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  • #141
  • Jan 6, 2021 6:45pm Jan 6, 2021 6:45pm
Quoting Spikehunter
Just finished reading through the ebook. The one thing I get from it is "drawdown". It seems that regardless of where the price was going the drawdown was just an accepted cost of trading. Although it was mentioned that "Grail" was a trend following system I didn't see any recognition or trading stopped when the trend reversed or wasn't there. I have had a 2nd look but not seen anything. I'm always to quick with my stops, I hate losing. I have learnt quite a lot from this so thank you again.
Hi Spike, is there a question in there somewhere? cos i'm not sure lol

Drawdown is a very important part of any system. I dont think i know any 'system' that doesn't have drawdown and a failure to make adjustments when the max drawdown was breached was one thing that caused us an issue - we got the 'rabbit in the headlamps' effect when we breached 35% and in truth had no idea what to do when it did.

I don't trade systems anymore though because systems don't adapt fast enough.

PS if you are too fast with your stops, then why have them?
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #142
  • Jan 7, 2021 12:04am Jan 7, 2021 12:04am
Quoting Spikehunter
Just finished reading through the ebook. The one thing I get from it is "drawdown". It seems that regardless of where the price was going the drawdown was just an accepted cost of trading. Although it was mentioned that "Grail" was a trend following system I didn't see any recognition or trading stopped when the trend reversed or wasn't there. I have had a 2nd look but not seen anything. I'm always to quick with my stops, I hate losing. I have learnt quite a lot from this so thank you again.
Now you have me wondering, do I have to read the book again; where was the trend mentioned and how was it defined?

I thought the entry was either 40 pips above or below the London open price; is that the trend you mean?

Thanks
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #143
  • Jan 7, 2021 3:25am Jan 7, 2021 3:25am
Quoting soultrader
{quote} Hi Spike, is there a question in there somewhere? cos i'm not sure lol Drawdown is a very important part of any system. I dont think i know any 'system' that doesn't have drawdown and a failure to make adjustments when the max drawdown was breached was one thing that caused us an issue - we got the 'rabbit in the headlamps' effect when we breached 35% and in truth had no idea what to do when it did. I don't trade systems anymore though because systems don't adapt fast enough. PS if you are too fast with your stops, then why have them?
No, no question just an observation. thanks.
  • #144
  • Jan 7, 2021 3:29am Jan 7, 2021 3:29am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Now you have me wondering, do I have to read the book again; where was the trend mentioned and how was it defined? I thought the entry was either 40 pips above or below the London open price; is that the trend you mean? Thanks
Hi, Erebus, Trend was assumed, I can't see that it was measured, as GBPUSD was trending significantly at this time. When the trend stopped so did the system/strategy. If there had been some measurement of trend then perhaps the system/strategy may have performed better. Just my penny worth.
  • #145
  • Jan 7, 2021 3:43am Jan 7, 2021 3:43am
is systematic trading better than discretionary at some point? or is it the former is inferior to the latter for someone who can't deal with emotions very well.

Regards,
Raymond
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #146
  • Jan 7, 2021 4:08am Jan 7, 2021 4:08am
Quoting remonpilip
is systematic trading better than discretionary at some point? or is it the former is inferior to the latter for someone who can't deal with emotions very well. Regards, Raymond
IMHO I believe you should have a repeatable process so that it can be measured accurately and takes the emotions away. Having said that it's not that easy. Soultrader and his friends spent hours backtesting. I have spent many years trying to automate my process but there is always a problem to overcome. It keeps me interested so I'm happy.
PS I don't have time to sit in front of a screen all day, life is too short and getting shorter.
  • #147
  • Jan 7, 2021 7:14am Jan 7, 2021 7:14am
Quoting Spikehunter
{quote} Hi, Erebus, Trend was assumed, I can't see that it was measured, as GBPUSD was trending significantly at this time. When the trend stopped so did the system/strategy. If there had been some measurement of trend then perhaps the system/strategy may have performed better. Just my penny worth.
No, there was no trend assumed. you can bet that we tested it and that it didnt work. i remember a few tests based on moving averages - what we found was that the really big moves that made the system work where the big bucks came were not taken because they were mostly reversals
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #148
  • Jan 7, 2021 7:23am Jan 7, 2021 7:23am
Quoting remonpilip
is systematic trading better than discretionary at some point? or is it the former is inferior to the latter for someone who can't deal with emotions very well. Regards, Raymond
Hiya, in my experience the answer to your question is no, discretionary trading with a systematic approach is better.
if you are going to be truly systematic then you have to take every trade - and every pair etc etc uness you write in 100% solid rules all the time. I'n my experience all trading with this approach fail over time.

