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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #4,701
  • Feb 17, 2021 4:49am Feb 17, 2021 4:49am
Quoting vqs
{quote} Thank you very much Sir. Appreciate the answer, especially "Not Exact Science". I think it's really important for me to remember that.
My 2 cents on your chart
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  • #4,702
  • Feb 17, 2021 4:51am Feb 17, 2021 4:51am
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  • #4,703
  • Feb 17, 2021 4:56am Feb 17, 2021 4:56am
CHART FOLLOW UP

Notice the 2 Ascending Valid Trend Line :

the first of degree 1 (Envelope 32 blue)

the second of degree 3 (Envelope 256 brown)
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  • #4,704
  • Feb 17, 2021 5:12am Feb 17, 2021 5:12am
VTLs on Composite Charts

Let us now look at a composite chart that has been created from sine waves to allow us to get a better understanding of how VTLs are constructed and how the rules apply.

Figure 2.16 is :

a composite of a 40 day cycle, a 160 day cycle and a 500 day cycle. The 500 day represents underlying trend, the 160 day shows the intermediate swings and the 40 day represents the short term oscillation.

 The two peaks connected by the red line, VTL A are peaks of the 40 day cycle showing through on the composite. It is a 40 day valid downtrend line because it is based on this cycle’s peaks.

 The two peaks are consecutive and the trough of a longer cycle (in this case 160 day cycle or the 500 day cycle) does not fall in between them.

 The blue line, VTL B connects two consecutive troughs of the 40 day cycle showing through in the composite and is therefore a 40 day valid uptrend line.

 As was demonstrated in Figures 2.9-2.11, the VTLs here are essentially horizontal lines drawn on the 40 day cycle, which is being tilted downwards in the case of VTL A and then upwards in the case of VTL B, by the action of the other two cycles.

check what Chris Grafton writes in his book about VTL's, his theoretical chart and your chart
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  • #4,705
  • Feb 17, 2021 5:19am Feb 17, 2021 5:19am
Good Morning Sir, thank you for detailing everything. I shall do a deep dive into it and lets hope I can go far enough. Appreciate it 100.

Regards
VQ.
  • #4,706
  • Edited 6:47am Feb 17, 2021 6:36am | Edited 6:47am
Hi Sir, Whats a correct method, or what is it that you use to identify/group the cycles (Orange & Blue Lines), is there a definitive method to do so? If I were to do it 10 times over, I would have done it differently and thus not having the ability to have any consistency.

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Regards
VQ.
  • #4,707
  • Feb 17, 2021 6:48am Feb 17, 2021 6:48am
A possibility
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  • #4,708
  • Feb 17, 2021 6:52am Feb 17, 2021 6:52am
Quoting parisboy
A possibility {image}
Yes Sir,

what I'm trying to ask is how do you do it. I don't have the Cyclic Eyes like you say. Is there a method that you use or it's all subjected to what you see?

Regards
VQ.
  • #4,709
  • Feb 17, 2021 7:04am Feb 17, 2021 7:04am
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  • #4,710
  • Feb 17, 2021 7:05am Feb 17, 2021 7:05am
Quoting vqs
{quote} Yes Sir, what I'm trying to ask is how do you do it. I don't have the Cyclic Eyes like you say. Is there a method that you use or it's all subjected to what you see? Regards VQ.
It's subjective/discretionary
  • #4,711
  • Feb 17, 2021 7:47am Feb 17, 2021 7:47am
Quoting Merka
{quote} It's subjective/discretionary
There is 80 % rationality 10 % uncertainty and it is only discretionary for 10 %. It is a rational process
  • #4,712
  • Feb 17, 2021 8:47am Feb 17, 2021 8:47am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} There is 80 % rationality 10 % uncertainty and it is only discretionary for 10 %. It is a rational process
Exactly Sir, my whole point of "homework" is to be able to see what you seeing, at least for the majority. That itself will keep things in the correct direction.

Regards
VQ.
  • #4,713
  • Feb 17, 2021 11:03am Feb 17, 2021 11:03am
Quoting jeanmichel
{image}
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  • #4,714
  • Feb 17, 2021 11:35am Feb 17, 2021 11:35am
Quoting vqs
{quote} Exactly Sir, my whole point of "homework" is to be able to see what you seeing, at least for the majority. That itself will keep things in the correct direction. Regards VQ.
1 st Step
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  • #4,715
  • Feb 17, 2021 11:40am Feb 17, 2021 11:40am
Quoting jeanmichel
{image}

HI Jean-Michel could you explain how you use your chart ?
  • #4,716
  • Feb 17, 2021 12:35pm Feb 17, 2021 12:35pm
2 nd Step
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  • #4,717
  • Feb 17, 2021 12:39pm Feb 17, 2021 12:39pm
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  • #4,718
  • Feb 17, 2021 12:47pm Feb 17, 2021 12:47pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} My 2 cents on your chart {image} {image} {image}
sir sorry for my absence i have been following to some degree trying what we were talking around and with farther being in difficult situation times abit sparse

however still following with immense interest

in that image you gave your two sense on are you creating the cycle waves based on the brown envelope curvature ? or is that just wishful thinking of mine

as ever thanks for all your lovely descriptions illustrations and everything you do for us
  • #4,719
  • Feb 17, 2021 12:50pm Feb 17, 2021 12:50pm
Quoting RoninTheory
{quote} sir sorry for my absence i have been following to some degree trying what we were talking around and with farther being in difficult situation times abit sparse however still following with immense interest in that image you gave your two sense on are you creating the cycle waves based on the brown envelope curvature ? or is that just wishful thinking of mine as ever thanks for all your lovely descriptions illustrations and everything you do for us
sir -


how do you arive at this beautiful conclusion that appears to look like a forecast into the future

as ever thankyou for beautiful help and illustrations
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  • #4,720
  • Feb 17, 2021 12:53pm Feb 17, 2021 12:53pm
The present cycles
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