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1M Price Action System

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  • #121
  • Dec 25, 2020 8:10am Dec 25, 2020 8:10am
Quoting sick35
{quote} Updated version
Thank you sick

Guys divergence only an indication, nothing can beat your eyes! we dont just jump in looking at divergence, dont let it excite to enter in any trade immediately.

we only trade price action with a confluence of divergence/convergence and break/continuation in market structure and enter only upon retest of OB.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #122
  • Dec 25, 2020 9:53am Dec 25, 2020 9:53am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Thank you once again for the effort... PS: i see that you have included the RSI percentage for O/B and O/S.


You are welcome
  • #123
  • Dec 25, 2020 10:00am Dec 25, 2020 10:00am
Gold - back testing (ignore the macd type indicators, i was checking these indicator/i will share some thing useful if it worked)

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checking if our method work in oil
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #124
  • Dec 25, 2020 10:14am Dec 25, 2020 10:14am
Notes:
We have learnt what is OB now will discuss price inefficiency/imbalance/fair value gap.

The gap between the wicks when price just go in one direction and forgets to tag the last sell candle.

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"Exchange of hands"
  • #125
  • Dec 25, 2020 11:29am Dec 25, 2020 11:29am
another imbalance example in a downtrend, price created an imbalance, came back to fill the gap and continue to fall:
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #126
  • Edited 2:14pm Dec 25, 2020 1:52pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting PixelSniper
{quote} yes but also remember that gbpusd is in a bullish trend atm.
Kind of ..., remember that you need to include the context of TIME FRAME when you use "trend"..And because you have no context, and the post that you quoted has been deleted, "bullish trend" has no meaning now.

As I see it, the up trends are simply RALLIES to the MN32 (note that MN32 is nearly the YEAR3 TF) DOWN swing.

The current up bias seen when looking at MN1 is more likely the MN8 ending a down trend and now attempting to start swing 1 of a new uptrend. Said uptrend will be attempting to swing up MN16 into its RALLY to the MN32.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #127
  • Dec 25, 2020 2:19pm Dec 25, 2020 2:19pm
Quoting PixelSniper
{quote} a very famous & accurate technical trader in my country also stated that gbpusd is going to reach 1.41.
This post from July 31 is showing a zone to hit on GBPUSD that looks like 1.41-1.43.

And if you followed this explanation and are a Fib follower, then the Swing high of about March, 2014 is the start of the MN8 down swing to measure a 50% retracement right back up into that 1.41 zone.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #128
  • Edited 5:33pm Dec 25, 2020 4:31pm | Edited 5:33pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Kind of ..., remember that you need to include the context of TIME FRAME when you use "trend"..And because you have no context, and the post that you quoted has been deleted, "bullish trend" has no meaning now. As I see it, the up trends are simply RALLIES to the MN32 (note that MN32 is nearly the YEAR3 TF) DOWN swing. The current up bias seen when looking at MN1 is more likely the MN8 ending a down trend and now attempting to start swing 1 of a new uptrend. Said uptrend will be attempting to swing up MN16 into its RALLY to the MN32.
Yep, you are sincerely right here DrDave.
That bullish assumption was made just by a glance to the daily chart, no in depth analysis at all, just a quick look.
Maybe it is right, maybe it is wrong.. And 1m&5m scalps don't really much have to do with the trend/rally, really...
All the good scalpers focus mostly on counter trend/rally trades anyway. So my point is some sort of invalid there.
And It is not good to make trend assumptions based on ''only several piece of intel'' too.
To be honest I don't even care that much about the direction or the trend, I focus on pattern recogniton, currently have my own pattern that works mostly on every TF, theoratically, but I'll use it on the 1m for the scalps, It was created / designed for the scalps, actually no. I did not create it, just discovered perhaps.
I'm not so good at technical analysis, but it does not stop me from repeating the pattern I know, so I'm trying :-)
No indicators,just mental pattern recognition +speculation and go.
  • #129
  • Dec 25, 2020 7:01pm Dec 25, 2020 7:01pm
Quoting PixelSniper
{quote} I'll use it on the 1m for the scalps, It was created / designed for the scalps, actually no. I did not create it, just discovered perhaps. I'm not so good at technical analysis, but it does not stop me from repeating the pattern I know, so I'm trying :-) No indicators,just mental pattern recognition +speculation and go.
It would be kind if you may share your patterns with no indicators, i would love to learn from your way.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #130
  • Dec 25, 2020 11:31pm Dec 25, 2020 11:31pm
gbp usd m5 trade
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Sanaullah
  • #131
  • Edited 3:49am Dec 26, 2020 3:36am | Edited 3:49am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} It would be kind if you may share your patterns with no indicators, i would love to learn from your way.

