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Real or Algo

  • #1,421
  • Mar 18, 2021 3:53pm Mar 18, 2021 3:53pm
Quoting bfx17
{quote} Great point Pete. I thought about it myself. This is happening now on bitcoin. Everyone buy and buy. Theysay it will reach 100k, even 200k. So who is selling? Cheers, B
Bitcoin has become more or less a security now, with inflation rates and governments printing cash as much as they spend it, everyone and their mums are turning to bitcoin to retain some sort of value. Bitcoin is on a buy frenzy and I doubt it'll ever stop, not with the world going more and more online and fiat currencies getting exposed.

To your question, those selling are regular retail bitcoin holders, bitcoin miners, bitcoin exchanges and recently hedge funds after seeing it skyrocket. The only difference is a large portion of the afore mentioned selling groups usually buy back more coins from those who literally bought from them but start panicking when the price drops. Those who know bitcoin know it's never going down. Those who doubt bitcoin watched it rise from $100, so you choose which group wins. Unless something catastrophic happens and I won't say it because I wouldn't wanna manifest something negative, bitcoin is never going past $25k ever again.
Read in between the price!!!
  • #1,422
  • Mar 18, 2021 4:07pm Mar 18, 2021 4:07pm
Quoting calebfx
{quote} Bitcoin has become more or less a security now, with inflation rates and governments printing cash as much as they spend it, everyone and their mums are turning to bitcoin to retain some sort of value. Bitcoin is on a buy frenzy and I doubt it'll ever stop, not with the world going more and more online and fiat currencies getting exposed. To your question, those selling are regular retail bitcoin holders, bitcoin miners, bitcoin exchanges and recently hedge funds after seeing it skyrocket. The only difference is a large portion of the afore...
Thank for your answer. I admit i dont know much about bitcoin, because i never understood its underlying value. I mentioned it only because it had this crazy increase in such a short period of time. I still see a massive correction in the upcoming period, but as I said i know very little about it and frankly i dont even care.

Cheers,
B
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #1,423
  • Mar 18, 2021 5:09pm Mar 18, 2021 5:09pm
Quoting TimeTells
A real Supply & Demand Auction Market. For example I grow bananas to sell and feed my family. To grow a banana costs me x amount of dollars. I have to pay staff for tending the bananas, watering, harvesting, transporting them to market. At market, I put a price on my bananas. I know what it costs me to get the bananas to market. So I add a mark-up to cover the cost and provide me an income and to start next years crop. Buyer A comes in, looks at my bananas, likes what they see and pays me my price. Two other scanarios. Buyers see my bananas but...
Just a little concerned regarding the bananas Pete. Are we talking standard nanas or EU nanas which of course have to be straight..to fit in a box. Small details I know but may affect the outcome..
  • #1,424
  • Mar 18, 2021 5:27pm Mar 18, 2021 5:27pm
Quoting bfx17
{quote} Thank for your answer. I admit i dont know much about bitcoin, because i never understood its underlying value. I mentioned it only because it had this crazy increase in such a short period of time. I still see a massive correction in the upcoming period, but as I said i know very little about it and frankly i dont even care. Cheers, B
You should, on both counts.
Read in between the price!!!
  • #1,425
  • Mar 18, 2021 6:00pm Mar 18, 2021 6:00pm
Quoting almo
Shabs, give him a chance to respond please. I feel like we are about to make some serious progress and potentially a final answer to "Real or Algo"
Serious progress can only be attained if you(everyone) are serious in this discussion. The choice is yours.

Keep the discussion civil with an open mind and be prepared to be challenged out of your comfort zone. Keep your insecurities in check. That's all that's required.

Are you(everyone) here to learn possibly something new that's beyond what you know or you feel you know everything already?
Know what you trade
  • #1,426
  • Mar 18, 2021 6:12pm Mar 18, 2021 6:12pm
Quoting Pumi
Please carry on with the good work just the way you are doing. One can choose to be a high school student or sit down and deal with his/her EGO. You are certainly changing lives of some who are willing to LISTEN. You are more like George as he said on post #1 of his main thread... "This thread could well be ,,,, one of the most ,,, CONTROVERSIAL threads on FF ,,,, Because it is AGAINST all known LOGICS and RULES that are taught out there by many IGNORANT and UN informed Educators ." ~ George_AUS So don't let those who are experienced to...
Thanks Pumi. I don't take offence with the personal attacks. I understand them because I was like them. So no problem. This is the result of indoctrination. The severity is seen by this personal attacks that has nothing to do with the discussion topic.

