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Price action at the core = family members' discussion project

  • #1,601
  • Feb 12, 2021 7:25pm Feb 12, 2021 7:25pm
If you are "addicted" to using an indicator or using a chart, then you have already lost the war. You can't see anything coming. If you cannot read and understand simple words on a page then you've lost the war. Markets don't move because of a chart or your indicator. I have posted MANY chart pics that show what I am talking about. It is YOUR responsibility to first ASSUME you're wrong, THEN go and investigate WHY that assumption is true and correct. If you cannot do this then you cannot think and cannot problem solve. And you're not running off humility, you're doing everything from the same place as the people who want to argue "there is/there isn't" a trend/momentum/price going up and down etc etc.

I find it hard to respect anyone who expects to be treated as an adult but thinks like a child.

For me, if I meet someone who knows and understands more/better than me, I don't wag my tail in their face and poke my tongue at them. No. I listen. I ask questions that are based on the view that my assumptions and beliefs are incomplete.

If you "like pretty little pictures" here's a good one for you ..........


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If someone has genuine humility to learn, then they will not be offended by this picture. You will know that you are being asked to check yourself.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,602
  • Feb 12, 2021 7:43pm Feb 12, 2021 7:43pm
As you move along your learning path, it might become apparent to you that you don't need, or have outgrown the use of a particular indicator. This is a good sign. It means you have ACTUALLY learned something and the decision to move on from it is the effect of this.

"Price Action" as most "followers" like to call it, is nothing more than observing what others are thinking. You can see it in any market, depending on the signs.

If you want to know what is real in the world of trading, put each of you indicators to the test.

Give them the opportunity to prove how many times out of 100 attempts, they offer a strong insightful indication into a successful trade setup.
As much as I know this will sound childish, but I see it may get a rise out of some people ---

I DARE YOU. I DOUBLE DARE YOU. I dare you to participate in this challenge and have your eyes opened to just how LITTLE you know and understand WITHOUT your indications and 'support team'.

If you have just .... let's say .... in the last 20yrs or so, stepped into the world of trading the financial markets, and you HAVE NOT STUDIED THE PAST CHRONOLOGY OF "how" A MARKET OPERATES, then you are being gulled into believing whatever story "modern day" life pushes onto you. You're trying to get an indicator to do the work for you that you NEED to do yourself in your head.

This is why I challenge people to the above opportunity. If you don't know and understand these things, then the "bagman" will always beat you in the game of trading because you lack the real humility to just BE ignorant, from the start, both in knowledge AND attitude.

Let's see what happens now.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,603
  • Feb 12, 2021 7:59pm Feb 12, 2021 7:59pm
People could stop playing the "right and wrong game" and simply realize that there is a better game to play - what is true.

This idea is simple. Start by asking a single question - Does this that I observe, happen only once or does it happen many times over?

*** People whose attitude exceeds their knowledge and know-how always seem to react the same way when challenged.

So now ask a another simple question - What details can I observe that are big and small, that happen over and over?

*** People who only know how to learn in one form or style or approach, always make up excuses - I/You "......" - fill in the blanks.

I simply don't care if you agree or not. That's the beauty of this game, it does not matter if you agree, disagree, believe, don't believe.

The is a very very real difference between a speculator and a trader.

Can you think of what it might be?

I bet it has something to do with the ways they think and how they differ from each other.

I'll stop there so people can think about this.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,604
  • Edited 9:12pm Feb 12, 2021 8:32pm | Edited 9:12pm
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Common sense observation -----

Q - What is always present within this picture? Be specific and pay attention.

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Common sense extraction of information

Q - What are the similarities and differences between the bottles in the picture?

Common sense amalgamation of an idea .....

Price goes up and it goes down


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Idea of Time - People usually use a linear way to identify and use time ......


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Trading is about "Know Thy Self". Once you understand this and apply to it you, you will see the ways you would trade IF there was no pressure to be right, no losses or gains, why some things are better than others, why some ways work better than other ways, why trading has nothing to do with what the "industry" says it is. EVER.

And you would then see, that it's not the tools but YOU, that need adjustment. You bring whatever you "think" you know into an area that will prove time and time again, that you are wrong in some way.

Patterns of acceptable use with indicators and data will get you a bit of the way. But the way you help your tools to work together is essential, even more important than 'a good trade'.

I look at trading as similar to surfing. If you are new to it but don't know how to "read" the landscape, you're dead. You'll be smashed onto the reef or sandbank and probably run out of the water in terror, never to return to it again. And if you do return, you'll forever carry with you that terrifying experience and it will haunt you til your death.

