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My way of seeing the market

  • #21
  • Jan 29, 2021 8:55am Jan 29, 2021 8:55am
Today's trade.

"Strong break, pullback, load"

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Here's the same chart zoomed out (to better see the levels).

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It does look bad in retrospect... But the setup was there!


What I like with taking only one trade a day is it allows me to pass. I don't feel pressured into taking everything. I just need to choose a good one I feel confident about. And that will make my learning skyrocket in my opinion. Because it's impossible to learn while trying to load everywhere. It just does not stick and the stress levels are out of whack.

On another note, I'm kind of dreading the first day I'll make a loss though (but I really dont need to and I know it on an intellectual level). Because then I'll really be put to the test. Losses trigger an urge to make it back. But I'll stick to my rule of one a day. It's just part of the business to lose sometimes!
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #22
  • Edited 12:10pm Jan 29, 2021 11:42am | Edited 12:10pm
Don't zoom in too much or you will miss alot of important levels.

Just a short example

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The price is high on the minute chart with no visible price on the left, but...

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  • #23
  • Edited 1:53pm Jan 29, 2021 1:33pm | Edited 1:53pm
I wonder if you treat them the same when far away v.s. very close? Would the level become more "blurry" (bigger overall zone, i.e. takes more time to decide where to go next and/or spike more out of the zone, etc.) when it's like a few days ago or even months ago?

I find that it interacts but less "to the pip" if it makes sense... Let me know if I got this wrong.

Thanks for the reply!
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #24
  • Jan 29, 2021 2:09pm Jan 29, 2021 2:09pm
Quoting Jaymantos
I wonder if you treat them the same when far away v.s. very close? Would the level become more "blurry" (bigger overall zone, i.e. takes more time to decide where to go next and/or spike more out of the zone, etc.) when it's like a few days ago or even months ago? I find that it interacts but less "to the pip" if it makes sense... Let me know if I got this wrong. Thanks for the reply!
Yes usually it doesn't bounce to the pip, but you will still find a few examples each day that it does, (to the pip or not, does it look like its bouncing off that level? all that matters) sometimes if I can't see any nearby levels on the left I might look on the 5 minute just out of curiosity to make sense of the situation, and a lot of times it turns out a bigger level on the 5m is nearby. (but I definitely don't care about or look at levels higher than that lol).
  • #25
  • Jan 29, 2021 2:25pm Jan 29, 2021 2:25pm
Quoting venividivici
{quote} Yes usually it doesn't bounce to the pip, but you will still find a few examples each day that it does, (to the pip or not, does it look like its bouncing off that level? all that matters) sometimes if I can't see any nearby levels on the left I might look on the 5 minute just out of curiosity to make sense of the situation, and a lot of times it turns out a bigger level on the 5m is nearby. (but I definitely don't care about or look at levels higher than that lol).
Ok thanks! I feel I'm developing an eye for it more and more.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #26
  • Edited 9:25am Feb 1, 2021 9:05am | Edited 9:25am
I have found that for me, frustration is the most destructive force in the market.

The chart was a bit unclear from the start to me, I feel pressure to load (pressure that i put on myself because there's no obligation to load at the open or anywhere else). The market opens and it gives signs of going up to the pre market highs target. I prepare to go long as the price exit most recent highs on the left with force. But market prints a huge bull bar eating up my potential profits without making the pullback I want to see before loading. FOMO starts to engage. I load on a small intra-bar pullback at the next high, the setup feels far-fetched. Price goes down. The whole trade feels wrong. I think it was a sloppy trade, but easy to say after the fact...

Finally, my stop is not hit but I manually closed. Price then goes back up in an instant and exactly where I was targeting! It Triggers huge frustration and this is usually one of the reason I will start over trading, I think it's called "tilt" in poker.

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I was'nt really confident in this chart from the get go. To me there was too many levels stacked in a tiny spot. I tried to make something out of it but I was still not really feeling it, ultimatelly I loaded on something I was'nt really confident in because of fearing of missing out on the open volume and pre market highs.

Now I will sit on my hands until tomorrow! I am in the exact spot I was afraid of being, and after writing all this and cooling down a bit, it's not so bad.


Also, here's a little comparison with future's data.. The round numbers are not at the same place.. Future's chart hit the whole number and reversed! The cfd & future charts are shifted by 130 points, but they do exactly the same thing. The spread and bars look equivalent after checking both charts side by side for a an hour or two. I am planning on starting trading the micro emini instead of the cfd. I hope it's legal to post a future chart and I'll take it down if requested....

Future
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cfd
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(Picture taken a few minutes apart...)
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #27
  • Edited 11:32am Feb 1, 2021 10:32am | Edited 11:32am
Hello,

i think you are a little in trouble with the lines and drawings on your chart. Every new fixed point will something enter in the trading idea. After less such points you become a undefined unclear setup. At the same chart you can see important stuff from many timeframes at once. Which of these informations are important for the picked timeframe and which are can ignored because has no meaning for the actual story?

