trade over the weekend or around Major New Events.

https://www.investopedia.com/article...currencies.asp

TA can be helpful as prices approaches extreme levels and other key important levels, as everyone and their dog will be watching.

Calling it Structure, Herd Mentality, Targets, Supply& Demand, Support & Resistance or Tops & Bottoms. doesn't veer from the reality that ths is still TA.

Once you start drawing a line, horizontal, diagonal, circles, fib ratios, Round Numbers, Pivots, POI, Exhaustion, Climax Engulfs, Pinbars etc. etc. it is all TA.

A plain Chart with Candles only, can be TA. You can have various flavours, Heiken Ashi, Renko, Equivolume, Range, So on & So on.

There are No sacred cows to tear down, they are only invisible limits you are putting on yourself.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,457
  • Mar 19, 2021 6:07am Mar 19, 2021 6:07am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote}
1. Calling it Structure, Herd Mentality, Targets, Supply& Demand, Support & Resistance or Tops & Bottoms. doesn't veer from the reality that ths is still TA.

2. Once you start drawing a line, horizontal, diagonal, circles, fib ratios, Round Numbers, Pivots, POI, Exhaustion, Climax Engulfs, Pinbars etc. etc.
it is all TA.

A plain Chart with Candles only, can be TA. You can have various flavours, Heiken Ashi, Renko, Equivolume,...
--------------


Quoting TimeTells
{quote}
So drilling down, using TA to pick an exact trade entry point based on TA (let’s say indicator usage) then I agree NOT useful for me.
Too many illusions came out of that for me.

Though how I would envision TA being a YES-useful, for me, would be if it highlights that a market is LIKELY TO DO SOMETHING SOON.

Maybe someone could throw a blanket over TA and define it for the discussion pls.
We might all be calling something TA but actually each be looking at it a little differently in reality.
--------------

Hi Shabs, your questions are valid, as always.

Your definition of TA is quite broad I note. In fact it seems to encompass eveything a trader might do.

So I think now that the definition of TA is a key requirement. Else the word is just narrative.


I don't see myself using traditional (?) TA when selecting my trade entry.

I would consider some form of TA useful IF .... it highlights that a market is LIKELY TO DO SOMETHING SOON.


I trade using my own micro version of george's targets (George had ONE pair and he re-drew each morning the Daily highs, the 4hr highs, and the 15m highs)


When George said that the market behaved as a fractal. I thought about it.

If the market is fractal, then why not down to the lowest possible fractal chart lol. And I can do my business in there, sometimes in the middle of the "washing machine" (which freaks some folks out), and do it there rather than always at the 'logical' place which might be at the extremes & exhaustions of price moves.
I can do this, scrapping away in my scalps, which is my preferred way of trading.

I wondered how is this possible over & over if the market we trade in behaved randomly.


Now, the fx market I see as highly organised and efficient, doing the same thing over & over (the why doesn't matter that much to me).
And that's how I can trade it, with my targets.

George will often be discussed I imagine because of the TMAs. Even tho he said himself he factored that in as 2% of his business.


Targets, the fractality of the timeframes, operating inside a well oiled & organised fx market business model, it all works for me in my own smallish way.

So I don't consider myself a TA trader. Others may.
When I'm assessing a possible trade time & price area, I never think "Now what does my TA tell me"


But, the whether fx is a "real supply & demand auction market" is a fair discussion imo.
  • #1,458
  • Mar 19, 2021 6:15am Mar 19, 2021 6:15am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} -------------- {quote} -------------- Hi Shabs, your questions are valid, as always. Your definition of TA is quite broad I note. In fact it seems to encompass eveything a trader might do. So I think now that the definition of TA is a key requirement. Else the word is just narrative. I don't see myself using traditional (?) TA when selecting my trade entry. I would consider some form of TA useful IF .... it highlights that a market is LIKELY TO DO SOMETHING SOON. I trade using my own micro version of george's targets (George had ONE pair...
Hi TimeTells, at the core of the trading process the question of what label we call our method is not important.

What matters is the methodology, whatever name we give it, must direct us to push the buy sell button at the moment, space and time when and where the edge sit. Everything else is moot.

I suggest that for most traders that final decision is based on price action.
Know what you trade
  • #1,459
  • Mar 19, 2021 6:31am Mar 19, 2021 6:31am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} -------------- {quote} -------------- Hi Shabs, your questions are valid, as always. Your definition of TA is quite broad I note. In fact it seems to encompass eveything a trader might do. So I think now that the definition of TA is a key requirement. Else the word is just narrative.
TA is very broad. You cannot help but use some aspect of it. You just simply use what makes sense to you.

We are all looking for a narrative, Why did this happen, when I thought it should have done that ?

FA is can be used by the trader to trade also, but my thinking is that all the information is on the charts already in the Price.
Affects price in drastic fashion (bombshell) or slowburn over many weeks.

The market is orderly, there are rules & regulators put in place to stabilise currrency valuations, reason why ADR & AWR is so closely moitored.
How musc percentage a currency pair moves in one day, one week or a month. There are checks & controls on movement.

Speculation is the art of skimming profit here & there in the discrepancies of price movement. Call it opportunities and you have to be a master to find them.
Some days it is easy & some days very difficult. We as retail can choose to trade or not, the Big Boys can't.

That is the edge we have to exploit.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,460
  • Mar 19, 2021 6:44am Mar 19, 2021 6:44am
Quoting loppo0101
BW, you spoke much about TA and FA as garbage, but you also said that from the many answers in this thread you understood that you should have not written these things in George's threads, so i guess you saw that many people are, more than relying on FA and TA, rely on George's ideas, see the markets through his eyes, am i wrong? If that's the case what about George's ideas, is that also gargabe? I think for the posters here this is the real sacred cow (to tear down or no?). I read you wrote about the limits of George's targets, but nothing...
Hi, by "useless garbage" I mean that it offers no advantage to determine alpha.

Banks and financial institutions cannot justify billion dollars commitment in directional speculation based on retail technical analysis(represented by the few thousand threads).
I wrote that in my earlier post.

As to George targets I reserve comment on specifics.
Know what you trade
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