SO if I was teaching someone how to trade, from scratch, I would simply ask them to sit and watch the market. Perhaps the M1 chart as more action happens in a short time so you can observe it without judgment or even a thought.

A H1 chart, next to its smaller views ...

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When something looks very pointy on a chart, like a reversed move or a spike/wick, it always has more detail on the lower TF. This is the idea of the fractal nature of something. This is just a name but has been present in nature forever. The next thing to realize is that you have to find something you can trust most of the time, or even better - ALL the time.

I use common sense. It's in the common area regardless of whether people use it or not. It's available to everyone at any time.

EG - You wouldn't walk across a busy main road without looking first right? Why? That's common sense at work.

The rest of the "stuff" to do with trading with your own money is really just step by step. You must know how to categorize everything properly. Learn how to see concept and information. Concept is the general idea and landscape of something. Information is the way we take baby steps. Without concept you cannot trade properly. You will rely too much on half-assed indicators and treat them as more important than the facts that would help you understand yourself and others.

Each TF has a dynamic central value and this is what you see when you use eg a TMA channel etc. or perhaps a MA with very specific settings that tries to centre itself in the middle of the markets' movement generally. From this centre you can approach a basic understanding of standard deviations = 1,2,3,4,5 etc. Each one carries a % of reliability that aligns with the market's interested movements. A speculator and a trader use SD very differently. A speculator is "trying" to do a trade. But a trader has already worked out that market's breadth and knows what they're dealing with, regardless of which direction it goes. They are prepared to trade WITH the market because they know where the "Truth" of their knowledge stops and where all speculation begins. Concept must be present before information can be helpful.


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By looking at a chart and understanding specific concepts first, you can understand the information that is presented. You cannot achieve this by looking a chart alone. You need to understand how the markets used to work so you can appreciate how transactions happen and what process MUST be in place at all times to keep everything going.

People who profess "Price Behaviorism" are missing the biggest piece of knowledge because of their limited concept view of the markets. So they create a story to explain what they do not know and understand. Now go look at the H1 chart pic again above and ONLY look at the H1 chart view. The black Rate of change trend line is set near a sharp "V" shaped reversal. A price action follower would never know that the ROC has shifted just by looking at that chart. And so, could not appreciate why it reversed without applying some story to their thinking. Now look at the LTF charts in that same pic. Can you see it "rounding off"? This is a sign of participants getting in and out and some others 'building a position' to then wait for it to go one way or the other. This is what happens when people understand how to trade. They understand many styles of trading so that the %'s do the rest.

Now go and re-read this post over and over. And then make notes.

I hope that helps.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,605
  • Feb 12, 2021 9:01pm Feb 12, 2021 9:01pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
If you are "addicted" to using an indicator or using a chart, then you have already lost the war. You can't see anything coming. If you cannot read and understand simple words on a page then you've lost the war. Markets don't move because of a chart or your indicator. I have posted MANY chart pics that show what I am talking about. It is YOUR responsibility to first ASSUME you're wrong, THEN go and investigate WHY that assumption is true and correct. If you cannot do this then you cannot think and cannot problem solve. And you're not running off...
Even if someday i know more than you, it would be my insult and i would be ashamed of such a thought to expect you to wag tail tounge.

I understands alot of things now why you write alot no worries. Nature tells me alot of things.

As you know i see forex like a mechanical thing 1+1=2 and it happens again n again and very simple to explain and see as you can see i pick trades from bottom in m1 and if i can do that 60% of time it is a good method and way to trade.

May be i will grow more i can understand you more.
Enjoy the weekend stay safe and blessed!
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,606
  • Feb 12, 2021 9:05pm Feb 12, 2021 9:05pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
People could stop playing the "right and wrong game" and simply realize that there is a better game to play - what is true. This idea is simple. Start by asking a single question - Does this that I observe, happen only once or does it happen many times over? *** People whose attitude exceeds their knowledge and know-how always seem to react the same way when challenged. So now ask a another simple question - What details can I observe that are big and small, that happen over and over? *** People who only know how to learn in one form or style or...
to learn if you can show what happens again an again as per your keen observation and show us on a higher and lower timeframe for execution would be great!
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,607
  • Feb 12, 2021 9:18pm Feb 12, 2021 9:18pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} to learn if you can show what happens again an again as per your keen observation and show us on a higher and lower timeframe for execution would be great!


