Trading Made Simple

Quoting DrDave

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{quote} Why bother with GUESSING, HOPE&PRAY, etc., when you can simply wait for the charts to SHOW you where they are going using LAGGING indicators, and then you FOLLOW the leader to profits.

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Quoting kirinda

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{quote} I guessing in these sense: Usually on a 4H chart when we get breakout the price will in many cases (about 50%?) retrace back to the level and continue in the direction of the trend. If the price retrace back to the level I will go to a lower timeframe looking for an entry in the direction of the 4H trend. But the price can also continue without pullback to the level. It can also be a fake breakout where the price going the opposite direction of the trend. I guessed the direction for fun since you write down I can write up ...

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Quoting DrDave

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{quote} Try looking at more time frames. Include H8 and H16 if you're going to concentrate so much on H4. If you understand how the charts price cycles from one TF to another, then you will most certainly make different decisions viewing H4, H8, and H16 than if you view only H4 and lower. By the way, I did not say down--that TF and some other SHOWED me down. Kind of like below. Look familiar? Anyone want to say going up? {image} Maybe looks like this previous one?{image}

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Quoting toti1985

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{quote} Moron number 2 ,As i see you are here from very long time and "grasp" it very well ....you just yawn like a poodle, but you don't show any real deals you've made. don't argue about my mentality because I have two degrees in economics and law, and they are not from an African university. and we will find out in the future how successful I will be. and you with your 0.10 lots per deal, you will never be successful. in order to be successful you have to invest and make money, not only to explain how much you know, but not to prove your words...

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Quoting DrDave

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{quote}Joseph Goebbels School of Propaganda?

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Quoting kirinda

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{quote} I only look for 4H not any larger timeframe because I will keep it simple.

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Quoting DrDave

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{quote} Try looking at more time frames. Include H8 and H16 if you're going to concentrate so much on H4. If you understand how the charts price cycles from one TF to another, then you will most certainly make different decisions viewing H4, H8, and H16 than if you view only H4 and lower. By the way, I did not say down--that TF and some other SHOWED me down. Kind of like below. Look familiar? Anyone want to say going up? {image} Maybe looks like this previous one?{image}

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Quoting DrDave

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{quote} Then be satisified with your stated ~50% of the time guessing the H4 behavior. (That is coin flip statistics, you know...)

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Quoting Tekkies

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{quote} Yes, it is going up {image}

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Quoting kirinda

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{quote}By the way, if you win 50% (flip coin) and have a good risk:reward you will make good money.

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Quoting kirinda

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{quote} I only take entry on lower timeframe if it follow the rules: retracement on 4H back to level and entry on lower timeframe if indicator say so. This have nothing to do with flipping an coin. By the way, if you win 50% (flip coin) and have a good risk:reward you will make good money.

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Quoting Tekkies

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{quote} Will that not be break even? Add spread or commission to the mix and it will be 48% at making good money. - Every time before you flip coin you have to put one cent on the table. - Every coin flip is ten cent win or lose. - Win is ten cent minus the cent payed to flip. > win = nine cent - Loss is ten cent plus cent payed to flip > loss = eleven cent.

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Quoting DrDave

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{quote} Then what is this that you posted #113,203? I guessing in these sense: Usually on a 4H chart when we get breakout the price will in many cases (about 50%?) retrace back to the level I see "guessing" and "in many cases (about 50%)". As I said, coin toss will get you the same. And as far as risk:reward, I highly doubt that you apply it so that it actually has any meaning. More likely you do as most people and interfere in many of your trades before they close.

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Quoting kirinda

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{quote} If you for example have risk:reward 1:2 and winrate is 48% you will get rich if you have enough trades and your average winrate over time is 48%. Tekkies, you now this

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Quoting kirinda

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{quote} I have not so much time to discuss this. We can take a discussion about another topic another time. But if the trend continues up I will give you a message about that

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Quoting DrDave

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{quote} But while you are going through this long stretch of trading over time, will your DRAWDOWN kill your account before you make any substantial profits? And, are you going to INTERFERE in your trades that you set to 1:2 risk:reward instead of doing set and forget? If your answer is yes, then your premise is now down the toilet.

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Quoting kirinda

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{quote} If you for example have risk:reward 1:2 and winrate is 48% you will get rich if you have enough trades and your average winrate over time is 48%. Tekkies, you now this

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Quoting DrDave

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Uh-oh!! Who said something about going down? How can it be when price is closed ABOVE the H4 ema5 shift 2? Ohhhh, maybe because CHANGE comes from bottom up and not top down? {image}{image}

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Quoting kirinda

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{quote} The reason was the FOMC news. Not your technical analysis.

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