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  • #1,190,821
  • Feb 17, 2021 1:17am Feb 17, 2021 1:17am
Quoting Leesi
{quote} Lol... It is like asking what is your credit card number .. Those who reveal their stop loss is similar like how u give your bank card and pin to a stranger.. Your stop loss for short or long is as per your position.. You have to decide where it should be.. Some says if u dont write your stop loss dont post... Lol... When i know ur stop loss, the game is so easy bro ! Btw i am not long.. I am just waiting on the sideline to see the drama..
alllllright. I was considering if it not falling like a rock from where it was before LO and go above 1.2100 than it my time to close my shorts loss. I didn't see any clear near tops or setups for stop hunting. this why I was curious what levels you see as shorts hunt.. but whatever. here you have my "credit card number", damn stranger.
  • #1,190,822
  • Feb 17, 2021 1:50am Feb 17, 2021 1:50am
Quoting Lamira
{quote} alllllright. I was considering if it not falling like a rock from where it was before LO and go above 1.2100 than it my time to close my shorts loss. I didn't see any clear near tops or setups for stop hunting. this why I was curious what levels you see as shorts hunt.. but whatever. here you have my "credit card number", damn stranger.
Dear if you read again you could spot what i mean exactly.. 2094 -97 is the level the bearish move get nutralised and turn to bullish mode.. Now you are asking me where i keep stop loss...
You mean if i go long?
  • #1,190,823
  • Feb 17, 2021 1:56am Feb 17, 2021 1:56am
Quoting NrSLionHeart
Yesterday was a BAD day - I was positioned long and the price just fell. So my bias for today is none. The price is at the confluence and it may go both ways. Long term the trend is bearish, but on the long term we are all dead. Edit: it seems that we are going down - we will know for sure when London starts!!!
Hey buddy just a little bit of context of why many longs can get taken out at high prices such as the ones traded yesterday. First thing to assess is the environment. There is trend exhaustion where buyers have been pushing EU for literally months so we know price is due for corrections at high prices because the uptrend will exhaust:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUtrendup.PNG Size: 63 KB


You can contemplate longs but keep in mind Bullish trend has been going up for a long time so the trend may stall and take out longs but it can still be safe to take longs but price just has to be above a pivot indicating bullish sentiment and the safest long trade would be a recent confirmed break above a pivot whether it be daily weekly or monthly. Any other more aggressive longs require additional analysis and varied analysis. However the safest trade in my opinion woud be shorts because I want to be a seller when buyers are exhausted. So in EU after buyers exhausted themselves for months, price broke below the monthly pivot and the weekly candle closed below it indicating bearish sentiment:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUpivotbreak.PNG Size: 62 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euweeklyclose.PNG Size: 62 KB


So now you have bearish sentiment, exhausted buyers and a turn in price to the downside marking the begining of a potential downtrend which is a perfect environment for a safe short trade. Once price was below the monthly pivot retracements to the upside were being shorted and price dropped and stayed below the monthly pivots:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUmonthlypivot.PNG Size: 73 KB


The long trade you took was very late and in bearish sentiment right when price was just below the current months monthly pivot so a drop was probable.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: shorteu.PNG Size: 93 KB



Then price broke the daily pivot downwards and the bearish sentiment occured on the daily pivot where sellers now control the environment. A better long for you would have been a break of the daily pivot upwards as show by the UP arrow:


