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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,681
  • Dec 21, 2020 3:28pm Dec 21, 2020 3:28pm
[quote=shahab8b;13324217]{quote} Yes. Also UCAD 1.2825/quote]
Took a slice on 1.2825 / 50%, I think we've got a confirmed breakout and retracement here. TP 1.30.
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  • #10,682
  • Dec 21, 2020 10:13pm Dec 21, 2020 10:13pm
i think maybe this
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,683
  • Edited 1:34am Dec 22, 2020 12:42am | Edited 1:34am
EC anyone?

maybe from here
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Stay low, Go fast - No luck, All skill
  • #10,684
  • Dec 22, 2020 12:53am Dec 22, 2020 12:53am
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  • #10,685
  • Edited 3:55am Dec 22, 2020 12:58am | Edited 3:55am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes, that happens. How many times did we talk about 1.2125? I think a good solution, as we pointed out, is hedging or using two accounts. We could have taken all these trades (long EU, AU, NU) and kept the short ones. After 1-2 hours it was clear where it was going. The problem today was missed opportunities. We did well on TP.
It looks like most of these moves were textbook confluence retracements of fibs and RN.

They went up more than expected but shakeouts tend to do that. Sometimes we are sat questioning if we got it right.

Given the nature of these whipsaw moves, it's possible these can still just be part of wider range.
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  • #10,686
  • Edited 1:46am Dec 22, 2020 1:18am | Edited 1:46am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes, that happens. How many times did we talk about 1.2125? I think a good solution, as we pointed out, is hedging or using two accounts. We could have taken all these trades (long EU, AU, NU) and kept the short ones. After 1-2 hours it was clear where it was going. The problem today was missed opportunities. We did well on TP.
I fully agree, hedging off solid levels is a great idea. I often do it instinctively when I'm unsure to lock in a position, but it can be built into a plan.

In most cases, the hedge will just get knocked out for break even. Worst case is giving back a few pips. As we saw with yesterday markets always looking to shake everyone out of their positions, but levels work in both directions.

If used in the right places a hedge will make sure we're always on the right side and removes all issues of bias.

GU example of a hedge lock. Bias and position is down, level and PA says up....
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  • #10,687
  • Dec 22, 2020 1:50am Dec 22, 2020 1:50am
Quoting tehtawar
EC anyone? maybe from here {image} {image}
Look better now, SL still at top, moving to BE later
Stay low, Go fast - No luck, All skill
  • #10,688
  • Dec 22, 2020 4:17am Dec 22, 2020 4:17am
Quoting C-12
{quote} It looks like most of these moves were textbook confluence retracements of fibs and RN. They went up more than expected but shakeouts tend to do that. Sometimes we are sat questioning if we got it right. Given the nature of these whipsaw moves, it's possible these can still just be part of wider range. {image} {image}
Yes those setups consistently produce results.

AUDUSD short 0.76. Possible levels.
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  • #10,689
  • Dec 22, 2020 4:23am Dec 22, 2020 4:23am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes those setups consistently produce results. AUDUSD short 0.76. Possible levels. {image}
NZDUSD short 0.71. Possible levels.
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  • #10,690
  • Dec 22, 2020 4:27am Dec 22, 2020 4:27am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Are you holding your EU short? 1.2250 worked well {image}
EURUSD, I took profit on the first position as it wanted to retouch 1.2250. Then I took another short from 1.2250. Possible levels.
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  • #10,691
  • Dec 22, 2020 4:35am Dec 22, 2020 4:35am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, I took profit on the first position as it wanted to retouch 1.2250. Then I took another short from 1.2250. Possible levels. {image}
Yes, I did similar. Was looking for 1.22 but it might have turned a bit ahead of schedule. Will keep an alert on it for a retest.
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  • #10,692
  • Dec 22, 2020 4:36am Dec 22, 2020 4:36am
Quoting C-12
GBPUSD 1.35 is an absolute slam dunk. 1.30 TP.
GBPUSD short 1.35 provided a very nice trade. One could have added another short on retest of 1.3450. Possible levels.
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  • #10,693
  • Dec 22, 2020 4:38am Dec 22, 2020 4:38am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD short 1.35 provided a very nice trade. One could have added another short on retest of 1.3450. Possible levels. {image}
Yes that was good area to add another scalp. Overall this does look quite corrective rather than full on reversal. 1.3350 is interesting.

Today seems we have a lot less volume to work with than yesterday.
  • #10,694
  • Dec 22, 2020 4:40am Dec 22, 2020 4:40am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURGBP long trade 0.9075. {image}
ERUGBP, long trade update. Possible levels.
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  • #10,695
  • Dec 22, 2020 4:47am Dec 22, 2020 4:47am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes. Also UCAD 1.2825 and UCHF 0.8225/50. GU can do a retracement to 50% fib @ 1.34. Let's see. Interestingly, most traders in EURUSD thread are going long EU or they have a bullish bias.
USDCAD long trade. Possible levels.
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  • #10,696
  • Dec 22, 2020 5:02am Dec 22, 2020 5:02am
Quoting Roszey
i think maybe this {image}
Level up
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,697
  • Dec 22, 2020 5:22am Dec 22, 2020 5:22am
Quoting Roszey
{quote} Level up {image}
i dont know how you do it.. bravo!
  • #10,698
  • Dec 22, 2020 6:06am Dec 22, 2020 6:06am
Quoting Roszey
{quote} Level up {image}
I expect more sell.

1.3329 - 1.3315 region ought to have buyers stepping in.

Trade safe!
  • #10,699
  • Edited 6:23am Dec 22, 2020 6:09am | Edited 6:23am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes, I did similar. Was looking for 1.22 but it might have turned a bit ahead of schedule. Will keep an alert on it for a retest. {image}
I took you up on that one. You were right, EU turned north ahead of schedule. I was waiting for 1.22. Let's see the reaction @ 1.2250/12275, above that we have 1.23.
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  • #10,700
  • Dec 22, 2020 7:19am Dec 22, 2020 7:19am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I took you up on that one. You were right, EU turned north ahead of schedule. I was waiting for 1.22. Let's see the reaction @ 1.2250/12275, above that we have 1.23. {image}
Yes, I like the placement of 1.2275 if this can grind it's way up there. Doesn't look like it will have enough umph to make it's way to 1.23 today but maybe NY can give it a nudge.

USDJPY might be setting up a long here, but it's probably going to be a slow burner.
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