With discretionary trading you can have systmatic approaches though. for example, even if you used a simple ma cross then you could choose which ones to take based on the pair, the economic mood, the time of day, any related things happening in the world etc - when you take the trade (if you do) then you should generally do the same thing every time. all you need is an entry trigger to get you in, some way of getting out, and some way of handling what happens when you are wrong.

In my own trading my entry trigger is the same every time. my choice of trade is not. so i look around for something that fits my thoughts and then i wait for something to happen and then i'm in. i set a TP based on the chart but with a minimum. When it goes wrong i have another approach in how to handle it. This is discretion but with systematic methods in execution.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #149
  • Jan 7, 2021 8:40am Jan 7, 2021 8:40am
Quoting soultrader
{quote} No, there was no trend assumed. you can bet that we tested it and that it didnt work. i remember a few tests based on moving averages - what we found was that the really big moves that made the system work where the big bucks came were not taken because they were mostly reversals

Its hard to turn your exact vision into a BOT , thats all i got to say on this mate
  • #150
  • Jan 7, 2021 12:30pm Jan 7, 2021 12:30pm
Quoting soultrader
{quote} Hiya, in my experience the answer to your question is no, discretionary trading with a systematic approach is better. if you are going to be truly systematic then you have to take every trade - and every pair etc etc uness you write in 100% solid rules all the time. I'n my experience all trading with this approach fail over time. With discretionary trading you can have systmatic approaches though. for example, even if you used a simple ma cross then you could choose which ones to take based on the pair, the economic mood, the time of day,...
Your entry trigger seems to be based on waiting for something to happen and I assume it is based on the stop hunt levels, would be interesting to understand how you define the stop levels.
Trade Without Fear
  • #151
  • Jan 7, 2021 1:20pm Jan 7, 2021 1:20pm
Quoting Rubernet
{quote} Your entry trigger seems to be based on waiting for something to happen and I assume it is based on the stop hunt levels, would be interesting to understand how you define the stop levels.
if you mean how do i decide where the stops are well it's pretty simple really. ask yourself where would your stop be? - and that's what i wait for to be hit.

Important to note that i dont just put orders there - a stop hunt has a specific signature to it. creeping down to a level where the stops are is not a stop hunt. a fast move in and out of a stop area is a stop hunt because the faster the move is the less people are likely to take it the other way - some psychology there. so basically i'm watching for a fast move into the area then i'm watching a 2 min chart for an engulfer and i'm in.

I'm ALWAYS with the medium to long term trend so if i'm wrong i just know that it will come back 95% of the time. i just have patience and i'll add to the position too several times. i ought to shut up, giving away too much here lo
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #152
  • Jan 7, 2021 2:05pm Jan 7, 2021 2:05pm
Quoting soultrader
{quote} if you mean how do i decide where the stops are well it's pretty simple really. ask yourself where would your stop be? - and that's what i wait for to be hit. Important to note that i dont just put orders there - a stop hunt has a specific signature to it. creeping down to a level where the stops are is not a stop hunt. a fast move in and out of a stop area is a stop hunt because the faster the move is the less people are likely to take it the other way - some psychology there. so basically i'm watching for a fast move into the area then...
Understood more or less your approach. Thanks
If you don't mind a generic question about trend because you mentioned several times that you trade with the trend.
An ancient question:
How do you define medium/long term trend?
I guess you use some sort of indicators on different time-frames
  • #153
  • Jan 7, 2021 5:19pm Jan 7, 2021 5:19pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Understood more or less your approach. Thanks If you don't mind a generic question about trend because you mentioned several times that you trade with the trend. An ancient question: How do you define medium/long term trend? I guess you use some sort of indicators on different time-frames

just my eyes look at the daily or 4hr audusd right now - if you can't tell me the trend then you are in the wrong business
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https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #154
  • Jan 7, 2021 5:36pm Jan 7, 2021 5:36pm
let's get you thinking....

