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Real or Algo

  • #901
  • Mar 7, 2021 1:25am Mar 7, 2021 1:25am
Quoting moodybot
{quote}
Hi Pete Exactly. It’s a computer generated signal which we humans have to interpret as price and time on a chart.
Price meanders deliberately in an attempt to show that its a natural market or random walk when in reality, it’s computer generated.
Its sole purpose is to induce trading!

That would be my thought. Playing with the aggregate holdings of longs & shorts until an imbalance.

I would love someone from Tier to "sneak" out to us all a current price the USD was trading at, in exchange against the Euro.
At the very same timestamp so we could compare that against an MT4 feed price.

But then, that might set another cat among the pigeons .
  • #902
  • Mar 7, 2021 2:29am Mar 7, 2021 2:29am
Guys, I personally agree algo exist. And that's why. First of all every day I see the same patterns, same price behavior. And next strange thing that market allow to earn only 1% (approximately) per session. I don't know why, but if I made 1% and quit everything is ok. If I try to make more - it will lead to loss anyway. Like the algo start to hunt for me. I know that it sounds like... but trust me I don't believe in magic. And that's why this is very strange. I tried different alogs to trade, time, session, approach... 1% = ok, take and run.
Has anyone else come across this?
Observer effect
  • #903
  • Mar 7, 2021 3:12am Mar 7, 2021 3:12am
Quoting BWilliam
First off, I don't know if there's a single master algo moving price. I borrowed this narrative from George. However, I don't buy into his psychology manipulation and stoploss hunting hypothesis. I simply call it illusion since I can't explain for it. So in summation it's single master algo painting illusion on our chart. I call it an illusion because it does not follow any known laws, principles or theories. It's what the academics call random walk and levy flight. Essentially this makes it random and unpredictable. That's why so many members...
IF this assumption that there's this single master algo paint illusion on our chart then the traditional accepted concept of supply demand auction market economics has to be not true.

This means that traditional TA based on supply demand is useless. This is true because with TA it got so many losers.

We must also agree that this master algo is coded base on some math logic.

That the only way to gain any edge over this illusion is found in the math code.

I am a strong proponent of this idea. The complete single master algo driving this giant trillion dollar interbank forex casino in the wholesale market.

It's understandable that people are reluctant to accept and very against this complete idea because it suggest that this entire forum has been fooled.
Everything written on this forum and such forex forums is completely disconnected to what this interbank forex casino market really is.
EVERYONE is defending the traditional turf because to accept this new proposition would be to deny the old and to YOU as an individual it means YOU have nothing for this gigantic casino. Absolute NOTHING.

No matter, YOU have to make a decision.
Are you 100% certain that this is the supply demand auction market of buyers and sellers that you were told ? !00% ?
And IF you're wrong then imagine how YOU have been fooled. Easy to explain for the 99.02% losers, isn't it ?
Know what you trade
  • #904
  • Edited 4:44am Mar 7, 2021 3:35am | Edited 4:44am
There don't exist a supply and demand interbank forex auction market.

There's only a interbank forex casino facilitated by a master algo.

You can't find a solution if your understanding is wrong.

You are looking for the solution in the wrong place.

Again are you 100% certain that this is a interbank forex auction market that host supply and demand economics of buyers and sellers ?
(This is the easy no pressure cop out herd position that we were taught in school.)

If so, why so many traders(bank, institutional and retail) end up losers ? How do you explain for this ?
If this is a genuine trading market why is the speculative segment so high percentage ?

And why are you so bias to accept this traditional narrative instead of maintain an open mind ?
Are you aware YOUR closed mind affect one person on this planet, YOU ?
There are no arguments to win.

