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My way of seeing the market

  • #81
  • Edited 3:33pm Feb 11, 2021 2:55pm | Edited 3:33pm
Quoting venividivici
{image} Good job Jay, keep it up!
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No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #82
  • Feb 11, 2021 10:28pm Feb 11, 2021 10:28pm
Quoting Jaymantos
Today's trade was a loser. {image} The idea is that we had vigorously broken the bottom level, and price pulled back to that level, loaded. I put my stop above the wick of a previous bear candle highlighted in the upmost rectangle. Unfortunately, it was a loser. What is funny though, is that from the open we touched every location I was assuming would get touched one after the other. Then when I load, it goes against me straight... Another thing to laugh about (once I come to my senses)! Right now I am frustrated. I am afraid also. At least I am...
Two things here:

look at the micro structure also - wick, break, pullback.

Look at bottoming action: first low, second lower low immediate failure, rebound at first low. This happens constantly on a micro and macro level. Sometimes it will be a climax bear bar, 2nd bar is bear bar to new low, third bar is bull hammer/pin bar/inside bar, fourth bar will pb to bar 1 low and then go up.
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Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #83
  • Edited 6:48am Feb 12, 2021 5:14am | Edited 6:48am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Two things here: look at the micro structure also - wick, break, pullback. Look at bottoming action: first low, second lower low immediate failure, rebound at first low. This happens constantly on a micro and macro level. Sometimes it will be a climax bear bar, 2nd bar is bear bar to new low, third bar is bull hammer/pin bar/inside bar, fourth bar will pb to bar 1 low and then go up. {image}
Thanks Jmflukeiii, I will study it more carefully.

------------------------

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I messed up this one.

I probably need to better read the micro structure and watch live price more carefully..

Also, I notice it had no blank space left :

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--------------------------------

I guess with G7 meettings going on I should stay on the sidelines.


"Be a trader, not a storm chaser mate"
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #84
  • Feb 12, 2021 9:29am Feb 12, 2021 9:29am
Quoting Jaymantos
{quote} Thanks Jmflukeiii, I will study it more carefully. ------------------------ {image} I messed up this one. I probably need to better read the micro structure and watch live price more carefully.. Also, I notice it had no blank space left : {image} -------------------------------- I guess with G7 meettings going on I should stay on the sidelines. "Be a trader, not a storm chaser mate"
Looks like you managed to some arbitrary risk reward or something. Look for wicks to target, does not matter what R:R it is. At the very least take some risk off the table my getting stop to BE.

Also, no need to make lots of ticks; Focus on consistent daily profit, then focus on increasing size.
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Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #85
  • Feb 12, 2021 10:20am Feb 12, 2021 10:20am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Looks like you managed to some arbitrary risk reward or something. Look for wicks to target, does not matter what R:R it is. At the very least take some risk off the table my getting stop to BE. Also, no need to make lots of ticks; Focus on consistent daily profit, then focus on increasing size. {image}
Reading price live is where I'm currently struggling the most. Especially when I have a trade on... It seems it introduces new elements of randomness in my trading (due to my poor live reading skills, right now). I don't think straight when I'm in a trade lol and I end up making the same old mistakes... I don't interpret the live price correctly, yet.

When price stalls somewhere, it's a sign of weakness right? It seems sometimes, it is also a sign it will keep going..

I should at least start by securing some profits when I see price slowing down...
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #86
  • Feb 12, 2021 10:30am Feb 12, 2021 10:30am
Quoting Jaymantos
{quote} Reading price live is where I'm currently struggling the most. Especially when I have a trade on... It seems it introduces new elements of randomness in my trading (due to my poor live reading skills, right now). I don't think straight when I'm in a trade lol and I end up making the same old mistakes... I don't interpret the live price correctly, yet. When price stalls somewhere, it's a sign of weakness right? It seems sometimes, it is also a sign it will keep going.. I should at least start by securing some profits when...
I generally exit trades on the bar I entered on, some I'm not so concerned with stalling or what not. I set a target based on the prior s/r and get out if it gets there. if it keeps going, I'm okay with that.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #87
  • Edited 11:23am Feb 12, 2021 11:12am | Edited 11:23am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} I generally exit trades on the bar I entered on, some I'm not so concerned with stalling or what not. I set a target based on the prior s/r and get out if it gets there. if it keeps going, I'm okay with that.
I think, if I understand correctly (and from what my results show me so far(lots of small losses, few 2-2.5R winners,lots of B/E --- negative overall)) what I need to do is focus on defending my positions instead of being too concerned with letting them run with "hard-coded" management and thinking it is what i need to do to account for RR and win rate. Every little S/R zone I need to be aware of them and not let price turn on me... Better reloading after in cases like this.

