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Trading Made Simple

  • #112,921
  • Dec 11, 2020 5:26am Dec 11, 2020 5:26am
Quoting Atohm12
Newbie here looking for some advice, 'cause this is a very long thread. I know the OP said he didn't like 5m, 15m charts but has anyone used this on those timeframes?
Even if no one "used this on those timeframes", you can be successful because
post #1 April, 2011
I wanted a method that was simple, worked on all timeframes, simple rules, few indicators....

post #4470 June 1, 2011
Trade any time frame buddy. I just prefer 4hr for myself...
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #112,922
  • Dec 11, 2020 5:28am Dec 11, 2020 5:28am
Quoting Sunfrog
{quote} Hey Emmanuel, how are you trading the 15M/1H charts on the Sydney Tokyo session? I find that session to be very low volume and low volatility. There's also a few too many crossovers making it harder to identify high quality setups. It seems in that session it trades more in a sideways range than a trend. Though I have only tried it (unsuccessfully) on the hourly.
you are correct that the Asian session is usually narrow range due to the lower liquidity.

during the Sydney-Tokyo session, I only trade these pairs - AU, AJ and UJ.

I look at the Sydney 2H high-low and trade the breakout of this SYD_2H range. Just target 3 exits +5pips, +10pips and +15pips. If the breakout is strong, then 25 pips is good.

On certain days, there are also some trade opportunities when the market follow through news event from the US markets. EU, GU, UCad, and also EJ.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #112,923
  • Dec 11, 2020 5:34am Dec 11, 2020 5:34am
Quoting Atohm12
Newbie here looking for some advice, 'cause this is a very long thread. I know the OP said he didn't like 5m, 15m charts but has anyone used this on those timeframes?

so you want to trade M5 and M15, many traders love to trade in the fast lane thinking they can make fast money.

what are your trading hours?

you can trade M5 after London market closed and you can scalp the US session for 2 to 3 hours from EST 2pm to 5PM and you can make money too. I know scalpers trade the USDJPY on M5 MOMO and trade big lots to make 5pips.

it all depends on your own trading skills.

the OP has his own reasons why he did not like to trade those timeframes below H1. He was not profitable and he make more money trading H4 which suit his lifestyle and his time zone.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #112,924
  • Dec 11, 2020 5:35am Dec 11, 2020 5:35am
Quoting lddd
{quote} The problem with risk to reward is that you don’t know what you reward will be on any particular new trade.
An even bigger problem with risk to reward is that hardly anyone actually sets the TP and SL, walks away, and simply lets the trade run to one or the other. So instead of having an actual R:R result to apply for expectancy, etc., the pseudo R:R that is being viewed ends up being of little more value than to give "I feel good" or "I feel bad", depending on whether you're ahead or behind.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #112,925
  • Dec 11, 2020 5:48am Dec 11, 2020 5:48am
Quoting toti1985
my view for EUDUSD At Frankfurt open there was big drop down , but for me it was not clear enter signal , because H4 was still bullish. Now i will look for long entries or bounce on the TDI for short. For the moment i hold my trades on this pair. This is my point of view for the moment. let see if i am right
You need to get the perspective from all of the TFs.

The H4 swing up must be viewed as a rally, unless evidence appears to negate this view, to the H32 (~D1) down swing.
The smaller TFs have now cycled enough that it is "time" for the H4 to swing back down for the down continuation. It is clear that already this down swing has progressed through the H2 TF and is highly likely to get confirmed on H4 as well.
Therefore, it is "time" to check lower TFs for rallies to sell as down continuations of the H2/H4 swing.

Note that the rallies to sell on lower TFs have already progressed through M30 but not yet reached H1. The M30 continuation entry was about 40 minutes ago.