It's sad to see this forum does not want to ask the hard in the face questions. I feel sad for those few members who want to learn, make a serious change in their trading life to become better traders themselves.

These members deserve my attention, that's why I continue to post eventhough it's hard with the heckling, mocking and personal attacks. These negative activities just clutter the thread that make my posts become useless. I have serious intention to leave or just be a troll posting for fun and entertainment purpose only.

If you have any particular specific question(s) in mind you can ask here or pm me. I will try my best to help you get on the right path whichever way in a conducive environment. However, you should also understand there's a limit to my answer.
Know what you trade
  • #1,427
  • Mar 18, 2021 6:28pm Mar 18, 2021 6:28pm
Quoting bfx17
Thanks Pete, I expanded these questions to anyone who could provide a logical explanation. Because for me this is an obvious evidence that the big boys act in a coordinated manner. They were doing it like for ever, but they were using different method/tools as the technology evolved. I mentioned already the Bloomberg chat rooms. These days, I am sure they use a centralised tool (an algo) in which they pour/submit their orders. This is how they control the price and dont mess with each other. That's my view. Of course I am curious to see...
Hi bfx17 good question, here's my answer.

Look at the charts again on the day you asked that question, ie that straight line when market "stopped".

How many members here look at the H4, daily, weekly and monthly timeframe to "see" where price was on that day?

It was at the extreme recent low. The market traded to the extreme of extreme low then "stop somewhere", marked by that 7hours 12pips range before "decided" not to trade below this level. That's what has happened to explain what happened on that day and what happened thereafter. It was not an ordinary day.
Know what you trade
  • #1,428
  • Edited 7:03pm Mar 18, 2021 6:52pm | Edited 7:03pm
Quoting bfx17
So let me generalise the question: how is it possible that the price stays confined in a small range for hours and hours only "stinging" the upper and lower levels. Who is buying and who is selling in that range and at the boundries of that range? And how is it so precise? I know, there are more than 1 question, but i'd like to know your pov. Also, gfx's pov (maybe Andy will unignore him) Cheers, B
This is my opinion and not fact.

Question - how is it possible that price stays confined.....?

Answer - ALL trading operation in the billions category has authorisation to trade within "preset limits". There must be proper justification and authorisation within each organisation to act inside and beyond such "limits". There are different authourised "limits" within each level of the organisation. This is a standard risk management protocol to safeguard the resources and assets of the organisation.
Know what you trade
  • #1,429
  • Mar 18, 2021 7:57pm Mar 18, 2021 7:57pm
Look at kette, she has a way to beat the algo (real or cooked).
It will be very hard for the algo to catch up with her strategy.
  • #1,430
  • Mar 18, 2021 7:58pm Mar 18, 2021 7:58pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Serious progress can only be attained if you(everyone) are serious in this discussion. The choice is yours. Keep the discussion civil with an open mind and be prepared to be challenged out of your comfort zone. Keep your insecurities in check. That's all that's required. Are you(everyone) here to learn possibly something new that's beyond what you know or you feel you know everything already?
BWilliam - I'm ready to listen.

-Almo
  • #1,431
  • Mar 18, 2021 7:59pm Mar 18, 2021 7:59pm
Quoting TimeTells
And this was all that BW was also suggesting, I imagine, when he posed the above question about an S&D Auction Market, AFTER Andy started this thread. (And a bit unfair maybe, imho, to expect BW to just expose & give over his life’s work on his maths methodology on an open forum here, but just my opinion. I read it only as BW just asking that other traders consider the possibility and do the hard work to find it themselves - he said it CAN be found, for those who search).
Thanks a lot TT. I am not good with words. I know my explanation sucks. I'm more a numbers person since school days. You wrote exactly what's on my mind posting here on Andy's thread.

This possibility can only be real when the trader challenge the accepted norms of this industry, the sacred cows. Its easier for me since I'm somewhat an industry insider with my finance background. I started from this core base, one small step at a time asking hard questions all the time. It didn't happen overnight.

