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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,641
  • Dec 21, 2020 10:55am Dec 21, 2020 10:55am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Did you notice the number of routine setups that we missed today?
Yes there has been quite a few. Got some of them, but also I was caught overly bearish on pairs like AU and NU and even EU. Had to cut a few hits on those.

GBPAUD was a nice 100 pips round trip, 1.76 to .177 and back down to 1.76. Missed both of those. Similar on GBPNZD.

Bit of an odd day overall. The USD really looked like it was going to deliver a clean reversal and then rolled over.
  • #10,642
  • Dec 21, 2020 11:37am Dec 21, 2020 11:37am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes there has been quite a few. Got some of them, but also I was caught overly bearish on pairs like AU and NU and even EU. Had to cut a few hits on those. GBPAUD was a nice 100 pips round trip, 1.76 to .177 and back down to 1.76. Missed both of those. Similar on GBPNZD. Bit of an odd day overall. The USD really looked like it was going to deliver a clean reversal and then rolled over.
We had NU long 0.70, AU long 0.7475/0.75, EJ long 126, GU long 1.32, UJ short 103.75, UCHF short 0.89, UCAD short 1.29/1.295, and GJ long 137/137.50.
  • #10,643
  • Edited 11:58am Dec 21, 2020 11:45am | Edited 11:58am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} We had NU long 0.70, AU long 0.7475/0.75, EJ long 126, GU long 1.32, UJ short 103.75, UCHF short 0.89, UCAD short 1.29/1.295, and GJ long 137/137.50.
Yes I was trying not to think about those.

Not easy setups to take when the bias is in the other direction. There were some pretty heavy retracement moves today, and perhaps now about to run out of steam.

Took a short on cable off 1.3350 (38.2) and AU 0.7575 looks interesting here at 61.8, NU at 0.71.. EU has just closed the gap.

Although looking at the DXY, there's a strong possibility this can just go to make new lows from this and yet another false bottom. Let's see.
  • #10,644
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:12pm Dec 21, 2020 12:12pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes I was trying not to think about those. Not easy setups to take when the bias is in the other direction. There were some pretty heavy retracement moves today, and perhaps now about to run out of steam. Took a short on cable off 1.3350 (38.2) and AU 0.7575 looks interesting here at 61.8, NU at 0.71.. EU has just closed the gap. Although looking at the DXY, there's a strong possibility this can just go to make new lows from this and yet another false bottom. Let's see.
Yes. Also UCAD 1.2825 and UCHF 0.8225/50. GU can do a retracement to 50% fib @ 1.34. Let's see.

Interestingly, most traders in EURUSD thread are going long EU or they have a bullish bias.
  • #10,645
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:14pm Dec 21, 2020 12:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes. Also UCAD 1.2825 and UCHF 0.8225/50. GU can do a retracement to 50% fib @ 1.34. Let's see.
Yes, I had spotted those as well, UJ also sat right on the 50%

Some feels very off about these moves, but it's holiday season and liquidity is probably low and pairs are easily pushed around.

1.34 looks better level on GU and outside chance of a gap fill at 1.34750.
  • #10,646
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:16pm Dec 21, 2020 12:16pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes. Also UCAD 1.2825 and UCHF 0.8225/50. GU can do a retracement to 50% fib @ 1.34. Let's see. Interestingly, most traders in EURUSD thread are going long EU or they have a bullish bias.

what so intersting about the eu long?
  • #10,647
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:23pm Dec 21, 2020 12:23pm
Quoting gatenio
{quote} what so intersting about the eu long?
I am guessing many will be seeing this bullish H4 candle as trend continuation PA. It may well be.

We can't rule out 1.23, but also not rule out that this was just a run to close up the weekend gap on low liquidity.

At this stage, we need more info now.
  • #10,648
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:24pm Dec 21, 2020 12:24pm
Quoting gatenio
{quote} what so intersting about the eu long?
Well, I find it interesting because most sentiment indicators show that majority of retail traders are short EU atm.
  • #10,649
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:30pm Dec 21, 2020 12:30pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I am guessing many will be seeing this bullish H4 candle as trend continuation PA. We can't rule out 1.23, but also not rule out that this was just a run to close up the weekend gap on low liquidity. At this stage, we need more info now.
That's what I'm thinking. And you know how market usually surprises you. Let's keep an eye on that one. A turn may still be around the corner.
  • #10,650
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:39pm Dec 21, 2020 12:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} That's what I'm thinking. And you know how market usually surprises you. Let's keep an eye on that one. A turn may still be around the corner.
i gave up, au, eu, nu.. just gave up trying to short them.
  • #10,651
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:47pm Dec 21, 2020 12:47pm
Well here's our weekend gap just about to fully close up.

