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Real or Algo

  • #1,121
  • Edited 12:11pm Mar 11, 2021 6:47am | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
Some would say the SNB are the ultimate crooks of the forex world, "On 12 January 2015, Jean-Pierre Danthine, the vice-chairman of the SNB, went on television and said: "We are convinced that the minimum exchange rate must remain the cornerstone of our monetary policy." When, three days later, the SNB did the exact opposite, it was a complete surprise to the market. The response was dramatic." Now THAT'S what I call predicting the future price ! But in all seriousness,...
I remember the CHF plunge and it's aftermath. I was looking at the charts, listening to a conference call with some of my trading group, and had turned away to set down my coffee cup, when this big red candle suddenly appeared on the chart, and everyone on the call says WTF at nearly the exact second. It was the most irresponsible thing a central bank has ever done, imo. I had no trades in at the time, but it took several days to determine that my broker had survived. One of the things we did do, as a result of this deep dive on the CHF, was open an account with a different broker, and dedicate that account to buying CHF. If you look at that chart, it's obvious that huge amounts of buy orders were left stranded at banks and funds all over the world, and to me, the safest trade on earth was the square up of that big, unexpected move. The square up is a sure a thing as the sun coming up in the morning.
  • #1,122
  • Mar 11, 2021 6:51am Mar 11, 2021 6:51am
Quoting GEfx
I remember the CHF plunge and it's aftermath. I was looking at the charts, listening to a conference call with some of my trading group, and had turned away to set down my coffee cup, when this big red candle suddenly appeared on the chart, and everyone on the call says WTF at nearly the exact second. It was the most irresponsible thing a central bank has ever done, imo. I had no trades in at the time, but it took several days to determine that my broker had survived. One of the things we did do, as a result of this deep dive on the CHF,...
This proof that EVERYTHING comes under the algo's jurisdiction, including SNB. In believers eyes.
Know what you trade
  • #1,123
  • Mar 11, 2021 6:52am Mar 11, 2021 6:52am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi GEfx, If we (retail) are getting, on our MT4 screens the same pricing (~) as Tier are seeing also, then that helps me yes. I had a quick look at the Saxo site where they show current pricing. (they are also an LP through my Broker). And there's was close to the pip from my current mt4 chart. (But in 4 digit offer NOT 5 digit ?) If Tier trade in 4 digit (?) that could provide some interesting profit on the last digit for someone (not retail). Thank you.
Hi TT, I've never liked the 5 digit thing on my broker. He shows the E$ in 5, but the G$ in 4. It annoys me, but that is life. If I were a banker, I'd be challenged enout keeping track of 4 digit, and my head might blow up if they forced me to track 5.
  • #1,124
  • Edited 7:09am Mar 11, 2021 6:55am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting swd
If there is a single master algo moving the markets, it seems that the big banks and players are not aware of it anymore than we are.

Hi swd,

Cheers for that.

Not aware of it, (or constrained unknowingly by it.)

That, would have to be a Big Hand above them, yes.


I see price running around (random buying & selling ?) to a target above and below current price.

Each day.

While, all players, banks, hedge groups, institutions etc at the high level would all have to be re-arranging their trades at the same time together when price reverses for example (and maybe they do).

Or they are always hedged (cross pairs, not same pair both ways) and run the trades on their books in DD, balanced out by other trades, and then just wait for price to return to close out at TP or BE.

I knew a trader (brother of a co-employee) who worked at Macquarie Bank in Sydney during the 2008 madness. But I knew NOTHING about FX then so I couldn't ask him the questions I would want to now. He was all caffeine & ciggies and always twitchy. They were salaried employees and seemed to be just gambling/trading from what i could tell (when I discussed horses with him lol).

No one will let the cat out of the bag no doubt.

A brain stretcher (unless you just say NO to the SA concept).

And thanks again.

