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Trading Made Simple

  • #112,901
  • Dec 10, 2020 5:22pm Dec 10, 2020 5:22pm
Quoting T4Trade
{quote} Emm,my question to you is why do u use 2/8 of W1,sicne we are trading 4h-1h-15 min,is it not good keeping 2/8 of D? please share your thoughts behind it,thnks
Trading the 4 hour H4 chart timeframe

when we the 4hr, we can trade the H1 and M15 during a H4 candle period.

we do not limit ourselves to trade the H4 reversals with APB/HA #1 and APB/HA#2 entries.

We can trade in an established trend or the new swing of 3 to 8 candles after the first reversal. Be mindful, that a new H4 trend after a reversal can run more than 8 HA candles, the weekly has 29 (30) candles in one week.

This is the reason why I look at the weekly for many information when I prepare my trade plans. The Trend 2/8 is just one of the many information I have to work with.

Remember, Big E was a Synergy system trader. What did he learn from Dean Malone about how to spot market swings and trends?
That one of three important things of the Synergy trading model is the Price Action Channel PAC. Big E knew this but he removed it and replaced it with a 5EMA Typical Price,, Shift+2, (then later +3). He learn this displaced moving average from another trader. Google "displaced moving average" and study more.

Can you do your H4 top down analysis with this 5EMA and see the higher timeframes?


Attached Image

But what is Trend 2/8?

Why use Trend 2/8?

will be answered in a separate post.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #112,902
  • Dec 10, 2020 5:29pm Dec 10, 2020 5:29pm
Quoting T4Trade
{quote} Emm,my question to you is why do u use 2/8 of W1,sicne we are trading 4h-1h-15 min,is it not good keeping 2/8 of D? please share your thoughts behind it,thnks
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Trading the 4 hour H4 chart timeframe when we the 4hr, we can trade the H1 and M15 during a H4 candle period. we do not limit ourselves to trade the H4 reversals with APB/HA #1 and APB/HA#2 entries. We can trade in an established trend or the new swing of 3 to 8 candles after the first reversal. Be mindful, that a new H4 trend after a reversal can run more than 8 HA candles, the weekly has 29 (30) candles in one week. This is the reason why I look at the weekly for many information when I prepare my trade plans. The Trend 2/8 is just one...
this picture is worth more than a thousand words,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Dec 11 review swing low 11-12-2020 7-23-06 am.png Size: 77 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #112,903
  • Dec 10, 2020 5:41pm Dec 10, 2020 5:41pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
I had a good trading morning today Sydney-Tokyo session, just trade 1 to 3 hours, with full concentration and good fresh coffee. All winners no losers at the moment... {image} will post charts with the entries and exits for you all to learn how to pick setups with M15 and H1 candles.

yesterday was a good day because I hit my daily goal $1,000.
you can do this too, but do not look at just one day, or one week, or one month ... and get all fired up!
rather look at the results over a 36 months period and you will know what you can achieve as an average daily goal.

just follow a consistent approach every day and do not let the surrounding noise affect me and my trading.

the mental strategy is - shut out the noise and the negativity, remind myself of the happiness inside and why I trade the markets.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade Report Dec 10 11-12-2020 6-30-26 am.png Size: 34 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #112,904
  • Dec 10, 2020 11:24pm Dec 10, 2020 11:24pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} yesterday was a good day because I hit my daily goal $1,000. you can do this too, but do not look at just one day, or one week, or one month ... and get all fired up! rather look at the results over a 36 months period and you will know what you can achieve as an average daily goal. just follow a consistent approach every day and do not let the surrounding noise affect me and my trading. the mental strategy is - shut out the noise and the negativity, remind myself of the happiness inside and why I trade the markets. {image}
Hey Emmanuel, how are you trading the 15M/1H charts on the Sydney Tokyo session?