Like I wrote in my earlier post, hard questions ALL traders have to answer.
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Know what you trade
  • #905
  • Mar 7, 2021 7:02am Mar 7, 2021 7:02am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I did not ignore your request. How can I ignore a sceptic's request ? I read your post in bed took a look at mt4 phone apps, then figured hard how to respond to your post given what I saw ??? I decided then that it's best not to make a reply. BUT I will make a post at the end of the trading day, make a bit of comment. I went back to sleep after that. You take a look at the pics then make your own conclusions. The algo level for SPX is seen late in the day. For Oil, there's no relevant algo level for Friday. I would have written as "just...
Watch out !! You'll have the Hindsight Police issuing u with another ticket
Yes. it's obvious now that pressing that damn buy button would have been a good ploy on Fri as well as Thurs, but that Time Machine I'm saving up for is pretty damned expensive.
So, the "algo" for Oil and SPX were "ridiculous levels" on these days? Or maybe did the "algo" get it's ass handed to it on a plate by BIG players stepping in with BIG money? Hmm, just a thought.
There's a good reason for SPX hitting that high on friday..it's not advanced PhD maths. I'm not going to use re-branded terms like "algo illusion" or "herd mentality zones" bla bla bla, but it's as old as the hills..and as other posters on this thread have already said....IT's ALL ABOUT THE STOPS. We just have to look left and observe the pain they might be causing....what's a decent stop level to hit? 10 point on SPX? 7? 5? Of course it depends on timeframe u want to trade and the probabilities of it hitting that stop and rebounding in that timeframe.

Real or Algo? well, we're on page 46 of this thread. Of course there are algos at work all over the place. Is there really one big algo that rules all the others for each instrument? Is there one "Master Algo" controlling everything? This has so far not been answered here as we are none the wiser as to who the beneficiary of such multiple trillions may be.

As TimeTells said, you keep posting things, then multiple edits, then deleting posts after people have already commented on the post. Then the change of identities. All this INDECISION. I found in my own trading that indecisiveness was the major profit killer that had to be cured. Plan your trade...trade your plan.
  • #906
  • Edited 7:55am Mar 7, 2021 7:31am | Edited 7:55am
There's only ONE takeaway message that's important to us traders in this real or algo discussion.

If it's real then by all means use traditional TA.
IF it work for YOU, well done go make your millions.

If it's algo it means traditional TA didn't work for YOU.
That's 99.02% of losers.
You lost to this math based algo.
You gambled against a PRNG.

Winning with traditional TA does not validate it to be real.

IF YOU are a winner(0.08%) with TA YOU won't waste time with this algo conspiracy. This thread serve you no purpose. Move on, there are plenty other threads that are suitable for YOU.

Double talk is the stupidest to do.
Worse than a loser.

It's that simple.
Like I wrote, this is a discussion not an argument.
There's no validation required. To each his own.
Know what you trade
  • #907
  • Mar 7, 2021 7:42am Mar 7, 2021 7:42am
Deleted my posts, wasted my time twice in this unwelcoming discussions.
on a postive roll...
  • #908
  • Mar 7, 2021 8:11am Mar 7, 2021 8:11am
Quoting Rmg
Deleted my posts, wasted my time twice in this unwelcoming discussions.
Your first post that you deleted was a rare testimony from a real user that add value to this discussion.
Know what you trade
  • #909
  • Mar 7, 2021 8:15am Mar 7, 2021 8:15am
Quoting Rmg
Deleted my posts, wasted my time twice in this unwelcoming discussions.
As a silent student only what I can say it is pity...
  • #910
  • Mar 7, 2021 8:37am Mar 7, 2021 8:37am
Quoting BWilliam
There's only ONE takeaway message that's important to us traders in this real or algo discussion. If it's real then by all means use traditional TA. IF it work for YOU, well done go make your millions. If it's algo it means traditional TA didn't work for YOU. That's 99.02% of losers. You lost to this math based algo. You gambled against a PRNG. Winning with traditional TA does not validate it to be real. IF YOU are a winner(0.08%) with TA YOU won't waste time with this algo conspiracy. This thread serve you no purpose. Move on, there are plenty...
Oh, here we go..2nd edit already..no doubt it'll have changed again by the time I finish reply.
99.02% losers .. Big claims.... I must be one of them I guess...thankfully my bank balance isn't decimated by such stats.
Trading by scalping probabilities is BORING. I'm always on the lookout for something different in trading. Maybe the path of price can be ultimately known (ok, with a wee spike here or there to throw the dumb money off the scent). There will always be people come out claiming they've cracked this or cracked that. I guess my weak spot is reacting to these kinds of posts. I look for proof..but ultimately I'm always left disappointed
  • #911
  • Mar 7, 2021 8:41am Mar 7, 2021 8:41am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
There will always be people come out claiming they've cracked this or cracked that. I guess my weak spot is reacting to these kinds of posts. I look for proof..but ultimately I'm always left disappointed
Why should you be affected by other people's claims? Why live a life of disappointment, impose upon others to show proof to you? Just read it as a fairy tale and laugh it off.
Know what you trade
  • #912
  • Mar 7, 2021 8:51am Mar 7, 2021 8:51am
Quoting BWilliam
There's only ONE takeaway message that's important to us traders in this real or algo discussion. If it's real then by all means use traditional TA. IF it work for YOU, well done go make your millions. If it's algo it means traditional TA didn't work for YOU. That's 99.02% of losers. You lost to this math based algo. You gambled against a PRNG. Winning with traditional TA does not validate it to be real. IF YOU are a winner(0.08%) with TA YOU won't waste time with this algo conspiracy. This thread serve you no purpose. Move on, there are plenty...
hi can you hellp me
  • #913
  • Mar 7, 2021 9:49am Mar 7, 2021 9:49am
Quoting BWilliam
There don't exist a supply and demand interbank forex auction market. There's only a interbank forex casino facilitated by a master algo. You can't find a solution if your understanding is wrong. You are looking for the solution in the wrong place. Again are you 100% certain that this is a interbank forex auction market that host supply and demand economics of buyers and sellers ? (This is the easy no pressure cop out herd position that we were taught in school.) If so, why so many traders(bank, institutional and retail) end up losers ? How...
Looks like this thread has devolved into a typical Forex Factory "This market is rigged to take your money!" whine session. Usually the culprit is the brokers, or randomness, or the bankers, who are running stop sweeps, or tricking you by using certain chart patterns, etc. So now the culprit is an all powerful, all knowing algo. This is the logical next step in the evolution of a Forex bogyman. OMG...LMAO.

