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Real or Algo

  • #881
  • Mar 5, 2021 8:59pm Mar 5, 2021 8:59pm
This is the completed GU market for the week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1.png Size: 24 KB
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  • #882
  • Mar 5, 2021 9:08pm Mar 5, 2021 9:08pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
Would be very interested to hear the algo levels on Spx and WTI today
I did not ignore your request.
How can I ignore a sceptic's request ?
I read your post in bed took a look at mt4 phone apps, then figured hard how to respond to your post given what I saw ???
I decided then that it's best not to make a reply.
BUT I will make a post at the end of the trading day, make a bit of comment.
I went back to sleep after that.
You take a look at the pics then make your own conclusions.

The algo level for SPX is seen late in the day.

For Oil, there's no relevant algo level for Friday. I would have written as "just press the damn buy button ANYTIME you wish."

Since it's ridiculous to make such a comment for Oil and SPX was another ridiculous algo level, you decide if my decision to let the market show you was the right one.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: xti.png Size: 14 KB
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  • #883
  • Mar 5, 2021 9:14pm Mar 5, 2021 9:14pm
Quoting BWilliam
This is the completed GU market for the week. {image}

Looks good to me BW.


At the tops, and

On the way down also.

Traders could get in for "some action" all along the way

(my advice, don't stay IN for too long, grab some TP and then enter again if you wish later, at pullbacks maybe, but each to their own)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #884
  • Edited 6:36pm Mar 6, 2021 5:45pm | Edited 6:36pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
Would be very interested to hear the algo levels on Spx and WTI today

Hi DM,

Personally I have no idea what any pre-algo levels ever are.


But having a quick look at those charts this morning (and I do not trade Energies or Indicies)

I see they do respect the same Algo Targets (IF there is an Algo, that is )



.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US500H1 is it an algo lol.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XTIUSDWeekly is it an algo lol.png Size: 29 KB
  • #885
  • Mar 6, 2021 6:47pm Mar 6, 2021 6:47pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hi DM, I have no idea what any pre-algo levels ever are. But having a quick look at those charts this morning (and I do not trade Energies or Indicies) I see they do respect the same Algo Targets (IF there is an Algo, that is ) . {image} {image}
First off, I don't know if there's a single master algo moving price. I borrowed this narrative from George. However, I don't buy into his psychology manipulation and stoploss hunting hypothesis. I simply call it illusion since I can't explain for it. So in summation it's single master algo painting illusion on our chart.

I call it an illusion because it does not follow any known laws, principles or theories. It's what the academics call random walk and levy flight. Essentially this makes it random and unpredictable. That's why so many members have written that the market is unpredictable.

There's clear contradiction in this declaration of unpredictability which is correct and logical. Yet at the same time traders try to use technical analysis to predict the future market. When we use TA to tell us to execute a buy order, it's by extension of logic that we predict that future price will rise vv. So why declare with firm conviction that no one knows the future price, and then use TA to analyse the market for prediction of the future?

To me, unless members see through this clear contradiction there's no progress when we're stuck on this contradiction. Random or predictable? No point stuck in double talk, use either or interpretation to suit the occasion.

To me, it makes all sense and logic as a trader, to assume that future market is somewhat predictable. It's not negotiable. If the trader believe with conviction that the market is unpredictable it makes no sense to waste time with this trading business. Just quit. What's worse is to deny and hide this contradictory double talk especially to ourself. Imo.
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  • #886
  • Mar 6, 2021 7:11pm Mar 6, 2021 7:11pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hi DM, Personally I have no idea what any pre-algo levels ever are. But having a quick look at those charts this morning (and I do not trade Energies or Indicies) I see they do respect the same Algo Targets (IF there is an Algo, that is ) . {image} {image}
Hi TimeTells, I have not made a single comment about George target idea you present on your charts. I felt it would be disrespectful.

Today, with this post I break the rule. Imho, George targets is no different to support and resistance or supply and demand technical analysis, it simply carry a different label, a new jargon. The difference is the emphasis of stoploss hunting narrative and from George psychology manipulation of downtown and uptown business. Practitioners of such techniques use the almost similar trademark lingo.
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  • #887
  • Mar 6, 2021 8:36pm Mar 6, 2021 8:36pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Hi TimeTells, I have not made a single comment about George target idea you present on your charts.
I felt it would be disrespectful.
Today, with this post I break the rule.


Hahaa, seems the old BW is back, Hi.

(no not the previous BW , the current one from a month or so back .)


So here goes.

I tried. And I tried, BW.