I will start with moving my stop under market at S/R... For example, B/E first, then if it breaks the zone, let it ride to next, etc.

From this understanding, I need to load setups with enough distance before trouble..

Unfortunately, loading and closing on the same M1 bar seems far fetched on currency pairs... (I know you trade indexes and I can see how it is possible there)
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #88
  • Feb 12, 2021 7:20pm Feb 12, 2021 7:20pm
Quoting Jaymantos
{quote} I think, if I understand correctly (and from what my results show me so far(lots of small losses, few 2-2.5R winners,lots of B/E --- negative overall)) what I need to do is focus on defending my positions instead of being too concerned with letting them run with "hard-coded" management and thinking it is what i need to do to account for RR and win rate. Every little S/R zone I need to be aware of them and not let price turn on me... Better reloading after in cases like this. I will start with moving my stop under market at S/R... For example,...
Used to be possible 10 years ago on the currencies! But yes, no longer. Honestly, do what you think is best for you - there are obviously successful forex traders - but after switching to NQ, I improved my bottom line exponentially. However, I have some personality traits that are perhaps better suited for it: I am terrible at holding trades, I am terrible at reading low movement price action, and I am terrible at sitting here staring at the computer for longer than an hour. I think I said it before, but instead of fighting myself, I evolved what I do to work for myself.

That is probably why this should be my last post here - you just have to figure out what it is that is going to work for you. For me, I trade micro and macro levels from the wicks as well as 1M candle patterns into the trend and away from an overextended trend. I trade prior to New York lunch for 1 hour, I have a set daily target, I take profit at the most immediate target, and I quickly protect profit using my stop. The price action stuff, the methods, the systems... honestly unless you are arbitraging data speeds, all boils down to the same thing - Michael sees what I see and I see what Venividivici sees - we interact with it differently, probably due to what we feel comfortable with. Some folks will use indicators to define the market structure, but it all boils down to the structure. The action. Where were there more buyers than sellers and who in general is in control.

The last comment relative to futures is that I have increasingly realized the value of reading the volume, not all this order flow stuff, but simply scanning the bars on the screen to see on which bars the volume came in. You have initiating high volume (i.e. breakout) and you have stopping high volume - the trend definition has become somewhat more to me about the cumulative affect of this volume - market breaks to new high on very high volume - generally this means the trend is now DOWN until the market has accumulated an equivalent amount of volume on bear bars. A chart attached from today from my own review. Also a chart with some of the micro levels that are the trigger points for trades.
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Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #89
  • Feb 13, 2021 10:51am Feb 13, 2021 10:51am
I know it can appear that I am ignoring some advices and not paying attention correctly, and it probably have a jading effect on those trying to help … Just know that it is really not intentional… I’m probably trying too hard to “understand” everything that has been said here and missing the point sometimes… Or wanting to address the point too fast without understanding clearly, which probably has a similar effect.

Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Used to be possible 10 years ago on the currencies! But yes, no longer. Honestly, do what you think is best for you - there are obviously successful forex traders - but after switching to NQ, I improved my bottom line exponentially. However, I have some personality traits that are perhaps better suited for it: I am terrible at holding trades, I am terrible at reading low movement price action, and I am terrible at sitting here staring at the computer for longer than an hour. I think I said it before, but instead of fighting myself, I evolved what I do to work for myself. That is probably why this should be my last post here - you just have to figure out what it is that is going to work for you. For me, I trade micro and macro levels from the wicks as well as 1M candle patterns into the trend and away from an overextended trend. I trade prior to New York lunch for 1 hour, I have a set daily target, I take profit at the most immediate target, and I quickly protect profit using my stop. The price action stuff, the methods, the systems... honestly unless you are arbitraging data speeds, all boils down to the same thing - Michael sees what I see and I see what Venividivici sees - we interact with it differently, probably due to what we feel comfortable with. Some folks will use indicators to define the market structure, but it all boils down to the structure. The action. Where were there more buyers than sellers and who in general is in control. The last comment relative to futures is that I have increasingly realized the value of reading the volume, not all this order flow stuff, but simply scanning the bars on the screen to see on which bars the volume came in. You have initiating high volume (i.e. breakout) and you have stopping high volume - the trend definition has become somewhat more to me about the cumulative affect of this volume - market breaks to new high on very high volume - generally this means the trend is now DOWN until the market has accumulated an equivalent amount of volume on bear bars. A chart attached from today from my own review. Also a chart with some of the micro levels that are the trigger points for trades. {image} {image}
I know I like to spend long hours in front of the computer (having a sense I'm beating on my craft). I know those preferences can also change later if/when my career evolves. In order to do that and sustain longer hours I probably need to trade something slower and take small breaks between trade setups, etc.

