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  • Post #721
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  • Feb 23, 5:54pm (24 hr ago) Feb 23, 5:54pm (24 hr ago)
Quoting RickM
{quote} We still have a problem To have an trading edge of any sort within a market - we need plentiful supply of Passive limit orders HOWEVER WE DON"T HAVE PLENTIFUL SUPPLY OF PASSIVE LIMIT ORDERS IN FRONT OF PRICE - Liquidity is therefore always lagging in front of current price where major players intend it to go, so that's one edge right there. As for the Algo, at what price is it willing to exhaust in achieving its target, maybe 300 million dollars in spend funds to achieve its crazy objective?. So the biggest question needs to be asked now....

Don’t react when it tickles you... rule 1.
  • Post #722
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  • Edited Feb 23, 6:25pm Feb 23, 6:00pm (24 hr ago) | Edited Feb 23, 6:25pm
Quoting moodybot
That’s exactly it Pete. The first stage, I think, is to induce traders to ‘assume’ that price is heading off in a particular direction. Different traders different ideas. Some would call this consolidation... but all the SM want is an accumulation of orders, or let’s cut to the chase, stops, direction doesn’t matter. Eventually a threshold will be hit, the direction the Algo will take will be attracted to the heaviest side of stops. SM will fast track a move out of consolidation, eventually retracing back into or around starting point of...
I hate to be a party pooper but George's target idea is incorrect. Not only is it incorrect this proposition has led so many in search of the solution to his puzzle to be indoctrinated to see the algo action the wrong way.

For detox, remove targets from your mind. Now look at the chart of your favourite trading pair again. Can you tell what the algo is up to from Aussie Open to NY close yesterday? Start with yesterday. If you can't tell what happened 24hours ago, forget about what the algo will do today.

The big mistake everyone make is to try explain for everything that happened yesterday. That's not possible which ends up in overarched bs analysis. What you want to get at is to know where alpha sit on that yesterday's chart. That's all the trader has to know. Stop making the mistake of trying to figure out WHY it happen. Why does not give the trader any advantage. Looking back at any pair can you tell where alpha sits on yesterday's chart?

In this post I pointed out 2 common mistakes EVERY TRADER make.

1. Analyse and explain for everything that happen on the chart,
2. Explain WHY such and such thing happened on the chart.

The entire FF forum and all forums is laden with both this mistakes.

Avoid both mistakes. It's very hard thing to do because that's how ALL traders mind has been indoctrinated to think this way.

The trader does not need to know everything. The trader does not need to know WHY. Both of them will not contribute towards alpha.
  • Post #723
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 23, 7:50pm Feb 23, 6:44pm (23 hr ago) | Edited Feb 23, 7:50pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
I hate to be a party pooper but George's target idea is incorrect.
Not only is it incorrect this proposition has led so many in search of the solution to his puzzle to be indoctrinated to see the algo action the wrong way.

Hi BW,

These are good conversations you bring, imo.

Better than pop psychology attempts on some other threads.

So I can hear what you are saying, or trying to say, and I can agree with you up to a point.



But where there will be a disparity of ideas (well with myself, that is) is when you seem to suggest there can only be one way of understanding the market that will work for trading.

If you are not saying this then I apologise for misunderstanding.


But you again brought George into a conversation.

Not to validate your own ideas, but denigrate another’s ideas.


If you were to maybe say that your own way is more precise than other ways, then I can be in some agreement.

(Even without having seeing or knowing your particular methodology, but from your own firm conviction in what you say)
  • Post #724
  • Quote
  • Feb 23, 6:51pm (23 hr ago) Feb 23, 6:51pm (23 hr ago)
You have asked a question about the yesterday’s day open to NY close to see if any trader can ‘see’ what the algo did that day, and how it might be traded.

Let me suggest we look at USDCAD

(as that was a pair I did trade & past my usual bedtime as I hadn’t achieved my pip target for the day, as many pairs were in congestion).


I was able to utilise george’s targets as such as my PRIME concept and found I was able, again, to conduct my trading around them.


I am not trying to prove this way is even what traders should be assessing themselves.

Rather that there is more than one way to skin a cat in forex.


The targets first, then my simple trade later

If I had your grit & determination at a younger age than I am now, I may well have gone down the maths path that you have found success with.



.
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  • Post #725
  • Quote
  • Feb 23, 7:07pm (23 hr ago) Feb 23, 7:07pm (23 hr ago)
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi BW, These are good conversations you bring, imo. Better than some pop psychology attempts on a few threads. So I can hear what you are saying, or trying to say, and I can agree with you up to a point. But where there will be a disparity of ideas (well with myself, that is) is when you seem to suggest there can only be one way of understanding the market that will work for trading. If you are not saying this then I apologise for misunderstanding. But you again brought George into a conversation. Not to validate your own ideas, but denigrate...
Let me explain why I wrote what I wrote in that post. Remember to remove me the writer, from your mind. Just read the content in all my posts.