It's a discussion, no right or wrong.
  • #1,125
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:02am Mar 11, 2021 7:02am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} From the manner you write your posts about trading you are more a fundamentals trading with TA playing the role of trade entry. That's typical description of the "professional" retail forex trader. It's quite easy to recognise such traders with their posts on FF.
Hi BWilliam,
Yes I live in both camps. I see market structure as being primarily a function of fundamentals, with a little TA thrown in, and market narrative as being primarily TA, with a little fundamental thrown in. I study FA every day, and have a log of every FA and its impact on the market, for the last 17 years. I also have a log of every trade I've made over the last 17 years, and the TA that I relied on to make the trade. So I've fused both TA and FA in my head and can't consider one without the other.
  • #1,126
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:08am Mar 11, 2021 7:08am
Quoting GEfx
Hi BWilliam, Yes I live in both camps. I see market structure as being primarily a function of fundamentals, with a little TA thrown in, and market narrative as being primarily TA, with a little fundamental thrown in. I study FA every day, and have a log of every FA and its impact on the market, for the last 17 years. I also have a log of every trade I've made over the last 17 years, and the TA that I relied on to make the trade. So I've fused both TA and FA in my head and can't consider one without the other.
I see market structure as a math formula, hence the algo code. I might fall under the quantitative technique category.
Know what you trade
  • #1,127
  • Mar 11, 2021 7:59am Mar 11, 2021 7:59am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi swd, Cheers for that. Not aware of it, (or constrained unknowingly by it.) That, would have to be a Big Hand above them, yes. I see price running around (random buying & selling ?) to a target above and below current price. Each day. While, all players, banks, hedge groups, institutions etc at the high level would all have to be re-arranging their trades at the same time together when price reverses for example (and maybe they do). Or they are always hedged (cross pairs, not same pair both ways) and run the trades on their books in DD,...
No worries TT. Just a discussion.

To me price appears random between extremes (or highs and lows) but then you have to consider the affect of dark pools shown on the chart that retail do not have access too. These private exchanges hide the big transaction volumes done by banks and other LP's, contributing to the thin volume profile you see today (because they're conducted on a private exchange that is only reflected in the banks pricing to you afterwards).

That is where the real veil of secrecy lies, dark pools, making there way more fully into the FX market nowadays. Lots of different types of pool, lots of ways to hide big transactions and their buyers/sellers. That's where the real liquidity is, the thing that helps to keep the markets spinning along, not the charts and volumes we see right now. It might explain why some of the volume profiling done does not "add up" given the move that happens afterwards. Some may see this, some may not, depends who your LP is and whether they are using dark pools.
  • #1,128
  • Mar 11, 2021 8:01am Mar 11, 2021 8:01am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I remember the CHF plunge and it's aftermath. I was looking at the charts, listening to a conference call with some of my trading group, and had turned away to set down my coffee cup, when this big red candle suddenly appeared on the chart, and everyone on the call says WTF at nearly the exact second. It was the most irresponsible thing a central bank has ever done, imo. I had no trades in at the time, but it took several days to determine that my broker had survived. One of the things we did do, as a result of this deep dive on the CHF,...

WTF indeed ! I can vividly remember 11th Sep 2001. I'd been spreadbetting on Ftse and Dax in the morning and taken a break to go for a swim at the local pool. I remember coming back out of the changing rooms and seeing folk just staring at the tragic events on the lounge TV. Driving home I thought "sh!t" as i often left limit orders at the outer edge of what i thought would be the day's trading range. No phone app to quickly check back then and no chance of getting through to SB on phone.. .but very fortunate not to get caught out badly on that day. That day changed the whole way I think about trading.....since then I haven't done any overnight or unattended trades...in and out...money exposed to the market maybe 3 hrs max in any day (i know, brokers can still go bust..but u can't eliminate risk completely).


