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Real or Algo

  • #1,141
  • Edited 4:32pm Mar 11, 2021 3:47pm | Edited 4:32pm
Quoting GEfx
Hold on a minute...are we now back to this? You have a special insight into the market before the market knows what's is going to do? Weren't you full of despair a few pages ago, questioning your forex experience and declaring yourself a failure? Now, we're back to you knowing what the market is going to do before the market knows. I think, if you go back a few pages, I more than answered your call to provide levels. Are we selectively forgetting or ignoring?
Why do you purposely distort what I have written?
How many intentional distortion has already happened on this thread?
Just to win arguments?
To justify your FA and TA work?
WTF

Ofc I expect this from you, Shabs, DM and those members who click like. The strong abusive language you use. It's soooo predictable.

This is a discussion about real or algo.
Not about people you try manipulate it to.
Personal attack is your silly strategy.
You've got nothing else.
Try harder.

Like what TimeTells wrote, nobody has offered proof that this single master algo cannot exist, that's how science handle new ideas.
Case close.
Know what you trade
  • #1,142
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:07pm Mar 11, 2021 4:07pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} I have no interest in Charles Dow or Elliot and what happened before 1996. My interest is the data I see formed on my chart and the source of that data. From 1996 the online data that arrives at my MT4 terminal from my broker is, as far as I'm concerned, provided through a single source. The feed is programmed and controlled, it will react to news which is why they know before, and we the punters know after the event. The whole purpose of online trading is to funnel money to the top. That's all it has to do. They achieve this with a data...

I think Dow and Elliott are very relevant points in this discussion, take a look at a chart if you can as far back as you can go , nothing has changed price does the same same thing as it did over 100 years ago and yet there were no algos or computer systems in those days.

Coincidental to your 1996 date in 1998 Equinix was formed so a little explanation for those not familiar with this company

"The key financial centers for global FX trading today are New York, London and Tokyo. Equinix runs major data centers in all three regions, with NY4, LD4 and TY3 all serving as centralized FX liquidity “macro-hubs.” These data centers form a critical part of the global Foreign Exchange market infrastructure, connecting retail and institutional traders to multiple FX trading platforms, ECNs, data vendors, a myriad of service providers, and hundreds of buyside and sell-side firms."

"By leveraging this global infrastructure, market participants are offered a neutral foundation from which to compete and collaborate within the world’s largest multi-asset class electronic trading ecosystem, facilitating the flow of currency in a truly follow-the-sun operating model."

“Most of the FX community now runs through Equinix data centers, which makes everything so much simpler in terms of implementing and connecting into everybody, versus having to manage individual infrastructures. The evolution of financial networks like Equinix has simplified the ability for everyone to connect with one and other in a fast and efficient manner.”

So i fail to see how a data feed can feed off millions of individual human emotions but i can understand how a data feed is a reflection of millions of human emotions.

As for your final point " I can see how it operates everyday, day in day out every pair" i can only congratulate you as you must have truly mastered the markets and can make money at will.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #1,143
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:18pm Mar 11, 2021 4:18pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Its a debate and thanks for the reply. Just an after thought. Several pairs this week made an identical move for me, as they always do. Exactly the same. As they do every week. Indeed as they do every pair on every timeframe. Its just a coincidence of course that all of the non crazy banking institutions and non crazy participants in this massive real 4 trillion market can all come together, participate and by sheer coincidence trigger the data to move exactly the same way, day in day out. Your post I though was very eloquent. You continue...
Hi moodybot, I don't think it's much of a debate when Team Algo refuses to present any data or proof of their claim regarding the existence of the single algo. But, to the claim that several pairs moved exactly the same way: I'm really interested in that. Can you provide the pairs and timeframes? I'd like to investigate. Thanks and good trading.
  • #1,144
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:20pm Mar 11, 2021 4:20pm
Quoting BWilliam
If price truly move based on actual supply and demand, nothing will be able to tell where price move next 1m, 5m, 15m, h1, H4, daily, weekly or monthly. Nothing work. Not TA, FA, QA or whatever.
Academics describe the markets as random walk and levy flight.