This bolded question above caught my eye. I think we know why retail forex traders lose: they are abused by the algo, pure and simple. It can't be anything else. LMAO.

As for bank and institutional traders, I think you need to take a giant step back if you think they lose. Last year, Citibank alone, made $4,150,000,000 in their forex trading operations alone. That's 4.5 billions dollars, made by those loser bank traders at Citi. Somehow, they were able to figure it out (lol, even with that evil algo lurking at every trade entry). How do you explain that?

I accept the traditional narrative because it is the truth. It is real. It is reality. The hard question some posters on this thread must answer is, why can't you accept reality?
  • #914
  • Edited 11:16am Mar 7, 2021 10:01am | Edited 11:16am
Quoting GEfx
Last year, Citibank alone, made $4,150,000,000 in their forex trading operations alone. That's 4.5 billions dollars, made by those loser bank traders at Citi. Somehow, they were able to figure it out (lol, even with that evil algo lurking at every trade entry). How do you explain that? I accept the traditional narrative because it is the truth. It is real. It is reality. The hard question some posters on this thread must answer is, why can't you accept reality?
The questions to ask are,

How much of that 4.5billion dollars profit came from directional prop forex speculation?

What's the aggregate profit/loss numbers of the entire banking and institutional directional prop forex speculation sector?

Where profits were registered what's the source from which those profits came?

What's the yoy growth rate of funds allocation to directional prop forex speculation in the banking sector?

What's the attrition rate of traders in the directional prop forex trading department?

The answer to these kind of hard questions give the real picture.

Quoting GEfx
I accept the traditional narrative because it is the truth. It is real. It is reality. The hard question some posters on this thread must answer is, why can't you accept reality?
I have explained more than once in my earlier post why traders have to accept this traditional narrative.

Quoting GEfx
The hard question some posters on this thread must answer is, why can't you accept reality?
You should direct your question at moodybot, TimeTells, ryuryu and the other 74members(58%) who voted for algo in the poll.
Know what you trade
  • #915
  • Mar 7, 2021 10:29am Mar 7, 2021 10:29am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Looks like this thread has devolved into a typical Forex Factory "This market is rigged to take your money!" whine session. Usually the culprit is the brokers, or randomness, or the bankers, who are running stop sweeps, or tricking you by using certain chart patterns, etc. So now the culprit is an all powerful, all knowing algo. This is the logical next step in the evolution of a Forex bogyman. OMG...LMAO. This bolded question above caught my eye. I think we know why retail forex traders lose: they are abused by the algo, pure and simple....