As a group of great minds you guys can and should be able to do more. Imv.
Know what you trade
  • #1,432
  • Edited 8:31pm Mar 18, 2021 8:19pm | Edited 8:31pm
Quoting almo
BWilliam - I'm ready to listen. -Almo
Ok. First things first. You have to get the base correct.

What GEfx, Shabs and swd wrote about how this interbank FX market operate is correct. I encourage everyone to Google read material about it especially if you don't have a finance education background. You want to get the basic right.

However, when retail traders talk about trading profitably from day to day, month to month, year to year this knowledge is not necessary. This knowledge does not make a trader profitable. If it was true, then all the Masters degree and PhDs will make great traders. We all know that's not true. So when someone tells he has a finance background it means nothing. If you don't have a finance education, just Google start learning about this forex industry. It doesn't matter if you don't.

My point is don't be tricked into believing that someone citing finance credentials automatically must mean they're good traders. Most of the time they're not.

First sacred cow to tear down.
Know what you trade
  • #1,433
  • Mar 18, 2021 8:25pm Mar 18, 2021 8:25pm
Quoting almo
BWilliam - I'm ready to listen. -Almo
If you read on FF you come across members claiming to work with banks and all sorts of financial institutions. Yes these members, if their claims are true, know the day to day operation of businesses in this industry. That's it. Again, their ability to trade is no different from the average Joe retail trader. Finance industry experience count for little when it comes down to actual trading. Such persons are just as ordinary as any other retail trader.

Second sacred cow to tear down.

In both cases, these so called "finance" person should know this basic truth. My hard question, "why tell such implied lies on forum to fool others" ?
Know what you trade
  • #1,434
  • Mar 18, 2021 8:44pm Mar 18, 2021 8:44pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Thanks a lot TT. I am not good with words. I know my explanation sucks. I'm more a numbers person since school days.
You wrote exactly what's on my mind posting here on Andy's thread.

This possibility can only be real when the trader challenge the accepted norms of this industry, the sacred cows.

Its easier for me since I'm somewhat an industry insider with my finance background.
I started from this core base, one small step at a time asking hard questions all the time.
It didn't happen overnight. As a group of...


Cheers BW,
very good to see you back, you have a sharp tongue (tho never offensive imo) AND a good heart so always welcome to see/read you.


Apologies I have been trading. And also seeing the market outside of what we call the norms, which to me is personal too.

This will be the last of my day result charts, as I am not out to impress someone as a poster said once (about someone else tho lol).
I do it to highlight a kind of Target Theory trading (I first heard from my friend george).


The Market is, if we can believe it, a very well oiled functioning place of business. Then why would it NOT operate under certain guidelines, and repeatable behaviours.

YOU BW have shown the biggest structure possible picture. Others have got down into the fascinating vol & liquidity aspect. Andy I know looks for his great setups at certain defined times during the week. And etc for others that have posted their shots.

We all have our way. Based on similar reasoning (if not exactly the same) that we are not actually being attacked personally by the market, IF we study the market, and work within ITS confines.

I had a poor start myself yesterday, entered early & closed early for a loss early, then got some back. London later fixed up my day extra 8p. And again this morning trading in the last half hour 14p.

None of this is magic or witchcraft.

It is BELIEVING the market is highly organised (and therefore repeatable).


I reckon my last result charts
(I hold the right though lol , to put up a structural chart now & then if I wish - thx Andy).


Traders can see. And traders can do. Believe in yourself (and believe in the market also - to repeat).

.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM1 sell target major small.png Size: 56 KB
  • #1,435
  • Mar 18, 2021 8:50pm Mar 18, 2021 8:50pm
Quoting almo
BWilliam - I'm ready to listen. -Almo
I have written many times that TA and FA is useless garbage.

If TA and FA were so good then why are there so many losers in this industry?

The explanation given is the trader. What these posters mean is they are the special elite group of traders that somehow make this widely known TA and FA work profitably, there are no details given. The follow on question must be, "what's YOUR secret sauce?" These members who wrote such claims about the trader makes the success automatically elevate themselves into this elite class traders with just writing this one claim. All anyone has to do is to write this one line. Thats how easy to fool this forum. Imagine how convincing when there's a red diamond to his monicker.

Third sacred cow to tear down.

My point is, if traders do the same thing that get 90+% losers, you expect to be a loser. There can be no other outcome.