The most important to become profitable is to ignore most of the things that are around. Search the charts after that YOU can see and build your trading around that. It make no sense to want trade that way other do if you are not able to see it the same way. Respect that part and move on. For sure you can also see the chart your way and be profitable with it.

Here something that i can see from your chart ... means notyou must go that way.

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.. and here my two last days view from eurusd in M1.

Yesterday ...
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Today ...
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Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #28
  • Edited 11:54am Feb 1, 2021 11:44am | Edited 11:54am
Quote
i think you are a little in trouble with the lines and drawings on your chart. Every new fixed point will something enter in the trading idea. After less such points you become a undefined unclear setup.

Ok, thank you for pointing it out. So I still have way too many lines in your opinion?

Quote
At the same chart you can see important stuff from many timeframes at once.

So when the M1 is not clear, I should jump on M5 as Veni pointed out? (To make better sense of what is going on) Because this morning I kind of knew this kind of price structure typically lead me nowhere because I see too many levels where price can interact. Should I have go higher timeframe to try make more sense of that range?

Quote
Search the charts after that YOU can see and build your trading around that.

understood!
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #29
  • Feb 1, 2021 11:49am Feb 1, 2021 11:49am
Quoting Jaymantos
{quote} Ok, thank you for pointing it out. So I still have way too many lines in your opinion? {quote} So when the M1 is not clear, I should jump on M5 as Veni pointed out? (To make better sense of what is going on) Because this morning I kind of knew this kind of price structure typically lead me nowhere because I see too many levels where price can interact. Should I have go higher timeframe to try make more sense of that range?
I agree remove all that crap it seems useful but it will only distract you. Regarding going up timeframes you don't need to do that, It was just an idea... if you don't see anything just look at other pairs or simply wait for price action to construct something...keep your charts and mind simple.
  • #30
  • Feb 1, 2021 1:47pm Feb 1, 2021 1:47pm
This was my last trade today.

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  • #31
  • Feb 1, 2021 2:54pm Feb 1, 2021 2:54pm
Quoting venividivici
This was my last trade today. {image}
Nice trade !

That's the "story" i see (after the fact):

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No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #32
  • Edited 8:22am Feb 2, 2021 7:50am | Edited 8:22am
I have found that ultimately, what I feel comfortable doing is trading a zoomed in chart because it allows me to see the interactions very closely. I start with the chart zoomed out to the max, even move it a bit around to catch potential levels. Then I gradually zoom in and this is where I see the price action the most clearly and the most useful for loading.

NQ is extremely liquid, if not the most liquid instrument in existence (meaning the order flow is constant, not that it's the heaviest in terms of money traded). I stopped using the 10s chart because it was too insane for me but one could use it instead of the m1 on this instrument. This is only my opinion.

Another particularity in my opinion, is that pre market volume is so low compared to NY session that the levels created before dont play that much of a role, except the extremes of the day so far. Really, trading pre market is not the same universe. Once the NY session opens, it's mostly over with pre market narrative. It's like a new chart is born.

I start like this :
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I trade like this :
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No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #33
  • Edited 8:52am Feb 2, 2021 8:38am | Edited 8:52am
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today's trade

Strong initial bull push outside of the mid level. I dont load immediately because it could turn there (action/reaction). It does go back down and find support in the wicks. I wait for another sign bfore loading up, which is price coming back up above the mid level and pulling back at it. It all happens really fast, intra bar.

So today is over, loading-wise. I will keep watching doing the 30mins/10 mins pause thing.

As the market is the ultimate troll, it kept going up for another 500 ticks in a straight line!... I don't care, I find it funny nowadays...
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No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #34
  • Edited 10:10am Feb 3, 2021 9:07am | Edited 10:10am
Today's trade was a loser.


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The idea is that we had vigorously broken the bottom level, and price pulled back to that level, loaded. I put my stop above the wick of a previous bear candle highlighted in the upmost rectangle.

Unfortunately, it was a loser. What is funny though, is that from the open we touched every location I was assuming would get touched one after the other. Then when I load, it goes against me straight... Another thing to laugh about (once I come to my senses)!

Right now I am frustrated. I am afraid also.

At least I am fullfilling my goal of one trade per day until friday (and probably for a bit longer). This is focussing on the process and a step in the right direction in my opinion.

Every trade I took this week, they stuck with me for the whole day because they were the only trade of the day. I have had time to think about them, be it a winner or a loser. Now I think that I am jumping the gun a bit, considering I have the whole day to take a trade, and am always trying to catch first few minutes of the session volume. I have approx. 2h before volume dries up and if not it often picks up again later in the p.m. I need to relax. The trade needs to come from a confidence place, not an emotional place (FOMO, frustration,etc.). I ened to realize that it is ok to not take a trade even for the whole day.

There are trades, they just jump right at you. You just enter, know where to put the stop, know where to let go of it... I know I am in no obligation to load anywhere. but I still have that emotional cloud somehow.

The process is all that matters.

