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Trading Made Simple

  • #114,581
  • Jan 5, 2021 4:07pm Jan 5, 2021 4:07pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} "...with exhaustion confirmations of course..." @PixelSniper -- could you briefly explain what you look for to confirm price exhaustion, a screenshot would be most helpful. Are you really trading against yourself, or is this reversal trading?


Simply, when I open the chart I let it tell me what to do. But I believe I somehow I look for a pattern, I watch out for, also I don't try to predict the far future, just couple of next minutes or hours at best. But before that, I take a glance at the 30Minute chart, this can be done on 15 or 1 hour too, does not matter that much.
And I make a mini plan, for example I expected the US30 and XAUUSD to make a breakout,It's just guessing with the glance,and I planned to sell the ''profit taking points of the bulls'' basicly..

I focus on speculating the next posibble waves,basicly. Instead of joining the direction that is presented..

I'm better with the short positions, so I'll try to show them.
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  • #114,582
  • Jan 5, 2021 4:13pm Jan 5, 2021 4:13pm
Quoting PixelSniper
{quote} Simply, when I open the chart I let it tell me what to do. But I believe I somehow I look for a pattern, I watch out for, also I don't try to predict the far future, just couple of next minutes or hours at best. But before that, I take a glance at the 30Minute chart, this can be done on 15 or 1 hour too, does not matter that much. And I make a mini plan, for example I expected the US30 and XAUUSD to make a breakout,It's just guessing with the glance,and I planned to sell the ''profit taking points of the bulls'' basicly.. I'm better with...
@PixelSniper -- thanks for the fine explanation. I forgot you also like Bollinger Bands. Is it fair to say that, in real-time, you look for extreme price to poke its nose above / below one of the outer Bollinger Bands?

And guessing is fine. Actually, it's only kind of guessing. You do have an "edge" -- you have an idea of what constitutes an extreme price -- or "price exhaustion", as some would say. Sometimes you'll be wrong (e.g. in the case of waterfalls or "grinders"), but the times when you are right make up for that. It's a game of probabilities, right?
  • #114,583
  • Jan 5, 2021 4:18pm Jan 5, 2021 4:18pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @PixelSniper -- thanks for the fine explanation. I forgot you also like Bollinger Bands. Is it fair to say that, in real-time, you look for price to poke its nose above / below one of the outer Bollinger Bands?
Yes, It is visually really relaxing and just a moving average confirmation afterall
It makes me avoid buying or selling in wrong situations,
I'm not interested in buying a market like this for example
Need super strong confirmations to do that
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  • #114,584
  • Edited 4:35pm Jan 5, 2021 4:21pm | Edited 4:35pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Actually, it's only kind of guessing. You do have an "edge" -- you have an idea of what constitutes an extreme price -- or "price exhaustion", as some would say. Sometimes you'll be wrong (e.g. in the case of waterfalls or "grinders"), but the times when you are right make up for that. It's a game of probabilities, right?
I don't have my own edge yet but my mentor does, he has a portfolio of 93.7% win rate with 350 trades per month. (R:R 7:1-10:1)
And It is damn hard to grasp, because he just ''guesses'' and uses this style of technique,he speculates the next waves. No crossovers or whatever, pivots on screen but only to pay attention to the pivot of the day really,because some forces are buying at pivot and price won't do the reversal without really strong confirmations probably you guys have noticed it too.

Also on note: I just papertrade as a hobby added with couple of trades live for the excitement. so nothing I write here is a trading advice, I'm the one still seeking advices / ideas.
  • #114,585
  • Jan 5, 2021 5:01pm Jan 5, 2021 5:01pm
Quoting PixelSniper
{quote}

I don't have my own edge yet but my mentor does, he has a portfolio of 93.7% win rate with 350 trades per month. (R:R 7:1-10:1)

And It is damn hard to grasp, because he just ''guesses'' and uses this style of technique,he speculates the next waves. No crossovers or whatever, pivots on screen but only to pay attention to the pivot of the day really,because some forces are buying at pivot and price won't do the reversal without really strong confirmations probably you guys have noticed it too.

Also on note: I just papertrade...

(he's onto something)

stick with one pair maybe (or 3 at most) and the "guesses" are, not so much easier, but you can get a better feel for your limited 'products' in some sense.