Ok.. The reason I want to do speculative trades is simple, I've analyzed winning portfolios and big traders who managed to make 6 and 7 figures out of trading.
First, they don't do crossovers. Second, they always try to buy cheap and sell expensive. Third, what I noticed is they never wait for oscillators to show them a good point, otherwise too many oppurtunites are missed.. I've simulated the trades to know this, none of the stoch / rsi etc would fit, also the good scalpers can take about 50-100 trades a day, imagine waiting an oversold overbought condition everyday, would you get that many signals? No. maybe with 5.3.3 Stoch which would eventually suck your trading account.

So at that point I realized one thing, this men look at the charts and really trade the moment, and speculate.

So I began watching the charts, and try to anticipate.. and eventually I designed a way to ''act speculatively'' and pick trades that can turn GREEN in a short time.
Another thing I realized when I investigate and simulate those trades, they buy red candles, and sell green candles, WHY because the markets are always selling and buying and you increase your chances of being in profit that way after you enter your trade. This does not mean to sell the big green 4H candle etc, you must find good support & resistance areas and sell the short term spikes / green candles or viceversa for the buy etc.


Ok so on this pic I have bollinger bands which I don't really consider as a trigger indicator or main aspect of the trading system, it just fits my eye.
You can remove it, I also have pivot points to identify if the price is '' Cheap or Expensive'' short term, nothing else.
I will sell at pivot supports and buy resistances too, If I see the pattern, so It's not an issue. But usually it is eaisier if you do the ''regular way of pivot points'' you know. Because for example if you noticed if the price spikes up from the pivot point, you don't really wanna rush and sell. Because it spikes for good. So I use them as ''cautions''. Can remove these too.

Also a note, I apply this strategy to london / ny sessions. Because you guys probably noticed that technical analysis is somewhat fluff during asian session.
Frankly, patterns work a lot better on asian sessions too but, It does not really matter. I'll be sleeping at that time so.

Plus you have to be cautious with new highs and new lows, the price, the chart should confirm that new supply&demand zone is being confirmed.And then you can pull the trigger, you probably won't be able to use my patterns, but the whole idea is to screen monitor and find a way to buy low & sell cheap whenever you can..
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  • #132
  • Dec 26, 2020 3:50am Dec 26, 2020 3:50am
Quoting PixelSniper
{quote}
First, they don't do crossovers.
Second, they always try to buy cheap and sell expensive.
Third, what I noticed is they never wait for oscillators to show them a good point, otherwise too many oppurtunites are missed..

Another thing I realized when I investigate and simulate those trades, they buy red candles, and sell green candles, WHY because the markets are always selling and buying and you increase your chances of being in profit that way after you enter your trade.

