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EUR/USD Will smash thru stops 1.2150 down to 1.2125 soon.
Quoting peterfahey
{quote} Good Morning, I am enjoying reading your comments as they completely agree with my analysis, what is your time frame for trading as in how long do you intend to hold them for? I personally enter at traditional scalp with a swing trading target and scale out aggressively and leave very small portions on for the swing target.
Hi, thanks

I do scalping and try to do scalp entries with swing targets sometimes if I have a strong conviction. So i'm mainly 5m charts for entries but top down from monthly, weekly, daily, 4h etc for the overall picture. TBH, I don't think i've held a trade longer than about 24/48 hours usually i'm in and out within the hour, i'm happy to ride up and down regardless of the trend depending where we are in the cycle

At the moment I think Eur is just continuing its long term monthly bullish trend after its retracement, I like the idea of buying Euro around the pivot or at the edge of the 1h symmetrical triangle. Watching DXY retest a 4h TL soon too. After that I think DXY will be all bear

Ideally i want a 10pip SL entry for this and hold it for potentially hundreds of pips... with that said I always tend to cash in early as I can't handle going like 80+ pips in the green then reversing and taking me out. I like to enter around confluences of S/R be it trendlines, pivots, supply/demand etc

Obviously I would have loved to get in on Monday but for whatever reason I was lacking focus at the time and I don't like huge stop losses

NOTE i've only been trading seriously since November last year so take what I say with a huge grain of salt
Quoting Kyuu
I covered my short at 1.2176, this is looking to suspicious for my short
Worst decision again lmao. I covered right before the drop
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Hi, thanks I do scalping and try to do scalp entries with swing targets sometimes if I have a strong conviction. So i'm mainly 5m charts for entries but top down from monthly, weekly, daily, 4h etc for the overall picture At the moment I think Eur is just continuing its long term monthly bullish trend after its retracement, I like the idea of buying Euro around the pivot or at the edge of the 1h symmetrical triangle. Watching DXY retest a 4h TL soon too. Ideally i want a 10pip SL entry for this and hold it for potentially hundreds of pips......
We sound like we have similar models I always cash out far to early but I hate the idea of what I hared described somewhere as a pop corn trade. I am hoping we keep going down until the NY open then get a full reversal time will tell
I am hoping to hit 1.22 today but only after the Powell's speech.
My observation may be wrong but intent correct. Stay calm!
Quoting peterfahey
{quote} We sound like we have similar models I always cash out far to early but I hate the idea of what I hared described somewhere as a pop corn trade. I am hoping we keep going down until the NY open then get a full reversal time will tell
It is a psychology thing, I think the tendency to get attached to trades if they go heavily in profit, then clearly something changes and they reverse but seem unable to close it, or even let it go into a loss. Short term just suits me a lot better. Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas talks about this phenomenon. Dearly trying to hold trades longer though- I had an entry right at the bottom in the 1.19's. Posted it at the time explaining why I think it's the bottom of the market. Then closed it for 20/30 pips or something. It's a confidence thing, I haven't been doing this long enough to have the courage of my convictions. It wasn't long ago I had a commodity trade go into profit for an account doubling sum of money then just sat and watched as it retraced to my entry, powerless to close it and TP
a new high is set in thin liquidity before big asian markets open
then before london opens stops are taken out and new shorts for european market makers

i often look when new highs or lows are set, the ones during night time make me suspicious especially the early ones.

(dont look at the trades taken, it is cents testing experts)
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Decided to long from 1.21465 which is the 0.382 retrace of the last swing high low, also retesting resistance on dxy. I'll put my stop to BE soon as I think there's a good chance of getting down to 1.2130ish, but there's a good chance of a bounce at the round number so at least I can participate in case it flies without me. Otherwise I'll take breakeven and buy lower. TP open for now, initial stop 10 pips EDIT- stop to BE already

Very aware of the daily/weekly supply zones overhead but I think todays the day to start taking them out

EDIT: Out BE. Pure impatience I kinda knew. Looking at the higher TFs again, totally prepared to get stopped BE: 1.2126 would be the ideal long as two TLs intersect on the 4h TF (upper edge of triangle, and 4h ascending TL)

EDIT- back in slightly lower, banking on that 0.382 retrace
Also we just rebounded from the suppport line of a megaphone on M30
1.21444 is a support my opinion it will break
In 4 hours Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies:

He could say "US can finance debt as long as dollar is world reserve currency" just as Kaplan said yesterday.


Or he could say „FED closely monitoring the long-end of the curve“ just as Lagarde said yesterday.
For me, its time to wait and possibly resume trading after 11:00AM EST
Live Account Return This Week: 6.6%
I think, short possible come from 1.2197 - 1.2220
Learn and Learning
Weekly R1 pull back as published before.

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Quoting corongumet
{quote} EDITED: buy limit @1.21297 SL 20 Pips (4 digit) TP 1.21689 Sell limit @1.21973 SL 50 pips (4 digits) TP not set Im done for this week. (Until i get signal to another short) Disc on.
Edited: Sell limit @1.21973 SL 50 pips (4 digits) TP 1.16022 (longterm)
Disc on.
Learn and Learning
Finally moving a bit! IF I somehow caught the swing low and the bullish bias is correct I'll hold til 1.2250, 10.5 x R. Big Ifs.. Hoping for a decent move on this leg.

EDIT- breakeven again, waiting for 1.2127, trendline intersection 0.618 retrace
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https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post13422936
Quoting procrude
For me, its time to wait and possibly resume trading after 11:00AM EST
It's better to wait and see.......
So we had this inverse H&S pattern, featured on various news websites. On 4H chart one can see the false break of the neckline and 4HR bearish outside bar. Seems like longs are trapped and eurusd might go lower.
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