RickM, Z and the crew, see you guys this Christmas. Till then. Ciao.
Know what you trade
  • #1,145
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:26pm Mar 11, 2021 4:26pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Why do you purposely distort what I have written? How many intentional distortion has already happened on this thread? Just to win arguments? To justify your FA and TA work? WTF Ofc I expect this from you, Shabs, DM and those members who click like. The strong abusive language you use. It's soooo predictable. This is a discussion about real or algo. Not about people you try manipulate it to. Personal attack is your silly strategy. You've got nothing else. Try harder. Like what TimeTells wrote, nobody has offered proof that this single...
First, I'm not distorting anything. Go back and review your previous posts. What is "strong abusive language" to some is a dose of reality to others. You are the one who claims special powers, not me. But really, this has not been a discussion about real or algo. The case for real has been laid out for all to see. The case for algo has been nothing more that "Did you see how the charts were forming today? What do you think? What if it were an algo? Wouldn't that be cool?" I have a very low tolerance for BS, and you have set off my BS alarm more than most here. If it offends you for being called out, I am sorry. I suggest less BS on your part.
  • #1,146
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:29pm Mar 11, 2021 4:29pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Pipfarm, Cheers for your input. The Charles D reference has caught my interest. I'm having my morning cuppa here and thinking a bit laterally on things. When I was growing up as a kid, we never had debating teams in Oz at school. Yet they did in the States, as they were on the TV shows we got beamed. To me it was not so much interesting that those debating teams could present ideas & points in debate. But more when the members of a team stated thay had to debate a point from the "opposite" side of what their thoughts or bias's leant....

Yes Dow is quite brilliant as you say,,, it would be quite pointless to write an algo to manipulate fx to do the very same thing that already plays out with human emotion and behaviour.

Enjoy you cuppa or two
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #1,147
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:37pm Mar 11, 2021 4:37pm
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} I think Dow and Elliott are very relevant points in this discussion, take a look at a chart if you can as far back as you can go , nothing has changed price does the same same thing as it did over 100 years ago and yet there were no algos or computer systems in those days. Coincidental to your 1996 date in 1998 Equinix was formed so a little explanation for those not familiar with this company "The key financial centers for global FX trading today are New York, London and Tokyo. Equinix runs major data centers in all three regions, with...
Thanks for the post and taking part in the thread,
  • #1,148
  • Mar 11, 2021 4:58pm Mar 11, 2021 4:58pm
Quoting pipfarm
{quote}
Yes Dow is quite brilliant as you say,,, it would be quite pointless to write an algo to manipulate fx to do the very same thing that already plays out with human emotion and behaviour. Enjoy you cuppa or two

Cheers PipF,

While I agree, I have heard people in FX say the market is out to get them. And they usually say this is via manipulation.

But I don't think that is the contention here, with the single algo proposal. Just a way of running the markets which might make it outside the commonly accepted understanding that we are all in a true supply-demand auction market which does not seem the case to me.

I know that supply-demand is, AND must be, part of any market involving trading, but the question remains is that the real way this (retail) market operates.

That is the discussion.


If there would be single algo sitting atop FX I would not see its purpose to be that of manipulation, rather than an 'organisational' operation of the markets which are now dealing with computerised algorithmic traders and the HTF crew.

And by organisation I can only visualise boundaries (extremes), as our currency pricing relates most specifically to international trade, some international travellers and then US in retail trying to find TP.

If price was allowed to be run by the humans only, well the HTF bots in particular nowadays, then our market might end up similar to the stocks ie GameStop where a full on participation in one direction only could push currencies outside ANY boundaries.

I know CBs would have to step in, with the all powerful CB essentially controlling that possibilty, as all pairs are essentially traded off the USD base.

If the market went full-on rogue (not just flash instances) how could it be controlled -
only by another bot I am thinking.

And not an intermediatry bot, it would have to be a supreme bot that would oversee the whole show.


But I am still thinking on all this and caught in MY "horns of a dilemma."

---

If yourself or any have read the book "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance" then they will understand that stuck between the horns is NOT the place to be - and it's usually why folks will take one side OR the other and stick by it - myself I like the mental 'danger' of riding those Horns lol.

Thus I enjoy all these discussions, as discussions, without the requirement of absolute proof for my own needs.
  • #1,149
  • Mar 11, 2021 5:04pm Mar 11, 2021 5:04pm
Of course, if an algo had the capacity or code to drive traders into margin or S/L closure, then it might do that also
  • #1,150
  • Mar 11, 2021 5:09pm Mar 11, 2021 5:09pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Its a debate
That's a joke, a debate is when both sides present a case for their respective views, provide evidence for their belief with facts, not conjecture.

This thread should just be called Algo trading. Don't ask for the alternative view because you have already closed your mind.