(and with your pic above observe your BB median line - NOT to trade FROM or WITH, as such,
but as a clue as to a grinder and continued directional momentum, but only
UNTIL it starts changing lol (you can call it imminent exhaustion) - horizontal median lines invoke fakes & flips, whipsaws and shakeouts imo - always be careful

(sorry, just wandering about FF this week, I will be back to just lurking again by the end of the week for sure)
  • #114,586
  • Jan 5, 2021 5:54pm Jan 5, 2021 5:54pm
Quoting pafka
{quote} Thank you for your reply. Emmanuel, If you don´t mind, I have some question, statements. According the TMS_V19 you mentioned H4 Master Candle – within the range of MC, we should disregard any crosssignal on H4 , but I suppose, that we can trade on lower timeframe like H1? But high and low of MC serves as support/resistance. Last week low – it has created a strong support. We should consider as a strong support (resistence) also previous day high and low. Trend 2/8 sideways – anything could happen. We are in a consolidation phase, no trend....

Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi pafka Sorry, I don't have time now to reply and explain everything in detail. The pandemic is going crazy again here and with inter-state travel restrictions, this is affecting family members travelling and visits, even relocating home from one state to another get disrupted and everyday too much time spent just to get basic everyday things moving. I will reply you over the next few days with posts and with examples to help you and others reading. Many TMS traders been through this phase years ago and I recall many skype sessions where...

hi pafka

I promised to come back to this.

The gray line is Day Open Line. You will find it in this old post: { here }

Now, let's practice with GBPUSD H1 for day trading.

After you have done your H4 analysis, we drop down to H1

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With the D1 Trend 2/8 bullish and H4 TDIC1 bullish, we look for buy setups today.
I trade GU from Tokyo 3pm onwards, which is before London markets open.
Remember some of the thigs the OP talked about trading GU in his old thread. The Tokyo channel range must be above 40pips. But what if the Tokyo channel is not above 40ips? You have a decision of your own to make.

My type of setup is the same everyday - there must be Swing High/Swing Low, pick the H1 candle with the M15 closes that H1. ... MOMENTUM.
and there must be some kind of price action support&resistance, BRN/RN, PPA (previous price action0 , previous Day OHLC, dynamic S&R 10,50,200EMA (the Power of 10EMA)

Use THV CaveManager CM to do the trade management Exits. You do the buy/sell trigger.

Trade only those pairs mentioned in my other post.

Trade Weel. Trade Safe.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #114,587
  • Jan 5, 2021 6:21pm Jan 5, 2021 6:21pm
Quoting pafka
{quote} Thank you for your reply. Emmanuel, If you don´t mind, I have some question, statements. According the TMS_V19 you mentioned H4 Master Candle – within the range of MC, we should disregard any crosssignal on H4 , but I suppose, that we can trade on lower timeframe like H1? But high and low of MC serves as support/resistance. Last week low – it has created a strong support. We should consider as a strong support (resistence) also previous day high and low. Trend 2/8 sideways – anything could happen. We are in a consolidation phase, no trend....

Next, we study these 3 pairs for 4H swing trading. I do not have any CHF pairs in my watchlist.

Using the same TMS_V19 EA for the information it provides.
Even when you want to day trade any of these 3 pairs, follow this H4 as part of your top down analysis.
Trading H1 today is obvious - H4 HA candle PA is below 5EMA, and you have to deal with the volatility ATR(H4) of these 'dragon monsters'.

3 pairs, just pick one of the three. Do Not overtrade!

GA
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GC

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GN

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #114,588
  • Jan 5, 2021 6:35pm Jan 5, 2021 6:35pm
Quoting pafka
{quote} Thank you for your reply. Emmanuel, If you don´t mind, I have some question, statements. According the TMS_V19 you mentioned H4 Master Candle – within the range of MC, we should disregard any crosssignal on H4 , but I suppose, that we can trade on lower timeframe like H1? But high and low of MC serves as support/resistance. Last week low – it has created a strong support. We should consider as a strong support (resistence) also previous day high and low. Trend 2/8 sideways – anything could happen. We are in a consolidation phase, no trend....
Today' first trade when Tokyo open. Looked at AU, AJ and UJ only. Pick the best one.

Its a M30 trade entry with M15 TIMING... 2nd M15 closed the M30.

same trade management using THV CM.

