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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,601
  • Dec 21, 2020 3:08am Dec 21, 2020 3:08am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Some great holds there. Seems we were right with the USD reversal scenario. It was all about the timing and patience in the end with a lot of chop. Retracements definitely on the menu. EURUSD, USDCHF and EURJPY were the clean ones so far today, but needed to be fast to catch them. EURGBP - Counter RN at 0.92?
Thanks. Are you holding the same trades? Yes, I took EG 0.92.
  • #10,602
  • Dec 21, 2020 3:14am Dec 21, 2020 3:14am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks. Are you holding the same trades? Yes, I took EG 0.92.
I was not meant to be trading this week but I did catch some of these good setups.

Unfortunately I bailed out extremely early last week on USDCAD 1.27, GBPUSD 1.3625 and AUDUSD 0.76250 ... I need to work on this problem next year.
  • #10,603
  • Dec 21, 2020 3:17am Dec 21, 2020 3:17am
Watch out EU
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  • #10,604
  • Dec 21, 2020 3:24am Dec 21, 2020 3:24am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPJPY, short trade. levels to watch {image}
GBPJPY short trade update. Levels to watch.
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  • #10,605
  • Dec 21, 2020 3:28am Dec 21, 2020 3:28am
Quoting C-12
{quote} I was not meant to be trading this week but I did catch some of these good setups. Unfortunately I bailed out extremely early last week on USDCAD 1.27, GBPUSD 1.3625 and AUDUSD 0.76250 ... I need to work on this problem next year.
We had the same entries on most of the pairs, right? That's why I always suggest keeping a portion of the trade with sl @ b/e. These swing trades don't happen too often but they are very rewarding.
  • #10,606
  • Dec 21, 2020 3:32am Dec 21, 2020 3:32am
AUDCAD, monthly chart.
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  • #10,607
  • Dec 21, 2020 3:46am Dec 21, 2020 3:46am
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD short trade. Possible long setups. {image}
NZDUSD, short trade update. The TL is broken. A short term top may be in place if we get a daily close below 0.70. Levels to watch.
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  • #10,608
  • Dec 21, 2020 3:48am Dec 21, 2020 3:48am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} We had the same entries on most of the pairs, right? That's why I always suggest keeping a portion of the trade with sl @ b/e. These swing trades don't happen too often but they are very rewarding.
Yup, and this part of a tough transition from many years of being a scalper / intraday trader. Other thing was simply burnout from all the break evens over the last 2-3 weeks.

I have some ideas to fix that with some clearer rules in the trading plan. Looks like we have a good action packed day today so far.
  • #10,609
  • Dec 21, 2020 3:50am Dec 21, 2020 3:50am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} This is what I meant. {image}
Not bad, right? As simple as it gets.

Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Your entry should be on a RN or a solid confluence level considering this bearish PA. That may give a chance to move your sl to b/e after a 15-20 pips bounce off the level. Otherwise, this is a sell the rallies type of scenario in my book.
.....
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  • #10,610
  • Dec 21, 2020 4:01am Dec 21, 2020 4:01am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yup, and this part of a tough transition from many years of being a scalper / intraday trader. Other thing was simply burnout from all the break evens over the last 2-3 weeks. I have some ideas to fix that with some clearer rules in the trading plan. Looks like we have a good action packed day today so far.
I think you are holding your trades longer than before, right? It needs a little more practice. If you feel the urge to TP early, at least keep 1/3 or 1/4 of your position. That should be easier.

Did you notice the level EU bounced off again?
  • #10,611
  • Dec 21, 2020 4:06am Dec 21, 2020 4:06am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I think you are holding your trades longer than before, right? It needs a little more practice. If you feel the urge to TP early, at least keep 1/3 or 1/4 of your position. That should be easier. Did you notice the level EU bounced off again?
Yes, its really a change of mindset as these swings do give a solid boost on the account when you catch them.

Caught the earlier move off 1.2250 (bit late) and just added a quick one on 1.2175. 1.22 looks very attractive if it manages to get back up there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,612
  • Dec 21, 2020 4:08am Dec 21, 2020 4:08am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURJPY, long trade update. Let's see the reaction @ 127 for a possible short trade. {image}
EURJPY, short trade update. Levels to watch.
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  • #10,613
  • Dec 21, 2020 4:19am Dec 21, 2020 4:19am
USDCHF, this is an example of RN effect, even when you are trading in one direction, you can scalp off the RNs in the opposite direction (in the same account if you are allowed to hedge or in a different account).
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  • #10,614
  • Dec 21, 2020 4:21am Dec 21, 2020 4:21am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes, its really a change of mindset as these swings do give a solid boost on the account when you catch them. Caught the earlier move off 1.2250 (bit late) and just added a quick one on 1.2175. 1.22 looks very attractive if it manages to get back up there. {image}
EU and UCHF are being difficult again. I'm watching the pa closely.
  • #10,615
  • Dec 21, 2020 4:22am Dec 21, 2020 4:22am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EU and UCHF are being difficult again. I'm watching the pa closely.
Year-end PA very abnormal
Stay low, Go fast - No luck, All skill
  • #10,616
  • Dec 21, 2020 4:23am Dec 21, 2020 4:23am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EU and UCHF are being difficult again. I'm watching the pa closely.
I was just thinking that. Kind of died a bit of a death, but perhaps it's just a retracement. Would be surprised if EU doesn't get to 1.21 by close of play or tomorrow.

EG counter RN looks good atm, possible longs on 0.91.
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  • #10,617
  • Dec 21, 2020 4:25am Dec 21, 2020 4:25am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Some great holds there. Seems we were right with the USD reversal scenario. It was all about the timing and patience in the end with a lot of chop. Retracements definitely on the menu. EURUSD, USDCHF and EURJPY were the clean ones so far today, but needed to be fast to catch them. EURGBP - Counter RN at 0.92?
EURGBP short @ 0.92

Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks. Are you holding the same trades? Yes, I took EG 0.92.
....
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  • #10,618
  • Dec 21, 2020 4:28am Dec 21, 2020 4:28am
Quoting C-12
{quote} I was just thinking that. Kind of died a bit of a death, but perhaps it's just a retracement. Would be surprised if EU doesn't get to 1.21 by close of play or tomorrow. EG counter RN looks good atm, possible longs on 0.91. {image}
EU short seems better than UCHF long. It's because of the risk off situation. I am expecting EU at 1.2075/1.21 based on my wave count.
  • #10,619
  • Edited 4:42am Dec 21, 2020 4:29am | Edited 4:42am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURGBP short @ 0.92 {quote} .... {image}
Did you see EURCAD 1.5725 and EURAUD at 1.6250? I guess both are now possibly counter setups but offered decent rejection PA.

AUDUSD - Two levels of interest at 0.7550 and 0.7575
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  • #10,620
  • Dec 21, 2020 4:50am Dec 21, 2020 4:50am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Did you see EURCAD 1.5725 and EURAUD at 1.6250? I guess both are now possibly counter setups but offered decent rejection PA. AUDUSD - Two levels of interest at 0.7550 and 0.7575 {image}
Did you check out SPX? that's the trade to take.
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