If you don't understand why charts look similar and patterns repeat over & over then you don't really understand how the markets work.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,151
  • Mar 11, 2021 5:28pm Mar 11, 2021 5:28pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} That's a joke, a debate is when both sides present a case for their respective views, provide evidence for their belief with facts, not conjecture. This thread should just be called Algo trading. Don't ask for the alternative view because you have already closed your mind. If you don't understand why charts look similar and patterns repeat over & over then you don't really understand how the markets work.
Thanks for your point of view Shabs, I’ll take it that the matter is now closed. Thanks.
I’ll send Twee a Pm asking for the thread to be closed.
So glad that the data feed has been proven beyond all doubt that it’s not an Algo.
  • #1,152
  • Mar 11, 2021 5:55pm Mar 11, 2021 5:55pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Thanks for your point of view Shabs, I’ll take it that the matter is now closed. Thanks. I’ll send Twee a Pm asking for the thread to be closed. So glad that the data feed has been proven beyond all doubt that it’s not an Algo.
Wait, before you close it down, please send me the pairs and time frames where they behaved exactly the same. I'd like to look at that.
Edit: BTW, the preponderance of evidence presented here was on the "real" side. There was no evidence presented by Team Algo. Just to be clear.
  • #1,153
  • Edited 6:39pm Mar 11, 2021 6:20pm | Edited 6:39pm
BWilliams comments in italics, my replies in Blue

"If I knew since Tuesday that price will rise in the future market to 1.4006 that's derived from some math calculations, this future knowledge is proof that this current bullish price movement is not due to supply demand economics".
I have given you more levels than that, yet I am not making extravagant claims of future knowledge. NO maths whatsoever.
By the way, I make the target 1.40087


"Algo level 1.4006 is not a price target that traditional TA understands. It's the knowledge that I know price will move towards this value in the coming future.
People ask for proof. I have posted the proof."

Giving a price level is not proof. In that case I have proved beyond ay doubt, many times over, a single Algo does not exist
I gave you what you asked for and more, is that not proof from the TA Camp ?

"When I post proof, people mock my posting. WTF."

No-one is mocking you, If you make extravagant claims - Back them up or you make yourself sound foolish.
You have not provided any proof except one price level, yet you claim to know future prices before any professional banks etc . etc.
That statement is ridculous and you know it is.

"If price truly move based on actual supply and demand, nothing will be able to tell where price move next 1m, 5m, 15m, h1, H4, daily, weekly or monthly".
"Nothing work. Not TA, FA, QA or whatever"

Institutions spend millions of pounds on all the above, training, gathering reports , statistics, economic reports etc. etc. Is this all futile agianst your great knowledge. Why is this single algo running the markets, not world shattering news like Libor rate fixing was ?

You are shutting off debate at every turn, if you have something to present then why over 1000 post and we are still at the beginning ?
Not one of your cheer leaders has presnted any proof either. they simply agree & like your posts.

I see you like to monitor all the likes, and tha's why you picked on me with your challenge to give price levels, you never once asked me how I was able to do that or acknowledge taht they were all correct calls.

Maybe this thread has run it's course, it is a really great pity you wasted this opportunity to present your case.
Please do not request this thread to be deleted, New traders may gain some insights here for study. At least Give them that.

GeFx - I would be very surprised if you get anything more out of Team Algo except they are true believers, trust them they know, just have faith.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,154
  • Mar 11, 2021 6:28pm Mar 11, 2021 6:28pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Why do you purposely distort what I have written? How many intentional distortion has already happened on this thread? Just to win arguments? To justify your FA and TA work? WTF Ofc I expect this from you, Shabs, DM and those members who click like. The strong abusive language you use. It's soooo predictable. This is a discussion about real or algo. Not about people you try manipulate it to. Personal attack is your silly strategy. You've got nothing else. Try harder. Like what TimeTells wrote, nobody has offered proof that this single...
I asked a genuine question about what the master algo might have been doing on the day of the Swissy unpeg. You maybe just chose to ignore it or maybe you had no answer. What about GBP Black Wednesday? The reddit GameStop pump? Elon Musk's "Tesla too expensive" or Bitcoin tweets. If you say the algo just got it's butt kicked on these particular instruments on these particular days then that's fine. But if the algo is controlling price then it kinda doesn't make sense for a silly tweet from Elon Musk to over power it. And we can never stop or even know when the next Black Swan event will hit us.
  • #1,155
  • Edited 7:15pm Mar 11, 2021 6:41pm | Edited 7:15pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
I asked a genuine question about what the master algo might have been doing on the day of the Swissy unpeg. You maybe just chose to ignore it or maybe you had no answer. What about GBP Black Wednesday? The reddit GameStop pump? Elon Musk's "Tesla too expensive" or Bitcoin tweets. If you say the algo just got it's butt kicked on these particular instruments on these particular days then that's fine. But if the algo is controlling price then it kinda doesn't make sense for a silly tweet from Elon Musk to over power it. And we can never stop...
Hi DM, you pose a genuine question I assume with a want to know attitude I respond with an answer from single master algo perspective.