There is a single algo if you believe that. There's no 2 algo. Only ONE. This algo is not connected to how any trader wish to trade the market. Both are seperate things and not connected at all.

Therefore since there's only ONE algo it means there's only ONE way this algo paint our chart.

Can we explain for WHY this algo paint our chart the way it does? Maybe, but not necessary. To explain for WHY this algo paint our chart the way it did, you have to delve into the instructional math that's coded in the algo. Are you still thinking algo or revert back to the traditional way of thinking? You can't have it both ways. Like I wrote in my last para of the first post, hybrid don't make sense.

Why I brought up George's idea about targets?

When anyone make such a proposition it becomes the central focus of attention. Targets become embedded in our minds as the key focus. This target idea is easily acceptable because it bears a lot of semblance to support resistance and supply demand.

Examine this target idea in detail what it means. What it's saying is there's this target that's written in the algo code. If this is true then such an idea have solved the mystery behind the algo, it won't be an illusion anymore. We should be able to tell what happened 24hours ago. Does it? No it doesn't, its not that simple else we won't call it an illusion.

The purpose to highlight this target idea is not to denigrate it thereby validate my "idea". This notion of ideas is moving in the wrong direction. This set the discussion onto the useless argument trail all the time. Remember there's only ONE algo that has no connection to anyone's idea. This algo does not know we exist. That's how it should be seen.
  • Post #726
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  • Feb 23, 7:49pm (22 hr ago) Feb 23, 7:49pm (22 hr ago)
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
The purpose to highlight this target idea is not to denigrate it thereby validate my "idea". This notion of ideas is moving in the wrong direction. This set the discussion onto the useless argument trail all the time. Remember there's only ONE algo that has no connection to anyone's idea. This algo does not know we exist. That's how it should be seen.

Cheers BW, you have explained this well for me.

These are all good conversations, in my eyes, and hopefully for other Forex’ers as well, as we all wind our way down the murky paths - to the way home.

And George was very much the one algo theory himself.


I utilise targets as my trade plan overview consideration.

They are not s/d or s/r, in my eyes, but each trader will hold their own narrative as we have discussed before.


I should say in regards to Targets I have shown.

They are NOT, of themselves, my reason to enter any trade. NO.


There are many considerations, quite a few anyway, before eventually I see a trade option that is close & upcoming in the not too distant future.

Even then I will wait for a 2nd or 3rd confirmation as to direction.

Trade well, trade safe
all the best
  • Post #727
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  • Feb 23, 8:00pm (22 hr ago) Feb 23, 8:00pm (22 hr ago)
Quoting TimeTells
You have asked a question about the yesterday’s day open to NY close to see if any trader can ‘see’ what the algo did that day, and how it might be traded. Let me suggest we look at USDCAD (as that was a pair I did trade & past my usual bedtime as I hadn’t achieved my pip target for the day, as many pairs were in congestion). I was able to utilise george’s targets as such as my PRIME concept and found I was able, again, to conduct my trading around them. I am not trying to prove this way is even what traders should be assessing themselves....
About UCAD, there's a main intraday algo level at 1.2605. The market is either trading above or below it. During the Powell testimony the market briefly spiked above the major algo level at 1.2625. Market was not expected to trade above that level yesterday. And more likely to trade below the 1.2605 level. Yesterday's market traded 60+% below this level.

The difference between algo level and targets or SR or SD is it reflects the "fair" valuation of the asset. Excursions at targets is the deviation from this value.

This means that if the trader focus on targets, SR or SD(the traditional technical analysis mindset) he does not have algo action or levels in his mind.
  • Post #728
  • Quote
  • Feb 23, 9:03pm (21 hr ago) Feb 23, 9:03pm (21 hr ago)
Quoting TimeTells
If you were to maybe say that your own way is more precise than other ways, then I can be in some agreement. (Even without having seeing or knowing your particular methodology, but from your own firm conviction in what you say)
Since you brought up this word "precise" it's time to address the meaning of its usage.

The simple question to delibrate on is whether, let's say the target is 1.2630, there is this necessity to be precise right down to the pip or event point?

We have seen this precise idea mentioned in many threads, not just George.

Are there any extra benefits for being so precise to the pip?
Does such precision add credence to the main idea?
Does this suggested level of precision contribute towards the net alpha that we seek?
Is there a downside to bear this burden of precision?