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dailypivoteu.PNG Size: 95 KB
  • #1,190,824
  • Feb 17, 2021 2:01am Feb 17, 2021 2:01am
Looks a bit too good to be true for the bears and may be attracting lots of chasers at the bottom. Playing for a scalp to retest the TL breakout point + EMA 20, at which point it may even turn bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 47666284b39026161f2f128f66841a3b.png Size: 70 KB
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #1,190,825
  • Edited 2:19am Feb 17, 2021 2:08am | Edited 2:19am
Quoting Leesi
{quote} Dear if you read again you could spot what i mean exactly.. 2094 -97 is the level the bearish move get nutralised and turn to bullish mode.. Now you are asking me where i keep stop loss... You mean if i go long?
didn't care about your sl. wondered what levels you see as potential stop hunt..... but it doesn't matter anymore price already did move.
  • #1,190,826
  • Feb 17, 2021 2:12am Feb 17, 2021 2:12am
Quoting NYWallSt
{quote} Meant to add in chart. I'm watching for this move to play out. Considering that I see bullish on the Monthly/Quarterly chart, I'm preferring to buy on dips for the next potential 500+ pip move. {image}
TP hit from 1.2135 to 1.2070. Short is closed. Have a buy order waiting at 1.2067. We'll see if bulls can hold that area for a bounce.
"The market doesn't beat them, they beat themselves" - J. Livermore
  • #1,190,827
  • Feb 17, 2021 2:18am Feb 17, 2021 2:18am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Hey buddy just a little bit of context of why many longs can get taken out at high prices such as the ones traded yesterday. First thing to assess is the environment. There is trend exhaustion where buyers have been pushing EU for literally months so we know price is due for corrections at high prices because the uptrend will exhaust: {image} You can contemplate longs but keep in mind Bullish trend has been going up for a long time so the trend may stall and take out longs but it can still be safe to take longs but price just has to be above...
mannnn... im loving your essays
  • #1,190,828
  • Feb 17, 2021 2:22am Feb 17, 2021 2:22am
Quoting Lamira
{quote} mannnn... im loving your essays
And you bought or sold
  • #1,190,829
  • Feb 17, 2021 2:25am Feb 17, 2021 2:25am
Quoting Leesi
{quote} And you bought or sold
I have shorts under water planted after NFP Friday. didn't expect THAT much of bull move last week .lol this pair definitely bullied me roughly
  • #1,190,830
  • Feb 17, 2021 3:53am Feb 17, 2021 3:53am
Quoting Lamira
{quote} mannnn... im loving your essays
haha thanks buddy. What price are you short at?
  • #1,190,831
  • Feb 17, 2021 4:23am Feb 17, 2021 4:23am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Did you sold this move up? Thanks. Today I see more bearisness from this pair, resistance is at 2123/55 and support (small) at 2069. Below for weekly target 2047 is the break it or, make it level for more downside to 2011 first, or a bounce up again. Glad you read me! Have a great trading day ahead.
Some volatility is back, so we may see 2047 and below today. US retail sales is priced in although.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,190,832
  • Feb 17, 2021 4:35am Feb 17, 2021 4:35am
EU have potential fall some 45 pips to 1.2010s with GU to 1.3820s while UC bounce up to around 0.8990
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #1,190,833
  • Feb 17, 2021 4:59am Feb 17, 2021 4:59am
Sell tops on daily. Reduce position on bottoms. Adjust sl on remaining position below break even.

Guess the hard part is knowing the top and bottom.

Look at charts for previous low and high on daily.

Keep small position in case prices pushes down further but don't let that position go underwater

Thoughts of a swing trader

Not buying bottoms because I'm seeing LLs and LHs on daily starting back in January... Seems pretty simple but then again it's forex
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  • #1,190,834
  • Feb 17, 2021 5:06am Feb 17, 2021 5:06am
Quoting mistaouting
Sell tops on daily. Reduce position on bottoms. Adjust sl on remaining position below break even. Guess the hard part is knowing the top and bottom. Look at charts for previous low and high on daily. Keep small position in case prices pushes down further but don't let that position go underwater Thoughts of a swing trader Not buying bottoms because I'm seeing LLs and LHs on daily starting back in January... Seems pretty simple but then again it's forex
Most important part in that is "but then again it's forex". Because a butterflies fart in another country could cause me to start buying bottoms
LOCK IN RE-ENTER
  • #1,190,835
  • Feb 17, 2021 5:18am Feb 17, 2021 5:18am
73% of lots are long but 52% of traders are short currently in ff live accounts
LOCK IN RE-ENTER
  • #1,190,836
  • Feb 17, 2021 5:20am Feb 17, 2021 5:20am
Quoting mistaouting
{quote} Most important part in that is "but then again it's forex". Because a butterflies fart in another country could cause me to start buying bottoms
Lol. Thanks man. INstead of focusing on my charts youve got me googling "can butterflies fart" lol
  • #1,190,837
  • Feb 17, 2021 5:26am Feb 17, 2021 5:26am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Lol. Thanks man. INstead of focusing on my charts youve got me googling "can butterflies fart" lol
Its more important anyway
LOCK IN RE-ENTER
  • #1,190,838
  • Feb 17, 2021 5:33am Feb 17, 2021 5:33am
Quoting mistaouting
73% of lots are long but 52% of traders are short currently in ff live accounts
You guys should really look at FF position stats. Very interesting and insightful.

Both long and short positions avg trade return is negative... . Longs entering where shorts should and shorts entering where longs should. Looking at avg entry and return

But seems also obvious from those stats from yesterday to now.... Those long positions grew.....seems why quoted stats above seems crazy.... I could only guess they are averaging down their long entries
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  • #1,190,839
  • Feb 17, 2021 5:44am Feb 17, 2021 5:44am
Quoting mistaouting
Sell tops on daily. Reduce position on bottoms. Adjust sl on remaining position below break even. Guess the hard part is knowing the top and bottom. Look at charts for previous low and high on daily. Keep small position in case prices pushes down further but don't let that position go underwater
I guess I can add one more!

Find an equilibrioum. Price always reacts from it, and to it and can give clues for the current trend, but focus on weekly base, because other timeframes are not good for EU, but you can use smaller timeframes to trade it.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,190,840
  • Feb 17, 2021 6:45am Feb 17, 2021 6:45am
Levels for today,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: levels 17 feb.jpg Size: 204 KB

So we either hit the bottom or if the US data is great it will fall to 1.20174
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