Question now is do we get a pullback from here, back to 1.22 and then a final run to 1.23.

I can't believe I missed a bread and butter demand zone like that, and it was a 61.8 of last up move. Bias sure puts a different slant on things.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 75 KB
  • #10,652
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:53pm Dec 21, 2020 12:53pm
USDJPY, short trade (50% fib and 0.75RN).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4 12 21.png Size: 33 KB
  • #10,653
  • Dec 21, 2020 1:06pm Dec 21, 2020 1:06pm
Quoting C-12
Well here's our weekend gap just about to fully close up. Question now is do we get a pullback from here, back to 1.22 and then a final run to 1.23. I can't believe I missed a bread and butter demand zone like that, and it was a 61.8 of last up move. Bias sure puts a different slant on things. {image}
Yes, that happens. How many times did we talk about 1.2125? I think a good solution, as we pointed out, is hedging or using two accounts. We could have taken all these trades (long EU, AU, NU) and kept the short ones. After 1-2 hours it was clear where it was going. The problem today was missed opportunities. We did well on TP.
  • #10,654
  • Dec 21, 2020 1:13pm Dec 21, 2020 1:13pm
GU wants to close the gap as well. Interesting PA today.
  • #10,655
  • Dec 21, 2020 1:21pm Dec 21, 2020 1:21pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes, that happens. How many times did we talk about 1.2125? I think a good solution, as we pointed out, is hedging or using two accounts. We could have taken all these trades (long EU, AU, NU) and kept the short ones. After 1-2 hours it was clear where it was going. The problem today was missed opportunities. We did well on TP.
Yes this is the thing about having bias compared to a mechanical process to purely taking levels and TP's

I do like the idea of hedging and often do it, but somehow today just was very hard headed on the USD bull scenario.

Okay.. Just got triggered pending short GU 1.34750 (gap close) and long EG 0.90.

These low liquid markets need to be super careful. The exact reasons I was not planning to trade it and enjoy the holidays.

Now I'm knee deep in this this swamp..
  • #10,656
  • Dec 21, 2020 1:27pm Dec 21, 2020 1:27pm
Quoting shahab8b
GU wants to close the gap as well. Interesting PA today.
This is a solid level here on GU. Got a final order on 1.35. EG taking some heat, but that's a gap filled as well.
  • #10,657
  • Dec 21, 2020 1:34pm Dec 21, 2020 1:34pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes this is the thing about having bias compared to a mechanical process to purely taking levels and TP's I do like the idea of hedging and often do it, but somehow today just was very hard headed on the USD bull scenario. Okay.. Just got triggered pending short GU 1.34750 (gap close) and long EG 0.90. These low liquid markets need to be super careful. The exact reasons I was not planning to trade it and enjoy the holidays. Now I'm knee deep in this this swamp..
I hear you. It looked like an easy bearish day first. But it took a wild turn.

I think EG wants 0.9075 or 0.9050
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPH4 12 21 t.png Size: 31 KB
  • #10,658
  • Dec 21, 2020 1:39pm Dec 21, 2020 1:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I hear you. It looked like an easy bearish day first. But it took a wild turn. I think EG wants 0.9075 or 0.9050 {image}
You might be right, I took out my shorts from 0.91 on 0.90 and switched to longs. Probably should have waited for PA.

Now things are getting more interesting here as GU taps 1.35.

Given the mess the UK is in right now and the quality of the level, 1.35 is a very attractive price.

A great chance for me to swap out some GBP to Thai Bhat. That's if I can get out of this hell hole anytime soon.
  • #10,659
  • Dec 21, 2020 1:47pm Dec 21, 2020 1:47pm
I took another buy after the price close above MOP..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7191ac62968db661167528771eced6d7.png Size: 75 KB
Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,660
  • Dec 21, 2020 1:57pm Dec 21, 2020 1:57pm
Quoting Roszey
I took another buy after the price close above MOP.. {image}
Nice trade Roszey! and congratulations on making one million dollars!
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