Algo math as I know it can't predict black swan events. No way. There are lots of aspects of normal price moves that I can't predict/understand when/where/how/what will happen in the future. So forget about black swan events.

Specific about black swan events, example SNB, that huge spike was with a stddev way outside the norm that can't be predicted. But even with such magnitude of stddev it did not change the algo pricing structure at all. The before and after structure remain intact. The algo did eventually trade back to its original math code structure with nothing changed. What more with normal price moves with normal stddev. The algo is always in control.

That's why if you read my earlier post I wrote that this master algo math is not only about price levels that traditional TA understands. There's much more to it than what I have posted on this forum.

This is my genuine answer to you. It's perfectly OK if anyone thinks it's bullshite. Np. Now don't go on another mocking tantrum with this post. I'm out of here.

Ps, you complain why I make edits to my post. Answer - English is not my first language. I make corrections for spelling, grammar and sentence structure to reflect the correct intended message. And to extend the post to cover all aspects that it's complete. I chose not to make new post because I don't want to spam threads.
Know what you trade
  • #1,156
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:05pm Mar 11, 2021 7:05pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Wait, before you close it down, please send me the pairs and time frames where they behaved exactly the same. I'd like to look at that. Edit: BTW, the preponderance of evidence presented here was on the "real" side. There was no evidence presented by Team Algo. Just to be clear.
So just to be clear, I’ll post a few charts.
With my analysis or just plain?
  • #1,157
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:06pm Mar 11, 2021 7:06pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} So just to be clear, I’ll post a few charts. With my analysis or just plain?
Plain. Please.
  • #1,158
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:13pm Mar 11, 2021 7:13pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi DM, you pose a genuine question I assume with a want to know attitude I respond with an answer from single master algo perspective. Algo math as I know it can't predict black swan events. No way. There are lots of aspects of normal price moves that I can't predict/understand when/where/how/what will happen in the future. So forget about black swan events. Specific about black swan events, example SNB, that huge spike was a stddev way outside the norm that can't be predicted. But even with such magnitude of stddev it did not change the...
Ok, as u said in #1105.... "Question Everything"

You said above "There are lots of aspects of normal price moves that I can't predict/understand when/where/how/what will happen in the future"
Now, in #714 you said "If this single algo is true the following must also be true,1. This forex market is not random"

I take it by "normal price moves" you mean the normal daily movements (excluding obviously Black Swans and other chaos). If some of these moves can't be predicted, are you saying it's a work-in-progress to try and understand them too, or are you saying that parts of the forex market might be random and unpredictable? (again, excluding major price-changing events)
  • #1,159
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:17pm Mar 11, 2021 7:17pm
Quoting GEfx
Wait, before you close it down, please send me the pairs and time frames where they behaved exactly the same. I'd like to look at that. Edit: BTW, the preponderance of evidence presented here was on the "real" side. There was no evidence presented by Team Algo. Just to be clear.
This falls under corellation topic.
Know what you trade
  • #1,160
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:28pm Mar 11, 2021 7:28pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
Ok, as u said in #1105.... "Question Everything" You said above "There are lots of aspects of normal price moves that I can't predict/understand when/where/how/what will happen in the future" Now, in #714 you said "If this single algo is true the following must also be true,1. This forex market is not random" I take it by "normal price moves" you mean the normal daily movements (excluding obviously Black Swans and other chaos). If some of these moves can't be predicted, are you saying it's a work-in-progress to try and understand them too,...
I answered this expected question in this post quoting CP.

Quoting BWilliam
The main thing to understand is this post that's directly related to this single master algo. "There is a certain degree that the market is very predictable. There is also a certain degree that the market is random. A Professional trader understands this concept and adds it to his trading arsenal." unquote CP
This algo math will always be in the state of work in progress. There's so much more on the chart that I still yet to figure out. Ofc I will never be able to figure all of them to the level to be able to predict black swan events.

From my research work I am convinced that there parts that's random and will always be random. The same conclusion that CP wrote. Who knows one day in the future I make the discovery that's not possible today.

If that ever happen it has to fall on my lap by some luck. Because I'm too old to go searching for unicorns. I fully satisfied with what I have. TimeTells understand this part.
Know what you trade
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