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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #83,721
  • Mar 16, 2021 11:41am Mar 16, 2021 11:41am
Quoting keshibr
{quote} Your short opened at what price?
108.788, then 108.907 and last 109.029 then close all at 108.977
+1$

Attached Image
Observer effect
  • #83,722
  • Mar 16, 2021 12:34pm Mar 16, 2021 12:34pm
As usual price was down, so I could get more than 1$... as usual
Observer effect
  • #83,723
  • Edited 6:21am Mar 17, 2021 3:58am | Edited 6:21am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} 108.788, then 108.907 and last 109.029 then close all at 108.977 +1$ {image}
You should get out nicely before the statement. They usually run a bear trap right before it then shoot up to take everyone out. The current highs are targets, but I still think the weekly will get a touch.

Weekly high range of 110.07 looks good for the long fake.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,724
  • Mar 17, 2021 4:12am Mar 17, 2021 4:12am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} You should get out nicely before the statement. They usually run a bear trap right before it then shoot up to take everyone out. The current highs are targets, but I still think the weekly will get a touch.
It was very risky situation because it was 1x, then 2x and then 4x lot size. I was ready to lose 10%.

My indicators show uptrend on USDJPY and I'll enter long if 109.246 will be broken up.

Yesterday was a very good trade on GU, but I was greedy and didn't close at my target (moved my TP lower). So gained only 40% of my target when GU reversed. After that I stuck at CAD and then with JPY. So I lost all the daily profit. But if I just close GU and then did nothing it will be about +3%.
Observer effect
  • #83,725
  • Mar 17, 2021 6:49am Mar 17, 2021 6:49am
Possible M forming of 1hr high, then 108.4 before fomc? let's see. pure speculation.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,726
  • Mar 17, 2021 8:23am Mar 17, 2021 8:23am
Attached Image

15m FT shows:

1. Price is in the dynamic channel +-0.25% adr - range
2. It is higher MA200 - uptrend
3. It can't break +0.23% level
4. It was reverse candle found near the 0.23% level
5. It is too late already for breakthrough

= to JPY trades today
Observer effect
  • #83,727
  • Mar 17, 2021 8:32am Mar 17, 2021 8:32am
I get the signal for usdjpy will going down soon.
I will buy again if it reach 109.55
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #83,728
  • Mar 17, 2021 8:44am Mar 17, 2021 8:44am
Quoting ryuryu
{image} 15m FT shows: 1. Price is in the dynamic channel +-0.25% adr - range 2. It is higher MA200 - uptrend 3. It can't break +0.23% level 4. It was reverse candle found near the 0.23% level 5. It is too late already for breakthrough = to JPY trades today

then it will fall
then it will fall
  • #83,729
  • Mar 17, 2021 8:45am Mar 17, 2021 8:45am
To go down first JPY need to crozz daily open, then MA200 and then previous day low which is -0.23% from daily open and >0.5% from current. I think it is impossible setup for today. Too big distance for JPY. May be tomorrow, but I don't like to toss a coin. Tomorrow will see.
Observer effect
  • #83,730
  • Mar 17, 2021 1:07pm Mar 17, 2021 1:07pm
Quoting ryuryu
To go down first JPY need to crozz daily open, then MA200 and then previous day low which is -0.23% from daily open and >0.5% from current. I think it is impossible setup for today. Too big distance for JPY. May be tomorrow, but I don't like to toss a coin. Tomorrow will see.
Four letters...FOMC.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,731
  • Mar 17, 2021 1:19pm Mar 17, 2021 1:19pm
Quoting ryuryu
To go down first JPY need to crozz daily open, then MA200 and then previous day low which is -0.23% from daily open and >0.5% from current. I think it is impossible setup for today. Too big distance for JPY. May be tomorrow, but I don't like to toss a coin. Tomorrow will see.
nothing imposibble in forex.
I ALWAYS TRUST ON MY INDICATOR.
  • #83,732
  • Mar 17, 2021 1:21pm Mar 17, 2021 1:21pm
Have we found support? Will the gap be filled? Stay tuned...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,733
  • Mar 17, 2021 1:42pm Mar 17, 2021 1:42pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Have we found support? Will the gap be filled? Stay tuned... {image}
I don't think so. We waited for this move too long.
But let's see! I might wrong.
  • #83,734
  • Mar 17, 2021 2:26pm Mar 17, 2021 2:26pm
Quoting bigiivan
{quote} I don't think so. We waited for this move too long. But let's see! I might wrong.
As long as Powell doesn't say anything too crazy I think we will pop once more before the drop. He should be done talking in a few mins. I have been waiting on the drop too, but they are tricky these market makers. If they know everyone is waiting on something they tend to rip the other way first doing a stop hunt.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,735
  • Edited 8:29pm Mar 17, 2021 8:10pm | Edited 8:29pm
Cup and handle? If we return to those highs.. I would wait to sell. Possible cup and handle coming.
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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MYP1OBZfFK0" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,736
  • Mar 17, 2021 8:32pm Mar 17, 2021 8:32pm
Inserted Video
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,737
  • Edited 2:46am Mar 18, 2021 2:34am | Edited 2:46am
Quoting PopeyeEA
{quote} nothing imposibble in forex. I ALWAYS TRUST ON MY INDICATOR.
Yes you are right, but as I said JPY has no strength. The key levels were:

1. 108.992 - daily open - it was broken
2. 108.772 - previous day low - was not and the price reversed/bounced from it
3. 108.741 - zone level. Touched by shadow.

Attached Image

Now price returns to the channel back. To start downtrend it need to break zero, previous low and the zone level again.
btw h1 - long, h4 - long, daily - long cycle just started
Observer effect
  • #83,738
  • Mar 18, 2021 2:38am Mar 18, 2021 2:38am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Have we found support? Will the gap be filled? Stay tuned... {image}
Obviously You was right.
  • #83,739
  • Edited 3:01am Mar 18, 2021 2:51am | Edited 3:01am
Gap has been filled. We are back where price dropped. Now let's see what happens. I believe we will range here for a bit, and then dip just before US unemployment news. If we pop off of it the weekly high of 109.8 may provide the long awaited drop. Otherwise we should be ready now. This is the only US news left to use this week.
IF we are going north cup and handle style, I would see us bouncing off of the area shown by the two red lines. The area provided by the gap. Strange though, I only find this gap on my cryptorocket account..
They sort of look like long orders that someone quickly took off the table when the news came out no?

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,740
  • Mar 18, 2021 3:12am Mar 18, 2021 3:12am
Profit taking here is expected. Remember EVERYONE said we would sell here, so anyone taking a long from below would jump ship here out of sheer prudence. Why be greedy?. Now let's get the greedy people back on board. Going long here will be exciting no? OOOOH.. how many more pips can we get?! 110? Almost. It is too obvious a target IMO, so just below it.

I could be wrong.. but if I were a Market Maker this is what I would do..

Notice the support at 38.6%
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
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