I find that session to be very low volume and low volatility. There's also a few too many crossovers making it harder to identify high quality setups. It seems in that session it trades more in a sideways range than a trend. Though I have only tried it (unsuccessfully) on the hourly.
  • #112,905
  • Dec 11, 2020 1:21am Dec 11, 2020 1:21am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} {quote} this picture is worth more than a thousand words, {image}
Thank you so much,what a perfect wonderful setup.
  • #112,906
  • Dec 11, 2020 1:40am Dec 11, 2020 1:40am
I have manually tested 100+ trade-in GU h1 chart just to find a small sample size.
My goal is to find which part of the system performs how, When I Found something good I will do the test more.

My findings are below in the picture-

RH HMA and 5EMA performed well it generates profit.
MACD generates little profit and RSI sthoc 50 cross Generate loss
I use the same stop and tp and the same market data to generate results.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.png Size: 39 KB
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #112,907
  • Dec 11, 2020 1:49am Dec 11, 2020 1:49am
EURUSD Dec 11 now Frankfurt Open

.... 7 hours ago sell at 1.2150 ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Dec 11 H4 atFO 11-12-2020 3-47-09 pm.png Size: 77 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Dec 11 7hrs agon sell 1.21508 11-12-2020 3-52-10 pm.png Size: 50 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #112,908
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:19am Dec 11, 2020 3:19am
Quoting hasib
I have manually tested 100+ trade-in GU h1 chart just to find a small sample size. My goal is to find which part of the system performs how, When I Found something good I will do the test more. My findings are below in the picture- RH HMA and 5EMA performed well it generates profit. MACD generates little profit and RSI sthoc 50 cross Generate loss I use the same stop and tp and the same market data to generate results. {image}
You're over-thinking it !!!

I suggest step away from all these indicators for some time and simply try to watch one market on a raw candle stick chart, find a simply non-indicator based entry method that is objective and easy to apply for and which is backed on statistics by analyzing price movement / time (not some squiggly lines, repainting indicators, moving averages and what else there is).

In the end you may find out that controlling your psychology, daily routine, risk and money management is by far more important to stay consistently profitable.

You are testing out things, this is good. But don't spend too much of your time doing it the way you seem to do it. (just saying).

Regarding to your dd question. You can either have a small drawdown and small returns or a higher dd and higher returns, most basically saying. If you try to make %% a month you will most likely fail with your prop trading challenge forcing you to stay under a 10% max drawdown or what it is (just saying). If those people could do it them selfs they didn't want to look for traders who can do so?

Anyways. Hope this will help a bit to you. Trade well.

Remember don't trade to be right, trade to make money. This is the main purpose of trading. Anyone telling you something else, put him/her/it on the ignore list.

You can have a 30% win rate and make tons of money, you can have a 90% win rate and end up losing all the time. It all depends on you.

P.S. Maybe also step away from the psycho traders thread here for some time until you find consistent success with your thing. I found this can be very distracting from achieving what you are looking for.
  • #112,909
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:24am Dec 11, 2020 3:24am
Now I will backtest this. Let's see how it goes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2.png Size: 38 KB
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #112,910
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:25am Dec 11, 2020 3:25am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EURUSD Dec 11 now Frankfurt Open .... 7 hours ago sell at 1.2150 ? {image} {image}
Hello Emmanuel. what is your view for EURUSD today ? 4H chart still shows uptrend ( now shows some weakens , but still not ready i think ) . maybe deep buy later ?
  • #112,911
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:36am Dec 11, 2020 3:36am
GU and EU today move very nicely.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #112,912
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:40am Dec 11, 2020 3:40am
Newbie here looking for some advice, 'cause this is a very long thread. I know the OP said he didn't like 5m, 15m charts but has anyone used this on those timeframes?
  • #112,913
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:59am Dec 11, 2020 3:59am
Quoting lddd
{quote} You're over-thinking it !!! I suggest step away from all these indicators for some time and simply try to watch one market on a raw candle stick chart, find a simply non-indicator based entry method that is objective and easy to apply for and which is backed on statistics by analyzing price movement / time (not some squiggly lines, repainting indicators, moving averages and what else there is). In the end you may find out that controlling your psychology, daily routine, risk and money management is by far more important to stay consistently...
Agree!