I have been doing that ever since I arrived here. Mechanical thinking can only be based on what is passed and is forecasting to work into the future. This is not trading, it is speculation. Please refer to post 1,604.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,608
  • Feb 12, 2021 9:40pm Feb 12, 2021 9:40pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{image} By looking at a chart and understanding specific concepts first, you can understand the information that is presented. You cannot achieve this by looking a chart alone.
Thank you for sharing the chart i love them the most. and trust me i can see just by seeing a chart alone. price is the only indicator i need yes rsi too at time for conflulence.

blue circles would be my entries based on M1 time frame after seeing those specific repeating things! i dont like chasing i let price come and pick my order always.

once you see the chart like that you cannot unsee that its the elephant in the room as per Michael aka ICT
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,609
  • Feb 13, 2021 6:13am Feb 13, 2021 6:13am
Quoting PeterCaleb
What is always present within this picture?
Drugs? Alcohol? Mushrooms? What are you using to write all that stuff day by day?
It is amazing how for example RickM can give huge knowledge in 2 sentences and PeterCaleb nothing, zero, with 100500 posts each as big as full Harry Potter series.
Observer effect
  • #1,610
  • Feb 13, 2021 6:41am Feb 13, 2021 6:41am
Quoting ryuryu
Drugs? Alcohol? Mushrooms? What are you using to write all that stuff day by day? It is amazing how for example RickM can give huge knowledge in 2 sentences and PeterCaleb nothing, zero, with 100500 posts each as big as full Harry Potter series.
Writes nice and smells nice too.
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Know what you trade
  • #1,611
  • Feb 13, 2021 7:55am Feb 13, 2021 7:55am
Quoting PeterCaleb
From my experience, the 20/80 rule is expandable as needed to help a person understand many different things. But I would not suggest nailing it down to any one way of thinking. Trading is really about the nature of thinking, observation, problem solving, knowing how to learn from your own mistakes, enhancing your own ability to deal with money, self discipline and maturity. Most people struggle because they are in denial of having a problem in one or more of these areas. So they do not learn and adapt. I would suggest make whatever notes you can...
Thank you for your detailed response. It is always helpful for a learner like me to get actionable knowledge.

Looks like this part escaped your attention. You are free to comment or not.

Based on your experience, is it true controlling your mind and opening your purse from time to time to meet drawdown is more important (90% of the time) than anything else? This means 10 pc of skill is needed to find which symbol has strong mean-reverting tendencies and ability to produce pip milk, then draw 3 lines on the chart assuming them to be win target, and loss target and middle line as entry shooter or use similar trading plots or tactics.

Having done that when the price line is at or close to the middle level of D1 or H4 you toss and go by the result of head and tail for direction selection.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #1,612
  • Feb 13, 2021 7:54pm Feb 13, 2021 7:54pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Drugs? Alcohol? Mushrooms? What are you using to write all that stuff day by day? It is amazing how for example RickM can give huge knowledge in 2 sentences and PeterCaleb nothing, zero, with 100500 posts each as big as full Harry Potter series.


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Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,613
  • Feb 13, 2021 7:56pm Feb 13, 2021 7:56pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Writes nice and smells nice too. {image}


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Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,614
  • Feb 13, 2021 8:23pm Feb 13, 2021 8:23pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} Thank you for your detailed response. It is always helpful for a learner like me to get actionable knowledge. Looks like this part escaped your attention. You are free to comment or not. Based on your experience, is it true controlling your mind and opening your purse from time to time to meet drawdown is more important (90% of the time) than anything else? This means 10 pc of skill is needed to find which symbol has strong mean-reverting tendencies and ability to produce pip milk, then draw 3 lines on the chart assuming them to be win target,...


simz,

It didn't escape my attention, I just didn't see the need to respond. However, if you need me to then I shall say this -

For me, I would never add money to my account just to cover a maxxed out drawdown. If I am reading this correctly. I don't know about the ACTUAL percentages, I think they would vary from person to person. But you have 3 parts - you (mind and heart), your knowledge and experience that (CAN) leads to competency and wisdom, and then there's the 'skill set' that breaches the surface in a more natural and instinctive way. This cannot be "taught" it must be 'grown/nurtured'. Seeing as a lot of people on here don't seem to have very good instincts, they are left with no other choice than to turn to chance and intellectual information that end up making them an overactive critical analyst. Mean reversion should only ever be part of a bigger strategy and not a standalone option. As for the details for H4 and D1 and drawing lines.... 2 traders can be given the same tools and produce vastly different results. This is where chance stops being influential in playing any part and a person's creative "artfulness" (for lack of a better word) kicks in. I'm not sure IF this is what you wanted me to talk about here, but there you have it. 'Modern people' cannot explain nor understand why some people do better than others when both start with the same information. Above is a 'basic' answer to that question. People rely FAR TOO MUCH on data and 'information' to 'tell them what to do' and lack any instinctive skill or knowledge.

