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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #11,921
  • Feb 19, 2021 6:03am Feb 19, 2021 6:03am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDJPY 106 short trade. Levels to watch. {image}
USDJPY 106 short trade update. Levels to watch.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily 219.png Size: 37 KB
  • #11,922
  • Feb 19, 2021 6:14am Feb 19, 2021 6:14am
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD {image}
NZDUSD 0.72 long trade. Levels to watch.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDDaily 219.png Size: 29 KB
  • #11,923
  • Feb 19, 2021 6:21am Feb 19, 2021 6:21am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDJPY 106 short trade update. Levels to watch. {image}
Waiting for this demand zone to be touched, so I can buy back USDJPY.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily.png Size: 67 KB
  • #11,924
  • Feb 19, 2021 6:25am Feb 19, 2021 6:25am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD 1.3850 long trade. The confluence of 0.5RN and Fib 61 worked well, just a little patience was needed. The target is 1.40 (ab=cd, FE 100). {image}
GBPUSD 1.3850 long trade reached its target @ 1.40 (ab=cd, FE 100).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4. 219png.png Size: 31 KB
  • #11,925
  • Feb 19, 2021 6:28am Feb 19, 2021 6:28am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD 1.3850 long trade reached its target @ 1.40 (ab=cd, FE 100). {image}
thats amazing !!!
"Exchange of hands"
  • #11,926
  • Feb 19, 2021 6:31am Feb 19, 2021 6:31am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} thats amazing !!!
This is just based on TA. People say TA doesn't work, but the truth is they do not study it well or they don't know how to apply it properly.
  • #11,927
  • Feb 19, 2021 6:40am Feb 19, 2021 6:40am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} This is just based on TA. People say TA doesn't work, but the truth is they do not study it well or they don't know how to apply it properly.
You are very right, but every one is not that good in Technical analysis (i just googled TA) hope it is the same thats how noob i am, but it is great to see you juicy trades, please take some time out as per your convenience with regards how to monitor so many pairs at once.

which time frames are best to apply fibs, as you see multiple fibs on charts.

i may be asking too much but i love your trades and you are the best trader i have seen so far, not buttering but an honest opinion.

because you trade:
reversals, continuations, breakouts of horizontal and trend lines, fib and round nos, waves and what not. Great !
"Exchange of hands"
  • #11,928
  • Feb 19, 2021 6:43am Feb 19, 2021 6:43am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPCHF 1.23 RN long trade. {image}
GBPCHF 1.23 long trade update. Levels to watch.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFWeekly 219.png Size: 34 KB
  • #11,929
  • Feb 19, 2021 7:49am Feb 19, 2021 7:49am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} You are very right, but every one is not that good in Technical analysis (i just googled TA) hope it is the same thats how noob i am, but it is great to see you juicy trades, please take some time out as per your convenience with regards how to monitor so many pairs at once. which time frames are best to apply fibs, as you see multiple fibs on charts. i may be asking too much but i love your trades and you are the best trader i have seen so far, not buttering but an honest opinion. because you trade: reversals, continuations, breakouts...
.........i agree bilal ...... we need a great teacher ..........
  • #11,930
  • Feb 19, 2021 9:27am Feb 19, 2021 9:27am
Quoting mrhb30jr
EJ m30 ..Long set up .. {image}
EJ ..M30
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM30BB.png Size: 56 KB
  • #11,931
  • Feb 19, 2021 9:42am Feb 19, 2021 9:42am
Gold, if S @ 1765/50 holds, this can turn into a very bullish pattern (a combination of flag/triangle and a possible double bottom).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 219.PNG Size: 96 KB
  • #11,932
  • Feb 19, 2021 9:44am Feb 19, 2021 9:44am
Quoting mrhb30jr
{quote} EJ ..M30 {image}
Nice trades mrhb30jr. It would be more helpful if you could post some of the trade ideas or analysis in advance.
  • #11,933
  • Feb 19, 2021 10:13am Feb 19, 2021 10:13am
Quoting shahab8b
Gold, if S @ 1765/50 holds, this can turn into a very bullish pattern (a combination of flag/triangle and a possible double bottom). {image}
AUDUSD, this is a chart example of what I call "candle on the level with divergence (CLD)" setup nested in a combo of flag/double bottom pattern. The gold chart shows a similar formation without a weekly divergence.

PS. I forgot to add RN 0.70 to that chart. That was another reason that level was significant.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU d 219.PNG Size: 167 KB
  • #11,934
  • Feb 19, 2021 11:37am Feb 19, 2021 11:37am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Nice trades mrhb30jr. It would be more helpful if you could post some of the trade ideas or analysis in advance.
Hi Shahab8b,....