To make sense of YOUR Supply & Demand, and Support & Resistance concept.


But in the end I couldn’t be convinced, of anything written on those topics,

Because I asked myself … just WHO it was …

that was doing the buying, and who was doing the selling etc.


Didn’t work for me, that’s all.

While Targets.

Yep. Works for me fine. So no need to break your rules and be disrespectful.

You just don;t see the market the same way.

Seems like an algo to me.
  • #888
  • Mar 6, 2021 8:39pm Mar 6, 2021 8:39pm
Because I do like repetition. Especially when repitition ‘repeats’ (wink).

What you, BW, think of as a stop hunt, is but one aspect of the algo.


The algo imo is ‘heading’ somewhere.

It’s arrival at its TARGET is what then imo might trigger new traders.

So price may reverse (and often immediately, RickM has described this best with his volume activity).

Or it may move on further in the 'same' direction - to the ‘next’ target.


I watch what happens as price moves ‘towards’ Targets.

And what happens ‘AT’ targets.

Then I trade. No predictions.


(edit: I am gearing up now to watch the Adesanya and Blachowicz card - all the best BW)
  • #889
  • Edited 9:37pm Mar 6, 2021 8:57pm | Edited 9:37pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hahaa, seems the old BW is back, Hi. (no not the previous BW , the current one from a month or so back .) So here goes. I tried. And I tried, BW. To make sense of YOUR Supply & Demand, and Support & Resistance concept. But in the end I couldn’t be convinced, of anything written on those topics, Because I asked myself … just WHO it was … that was doing the buying, and who was doing the selling etc. Didn’t work for me, that’s all. While Targets. Yep. Works for me fine. So no need to break your rules and be disrespectful. You...
After reading your description of how you look at the market with George targets I understand what goes on in your mind. You see targets as price destination. So price move from one destination to the next. You follow price and wait for "momentum" signature to convince you that price is headed for whatever next destination. This confluence lead you to execute trades. You analyse what happens at pre-selected price destinations and not anywhere else on the chart. If I understand you correctly.

Imv this is what support and resistance, supply and demand, pivot, fibs, channels, fork, bands and every other technicians do. They all do the same thing.

I don't subscribe to any of those TA. I don't believe any of them offer an edge. ALL of those TA are NOT objectively quantified enough. The discretionary element is so huge that the interpretation and application differs from one trader to another. And differ from one trade to the next. That's the problem for me.
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  • #890
  • Mar 6, 2021 9:07pm Mar 6, 2021 9:07pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
After reading your description of how you look at the market with George targets I understand what goes on in your mind. You see targets as price destination. So price move from one destination to the next. You follow price and wait for "momentum" signature to convince you that price is headed for whatever next destination. This confluence lead you to execute trades. You analyse what happens at pre-selected price destinations and not anywhere else on the chart. If I understand you correctly.



except for

You analyse what happens at pre-selected price destinations and not anywhere else on the chart.

I analyse along the way towards Targets (then on lower TFs wait for directional confirmation around those points).

I usually close my trades "before" they reach BIG targets, but can be at "smaller" & lower TF targets)

The charts I post above show the algo's intention to me.

I was surprised the algo (if we call it that, george called it the MM) actually does the 'same thing' on indices & energies.

Gotta be an algo to me. But let's not get too deep into that as a narrative.

That markets repeat is good enough for me.

cheers
  • #891
  • Mar 6, 2021 9:09pm Mar 6, 2021 9:09pm
The Algo serves one purpose, to induce participants to part with their cash. And that’s it. Precisely programmed peaks and troughs to induce trading.
It’s just a never ending horse race, only in this instance the bookies/market maker have won before price/horse/trader leaves the womb.
Take cover!!
  • #892
  • Mar 6, 2021 9:13pm Mar 6, 2021 9:13pm
Hi BW,

when I take the time to answer your post. I do from what I read.

Then I post.

It is disconcerting to come back and find you have added to your previous post, which may take my post out of context

Please just post a new post, and I will adress that when I can.

So

Plenty of traders use TA (I use it simplistically).

I have mentioned before I WATCH fibs. BUT not to trade them. But to see what other traders do AROUND them.

Do you see the difference?

So maybe I do my TA on the other traders' TA lol (if you know what I mean).


ps i could take the algo down a deeper rabbit hole if you like, but i am reluctant to do so.