Hey...don't mess with Big Bad Algo !! Remember...99.02% (I think it was?) of all traders who tried to fight Big Bad Algo lost.
Didn't u read the trading manual?? Damn, no wonder my kids had nightmares last night

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  • #916
  • Mar 7, 2021 11:26am Mar 7, 2021 11:26am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The questions to ask are, How much of that 4.5billion dollars profit came from directional prop forex speculation? What's the aggregate profit/loss numbers of the entire banking and institutional directional prop forex speculation sector? Where profits were registered what's the source from which those profits came? What's the yoy growth rate of funds allocation to directional prop forex speculation in the banking sector? What's the attrition rate of traders in the directional prop forex trading department? The answer to these kind of hard...
Here's the point: Citibank made $4.15 billion last year in FX trading. On top of that figure, you must add what DB, BofA, etc made in their FX trading. These big banks all were able to make huge profits on FX trading, and none seemed to be impacted by this made up, single algo. Feel free to do a deep dive in their 10Ks for more details. They make money doing lots and lots of transactions every day, which forms all the candles on all the charts you are watching. This algo doesn't exist. The answers to your hard questions do not form that basis of proof of the existence of the algo, or anything related to success in trading. Bankers form charts as they perform their banking duties. That is more than just the traditional narrative. It is objective truth and reality. Let's see if we can sway the rest of this group back to reality.
  • #917
  • Mar 7, 2021 11:29am Mar 7, 2021 11:29am
Trying to understand the discussions on this thread, more importantly the goal. Real or Algo? It seems everyone is just dangling carrots on how to read the "algos". Yes algos do exist and understanding them means 90% win rate but who has achieved this?
Read in between the price!!!
  • #918
  • Mar 7, 2021 11:40am Mar 7, 2021 11:40am
Quoting calebfx
Trying to understand the discussions on this thread, more importantly the goal. Real or Algo? It seems everyone is just dangling carrots on how to read the "algos". Yes algos do exist and understanding them means 90% win rate but who has achieved this?
There's a difference in saying algo exist and understanding them. I would much prefer to take back all my writings about understanding them. It put me in an unnecessary bad position in this discussion due to the implications thereof. So please ignore the understanding part that has no relevance to whether it's real or algo.

Let's move on from here. If its true about this algo, then can traditional technical analysis be useful in this single algo facilitated market? This is the discussion this thread should be brave enough to explore. It has serious implications to us individually as traders.
Know what you trade
  • #919
  • Mar 7, 2021 12:56pm Mar 7, 2021 12:56pm
Quoting calebfx
Trying to understand the discussions on this thread, more importantly the goal. Real or Algo? It seems everyone is just dangling carrots on how to read the "algos". Yes algos do exist and understanding them means 90% win rate but who has achieved this?
In part, I agree with your statement. Banks use lots and lots of algos in their FX trading. Their use augments the bank's strategy and operational procedures, and in most ways, automate their trading processes. These processes, now automated, are the same processes that human traders performed, and adhere to the banks operational rules and procedures, as they manage the banks FX book. Kind of a circular logic flow, right? If you understand the processes and procedures at the bank, you understand what the algos are doing. As I have stated many times in the past, this is one of the objective truths in the Forex (the patterns you see on forex charts is the picture of these processes being implemented each and every day/hour/minute). This is how market structure is created. So, yes I agree with your statement that if you understand the banks use of algos, you are 90% on target in your trading. And to BWilliams point, in this environment, TA is useful and meaningful, it you understand how TA and bank operations fit together. That is the narrative.

Edit: At this point, I have nothing more to add to this discussion. If the direction is to ponder the application of TA in the make believe world a THE ALGO, then I'm out. Good trading and I'll check back from my position in the real world to see how you guys are progressing.
  • #920
  • Mar 7, 2021 1:02pm Mar 7, 2021 1:02pm
Quoting Rmg
Deleted my posts, wasted my time twice in this unwelcoming discussions.
The thread was opened for a general discussion on the possibility of a one source Algo that we see displayed on our charts.
Everyone here has a point of view.
Some will become animated or heated.
I see the same moves played out on a day to day basis, perhaps its the Market Maker, maybe just an Algo, its thought provoking as to which.

You are most welcome to post.
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