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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,621
  • Dec 21, 2020 6:54am Dec 21, 2020 6:54am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Did you check out SPX? that's the trade to take. {image}
Oh that was a beauty and has been building for weeks. I was wondering when it would finally crack.

Here was the EURAUD setup, H4 zone and good confluence. Spotted this on a passive scan. It might turn out better than I initially expected.
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  • #10,622
  • Dec 21, 2020 6:54am Dec 21, 2020 6:54am
GU 1.33 if someone wants to add to short position. Small size.
  • #10,623
  • Dec 21, 2020 7:00am Dec 21, 2020 7:00am
The structure of EU drop from the top is very similar to the structure of GU drop from the top back in September. This is a smaller scale (H1 vs H4), but it can give us some clues what to expect next.
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  • #10,624
  • Dec 21, 2020 7:09am Dec 21, 2020 7:09am
Quoting C-12
{quote} I was just thinking that. Kind of died a bit of a death, but perhaps it's just a retracement. Would be surprised if EU doesn't get to 1.21 by close of play or tomorrow. EG counter RN looks good atm, possible longs on 0.91. {image}
Yes, EG 0.91 looks good for a long setup.
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  • #10,625
  • Dec 21, 2020 7:12am Dec 21, 2020 7:12am
Quoting shahab8b
The structure of EU drop from the top is very similar to the structure of GU drop from the top back in September. This is a smaller scale (H1 vs H4), but it can give us some clues what to expect next. {image} {image}
Well spotted. It really does look like we have a strong bear case building here. Plus that MN supply holding well.

Another good mechanical, multi factor confluence setup today with EURJPY. If this crack through 126 then 125 looks to be on the cards.

I did have the sell at 1.27 but bailed early on Friday.
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  • #10,626
  • Dec 21, 2020 7:31am Dec 21, 2020 7:31am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Oh that was a beauty and has been building for weeks. I was wondering when it would finally crack. Here was the EURAUD setup, H4 zone and good confluence. Spotted this on a passive scan. It might turn out better than I initially expected. {image}
Did you take EURAUD 1.60? I feel like we leave so many pips uncollected, haha.

Possible short setups on EURAUD coming up.
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  • #10,627
  • Dec 21, 2020 7:34am Dec 21, 2020 7:34am
Quoting shahab8b
GU 1.33 if someone wants to add to short position. Small size.
better wait for the SW zone on 50%
small SL if bulls want to close the gap.
finally i see the 1.3 area.. im waiting for this since the elections
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  • #10,628
  • Dec 21, 2020 7:35am Dec 21, 2020 7:35am
Quoting shahab8b
The structure of EU drop from the top is very similar to the structure of GU drop from the top back in September. This is a smaller scale (H1 vs H4), but it can give us some clues what to expect next. {image} {image}
The EU bounce off 1.2125 is very similar to GU bounce off 1.3175 back in September. You almost question the short bias. EU should remain below 1.2230, otherwise, the comparison is wrong.
  • #10,629
  • Dec 21, 2020 7:38am Dec 21, 2020 7:38am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} better wait for the SW zone on 50% small SL if bulls want to close the gap. finally i see the 1.3 area.. im waiting for this since the elections {image}
Yes 1.34 looks better, or maybe 1.3350.
  • #10,630
  • Dec 21, 2020 7:49am Dec 21, 2020 7:49am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Did you take EURAUD 1.60? I feel like we leave so many pips uncollected, haha. Possible short setups on EURAUD coming up. {image}
Unfortunately another missed setup. I had an alert on it, but seems it turned just ahead of the level. It arrived during the London session as well so should have been an easy one.

Seems we need more pairs of eyes!

I am not sure how I am feeling about EURUSD cruising through 1.20 right here... 1.2150 is at it again!
  • #10,631
  • Dec 21, 2020 7:51am Dec 21, 2020 7:51am
@C12, i saw you asked @shahab8b's opinion about fib extension few days ago.
just sharing this beauty, GOLD reaction 1.27 extension (amazing ratio number after price testing 50%/61.8% fib retracement)
dropping more then 50 points in 4 hours.. (500 pips)
not sure gold is full yet, if it get new high above 1907, 1931 will be will be nice spot to tp

so 50% retrace on the point, 1.27% almost on the point.
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  • #10,632
  • Dec 21, 2020 8:00am Dec 21, 2020 8:00am
Quoting gatenio
@C12, i saw you asked @shahab8b's opinion about fib extension few days ago. just sharing this beauty, GOLD reaction 1.27 extension (amazing ratio number after price testing 50%/61.8% fib retracement) dropping more then 50 points in 4 hours.. (500 pips) not sure gold is full yet, if it get new high above 1907, 1931 will be will be nice spot to tp so 50% retrace on the point, 1.27% almost on the point. {image}
Cheers, I have added the extensions in and will be paying more attention to them. If should help with targets and the issues of premature exits.

Actually EU 1.20 looks ok. It's the supply zone off the open and the weekly pivot. There's probably a lot orders to fill on there. There is a very small gap above, I guess that is still possible.

Sold EURCAD as well off 1.5725.
  • #10,633
  • Edited 8:59am Dec 21, 2020 8:13am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, levels to watch. {image}
Possible reload long right here off 103.500?

Also let's see if DXY can do anything here.

103.50 looks ok atm, 38.2 plus W1 pivot / W1 open.
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  • #10,634
  • Dec 21, 2020 9:05am Dec 21, 2020 9:05am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} better wait for the SW zone on 50% small SL if bulls want to close the gap. finally i see the 1.3 area.. im waiting for this since the elections {image}
i took the SW demand zone
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,635
  • Dec 21, 2020 9:13am Dec 21, 2020 9:13am
the Daily Volume still hold for now. So when GU weekly range completed then took the buy.
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,636
  • Dec 21, 2020 9:26am Dec 21, 2020 9:26am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Did you check out SPX? that's the trade to take. {image}
Cheers, I'll have some of this on the US30.
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  • #10,637
  • Dec 21, 2020 9:27am Dec 21, 2020 9:27am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Did you check out SPX? that's the trade to take. {image}
SPX, update. I made some serious short trades on this one and other indices. The structure was very clear.
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  • #10,638
  • Dec 21, 2020 10:01am Dec 21, 2020 10:01am
Crude is rolling over
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  • #10,639
  • Dec 21, 2020 10:29am Dec 21, 2020 10:29am
AUDUSD
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  • #10,640
  • Dec 21, 2020 10:45am Dec 21, 2020 10:45am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Cheers, I'll have some of this on the US30. {image}
Did you notice the number of routine setups that we missed today?
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