I have written, for how long before the trader discard completely TA and FA as known by all the few thousand threads on here? The choice is yours to make.

If it works for you, carry on doing it. If not, doesn't it make sense and logic to make that difficult conclusion and decision?
Know what you trade
  • #1,436
  • Mar 18, 2021 8:57pm Mar 18, 2021 8:57pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This is my opinion and not fact. Question - how is it possible that price stays confined.....? Answer - ALL trading operation in the billions category has authorisation to trade within "preset limits". There must be proper justification and authorisation within each organisation to act inside and beyond such "limits". There are different authourised "limits" within each level of the organisation. This is a standard risk management protocol to safeguard the resources and assets of the organisation.
Hi. BWilliams

Question - You asked why does price stay confined?

Answer - If someone is in control of the order book where they have the bulk of liquidity that either long or short traders are seeking - they remain that primary liquidity provider.
But they have a problem because there is a group of special traders that can disrupt there plans.
A group of wankers I call the Breakout Boys.

They bring with them extreme volume which can swamp the order book and remove the primary Seller or buyers dominance’s.

It destroys their power to create orders out of fear.

Therefore if they move price past a resistance point or outside a congressed area, they fear the entry of these annoying bastards.

I hate these tosser’s as well as it makes reading the order book difficult.

Cheers

PS. - They do have a few friends of course in those ugly misguided tramps that call themselves “Trend traders”
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,437
  • Mar 18, 2021 9:17pm Mar 18, 2021 9:17pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}... If TA and FA were so good then why are there so many losers in this industry? ...
Because they were used for a wrong reason. Analyzing the market should be done to create a system, not to find trades. We then trade the system, not the market ...
Attached Image
(Let the market come before playing)
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #1,438
  • Mar 18, 2021 9:31pm Mar 18, 2021 9:31pm
Quoting almo
BWilliam - I'm ready to listen. -Almo
Why do I continue to make this statement, FA and TA is useless garbage?

Just take yesterdays EU market as example. It fell 80 pips thereabout 100+% adr from London market.

Did TA and FA told you in live market this is going to happen ?
At what point in the market TA told you the market will fall in the future ?

That's the hard question you have to ask to question the usefulness of TA.
As a trader, you have to ask this hard question. And if the answer is TA did not tell anything then why bother with TA then ?

Here's a common mistake that most members make.

Few members might know this market fall, but the hard question is whether they know it by gut feel or actual objective quantified TA ?
Can the trader point to the exact TA, whatever it means to him, on history chart NOW that told him this fall?

There's a huge difference to say I know EU fall from my 10000hours of screentime experience, and

I know because my objective quantified TA told me.

If it's the former, doesn't it mean TA is useless to these group of traders ?

That's why I have emphasised in my posts that every trader has to make a conclusion and decision about TA, whatever that is as represented by the few thousand threads on this forum or from whatever source.

If there's no change, don't expect change in the outcome.
Attached Image
Know what you trade
  • #1,439
  • Edited 10:00pm Mar 18, 2021 9:41pm | Edited 10:00pm
Quoting almo
BWilliam - I'm ready to listen. -Almo
This brings us to the core question about trading.

"Where does the edge sit on the chart?"

If you can't answer this question in an objective quantified manner, I'm sure you know what it means.
(The simple sensible and logical answer tend to cause offence.)

Here's the simple answer to this question.

Everytime you press the buy sell button and you can't say this moment, space and time sit the edge on the chart, you are essentially gambling blindly. The actual outcome is not important. Guessing(very close to 100%) is the most common method that traders use, not TA.

This is the core message of my posts. Pls read them in toto.

What made the difference in my journey is I was brave enough to get rid of TA that set me with nothing at that point the difficult decision was made.

If you don't find my posts tangible, I can't do more.

Cheers
BW
Know what you trade
  • #1,440
  • Mar 18, 2021 10:05pm Mar 18, 2021 10:05pm
Here I take the opportunity to point out how RickM use volume data to objectively quantify the market to guide his trading decision.

Everytime he press the buy sell button he is essentially saying at this moment, space and time sit the edge on the chart.

This is an example of a objective quantified approach.

It's not the only method.

However it must be a method that point to the edge in an objectively quantified manner.

What's yours?

Cheers
BW
Know what you trade
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