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #114,589
  • Jan 5, 2021 9:24pm Jan 5, 2021 9:24pm
Quoting hasib
Forget about Candlesticks pattern, forget about supply and demand, forget about Support and resistance, forget about reversal trade, forget about ICT, forget about smart money concept, forget about order block, forget about Wyckoff method, forget EW, Forget about HM Gartley, forget about pivots. You can't be profitable with those things years and years will go, you will still remain confused. Do practice and Do what makes you profitable.
I actually agree with you and believe existence of really high win rate, mostly for strategies with 1) martingale, 2) averaging, and 3) statistics.

I am not sure if PA strategies like TMS can achieve that high % win without mixing with martingale management, but I wont say “no you cant do that” or pretending to be an expert, cause I know I’m not. If 40% DD is in plan that it is fine, just a risky strategy.

I believe everything can be possible, because I experienced it myself as a beginner trader. I explored PA strategies which can give <50% win rate but profitable because of RR. Currently I am using a statistical strategy that gives me 87% win, and about 1 losing trade in 2 years by implementing averaging. RR is 0.04 but Risk of ruin is <0.1%. Recovery is estimated to be 5months. In Live account it gave me ~25% growth since Jun 2020, which proved to me the recovery is within expectation in unlikely case of loss. My personal tolerance is 50% of that part of capital put in for this strategy, so 40% I dont see a problem if this is what other has planned to face.

An “edge” can be anything, PA, indi, management. Just need the expectancy to be >1. Of course you need to know what you are doing

How is your strategy development and FTMO challenge going?
  • #114,590
  • Jan 5, 2021 10:15pm Jan 5, 2021 10:15pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} This is a 15min chart Tekkies. I think you and I have different definition of trend. What is the purpose of the chart you posted? {quote} I saw what you did there
That is nice trend for a M15 chart

Will this be a better definition of: Those trends will make your year
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  • #114,591
  • Jan 6, 2021 12:57am Jan 6, 2021 12:57am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} {quote} hi pafka I promised to come back to this. The gray line is Day Open Line. You will find it in this old post: { here } Now, let's practice with GBPUSD H1 for day trading. After you have done your H4 analysis, we drop down to H1 {image} With the D1 Trend 2/8 bullish and H4 TDIC1 bullish, we look for buy setups today. I trade GU from Tokyo 3pm onwards, which is before London markets open. Remember some of the thigs the OP talked about trading GU in his old thread....
Thank you so much. Going to study
  • #114,592
  • Jan 6, 2021 12:59am Jan 6, 2021 12:59am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} And guessing is fine. Actually, it's only kind of guessing. You do have an "edge" -- you have an idea of what constitutes an extreme price -- or "price exhaustion", as some would say. Sometimes you'll be wrong (e.g. in the case of waterfalls or "grinders"), but the times when you are right make up for that. It's a game of probabilities, right?
Could you please help modify a bare-bone Trade Manager into one that exits by Chart TF and prints V lines on the Exit time which is the end of Chart TF.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post13344626

Thank you
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #114,593
  • Jan 6, 2021 1:15am Jan 6, 2021 1:15am
Quoting hasib
Forget about Candlesticks pattern
Where do you get your information from Hasib?
"131 million people have visited TradingView" so those that use Candlesticks pattern to trade with will be staggering.
Attached Image

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EU...n-TradingView/
https://www.tradingview.com/ideas/candlestick/
  • #114,594
  • Jan 6, 2021 1:19am Jan 6, 2021 1:19am
Quoting simnz
{quote} Could you please help modify a bare-bone Trade Manager into one that exits by Chart TF and prints V lines on the Exit time which is the end of Chart TF. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post13344626 Thank you
Hello @simonz -- though I appreciate your endeaver, I'm going to pass. Though useful for others, it's not something I would use. I don't do custom programming because you can imagine how many 1000's of people have good ideas that would help them or their particular group of traders. You're a very smart fellow -- why not spend a couple of months and dig into mql4 programming so you can be independent and complete coding tasks like this for the many years that lie ahead in your trading career.
  • #114,595
  • Jan 6, 2021 1:26am Jan 6, 2021 1:26am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Hello @simonz -- though I appreciate your endeaver, I'm going to pass. Though useful for others, it's not something I would use. I don't do custom programming because you can imagine how many 1000's of people have good ideas that would help them or their particular group of traders. You're a very smart fellow -- why not spend a couple of months and dig into mql4 programming so you can be independent and complete coding tasks like this for the many years that lie ahead in your trading career.
Your comment is enough to stir people in hitting back. Please try to avoid them. You simply say it is not cup of your tea. That would be sufficient.
I am 72 and it does not affect me.
It is in your own interest I am giving unsolicited advice.
You have talents but FF is not the forum to give vent to your emotions.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #114,596
  • Jan 6, 2021 1:31am Jan 6, 2021 1:31am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote}Those trends will make your year. Thoughts?
Here is other one, Jmn.
Again M15, you catch the them everyday like this (I wish) you will have your big trend at the end of the year.
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Really not much a person can add / take away from what BigE has posted in this thread.
Why every Tom, Dick and Harry thinks that this method needs to be improved is mind boggeling.