I will sell at pivot supports and buy resistances too, If I see...
Thanks a bundle for sharing your insights and damn they are spot on, like wait for Break in market structure and buy on a sell candle when it is retest/mitigating the OB, london/newyork overlapping session!
"Exchange of hands"
  • #133
  • Dec 26, 2020 4:32am Dec 26, 2020 4:32am
Quoting PixelSniper
{quote} Ok.. The reason I want to do speculative trades is simple, I've analyzed winning portfolios and big traders who managed to make 6 and 7 figures out of trading. First, they don't do crossovers. Second, they always try to buy cheap and sell expensive. Third, what I noticed is they never wait for oscillators to show them a good point, otherwise too many oppurtunites are missed.. I've simulated the trades to know this, none of the stoch / rsi etc would fit, also the good scalpers can take about 50-100 trades a day, imagine waiting an oversold...
I absolutely agree with your strategy as it is purely based on what moves market, and the use of Bollinger band and pivot for confirmation is great as Bollinger band lines act like resistance/support, and can also help to determine whether the market is trending or in range.
  • #134
  • Edited 4:44am Dec 26, 2020 4:33am | Edited 4:44am
This is why trying to invent the wheel and the thousands of strategies that people keep making up fail over time. This is no mystery that every time we see divergence off of the lows and highs from the day what do we see? The same ole set up time after time. Two types of divergence. Regular & Hidden. Which is more obvious, I would say both of them but we know one for sure is a full out reversal which is going to yield a lot more pips. All one has to do is wait for new highs and lows spot divergence be patient and make a trade. Everyday once a day. Once you’re up to 2 lots taking these same trades once a day FOREX will become your personal ATM machine. I would also add that OP says that once you spot divergence you should observe for 2 hours. I think that is 100% accurate.
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  • #135
  • Dec 26, 2020 8:28am Dec 26, 2020 8:28am
Quoting dele5000
{quote} I absolutely agree with your strategy as it is purely based on what moves market, and the use of Bollinger band and pivot for confirmation is great as Bollinger band lines act like resistance/support, and can also help to determine whether the market is trending or in range.
Yes and usually I wanna trade in the range.
I go with super tight sl, 6-8 pips. And aim 3-5 pips usually but hold for 20-30+ if there is a breakout potential, must watch. No reason to have very wide Sls really.
One thing you must accept is loses, %65-70 win ratio is cool enough to roll around. Get the loses and move on, trade like a machine..
One good range can make you a lot of money, since you know what's going on. Also after every range there is a good move, try to catch that one with your tight sl and positive expectancy will be great.
  • #136
  • Edited Dec 27, 2020 7:26am Dec 26, 2020 11:48am | Edited Dec 27, 2020 7:26am
Back Testing on timeframe H4, since market is fractal so same rules.

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"Exchange of hands"
  • #137
  • Dec 26, 2020 7:41pm Dec 26, 2020 7:41pm
Quoting bilal1947
Back Testing on timeframe H4, since maket is fractal so same rules. {image}

Why you did not take the divergence near 32930 with a break near 31230?
MTN
  • #138
  • Edited 9:45pm Dec 26, 2020 9:19pm | Edited 9:45pm
Quoting Marcelomtn
{quote} Why you did not take the divergence near 32930 with a break near 31230?
Thank you forr asking this, Yes could pick that but not very clear divergence as indicators makes equal highs, yet would given 50+ pips.

There is no magical way to win 100% yet this method is pure price action because we seeing break in market structure, and upon retest we enter on small time frames.

Anything you have observed which can improve, kindly do share.
Thanks
"Exchange of hands"
  • #139
  • Dec 27, 2020 12:54am Dec 27, 2020 12:54am
Quoting bilal1947
Notes: We have learnt what is OB now will discuss price inefficiency/imbalance/fair value gap. The gap between the wicks when price just go in one direction and forgets to tag the last sell candle. {image}
mate can i know which divergence you were trading? bit confused
  • #140
  • Dec 27, 2020 1:11am Dec 27, 2020 1:11am
Quoting fsatrader
{quote} mate can i know which divergence you were trading? bit confused
Divergence is the baby step to observe price shift, in a bigger picture there are different concepts.

In the referred pic its fair value gap or imbalance or price inefficiency different people call it different names, basically how price move is like a relay race they tag and run so every down candle in and up trend has to be tag back and run bullish.

where this pattern doesn't happen is called price inefficiency or fair value gap or imbalance whatever you like to call. when price fills this gap, then it will continue moving where it has to move in the long term trend.
"Exchange of hands"
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