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My way of seeing the market

  • #61
  • Feb 6, 2021 11:46am Feb 6, 2021 11:46am
It is not easy to make a clean start after years. To understand the market is not tough, tough is to respect that trading is waiting and focus. My basic understanding about how the marekt is working, i draw in following pictures.
Market move from zone to zone. If you see a straight movement in m1, can be end as revisit of a range in a higher timeframe.

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I do not overview all avaible timeframes, because every new information can destroy my possible trade. If i filter more and more, the less trades i have. I search for a accepable minimum of things that must go in line.

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Trade what you SEE and NOT what eventually will be!!! Let price make the work first, let create a picture for you first. Pick up the possible sweet spots and wait. Have a clear set of minimum filter for your entry and do not trade if you have nothing as you before fixed. Do NOT search for uncountable entry models. If your picked filter worked in the past and you evaluate as that thing you able to see, why in the world you are going unsure? Is trading not at all unsure?

I give you today another filter and also today i say, look if you can see this and search the chart for things you can spot easily.
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Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #62
  • Edited 2:32pm Feb 6, 2021 2:08pm | Edited 2:32pm
Quoting MichaelSch
It is not easy to make a clean start after years. To understand the market is not tough, tough is to respect that trading is waiting and focus.
It is hard to make a clean start straight at the beginning! Let alone after years... But I tend to think a period of wandering in the dark and trying things is a common occurence in this business. The length it takes to focus on the "right" stuff depends on each person though. And some don't even get there. Some after finding out what it takes just give up! And yes, realizing that not every moment is created equal in the market.. I tend to agree that market is simple, but it's complex in its simplicity because every day is different, every moment is unique, and it can be dazzling! But I think once we know what we are after and don't hesitate to enter and exit, things really get simpler.

I'm "comfortable" being where I'm at right now. I know that I have finally made the right decision to cut so many things and focus on the details of price. I also know that wether I "make it" or not depends on the efforts I put in (even though I sometimes let fear creep in).

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Let price make the work first, let create a picture for you first.

This is something I need to work on. I find it's true and I need to stop wanting to trade all the time. Trading can be extremely rewarding, thus addictive in a sense (at least for me). I need to keep working on controling my impulse to load and FOMO by rewarding other behaviors. Signals come and go at different times and it's part of the things I have zero control over in this business. Sometimes there are 10 signals one after the other and I need to be prepared to take them all. Other times, it's dry for almost the entire day. I have no control over that.

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why in the world you are going unsure? Is trading not at all unsure?

Because I'm afraid. It's the first thing I need to work on. Take the trade based on the setup, not how I feel on the fear scale.

For JensG :

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I tend to leave a little more confirmational distance before going short. In other words, this is one situation where I trade my odds in for a little bit more probability. The sweet spot I was talking about.
In this context, would your stop for the trade become wider? Or simply exit elsewhere than the top/bot if things go wrong.

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But I still prefer clear ranges with little disturbance in the legs.

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I must add that I pay great attention to the live development of the candles
What do you look for in the live price action? I noticed that sometimes price starts moving really fast at some area suggesting sequences of transactions. Also, sometimes it is kind of bouncy. I guess it is really hard to explain in words because it all happens very fast...

Concerning what you explained about the channel, I think it makes lots of sense and I think I understand what you were showing. Basically, if price reaches a level and one side seem to be in charge strongly, It can be an indication to "pass" on the reversal/wait more confirmation (sweet spot) or to discard the level altogether and follow the action. Because chances are that the level will not hold. Conversely, if we reach a level and price did it in one straight line or so, it is more likely to reverse at reversal signals.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #63
  • Feb 7, 2021 7:39am Feb 7, 2021 7:39am
Quoting MichaelSch
It is not easy to make a clean start after years. To understand the market is not tough, tough is to respect that trading is waiting and focus. My basic understanding about how the marekt is working, i draw in following pictures. Market move from zone to zone. If you see a straight movement in m1, can be end as revisit of a range in a higher timeframe. {image} I do not overview all avaible timeframes, because every new information can destroy my possible trade. If i filter more and more, the less trades i have. I search for a accepable minimum of...
That s what I call a golden post. Even after more than a decade of live trading I learned something new.
Well done.
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #64
  • Feb 7, 2021 9:33am Feb 7, 2021 9:33am
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} That s what I call a golden post. Even after more than a decade of live trading I learned something new. Well done. Guido
Thank for these words.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #65
  • Feb 8, 2021 1:14am Feb 8, 2021 1:14am
Hi Jaymontos,

I find keeping my feet flat on the ground while making important decisions helps to level my mind.

Hope this helps!

Ken
  • #66
  • Feb 8, 2021 4:03am Feb 8, 2021 4:03am
Quoting Jaymantos
To be honest I am a bit overwhelmed and feeling stuck right now.
It's alot of info to take in and easy to get confused and frustrated so I'll do my best to put it all together so you can get it.