(Welles Wilder RSI ATR etc purchased something from Jim Sloman over 40 years ago, that DID try to predict the market (the algo, the mm, the 'collective' of all traders whatever - and reckons that had cracked the code - I read it and couldn't make head nor tail of it myself - but that WAS 4 years ago when I fIrst stepped in to FX)

See ya in about 3 hours pal (after the UFC)
  • #893
  • Mar 6, 2021 9:18pm Mar 6, 2021 9:18pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hi BW, when I take the time to answer your post. I do from what I read. Then I post. It is disconcerting to come back and find you have added to your previous post, which may take my post out of context Please just post a new post, and I will adress that when I can. So Plenty of traders use TA (I use it simplistically). I have mentioned before I WATCH fibs. BUT not to trade them. But to see what other traders do AROUND them. Do you see the difference? So maybe I do my TA on the other traders' TA lol (if you know what I mean). ps i...
Put your bet on Blachowicz. Just a guess.
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  • #894
  • Mar 6, 2021 9:24pm Mar 6, 2021 9:24pm
Quoting moodybot
The Algo serves one purpose, to induce participants to part with their cash. And that’s it.



cheers andy

imo it paints an illusion to get participants to trade, yes

(some will win, many will not)
  • #895
  • Mar 6, 2021 9:28pm Mar 6, 2021 9:28pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Put your bet on Blachowicz. Just a guess.

I never bet on mixed martial arts

Then I would be watching for one result and MISS the beauty of the whole confrontation.

For example, the New Zealander on the undercard Kai Kara-France was dominated for 4.50 min of the first round by a Brazilian Jui Jitsu master who had Kai tied up for the whole of round one.

In the last 5 secs before the round ended Kai worked free, landed two punches and won by TKO.

(A bit like a huge spike taking out traders in an unexpected move just after NY open )


So the main fight with Adesanya stepping up a division from Middleweight to take on the heavier and natural Light-Heavy Champ for his Title has "watch me" all over it.

cheers again
  • #896
  • Mar 6, 2021 9:31pm Mar 6, 2021 9:31pm
Quoting TimeTells
I never bet on mixed martial arts Then I would be watching for one result and MISS the beauty of the whole confrontation. For example, the New Zealander on the undercard Kai Kara-France was dominated for 4.50 min of the first round by a Brazilian Jui Jitsu master who had Kai tied up for the whole of round one. In the last 5 secs before the round ended Kai worked free, landed two punches and won by TKO. (A bit like a huge spike taking out traders in an unexpected move just after NY open )...
I recommend you watch the replay of Bob Baffert's Life is Good run in the San Felipe stakes. Potential triple crown contender.
Know what you trade
  • #897
  • Mar 6, 2021 9:40pm Mar 6, 2021 9:40pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} cheers andy imo it paints an illusion to get participants to trade, yes (some will win, many will not)
Hi Pete

Exactly.

It’s a computer generated signal which we humans have to interpret as price and time on a chart.

Price meanders deliberately in an attempt to show that
its a natural market or random walk when in reality, it’s computer generated.
Its sole purpose is to induce trading!
  • #898
  • Mar 6, 2021 9:45pm Mar 6, 2021 9:45pm
Quoting moodybot
Its sole purpose is to induce trading!
Imv this is wrong. Trading is for kids.

It's sole purpose is to pose a casino style brain teaser to attract the best brains whales to compete in a gigantic trillion dollar non-stop infinite gamble. Most whales have no brains although they tend to believe otherwise.
Know what you trade
  • #899
  • Mar 6, 2021 10:47pm Mar 6, 2021 10:47pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Imv this is wrong. Trading is for kids. It's sole purpose is to pose a casino style brain teaser to attract the best brains whales to compete in a gigantic trillion dollar non-stop infinite gamble. Most whales have no brains although they tend to believe otherwise.
Trading is the standard term used. Casino works. Perhaps Gambling ..And for most, it should be called losing.. but that wouldn’t be a great selling point....!
  • #900
  • Mar 7, 2021 1:19am Mar 7, 2021 1:19am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Put your bet on Blachowicz. Just a guess.

Good call on the UFC BW. The take downs sealed it. On their feet it was still pretty close.



Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
I recommend you watch the replay of Bob Baffert's Life is Good run in the San Felipe stakes. Potential triple crown contender.
I had a look on You Tube and caught the whole race with Bob Baffert's Life is Good run in the San Felipe Stks.
What a well rated ride, leading barrier to post and looks the goods (how Baffert continaully turns up with one is a mystery, but he does).
Started to get out a bit down the running (ie in the straight for us Aussies lol) but had done enough work to be allowed to weaken a bit on the near front.
I'll follow the Triple now, to watch.
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