Trading made simple with IMT.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #112,926
  • Dec 11, 2020 5:56am Dec 11, 2020 5:56am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} there was a H1 setup when FO candle closed that fit my simple entry for day trading. but today I was busy with my photography hobby so I did not take any trade.
i could take a trade because there was also confirmation from 4h candle as well , and there was a cross , right ?
also the candle closed below the EMA , right ?
  • #112,927
  • Dec 11, 2020 6:16am Dec 11, 2020 6:16am
Quoting toti1985
{quote} i could take a trade because there was also confirmation from 4h candle as well , and there was a cross , right ? also the candle closed below the EMA , right ?

yes, I see the alert

but the Weekly is bullish

and looking at PA and support&resistance ...

you can possibly scalp the FO H1 close for 5,10 and 15pips 3 exits.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #112,928
  • Dec 11, 2020 7:16am Dec 11, 2020 7:16am
EURUSD - possible bounce and continue his way to downside. Lets see when the candle close
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  • #112,929
  • Dec 11, 2020 7:27am Dec 11, 2020 7:27am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} An even bigger problem with risk to reward is that hardly anyone actually sets the TP and SL, walks away, and simply lets the trade run to one or the other. So instead of having an actual R:R result to apply for expectancy, etc., the pseudo R:R that is being viewed ends up being of little more value than to give "I feel good" or "I feel bad", depending on whether you're ahead or behind.
Well... I do for all of my strategies currently... Most of the time I just set them and forget them, unless I am lucky enough to check the chart and find I am in a trade then I will re-analyze and sometimes adjust TPSL or manually close. I believe a proportion of traders do that too, more for working people like me.

TMS is a PA trading system so either the trade is managed real-time or TP/SL are at price structures or other levels. The RR for each trade is different to suit their unique contexts. The actual R:R / expectancy can only be known after a number of trades to get the average values. I have some trades with R:R as low as 0.5, and some at ~1:3. The goal is to have the %win * r:r > %lose * risk (= expectancy) to be in the profit territory.
  • #112,930
  • Dec 11, 2020 8:09am Dec 11, 2020 8:09am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Well... I do for all of my strategies currently... Most of the time I just set them and forget them, unless I am lucky enough to check the chart and find I am in a trade then I will re-analyze and sometimes adjust TPSL or manually close. I believe a proportion of traders do that too, more for working people like me. TMS is a PA trading system so either the trade is managed real-time or TP/SL are at price structures or other levels. The RR for each trade is different to suit their unique contexts. The actual R:R / expectancy can only be known...
The actual R:R / expectancy can only be known after a number of trades to get the average values. I have some trades with R:R as low as 0.5, and some at ~1:3. The goal is to have the %win * r:r > %lose * risk (= expectancy) to be in the profit territory

That is exactly my point.

But because most people that claim they apply the R:R strategy do not do set and forget but go in and manually tinker with either SL, TP, or both, they have no actual worthwhile R:R data to examine to do any of those further calculations. If you are going to tinker with the trade after entry, then the final after-the-fact R:R that you decide to report is nothing reproducible. The best you can get out of it is to pool a large set of consecutive R:Rs (at least 30) and run the statistical analysis to get the mean and standard deviation so you can then have an idea of what range your future R:Rs are likely to fall within IF YOU CONTINUE TO TINKER AS YOU DID FOR THE SAMPLE. I expect that even the 90% confidence interval will be very large, so let's not even think about for 99%.

So, you need to use the extremes of this interval in your calculations for expectancy so you can see just how low the expectancy can fall, so you won't be wondering in the future how in the world your expectancy has gone negative when you used ONLY the mean R:R in your expectancy calculations and it gave a nice positive.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #112,931
  • Dec 11, 2020 8:28am Dec 11, 2020 8:28am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Even if no one "used this on those timeframes", you can be successful because post #1 April, 2011 I wanted a method that was simple, worked on all timeframes, simple rules, few indicators.... post #4470 June 1, 2011 Trade any time frame buddy. I just prefer 4hr for myself...
Yeah, fourth paragraph down. Too much speed reading to get to the nitty gritty. Thanks for setting me straight.
  • #112,932
  • Dec 11, 2020 8:33am Dec 11, 2020 8:33am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} so you want to trade M5 and M15, many traders love to trade in the fast lane thinking they can make fast money. what are your trading hours? you can trade M5 after London market closed and you can scalp the US session for 2 to 3 hours from EST 2pm to 5PM and you can make money too. I know scalpers trade the USDJPY on M5 MOMO and trade big lots to make 5pips. it all depends on your own trading skills. the OP has his own reasons why he did not like to trade those timeframes below H1. He was not profitable and he make more money trading H4...
UK based so London to after the US open is ideal. As has been pointed out to me it says right there on the first page "works on all timeframes" which makes sense to me if it's a good system.