Hence the addiction to something outside themselves and probably part of the reason why they tend to "graze" on sites like these FAR beyond the natural expiry date of 'why they came here in the first place'.

I hope that helps.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,615
  • Edited 9:09pm Feb 13, 2021 8:46pm | Edited 9:09pm
Hi Peter

If we build an EA to test reversal systems on forex pairs, we come up with the same stats on most occasions.

Rule number 1. - The time frame used to trade mean reversal systems needs to be compatible with the forex pair we trade.
Rule number 2 - The market period we trade needs to compliment rule one.

For example - Many forex pairs that I have tested show the most profitable time frame to be H1. A few pairs like USDJPY and NZDCAD always produce better results on H4.
Without intense back testing of pairs over all time frames, we are just gambling.

But if you want to know the holy grail of mean reversing strategies, that is trading the London / New York cross over on M1, trading any pair that has had a London session break out.

Thats what we Cave dwellers fo best.

PS. I almost forgot Rule AAA+
Don’t trade mean reversal systems if you enter at the beginning of extense increasing volume levels

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,616
  • Feb 13, 2021 10:15pm Feb 13, 2021 10:15pm
Quoting RickM
Hi Peter If we build an EA to test reversal systems on forex pairs, we come up with the same stats on most occasions. Rule number 1. - The time frame used to trade mean reversal systems needs to be compatible with the forex pair we trade. Rule number 2 - The market period we trade needs to compliment rule one. For example - Many forex pairs that I have tested show the most profitable time frame to be H1. A few pairs like USDJPY and NZDCAD always produce better results on H4. Without intense back testing of pairs over all time frames, we are just...


RickM,

I know what you're trying to say. I have a slightly different view of how I see all these new tech approaches and attempts to "explain the market" .... please wait one moment ..... loading ......

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And finally, the final and best way to depict all this ....


Inserted Video



Hihihihihihihihihehehehehehehahahahahahahahahaha


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,617
  • Feb 13, 2021 10:22pm Feb 13, 2021 10:22pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} Thank you for your detailed response. It is always helpful for a learner like me to get actionable knowledge. Looks like this part escaped your attention. You are free to comment or not. Based on your experience, is it true controlling your mind and opening your purse from time to time to meet drawdown is more important (90% of the time) than anything else? This means 10 pc of skill is needed to find which symbol has strong mean-reverting tendencies and ability to produce pip milk, then draw 3 lines on the chart assuming them to be win target,...


Of course, another way to see this is, that if you simply maintain eg a $5000 trading account balance, when in profit either continue to build the account, or, withdraw said profits. When it's in a negative balance, transfer money into the account to maintain the static account balance. However this approach would be preset for a specific strategy that only needs X dollars in the account. So I suppose it would depend on the strategy and the goals of the trader.

I hope that helps to clarify.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,618
  • Feb 13, 2021 10:25pm Feb 13, 2021 10:25pm
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Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #1,619
  • Feb 13, 2021 11:12pm Feb 13, 2021 11:12pm
Amazingly, the long-winded message had gone from the sublime to the ridiculous.
You are better off start learning something useful from here - MT4 to Excel through Excel RTD (Finally!).
O yes before someone jumps in to say you mean this rubbish - MT4 to Excel through Excel RTD (Finally!) can beat the multi- billion cartel who employed top notch computer scientist and blah blah blah. Don't reflect your ignorance here till you have at least learn something about machine learning via MS Excel.
  • #1,620
  • Feb 13, 2021 11:57pm Feb 13, 2021 11:57pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} simz, It didn't escape my attention, I just didn't see the need to respond. However, if you need me to then I shall say this - For me, I would never add money to my account just to cover a maxxed out drawdown. If I am reading this correctly. I don't know about the ACTUAL percentages, I think they would vary from person to person. But you have 3 parts - you (mind and heart), your knowledge and experience that (CAN) leads to competency and wisdom, and then there's the 'skill set' that breaches the surface in a more natural and instinctive...
Glad you chose to answer it.

Those interested in pursuing this kind of "artful" approach to trading may be interested in reading what two psychologists have to say.

I learned a lot from these two psychologists:

Re-Train the Brain for Success in Trading by Rande Howell

Every elite trader has these six qualities - an interview with Dr Brett Steenbarger
Practice makes a person perfect
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