First of all you should be concentrated in the immediate price action are we in a sideways range channel? or a diagonal channel? This is the first thing you need to verify to immediately get an idea on what you should be doing.

Here are two images so you can get an idea how differently it should look, and the type of entries you should be taking highlighted yellow.

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After you get in the habit of knowing which direction makes more sense to take when you open a chart, that's when you can start to examine what Michael is saying. these are slightly bigger change of directions. I used his image below to try and explain.

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If you are in a bullish or bearish channel, of course you will see possibilities to try and catch the reversal of the channel, but you need to be careful as its often harder (since you are in a channel, and like Jens said he doesn't bet against the direction of a channel) maybe you should wait for price to for a sideways range first instead of diving into what looks like a good reversal early trade, you can still do it, but be more careful with your stops and move to breakeven sooner. example below with the blue lines.

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Hopefully that helps more.
  • #67
  • Edited 6:45am Feb 8, 2021 5:32am | Edited 6:45am
Quoting venividivici
{quote} It's alot of info to take in and easy to get confused and frustrated so I'll do my best to put it all together so you can get it. First of all you should be concentrated in the immediate price action are we in a sideways range channel? or a diagonal channel? This is the first thing you need to verify to immediately get an idea on what you should be doing. Here are two images so you can get an idea how differently it should look, and the type of entries you should be taking highlighted yellow. {image} {image} After you get in the habit of...
Thanks for the explanation, yes it helps! I think I need to focus on assessing this for the moment (sideways range channel or diagonal channel).


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No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #68
  • Feb 8, 2021 12:18pm Feb 8, 2021 12:18pm
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No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #69
  • Edited 7:52am Feb 9, 2021 6:42am | Edited 7:52am
Unfortunately this one ended up being a B/E.

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I saw price "stall" watching it live and I should have close it then for a nice little profit. It is the accumulation of this type of greediness/fear that puts me in the hole at the end of the day!


Here's one that I manually TP'd. I guess I need to always be careful at both ends of the trade and ready to manually exit. Price often reaches target price by a pip or 2 then reverses.

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That is overall so far...

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I would display pips but there's no way to do that in mt4.

"does it look like it's bouncing"
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #70
  • Feb 9, 2021 9:27am Feb 9, 2021 9:27am
Quoting Jaymantos
Unfortunately this one ended up being a B/E. {image} I saw price "stall" watching it live and I should have close it then for a nice little profit. It is the accumulation of this type of greediness/fear that puts me in the hole at the end of the day! Here's one that I manually TP'd. I guess I need to always be careful at both ends of the trade and ready to manually exit. Price often reaches target price by a pip or 2 then reverses. {image} That is overall so far... {image} I would display pips but there's no...
Good..I would have taken the same trades, now you have something you can work with that works, keep repeating it
  • #71
  • Edited 11:46am Feb 9, 2021 11:17am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting venividivici
{quote} Good..I would have taken the same trades, now you have something you can work with that works, keep repeating it
I am glad you guys helped me see clearer. It's very awesome and I'm grateful.

Having a "process" to work with is how I'll really see improvements, doing the same thing every day and developping trade management protocol along the way.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #72
  • Feb 10, 2021 6:02am Feb 10, 2021 6:02am
Hello everyone, I would like to ask you something.

Currently I follow a strategy that would usually give me enough time to try scalping in M1 with a "technique" (of my own) that I have been thinking about for months, but in short it would be a "fast IN" / "fast OUT" or in other words " less is more ", similar to what is stated here (I only work with the EURUSD).

I want to open a new account to test this. The typical spread with my broker is usually 1.0-1.3 pips (in a standard account), but I am wondering if it would be better to open an account with a spread of 0-0.3 and pay a commission.

What do you think? Many thanks in advance.

regards

PS: Sorry Jaymantos if you consider that your journal is not the best place for these questions, but it seemed to me that it may concern.
Newbie trader
  • #73
  • Edited 7:53am Feb 10, 2021 7:14am | Edited 7:53am
Quoting fex
Hello everyone, I would like to ask you something. Currently I follow a strategy that would usually give me enough time to try scalping in M1 with a "technique" (of my own) that I have been thinking about for months, but in short it would be a "fast IN" / "fast OUT" or in other words " less is more ", similar to what is stated here (I only work with the EURUSD). I want to open a new account to test this. The typical spread with my broker is usually 1.0-1.3 pips (in a standard account), but I am wondering if it would be better to open an account...
I think what you want is lowest cost of operation in the end so you would need to compare between brokers. Depending on where you are in the world there are different options but it's worth trying them out to see.