I think I have only so much focus to give in a day and I can either lengthen it on slower pairs or condense it on 1 hour of NQ trading.

For me I find that I end up messing things up on NQ exactly because I trade too much while my focus is depleted. It’s dumb, but I know 1 hour on NQ is all that’s needed but I find myself trying to catch more every single time. This issue is clearly of a psychological nature and has to do with my relation to “work”.

It is clear that there are many ways to get to the top of the mountain (like Michael is pointing out since the beginning)… Even though they are probably all somewhat similar (like you are pointing out)..
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #90
  • Feb 15, 2021 4:41am Feb 15, 2021 4:41am
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Below the arrow is a sharp move up with little to no disruption in the leg. It stops and we can see price interacts with a few candles bunched up on the immediate left. There's a small reversal pattern (small dt + bear candle). In purple are a few micro levels that can mess up with the trade. I quickly unloaded when I saw price mess with the first micro level for a B/E.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #91
  • Edited 5:51am Feb 16, 2021 5:40am | Edited 5:51am
Working on reading that live PA and micro levels...

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First micro level, resistance, providing a "wall" for the stop...

In retrospect, I should have exit at last low's wick.

It is really a job of paying attention to details and being focussed.

I need to be focus in the now and pay attention to the right details, else it will all happen before my eyes....

Inserted Video
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #92
  • Feb 16, 2021 8:01am Feb 16, 2021 8:01am
There's alot in the micro action that regular traders don't even see, It's great..like you said looking at a chart for all the little details and clues and getting in on that move that you predicted right before it happens because of all the micro wicks you can see bouncing off tiny levels. By the way if you open a tick chart you will see that these micro levels and bounces are just normal looking price action like what you see on the minute now, and if you go even lower than a tick chart (if that even exists) you will see the same thing from higher to lower etc its all a big cycle.
  • #93
  • Feb 16, 2021 9:41am Feb 16, 2021 9:41am
Quoting venividivici
There's alot in the micro action that regular traders don't even see, It's great..like you said looking at a chart for all the little details and clues and getting in on that move that you predicted right before it happens because of all the micro wicks you can see bouncing off tiny levels. By the way if you open a tick chart you will see that these micro levels and bounces are just normal looking price action like what you see on the minute now, and if you go even lower than a tick chart (if that even exists) you will see the same thing from higher...
Do you suggest having a tick chart on the side? What I like of trading only one chart is the simplicity... My attention span is very limited, constantly changing task makes me dumb! That is why I trade in 30 mins block with full focus, then take a pause.. I did 4 today.

Btw, I'm still "studying" your thread...

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Most likely last trade today. Bouncing on the micro level, then bullish reversal candle, load. I'm sure we can also see that on the tick chart..

Thank you Veni...
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #94
  • Feb 16, 2021 12:06pm Feb 16, 2021 12:06pm
It's really up to you, I don't think its needed but people like different things.
  • #95
  • Feb 17, 2021 4:24am Feb 17, 2021 4:24am
I want to touch up on what Jens said that's difficult to explain regarding watching the candles live, or as many people call momentum...Let's use some non-trading logical examples to make sense of the situation first.

Let's take the example of playing football/soccer, What are you doing during a game on a team that's defending? you're constantly trying to get the ball...but let's take that and put it to real life practice, most people know how it feels to focus and naturally try to get the ball off the opponent but can they explain why or how?
Aren't they just following the movement of the ball and opponent to try and get the ball off them? Are they looking for any indicators whilst doing this?, Yes you can try and predict the next fast move of the player who has the ball by his movements in your brain, but if you go by that theory you will be constantly behind..it wont be very practical whilst you're in a sport fast paced environment, what you're actually doing is you're in a constant flow of following the ball and player live as it happens, you are improvising your actions to match the players each millisecond. So now ask yourself, if I compare this logic to the momentum on a minute chart how do I apply it? Pretty much the same as playing sports. The levels from the past are already there drawn up on the chart, those are static but many of them still reactive, the static pinbars and reversal patterns are also there...again already drawn in the past but good clues. What can you do? take those static images as information but follow your trades in the now flow...observe the speed in how the price action is developing, You will get a feel of these things watching it live, but if you flick to a different chart and immediately see a reversal pattern and take it, it means nothing..its a static image, you're not actually observing how the price is behaving live as it develops.