This proposed "precise" idea has not been examined in detail to understand the role it plays. There's very little discussion on this subject, instead this forum has accepted the implied "values" without close examination. Imv this is the 3rd common mistake.
  • Post #729
  • Quote
  • Feb 23, 9:10pm (21 hr ago) Feb 23, 9:10pm (21 hr ago)
The whole topic of Algo (and targets) is a fascination to me.

In intraday trading I have to be more nimble if you like (I have grabbed a little already).


I look at the daily open for any big structure targets



But I can trade towards targets if the “immediate” price activity suggests a probability that might eventuate.

This is not maths based. Which would itself give its own probabilities of occurance.


[It’s not that I don’t trust the market to do what probability suggests 80/20 rule (but I have been burned before lol so am VERY wary of how long I stay active in one trade).]


It all seems algo run to me on the big picture.


.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • Post #730
  • Quote
  • Feb 23, 9:11pm (21 hr ago) Feb 23, 9:11pm (21 hr ago)
But what the algo does in & around the sessions seems like a ‘building’ of lots both longs & shorts until it suits the algo to release in its desired direction.

(See monthly AUDJPY chart below for the gap up and drop almost 2 years ago, which is now imminent)
(This pair sat for the past 2 full days in a tight range).
(I imagine there would be institutional stops sitting at or above these “impossible” two plus year old targets)
(Will they be taken out today, or later, or NEVER, who knows)


The AUDJPY now sits 20 pips from the major target of 2½ years ago, but price has already done its 60 pip ADR today - is that the end)

Let’s see (watch I mean, be careful traders there are no guarantees) what happens in the remainder of triple swap Wednesday and who the algo has currently caught in relation to where some massive institutional stops may lay.


Who is running the show, the institutional houses fighting to save their stops (IF they even exist, lol), or the ‘unlimited’ algo that can do whatever it wants as it IS the ultimate liquidity.

I’m finished with this pair today but will observe now, and is my recommendation just watch.


.
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  • Post #731
  • Quote
  • Feb 23, 9:17pm (21 hr ago) Feb 23, 9:17pm (21 hr ago)
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Are there any extra benefits for being so precise to the pip? Does such precision add credence to the main idea? Does this suggested level of precision contribute towards the net alpha that we seek? Is there a downside to bear this burden of precision? This proposed "precise" idea has not been examined in detail to understand the role it plays. There's very little discussion on this subject, instead this forum has accepted the implied "values" without close examination. Imv this is the 3rd mistake.

I will look forward to this discussion BW.
  • Post #732
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 24, 5:04am Feb 23, 9:28pm (21 hr ago) | Edited Feb 24, 5:04am
Quoting TimeTells
But what the algo does in & around the sessions seems like a ‘building’ of lots both longs & shorts until it suits the algo to release in its desired direction. (See monthly AUDJPY chart below for the gap up and drop almost 2 years ago, which is now imminent) (This pair sat for the past 2 full days in a tight range). (I imagine there would be institutional stops sitting at or above these “impossible” two plus year old targets) (Will they be taken out today, or later, or NEVER, who knows) The AUDJPY now sits 20 pips from the major target of 2½ years...
AUDJPY is a good case study.

There's a huge move last Friday, 4 days ago. Early Aussie session week open 3days back there's a brief spike going into Tokyo open. Then nothing significant happened between then and this morning, again Tokyo open. That's the algo in action. With that huge move the Algo took 3 and half days to "recalibrate" before it made the next move this morning.

Talking about patience and traders psychology, is there any trader out there who has this "patience" to wait 3 and half days for the next market move?

This algo illusion has nothing to do with traders "patience". Citing "patience" or traders psychology is completely disconnected to what the algo paint on our chart that does not know about our existence. 4th common mistake.

Edit - First time I share the way I view the forex market from this single algo perspective. Ofc we all have our own different povs.
  • Post #733
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  • Feb 23, 11:26pm (19 hr ago) Feb 23, 11:26pm (19 hr ago)
Honest member wrote honest observation and opinion.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13424307

Buy low, sell high is the biggest bs spread by this trading industry. The inverse idea is the high and low are unlimited proposed by the math boyz. Two opposite extremes that dominate every traders mind with fear and greed. That's why almost every trader is a fade the extreme trader.
  • Post #734
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Feb 24, 11:26am (7 hr ago) Feb 24, 11:26am (7 hr ago)
Quoting TimeTells
I will look forward to this discussion BW.
This is my idea of precision that's encapsulated in this trade which might be different from other traders. The use of bot is to keep a distance from the fear and greed emotions. And there's no last minute discretionary decision making.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post13425572
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