Inserted Video


This is the best video I ever listened to (ignore the title lol), explaining the process of achieving. We always hear "Focus on the process". This guy explains the science behind it.

"High-achievers know to attach dopamine to the effort process".

(the actual talk on achieving starts at approx 45 mins in)
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #35
  • Feb 3, 2021 10:15am Feb 3, 2021 10:15am
Seems you have too many picked up in the past. If something not work for you, drop it. If you can not see things other can see, means not you not able to become profitable. Sometimes trader can better trade a nearly black/white system, because of fixed filter that must be filled first. I give you an idea, but do not follow, if you have trouble with it. Take you not under deep pressure.

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As you can see i mark small ranges, price move sideways. I filter it by the first candle (ignore the wicks) and minimum two candles who are not able to break above or under it. If in future one candle is forming outside it i place a order above or under it.

As you can see, it will also work. Take your time and your own filter, study the naked chart your way.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #36
  • Feb 3, 2021 10:58am Feb 3, 2021 10:58am
Regarding this one trade a day thing...are you a scalper or longer term trader? I'm not sure it's the best option but in the end its your choice. Put it this way, I can start the day with a few straight losses in a row if im really having a bad trading day but still be able to pull back at the end of the day with other trades, What happens if you lose today, and then tomorrow...and then the day after? It's not going to feel good..and your confidence will drop, but it didn't have to end that way. Maybe it's because you're trading a highly volatile pair with lots of movement that you feel the need to do this, personally my goal is small pips several times a day and im happy with that. (I don't like very high volatility on a chart..to me its dangerous lol).
  • #37
  • Edited 11:53am Feb 3, 2021 11:22am | Edited 11:53am
Quoting MichaelSch
Seems you have too many picked up in the past. If something not work for you, drop it. If you can not see things other can see, means not you not able to become profitable. Sometimes trader can better trade a nearly black/white system, because of fixed filter that must be filled first. I give you an idea, but do not follow, if you have trouble with it. Take you not under deep pressure. {image} As you can see i mark small ranges, price move sideways. I filter it by the first candle (ignore the wicks) and minimum two candles who are not able to break...
Yes... too many trades per day in the past, which probably come from not narrowing down my trade criterias enough when I think about it. Thanks for showing me this idea. You load once the candle closes below/above the range?

So I need to filter my trades better....


Quoting venividivici
Regarding this one trade a day thing...are you a scalper or longer term trader? I'm not sure it's the best option but in the end its your choice. Put it this way, I can start the day with a few straight losses in a row if im really having a bad trading day but still be able to pull back at the end of the day with other trades, What happens if you lose today, and then tomorrow...and then the day after? It's not going to feel good..and your confidence will drop, but it didn't have to end that way. Maybe it's because you're trading a highly volatile...
Ideally, I enjoy trading a couple times a day (let's say below 10-15 trades). But maybe as you say it might not be for me if I always tilt (I found this is the best way of illustrating it : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilt_(poker)). The one trade a day thing is to try to reset my brain and start over small then slowly add trades if I stay on track.

Perhaps you are right that the highly volatile pair does not play in my favor... For some reason I just like that it moves a lot.

In the end, I just want to be profitable scalping a few times a day because, let's be honest here, I like the action.

What I'm somewhat afraid of is that maybe my inclination towards fast market and scalping is preventing me from seeing another way that would work better for me.
No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #38
  • Feb 3, 2021 11:31am Feb 3, 2021 11:31am
Quoting Jaymantos
{quote} Yes... too many trades per day in the past, which probably come from not narrowing down my trade criterias enough when I think about it. Thanks for showing me this idea. You load once the candle closes below/above the range? So I need to filter my trades better.... {quote} Ideally, I enjoy trading a couple times a day (let's say below 10-15 trades). But maybe as you say it might not be for me if I always tilt (I found this is the best way of illustrating it : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilt_(poker)). The one trade a day thing...
I place the order above or under the candle that break out of the range. I normal use more my few lines in M1, but sometimes if i have more time, i trade this also. Please get me right. Watch the naked chart for things you can clearly see. The only way to go.

... mostly that way.

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Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #39
  • Feb 3, 2021 11:45am Feb 3, 2021 11:45am
Quote
Please get me right. Watch the naked chart for things you can clearly see. The only way to go.

No tree, it is said, can grow to heaven unless its roots reach down to hell
  • #40
  • Feb 3, 2021 11:54am Feb 3, 2021 11:54am
Quoting venividivici
my goal is small pips several times a day and im happy with that. (I don't like very high volatility on a chart..to me its dangerous lol).
Which makes perfect sense. Making money as a trader is a matter of mathematics - money is just a number after all. Small profits also require small losses, otherwise you are trading yourself into a pit from which you can no longer get out. Losses that no longer bear any relation to profits are fatal. Avoiding volatile days, or let's say days with a high risk of explosion, is pragmatic tail-risk reduction. By the way, this is also all I need an economic news calendar for: to know when it is better not to work. Be a trader, not a storm chaser mate.
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