#8286 ...... If you want to add indicators... keep it to yourself and please don't post it here. You know the rules... please trade it as laid out.
  • #114,597
  • Jan 6, 2021 1:51am Jan 6, 2021 1:51am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Here is other one, Jmn. Again M15, you catch the them everyday like this (I wish) you will have your big trend at the end of the year. {image} Really not much a person can add / take away from what BigE has posted in this thread. Why every Tom, Dick and Harry thinks that this method needs to be improved is mind boggeling. #8286 ...... If you want to add indicators... keep it to yourself and please don't post it here. You know the rules... please trade it as laid out.
"Why every Tom, Dick and Harry thinks that this method needs to be improved is mind boggeling."

Because, dear, this is a public forum and a public thread. It's open for discussion. You don't like discussion when it differs from the way you trade -- tough shit.

Somewhere, someplace, some people got it drilled into their head they must trade only one system. I've never seen that carved in stone -- if you can show me where I'd appreciate seeing it. Like many challenging tasks, forex trading lends itself to experimentation, testing, searching for new, different, better ways. In fact, isn't that the human condition? @Tekkies -- if most people thought like you we'd still be living as cavemen / cavewomen in the stone age.

Some people are shallow thinkers and are not capable of handling more than one concept at a time. Others not only can handle multiple concepts -- they even thrive on it.

I am a single-tasker -- when I'm on the phone all I can think about is conversing with the person at the other end. My daughter is an amazing multi-tasker -- she can have one phone to her ear, texting on another, and yelling at her brother -- all at the same time. Would I ever tell her to stop and only do one thing? Of course not. But, @Tekkies, that's what you do. You are stuck back in 2011 and to hide your stuckness you want everyone else to remain stuck with you. Sorry, dear, it ain't happening. And after 5 years you're still beating the same drum.
  • #114,598
  • Jan 6, 2021 1:58am Jan 6, 2021 1:58am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} "Why every Tom, Dick and Harry thinks that this method needs to be improved is mind boggeling." Because, dear, this is a public forum and a public thread. It's open for discussion. You don't like discussion when it differs from the way you trade -- tough shit. Somewhere, someplace, some people got it drilled into their head they must trade only one system. I've never seen that carved in stone -- if you can show me where I'd appreciate seeing it. Like many challenging tasks, forex trading lends itself to experimentation, testing, searching...
Wrong again.
#486...... If you want to share your other ways or indicators then PM the person that is interested. Don't post it on our thread...
  • #114,599
  • Jan 6, 2021 1:58am Jan 6, 2021 1:58am
Quoting simnz
{quote} Your comment is enough to stir people in hitting back. Please try to avoid them. You simply say it is not cup of your tea. That would be sufficient. I am 72 and it does not affect me. It is in your own interest I am giving unsolicited advice. You have talents but FF is not the forum to give vent to your emotions.
And what exactly did I say that would "stir people in hitting back"? The fact I suggested you also learn mql4 programming? Really? You'd consider that a crime? And as for your coding request being in my interest, how is that? You're asking me to spend a few days to code software for your particular purpose. I'd never use it -- I don't trade that way and don't have any intention of doing so. And you are telling me it would be in my interest? This is an example why I don't do custom programming -- people think I should consider their ideas because they would be in *my* best interest. There must be an expression for people that think they know what's best for you -- but I'm currently at a loss...
  • #114,600
  • Jan 6, 2021 2:01am Jan 6, 2021 2:01am
It could have been such a nice trade.
Perfect Reversal, nice swings, RNB. The only part is missing in this puzzle. TDI cross.
But entry on the second candle is also OK.
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