That being said, I think if your location is accepted as a client, Pepperstne is your best bet for scalping with the razor account. Unfortunately if you are in North America like me, you cannot go with them and would need to find an alternative. I am currently using Darwinex (but always open to other options). They have a spread + commission model. Typically (I checked) the spread on E/U is the lowest amongst all pairs, almost as low as pepper (but not exactly as low, as a general rule I'd say Pepper varies between 0-3 and Darw 0-5). For 0.01 lot, Darwinex E/U is $0.06 commission and Pepper razor is $0.07.

Here's an Darwinex live example (I put all the major/crosses and separated them by spread, top row above NDX are the best to trade on Darwinex and it's similar elsewhere also):

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Best spreads on Darw are E/U, G/U, A/U and U/J.

And here's pepper demo as a reference :

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Keep in mind this is a picture and that spread can vary greatly on a given pair during a day.

I appreciate you decided to jump in, thank you.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #74
  • Edited 9:54am Feb 10, 2021 9:24am | Edited 9:54am
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I decided to trade from 5 to 11 EST. It's a nice compromise between waking up in the middle of the night (2:30 in the winter here when London opens) and having nice liquidity to trade (because of London/NY overlap). At 11 EST there's the WMR fix... then volume drops significantly after that. Those two CHF trades are a nice way to end the day today!
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #75
  • Feb 10, 2021 9:35am Feb 10, 2021 9:35am
Quoting Jaymantos
{quote} I think what you want is lowest cost of operation in the end so you would need to compare between brokers. Depending on where you are in the world there are different options but it's worth trying them out to see. That being said, I think if your location is accepted as a client, Pepperstne is your best bet for scalping with the razor account. Unfortunately if you are in North America like me, you cannot go with them and would need to find an alternative. I am currently using Darwinex (but always open to other options). They have a spread...
Thank you very much for the reply, that's perfect because my current broker is Pepper.

Well I'm done, now it's time to try it.

regards
Newbie trader
  • #76
  • Edited 3:29am Feb 11, 2021 3:17am | Edited 3:29am
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Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #77
  • Edited 5:42am Feb 11, 2021 4:34am | Edited 5:42am
Quoting MichaelSch
{image} {image}{image}
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No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #78
  • Edited 10:48am Feb 11, 2021 6:26am | Edited 10:48am
One of the many problem (idea/deep held belief) concerning trading that I have is concerning the "mechanical" aspect (in its purely mathematical boolean form). The big reason that deep down I have a lot of trouble being confident in mechanical rules is that it can be coded by anyone... In fact many people (on this very forum) spend years programming backtested systems that fail on the live market.

I have this deeply held belief that trading should be discretionary, but the question is : to what extent...

I clearly cannot go and trade on a whim. I believe I need to have something that I am looking for, (like some here pointed out). I am watching out for ranges/channels to scalp them and it is the first step in the right direction.

But I still find myself stuck in the mechanical/discretionary dilemma. If what I'm looking for and my whole strategy is too easy to pick up by a computer, there is no edge in it (so I think as of right now). But if it's too blurry and discretionary it becomes "random"!


--------------------
On a completely different note (although it is related to trading), I just realize something. It is related to Veni’s thread and also what JensG said (“If you think you can control more than the loss, you are lying to yourself as a trader.” )

I don’t know if I’m interpreting too much, but it made me think.

Each trade is a bet and each trade has a cost, i.e. the capital at risk on each trade. With this pre-determined risk, each time I enter the market is akin to buying a ticket for a chance to win a prize.

If I’m risking 2$ per trade, I see it like buying a 2$ ticket for a chance to win a little bit more, let’s say 5$.

(Of course the win rate and risk to reward ratio enters in the equation in every bet. Typical bets, for example in a casino, has negative expectancy over a sequence of bets. That I am not interested in. As soon as I know it is mathematically rigged, I have no desire to play. What is interesting about trading is being able to stack these numbers and consequently becoming the casino, if it makes any sense.)

The “beauty” in trading is that I can access information about the other punters and try to outcompete them. Basically, I could try to find a spot in the chart where price is likely to reverse fast before going in my direction and I am not only speaking of a reversal pattern even though it's part of the equation. This could potentially give me the opportunity to pay for my ticket quickly and “secure” my place in the bet for minimal cost, or at least give me better expectancy over a sequence of bets. This place I have an idea where it is (for me anyway). We all see the same thing. For example, after a reversal candle/pattern has played out it will often retrace because a lot of people are betting there, thus a lot of stops are stacked within the vicinity. As they get blown out, it provides liquidity.

Broadly speaking, entering where it is emotionally draining and where it feels risky often correlates with better trading results, but it does not mean it is the be-all and end-all of trading. It is simply something I am interested to think about deeper.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #79
  • Feb 11, 2021 9:54am Feb 11, 2021 9:54am
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The first retrace often gets me! The pros are probably reloading there lol.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #80
  • Feb 11, 2021 1:33pm Feb 11, 2021 1:33pm
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Good job Jay, keep it up!
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