answer me this.

What would you do if every single trade you took went against you?

Before you say "i'd go the other way" - think again because those trades go against you too.

This is how to learn to trade. instead of spending your time finding the perfect entry, the perfect stop loss, the perfect take profit. Forget all that because it's pure bolocks and it's what you have been led to believe is the way to learn trading.

"What will I do if every single trade goes against me?"

If you can work out the answer to that, then the 'system' doesn't matter

Get to work
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #155
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:07am Jan 8, 2021 2:07am
Quoting soultrader
{quote} just my eyes look at the daily or 4hr audusd right now - if you can't tell me the trend then you are in the wrong business {image}
Old fashion way seems always better
  • #156
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:13am Jan 8, 2021 2:13am
Quoting soultrader
let's get you thinking.... answer me this. What would you do if every single trade you took went against you? Before you say "i'd go the other way" - think again because those trades go against you too. This is how to learn to trade. instead of spending your time finding the perfect entry, the perfect stop loss, the perfect take profit. Forget all that because it's pure bolocks and it's what you have been led to believe is the way to learn trading. "What will I do if every single trade goes against me?" If you can work out the answer to that, then...
I totally agree with your way of thinking.
I tried several ideas but never succeeded in the finding the right balance.
All my ideas resulted in being too dangerous after you objectively test them over 10 or 15 years worth of data.
Probability you managed to succeed where apparently I didn't yet.
I'm all ears if you have suggestions to the right path.
Cheers
  • #157
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:16am Jan 8, 2021 2:16am
Quoting soultrader
let's get you thinking.... answer me this. What would you do if every single trade you took went against you? Before you say "i'd go the other way" - think again because those trades go against you too. This is how to learn to trade. instead of spending your time finding the perfect entry, the perfect stop loss, the perfect take profit. Forget all that because it's pure bolocks and it's what you have been led to believe is the way to learn trading. "What will I do if every single trade goes against me?" If you...
In my opinion the answer to your question is money management
  • #158
  • Jan 8, 2021 3:39am Jan 8, 2021 3:39am
Quoting soultrader
let's get you thinking.... answer me this. What would you do if every single trade you took went against you? Before you say "i'd go the other way" - think again because those trades go against you too. This is how to learn to trade. instead of spending your time finding the perfect entry, the perfect stop loss, the perfect take profit. Forget all that because it's pure bolocks and it's what you have been led to believe is the way to learn trading. "What will I do if every single trade goes against me?" If you can work out the answer to that, then...

Go Bankrupt
  • #159
  • Jan 8, 2021 4:01am Jan 8, 2021 4:01am
Hello,

Just for inspiration, can I ask you how you got into trading and how long it took for you to realize "Oh wait, I'm making money with this!".

Cheers!
  • #160
  • Jan 8, 2021 4:23am Jan 8, 2021 4:23am
Quoting soultrader
let's get you thinking.... answer me this. What would you do if every single trade you took went against you? Before you say "i'd go the other way" - think again because those trades go against you too. This is how to learn to trade. instead of spending your time finding the perfect entry, the perfect stop loss, the perfect take profit. Forget all that because it's pure bolocks and it's what you have been led to believe is the way to learn trading. "What will I do if every single trade goes against me?" If you can work out the answer to that, then...
Thank you for the thread Soul, and book as well...Seems there is still a long way ahead for a lot of us to understand this game...
Make your own rules and stick to it.
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