Yes..the bounce back on USDCHF was quick...but it did take 4 years or so on the EURCHF i think
  • #1,129
  • Mar 11, 2021 9:10am Mar 11, 2021 9:10am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi swd, Cheers for that. Not aware of it, (or constrained unknowingly by it.) That, would have to be a Big Hand above them, yes. I see price running around (random buying & selling ?) to a target above and below current price. Each day. While, all players, banks, hedge groups, institutions etc at the high level would all have to be re-arranging their trades at the same time together when price reverses for example (and maybe they do). Or they are always hedged (cross pairs, not same pair both ways) and run the trades on their books in DD,...
Final thing I wanted to say, do not believe that banks and hedge funds alway win, they get caught by moves in the markets just as much as we do. They are just as fallible as you and I, except we can move a hell of alot quicker than they can. We can trade when we want, at what size we want for as long as we want. It is very different for them due to regulation and reporting lines. Banks and funds are all fair game in the market as much as retailers are, in some ways to a much greater extent due to the size of the bounty involved.

Anyay, great chat. I think I have spoken to you before on skype a long time ago. I'm the mad coder who freelanced for some institutions in the risk free algo division. I made an algo and ran it for some years, to have it stop working. You may remember me, probably not lol. Anyway I'm still going, learnt how charts work, making a few quid and I feel pretty free from the burdens of "normal working life" now.

Cheers
swd
  • #1,130
  • Mar 11, 2021 9:17am Mar 11, 2021 9:17am
They must have invented this algo in the 1880s because Charles Dow coincidentally noticed the exact same patterns in the financial markets as we see today or maybe it was in the 1950s when Ralph Nelson Elliott noticed these same patterns.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #1,131
  • Mar 11, 2021 10:02am Mar 11, 2021 10:02am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} The single Algo hypothesis being discussed in this thread isn’t being used as an excuse of a failure to trade. On the contrary it’s being discussed as a possible reason for the same moves occurring on a more than regular basis that could be exploited. Cheers.
So in effect you are saying that the forex market is not de-centralised. That's a bold statement, one single algo running the whole show.
So The Fed, BOE , ECB, BOJ , governments, institutions, Major & Minor Banks, LP's et al. are at the mercy of this unregulated algo ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,132
  • Mar 11, 2021 2:19pm Mar 11, 2021 2:19pm
Quoting pipfarm
They must have invented this algo in the 1880s because Charles Dow coincidentally noticed the exact same patterns in the financial markets as we see today or maybe it was in the 1950s when Ralph Nelson Elliott noticed these same patterns.

I have no interest in Charles Dow or Elliot and what happened before 1996.
My interest is the data I see formed on my chart and the source of that data.
From 1996 the online data that arrives at my MT4 terminal from my broker is, as far as I'm concerned, provided through a single source.
The feed is programmed and controlled, it will react to news which is why they know before, and we the punters know after the event.
The whole purpose of online trading is to funnel money to the top. That's all it has to do.
They achieve this with a data feed that feeds entirely off of human emotions.

Can someone map out for me exactly how their own data feed is provided to them, through broker, liquidity providers etc and all that bollox.
I can't prove its one source, but I can see how it operates everyday, day in day out every pair.

Occams razor..... single source Algo or huge financial institutions all agreeing on price, how data is distributed, who gets the data, ... how on earth can a de-centralised 4 trillion market be left to its own devices and not blown to smithereens.

Nope, not for me.

One source.
  • #1,133
  • Mar 11, 2021 2:52pm Mar 11, 2021 2:52pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote}
Occams razor..... single source Algo or huge financial institutions all agreeing on price, how data is distributed, who gets the data, ... how on earth can a de-centralised 4 trillion market be left to its own devices and not blown to smithereens. Nope, not for me. One source.

Not holding back Andy, and I wouldn't expect anything different pal, standing right to your ground.

Your view is as thought out as anything from the non-algo folk, so respect to you.

It's a discussion. And it all is interesting to me.
  • #1,134
  • Edited 3:36pm Mar 11, 2021 2:59pm | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting moodybot
I have no interest in Charles Dow or Elliot and what happened before 1996. My interest is the data I see formed on my chart and the source of that data. From 1996 the online data that arrives at my MT4 terminal from my broker is, as far as I'm concerned, provided through a single source. The feed is programmed and controlled, it will react to news which is why they know before, and we the punters know after the event. The whole purpose of online trading is to funnel money to the top. That's all it has to do. They achieve this with a data...
The main thing is that price does not move due to supply demand economics. If I knew since Tuesday that price will rise in the future market to 1.4006 that's derived from some math calculations, this future knowledge is proof that this current bullish price movement is not due to supply demand economics. Suddenly there this excess demand over supply from Tuesday that push price upwards. BS. That's algo at work.