Your approach of backtesting shown is more like statistical or algo trading style. Fixed rules, fixed SL/TP, Indicator triggers. These are better off convert into auto trading strategies, which I think TMS is not suitable.

Indicators are just another presentation of the price action. My point of view of indicators are just for EA execution and confirmation for manual trading.
A better and more controllable entry is through statistical edge (e.g. time of day, history of price in a period of time), because they are timed entries.
Of course price action is even more advanced and beneficial.

For SL/TP, since TMS is more like a PA trading, the SL/TP should be dynamic to suit the current market. The RR will definitely mosaic. If you have a medium win rate of <55%, then one way is to trade setups that have a minimum RR, say 1:1.5, or you just skip and wait for next setup.

I watched a video on Youtube and the trader suggested to have >1:2 RR as beginner, because beginner tends to make more mistakes, so 1:2 can reduce number of trades and increase chance of BE / profit overall.

Hope it is helpful
  • #112,914
  • Dec 11, 2020 4:09am Dec 11, 2020 4:09am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} review your M15 and H1 charts, did you see any sell setup at the price 1.2150 level since New York closed yesterday?
there was a sell setup on frankfurt open. but what about the 4h chart ? at the time of the frankfurt open there was not signal from the bigger TF. also i am trading on 1h chart , so i look daily and 4h chart before trade . now it shows cross on the dowdnside?
  • #112,915
  • Edited 6:42am Dec 11, 2020 4:27am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Agree! Your approach of backtesting shown is more like statistical or algo trading style. Fixed rules, fixed SL/TP, Indicator triggers. These are better off convert into auto trading strategies, which I think TMS is not suitable. Indicators are just another presentation of the price action. My point of view of indicators are just for EA execution and confirmation for manual trading. A better and more controllable entry is through statistical edge (e.g. time of day, history of price in a period of time), because they are timed entries. Of...
The problem with risk to reward is that you don’t know what your reward will be on any particular new trade.
  • #112,916
  • Dec 11, 2020 5:08am Dec 11, 2020 5:08am
Quoting hasib
Now I will backtest this. Let's see how it goes. {image}
Why test?
Those arrows don't repaint / placed at beginning of the bar (arrow) you got a very profitabel sistem.
----
How long are you going to do these tests? The week before last you posted you a completed your testing and have a method to trade with.

When are you going to start trading with that method?
  • #112,917
  • Dec 11, 2020 5:13am Dec 11, 2020 5:13am
my view for EUDUSD
At Frankfurt open there was big drop down , but for me it was not clear enter signal , because H4 was still bullish.
Now i will look for long entries or bounce on the TDI for short.
For the moment i hold my trades on this pair.
This is my point of view for the moment. let see if i am right
  • #112,918
  • Dec 11, 2020 5:14am Dec 11, 2020 5:14am
Quoting lddd
{quote} You're over-thinking it !!! I suggest step away from all these indicators for some time and simply try to watch one market on a raw candle stick chart, find a simply non-indicator based entry method that is objective and easy to apply for and which is backed on statistics by analyzing price movement / time (not some squiggly lines, repainting indicators, moving averages and what else there is). In the end you may find out that controlling your psychology, daily routine, risk and money management is by far more important to stay consistently...
Maybe also step away from the psycho traders thread here for some time until you find consistent success with your thing.
You should have place that sentence as the first line of the post as well.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #112,919
  • Dec 11, 2020 5:18am Dec 11, 2020 5:18am
Quoting toti1985
my view for EUDUSD At Frankfurt open there was big drop down , but for me it was not clear enter signal , because H4 was still bullish. Now i will look for long entries or bounce on the TDI for short. For the moment i hold my trades on this pair. This is my point of view for the moment. let see if i am right

there was a H1 setup when FO candle closed that fit my simple entry for day trading.

but today I was busy with my photography hobby so I did not take any trade.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #112,920
  • Dec 11, 2020 5:20am Dec 11, 2020 5:20am
Quoting hasib
Now I will backtest this. Let's see how it goes. {image}

good more testing ...

when you want to trade Synergy_Pro system/method the rules are different from what Big E has written in this thread.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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