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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #83,561
  • Feb 2, 2021 6:14pm Feb 2, 2021 6:14pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} No, not yet. Both the daily, and the 4hr show breaches to the north. 105.6 perhaps. IMO that is.
Spoke too soon, I now realize.
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #83,562
  • Feb 3, 2021 2:42am Feb 3, 2021 2:42am
#USDJPY / H4
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  • #83,563
  • Feb 3, 2021 6:54am Feb 3, 2021 6:54am
Thanks for the chart showing your EW count, Ayax.TSS.

I also think the zigzag correction is almost over, after which we'll see the downtrend resume...
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #83,564
  • Feb 4, 2021 9:16am Feb 4, 2021 9:16am
Approaching 200-DMA, will it break?
USD unstoppable!
  • #83,565
  • Feb 4, 2021 9:37am Feb 4, 2021 9:37am
Hello all.

Well, I've been stopped out of m USDJPY and CADJPY shorts. The USDJPY shorts alone cost me about 40pips per position and a bit more on the CADJPY front..

My overall market bias has changed and I no longer thing that USDJPY will drop to 95 as commented before. I think (and hope, as I 'd like to enter long at better prices) that it wallow around these levels for a bit, forming a range, before it goes much higher, to new highs
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  • #83,566
  • Edited 4:29pm Feb 4, 2021 4:15pm | Edited 4:29pm
Quote
{quote} BOJ has said they want to keep USDJPY above 101. Interesting, USDJPY also fell to 101 when Trump got elected and now he's leaving..

To add on to this:

Take this into consideration, every time Powell speaks USDJPY responds,

As M1 smashes records, the central banks are trying to figure out how to get this money back into the economy. The economy itself cant do it, its coming from the FED. THe FED wants the USD to get stronger, it seems to be working. Price will find a retrace spot but dont expect, we have a 1400 point window underneath. I dont really think its even gonna touch that. 106.7....100%

2 scenario's
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #83,567
  • Feb 4, 2021 5:17pm Feb 4, 2021 5:17pm
Short to 103.330. 105.685 is my point of no return where I will hedge it if necessary. If history repeats we may hold around here til Monday with a spike on tomorrows news after some Asia and Euro profit taking.
If we had arrived here tomorrow right before the USD numbers I would say we are bearish in the range, but as we got here "early" we may go further after a dip.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,568
  • Feb 4, 2021 5:22pm Feb 4, 2021 5:22pm
Maintain the same outlook

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  • #83,569
  • Feb 4, 2021 6:47pm Feb 4, 2021 6:47pm
Shorts beware. Possible bumpy road ahead. When I see this above 85, I look for stop hunts. Usually 10-20 pips, then price turns around 93-95% in the biased direction. This current move lower signals to me that the spike upward will push a little past these highs we just hit. At these levels it usually travels a bit. 103.570 pause before i get out.
Current level..

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In other news... Gaps.... An overzealous trader jumped the line at 17:00EST. They closed the gap, then at 18:00 they faked it north. Convinced a few, then took their money. Looking for us to hit the open once more before we go south to 105 waiting on news.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,570
  • Feb 4, 2021 7:00pm Feb 4, 2021 7:00pm
Too quick. 105.620 incoming...
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,571
  • Feb 5, 2021 7:41am Feb 5, 2021 7:41am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Short to 103.330. 105.685 is my point of no return where I will hedge it if necessary. If history repeats we may hold around here til Monday with a spike on tomorrows news after some Asia and Euro profit taking. If we had arrived here tomorrow right before the USD numbers I would say we are bearish in the range, but as we got here "early" we may go further after a dip.
See... right before the report we went back up. Just a little past the previous high...
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,572
  • Feb 5, 2021 7:42am Feb 5, 2021 7:42am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Shorts beware. Possible bumpy road ahead. When I see this above 85, I look for stop hunts. Usually 10-20 pips, then price turns around 93-95% in the biased direction. This current move lower signals to me that the spike upward will push a little past these highs we just hit. At these levels it usually travels a bit. 103.570 pause before i get out. Current level.. {image} In other news... Gaps.... An overzealous trader jumped the line at 17:00EST. They closed the gap, then at 18:00 they faked it north. Convinced a few, then took their money. Looking...
Just gonna put this right chere
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,573
  • Feb 5, 2021 3:47pm Feb 5, 2021 3:47pm
Well this was a fun week. Hope everyone came out the other side unscathed. Looking for another gap down on Sunday. Depending on the Stimulus news we may retrace up again. I don't think they are packed for the trip yet. Let's see.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,574
  • Feb 6, 2021 8:08pm Feb 6, 2021 8:08pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Well this was a fun week. Hope everyone came out the other side unscathed. Looking for another gap down on Sunday. Depending on the Stimulus news we may retrace up again. I don't think they are packed for the trip yet. Let's see.
It could go either way for sure.

My hope, of course, is for the much-awaited reversal to the downside to take place already.
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #83,575
  • Feb 7, 2021 3:54am Feb 7, 2021 3:54am
Quoting doji
{quote} It could go either way for sure. My hope, of course, is for the much-awaited reversal to the downside to take place already.
It will, but we are taking another trip to the highs first in my opinion. We have a shoulder and a head so far.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,576
  • Feb 7, 2021 4:25pm Feb 7, 2021 4:25pm
A lot happening around 105.5. We gapped. Now we lure in some longs.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,577
  • Feb 7, 2021 4:29pm Feb 7, 2021 4:29pm
Good spot for a trap. If we go long to the highs, won't be so bad.

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,578
  • Edited 5:01pm Feb 7, 2021 4:51pm | Edited 5:01pm
Who are we trading with? Know thine enemy..
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,579
  • Feb 8, 2021 2:45am Feb 8, 2021 2:45am
Quoting markofrose
Im shooting for 107.XX who's with me? haha
Still on the way.
  • #83,580
  • Feb 8, 2021 4:39am Feb 8, 2021 4:39am
Sorry that this isn't directly related to this currency pair. There looks to be a potential head and shoulders formation on CHF/JPY. Both are safe haven currencies which are following a similar uptrend but CHF is still trending up against JPY. Does anyone have any thoughts on this being a possible reversal? Thanks.
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