***Just keep watching price from NOW, you may learn how the algo work.

Algo level 1.4006 is not a price target that traditional TA understands. It's the knowledge that I know price will move towards this value in the coming future. That's a huge difference its a one number not 10 bs support resistance numbers plotted on your chart, hope some number hit. There's no need to wait for some upcoming future fundamental news release.

People ask for proof. I have posted the proof. When I post proof, people mock my posting. WTF.

If price truly move based on actual supply and demand, nothing will be able to tell where price move next 1m, 5m, 15m, h1, H4, daily, weekly or monthly. Nothing work. Not TA, FA, QA or whatever.
Know what you trade
  • #1,135
  • Edited 3:21pm Mar 11, 2021 3:09pm | Edited 3:21pm
Quoting pipfarm
They must have invented this algo in the 1880s because Charles Dow coincidentally noticed the exact same patterns in the financial markets as we see today or maybe it was in the 1950s when Ralph Nelson Elliott noticed these same patterns.

Hi Pipfarm,

Cheers for your input. The Charles D reference has caught my interest.

I'm having my morning cuppa here and thinking a bit laterally on things.


When I was growing up as a kid, we never had debating teams in Oz at school.

Yet they did in the States, as they were on the TV shows we got beamed.


To me it was not so much interesting that those debating teams could present ideas & points in debate.

But more when the members of a team stated thay had to debate a point from the "opposite" side of what their thoughts or bias's leant.


So I tried to debate in my mind re Dow that you mentioned & the possibility of a (single) algo.

IF. Someone was wanting to, OR required to, develop a single algo for the market. A top of the line quant, or a team of quants for example.

Would they just start out with a little code and see where it led them.

OR.

Might they go right to the TOP, at the very start.

And build a single algo code around the most original (and quite brilliant) market understanding that had been written about from the beginning of our understanding of market mechanics and how it plays out with human emotion and behaviour.


By using the original notes and ideas that Dow may have given the world.


What IF the single algo had been written and implemented by coders, BASED on Dow Theory.


Would any quant (coder) trying to develop (for someone) a single algo want to use ANY OTHER base for their inspiration.


I am not saying this IS or what has happened .

Just having a cup of tea and mulling over possibilites from the alternate side of your statement about Dow.

A bit of brain-tease fun for me.

Thx for your input PipF which has got me thinking deeper again about the discussion we are all having on the topic.
  • #1,136
  • Mar 11, 2021 3:18pm Mar 11, 2021 3:18pm
Quoting swd
{quote}
Anyay, great chat. I think I have spoken to you before on skype a long time ago.
I'm the mad coder who freelanced for some institutions in the risk free algo division.
I made an algo and ran it for some years, to have it stop working.
You may remember me, probably not lol.
Anyway I'm still going, learnt how charts work, making a few quid and I feel pretty free from the burdens of "normal working life" now.
Cheers swd

Hi swd,

Wow what a morning here, with my cup of tea.

I did not remember yesterday.

But when I read your post now it jogged everything and I DO remember.


We all had a great Skype chat which was what I enjoyed most about those times.

Gotta be around two years ago, now, well done.

I do remember you coding for institutions and we discussed the privacy aspects, which I respect.

while


Anyway I'm still going, learnt how charts work, making a few quid and I feel pretty free from the burdens of "normal working life" now.


This statement from you is a wonderful thing and an inspiration, from the weirdest year on the planet for everybody last year, that you have found your "place" is terrfic stuff to hear.