Thanks.
  • #112,933
  • Dec 11, 2020 8:37am Dec 11, 2020 8:37am
Yes. Discipline includes trusting your analysis and plan for exit

for me even sometimes manually override trades, I have minimum RR. Otherwise I would rather keep the original TP even meaning it may be a loss or BE
  • #112,934
  • Dec 11, 2020 8:53am Dec 11, 2020 8:53am
Quoting Atohm12
{quote} UK based so London to after the US open is ideal. As has been pointed out to me it says right there on the first page "works on all timeframes" which makes sense to me if it's a good system. Thanks.
Working on all TFs is not so much about it being a good system as it is about the TFs being fractal-like. Hence, if it works on one TF, it works on EVERY TF. (Of course with proper scaling to account for things like ATR differences on the TFs.)
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #112,935
  • Dec 11, 2020 8:55am Dec 11, 2020 8:55am
Quoting Atohm12
{quote} UK based so London to after the US open is ideal. As has been pointed out to me it says right there on the first page "works on all timeframes" which makes sense to me if it's a good system. Thanks.
It is a good system, when you follow only the advice BigE has posted in this thread. Don't make the mistake thinking you are going to run at full speed in the beginning.
  • #112,936
  • Dec 11, 2020 9:00am Dec 11, 2020 9:00am
Quoting tommydoginti
Yes. Discipline includes trusting your analysis and plan for exit for me even sometimes manually override trades, I have minimum RR. Otherwise I would rather keep the original TP even meaning it may be a loss or BE
You need a good TECHNICAL reason for TP placement, but many people simply decide that they will set TP based SOLELY on a calculation of 2Risk. And then they wonder why it went only 0.5R, when there was strong S/R (that they don't consider) when 2R is what YouTube Guru Master Trader showed them that he does using his terrific visual R:R setter (available for just 19.95 for a limited time! It's a STEAL [literally] at that price!)
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #112,937
  • Dec 11, 2020 9:48am Dec 11, 2020 9:48am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} It is a good system, when you follow only the advice BigE has posted in this thread. Don't make the mistake thinking you are going to run at full speed in the beginning.
A common mistake I'm sure. Thanks.
  • #112,938
  • Dec 11, 2020 9:49am Dec 11, 2020 9:49am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Working on all TFs is not so much about it being a good system as it is about the TFs being fractal-like. Hence, if it works on one TF, it works on EVERY TF. (Of course with proper scaling to account for things like ATR differences on the TFs.)
  • #112,939
  • Dec 11, 2020 11:15am Dec 11, 2020 11:15am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} yes, I see the alert but the Weekly is bullish and looking at PA and support&resistance ... you can possibly scalp the FO H1 close for 5,10 and 15pips 3 exits.
i review again the EURUSD. The 4h candle before the Frankfurt open was still bullish , so why to enter after the cross and drop after the 1hour ? where is the signal which you see for enter ?
thank you !
  • #112,940
  • Dec 11, 2020 11:52am Dec 11, 2020 11:52am
Quoting toti1985
{quote} i review again the EURUSD. The 4h candle before the Frankfurt open was still bullish , so why to enter after the cross and drop after the 1hour ? where is the signal which you see for enter ? thank you !
I already gave it to you here. It was the M30, not the H1.
H1 turned down (H2 stayed down) for the down continuation about 1h 45 minutes ago if you wanted to sell at this time of day.

You must not realize that change comes from the bottom up, not from the top down, or you would not be so stressed about the bullish W1/H4.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
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