Here is my point
1. Weekly TF 2 inside Bars and price has been break the high of mother bar
2. Price pullback to the previous BKO and confirm by double bottom M30 Time frame chart at that area, if the weekly candle close above this area we will see more higher the EJ
3. while the double bottom on M30 area and RSI M30 oversold level ..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM30AB.png Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYWeekly.png Size: 32 KB
  • #11,935
  • Feb 19, 2021 12:14pm Feb 19, 2021 12:14pm
If your broker allows you trading cryptos during the weekends, just to announce you ETH just made new high and broke the resistance....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eth.png Size: 35 KB
  • #11,936
  • Feb 19, 2021 12:55pm Feb 19, 2021 12:55pm
This thread comes recommended. Cheers, Mate.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #11,937
  • Feb 19, 2021 1:27pm Feb 19, 2021 1:27pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} You are very right, but every one is not that good in Technical analysis (i just googled TA) hope it is the same thats how noob i am, but it is great to see you juicy trades, please take some time out as per your convenience with regards how to monitor so many pairs at once. which time frames are best to apply fibs, as you see multiple fibs on charts. i may be asking too much but i love your trades and you are the best trader i have seen so far, not buttering but an honest opinion. because you trade: reversals, continuations, breakouts...
Thanks bilal1947.

To answer your question, the FX pairs move in harmony, you basically trade the USD trend. Of course, GBP and JPY do their own thing sometimes. But you can put the majors into four groups: 1) EU and UCHF, 2) AU, NU, and UCAD, 3) GU, and 4) UJ. So I only need to look at 4 charts. Most of the time they arrive at their setup levels at the same time. As for crosses, I only trade major confluence levels so they do not require intensive analysis.

Regarding Fibs, you can apply them to any time frames. I like H4 and D1. But I have posted examples that I used them on M1 and M5 charts for scalping.
  • #11,938
  • Feb 19, 2021 1:41pm Feb 19, 2021 1:41pm
GBPUSD short trade. I took this trade based on the triangle measurement. Considering the wave structure, I was suspecting that the wave from 1.3830 would end up around 1.40 ish. GU is still bullish. So we have to wait and see how this will play out next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM1 219.png Size: 41 KB
  • #11,939
  • Feb 19, 2021 6:55pm Feb 19, 2021 6:55pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks bilal1947. To answer your question, the FX pairs move in harmony, you basically trade the USD trend. Of course, GBP and JPY do their own thing sometimes. But you can put the majors into four groups: 1) EU and UCHF, 2) AU, NU, and UCAD, 3) GU, and 4) UJ. So I only need to look at 4 charts. Most of the time they arrive at their setup levels at the same time. As for crosses, I only trade major confluence levels so they do not require intensive analysis. Regarding Fibs, you can apply them to any time frames. I like H4 and D1. But I have...

thank you dear shahab for taking time to share your valuable inputs, i will practise to observe USD pairs in the same order.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #11,940
  • Feb 20, 2021 3:34am Feb 20, 2021 3:34am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDUSD, this is a chart example of what I call "candle on the level with divergence (CLD)" setup nested in a combo of flag/double bottom pattern. The gold chart shows a similar formation without a weekly divergence. PS. I forgot to add RN 0.70 to that chart. That was another reason that level was significant. {image}
Great example, Shahab. Thanks.

I have noticed that Gold practically never shows divergence on Daily or Weekly charts. It moves too quickly for that. It doesnīt stick around a swing top or bottom to give time for a divergence to form. I call it a Psychedelic pair.

On the other hand, H4 is another matter. Gold practically always paints a divergence in H4. There is a clear H4 divergence on the current Gold Chart. On top of that, we have broken out of a perfect 8 year monthly saucer formation and tested the top of it from the other side. It all adds up to a strong possibility of a bottom here and movement to new highs. How high? The depth of the saucer indicates a target of 2500 but I believe it will go much higher.

It makes sense fundamentally also:

1- USD is in a down cycle. The twin deficits and Fed and Fiscal expansive policies almost guarantee it will continue.
2- Inflation is clearly on the way back. Check out the US 10 Year bond rates.
3- Alternate investments like real estate, crypto and commodities are strongly higher, including Goldīs cousin, Silver.
4- The stock market has rocketed higher to ridiculous levels.

Gold has been the laggard here for no real reason. It could very well be the next star to brightly shine.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD,H4.jpg Size: 232 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD,Monthly.jpg Size: 67 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
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