Wishing you the best, always, swd
Pete

(ps I also remember you as Mr. Lwma not Mr tma-tru lol )
  • #1,137
  • Mar 11, 2021 3:21pm Mar 11, 2021 3:21pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hi swd, Wow what a morning here, with my cup of tea. I did not remember yesterday. But when I read your post now it jogged everything and I DO remember. We all had a great Skype chat which was what I enjoyed most about those times. Gotta be around two years ago, now, well done. I do remember you coding for institutions and we discussed the privacy aspects, which I respect. while Anyway I'm still going, learnt how charts work, making a few quid and I feel pretty free from the burdens of "normal working life" now. This statement from you is...
I will always remember swd who got a nda contract and left the forum at that time. I love his insightful posts. That's 2 years ago.
Know what you trade
  • #1,138
  • Mar 11, 2021 3:32pm Mar 11, 2021 3:32pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote}
My interest is the data I see formed on my chart and the source of that data.

The whole purpose of online trading is to funnel money to the top. That's all it has to do. They achieve this with a data feed that feeds entirely off of human emotions.

Can someone map out for me exactly how their own data feed is provided to them, through broker, liquidity providers etc and all that bollox.

I can't prove its one source, but I can see how it operates everyday, day in day out every pair. Occams razor......
I think we're slowly drilling down to the root purpose of this thread. Sadly, it's not close to what I thought was going on here.

To your first point, I bet if you called your broker, they could tell you their data source. You can learn a lot about forex data, it's sources, the providers, even get free APIs if you want to sign up and start pulling down fx data, simply to using Google. I gotta tell you, this shit is only a mystery to those who haven't done the research.

To your second point, someone commented a dozen pages or so ago, that the basic premise of the SA sounds like a common FF complaint, that everything in retail forex is stacked against the poor unsuspecting retail trader, which apparently now includes your algo, as if an algo is required to separate money from bad traders. Let's give this BS a rest in this thread. Or is that the purpose of the thread?

To your third point, why don't you do the data mapping? It's your crazy misconception, not mine. You do the work to prove your point. There's a theme in this thread that the algo exists. And no one here need provide any proof, rather, the sane, rational people who KNOW the algo is BS must prove it doesn't exist. To those of you on Team Algo, you are under the influence of a crazy idea, because it serves the purpose of explaining away your ignorance or trading failure. Stop. Save yourself. Come back to reality.

To your final point, if this is your mind set, may I suggest stepping back from forex trading? Have you thought about stamp collecting?
  • #1,139
  • Mar 11, 2021 3:43pm Mar 11, 2021 3:43pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The main thing is that price does not move due to supply demand economics. If I knew since Tuesday that price will rise in the future market to 1.4006 that's derived from some math calculations, this future knowledge is proof that this current bullish price movement is not due to supply demand economics. Suddenly there this excess demand over supply from Tuesday that push price upwards. BS. That's algo at work. ***Just keep watching price from NOW, you may learn how the algo work. Algo level 1.4006 is not a price target that traditional...
Hold on a minute...are we now back to this? You have a special insight into the market before the market knows what's is going to do? Weren't you full of despair a few pages ago, questioning your forex experience and declaring yourself a failure? Now, we're back to you knowing what the market is going to do before the market knows. I think, if you go back a few pages, I more than answered your call to provide levels. Are we selectively forgetting or ignoring?
  • #1,140
  • Edited 3:59pm Mar 11, 2021 3:46pm | Edited 3:59pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I think we're slowly drilling down to the root purpose of this thread. Sadly, it's not close to what I thought was going on here. To your first point, I bet if you called your broker, they could tell you their data source. You can learn a lot about forex data, it's sources, the providers, even get free APIs if you want to sign up and start pulling down fx data, simply to using Google. I gotta tell you, this shit is only a mystery to those who haven't done the research. To your second point, someone commented a dozen pages or so ago, that...
Its a debate and thanks for the reply.

Just an after thought.

Several pairs this week made an identical move for me, as they always do. Exactly the same. As they do every week. Indeed as they do every pair on every timeframe.
Its just a coincidence of course that all of the non crazy banking institutions and non crazy participants in this massive real 4 trillion market can all come together, participate and by sheer coincidence trigger the data to move exactly the same way, day in day out.
Your post I though was very eloquent.
You continue to trade your natural breathing market, and I’ll trade the Algo.
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