Usually a successful reversal slows down at the top or bottom, turns and accelerates to reverse.
  • #96
  • Edited 10:11am Feb 17, 2021 9:58am | Edited 10:11am
Quoting venividivici
I want to touch up on what Jens said that's difficult to explain regarding watching the candles live, or as many people call momentum...Let's use some non-trading logical examples to make sense of the situation first. Let's take the example of playing football/soccer, What are you doing during a game on a team that's defending? you're constantly trying to get the ball...but let's take that and put it to real life practice, most people know how it feels to focus and naturally try to get the ball off the opponent but can they explain why or how? Aren't they just following the movement of the ball and opponent to try and get the ball off them? Are they looking for any indicators whilst doing this?, Yes you can try and predict the next fast move of the player who has the ball by his movements in your brain, but if you go by that theory you will be constantly behind..it wont be very practical whilst you're in a sport fast paced environment, what you're actually doing is you're in a constant flow of following the ball and player live as it happens, you are improvising your actions to match the players each millisecond. So now ask yourself, if I compare this logic to the momentum on a minute chart how do I apply it? Pretty much the same as playing sports. The levels from the past are already there drawn up on the chart, those are static but many of them still reactive, the static pinbars and reversal patterns are also there...again already drawn in the past but good clues. What can you do? take those static images as information but follow your trades in the now flow...observe the speed in how the price action is developing, You will get a feel of these things watching it live, but if you flick to a different chart and immediately see a reversal pattern and take it, it means nothing..its a static image, you're not actually observing how the price is behaving live as it develops. Usually a successful reversal slows down at the top or bottom, turns and accelerates to reverse.
I am assuming this is where a tick chart could come in handy...

I think I get the idea. For example when price seems to "stall" at an area and it's matched with a micro level. I probably require more screen time to understand the depth of it fully and also more screen time on forex pairs...
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #97
  • Feb 17, 2021 10:33am Feb 17, 2021 10:33am
Quoting Jaymantos
{quote} I am assuming this is where a tick chart could come in handy... I think I get the idea. For example when price seems to "stall" at an area and it's matched with a micro level. I probably require more screen time to understand the depth of it fully and also more screen time on forex pairs...
Yes, that's where a tick chart could be useful if you're really interested in them, just to get into the reversal at the right time or get out on the first signs it isn't going to work out.
  • #98
  • Edited 5:24am Feb 19, 2021 5:07am | Edited 5:24am
It is insane at what length I went to avoid the obvious stuff. I have traded NQ cfd for over 2 years and focussed on building crappy strategy with EMA's, MACD, stoch and other indicators that I can't even remember. I learnt mql4 along the way lol (it's just a dumbed down version of C++). I don't even know what I really learnt there when I think back and almost cringe about it.

I would focus on hard R:R rules, ignoring everything that the market was screaming at me. At some point I was cursing at the monitor daily (yes I am ashamed to admit) and not knowing what to do anymore, feeling so lost...

More often than not market would ride in my direction a bit and reverse to hit my stop. Then reverse again and hit where my TP was initially. It felt as if the market was trolling me, and that I could not rely on anything. I have failed 10 000 times. I was in this panicky state, not learning from my mistakes and trying to push a square peg in a round hole. But everytime, after calming down from this crazy environment and seemingly impossible task of trading, I picked myself up and motivated myself back into the game because I knew and still know there's a way to do it.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #99
  • Edited Feb 20, 2021 9:07am Feb 19, 2021 2:35pm | Edited Feb 20, 2021 9:07am
Someone sent me a message but for some reason I can't answer back...

For whom it may concern.. Let's just say I can relate to what you said a 1000 times. And also, concerning the second part, something is missing I feel (in th sense that i cant open it)...

Or is it just a good old trading riddle?

20-02 edit : Thank you!
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #100
  • Feb 20, 2021 6:36am Feb 20, 2021 6:36am
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Seems you think to much. Do not complicate that to rocket science. I know trading is something that can build 1001 illusions in one trading day. But the core will never change! If buyer and seller for a period happy with price, it is something we can use to our favour. Let the big players fight and wait. Wait for the hard punches every corner give the other, like a great boxing fight. Like watching rocky. If one side is making ground you will see this first! You will see this side leading. You are happy with the hard fighting champ. Often the defence increase after the champ makes ground. In the last phase we will see hard knock outs. Sometime a fight takes several hard punches to defeat the last resistance. Sometime a fight also turn in the opposite direction. Respect this great result from both. Calm down and watch for a new fight. It will for sure come.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
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