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TDA with IMT

  • #102
  • Edited 7:15am Jul 14, 2020 4:18am | Edited 7:15am
AUDJPY follow up from last week

The gold dashed verticals bound the week beginning July 6.

I stated in post #93 that I see down pressure from D1 and smaller time frames, and that one option was for movement higher to a level more favorable for selling. This option played out, with a clear down swing from a new high on H4. This down swing ended July 8 with another up swing reaching a lower high on July 9, from which the daily time frame fell approximately 100 pips.

This cycling is occurring within the context of the monthly time frame in an upswing, attempting to swing up even higher time frames that are overdue to go up.

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To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #103
  • Jul 25, 2020 9:02am Jul 25, 2020 9:02am
Hello drdave! Sorry I can not make private--i am new. I lurk much as guest and now sign up.

I think you have much interesting imt! I read your words on other threads. Also there is imt way. I can learn this imt way??
  • #104
  • Jul 25, 2020 12:39pm Jul 25, 2020 12:39pm
Quoting ivan9578
Hello drdave! Sorry I can not make private--i am new. I lurk much as guest and now sign up. I think you have much interesting imt! I read your words on other threads. Also there is imt way. I can learn this imt way??
добрый день друг! Thank you for your interest. Keep making postings and soon you will be able to send private messages. Then we can discuss more.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #105
  • Jul 29, 2020 9:45am Jul 29, 2020 9:45am
Hello again. I no can not make private. Must take long time?

Is ok make question here when can not make private?
  • #106
  • Jul 29, 2020 10:03am Jul 29, 2020 10:03am
Quoting ivan9578
Hello again. I no can not make private. Must take long time? Is ok make question here when can not make private?
I don't know how the moderators determine when you get the ability to PM. I think that it is not based on time at all, but just based on the number of posts that you have made.

So, OK, you can post some questions here.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #107
  • Sep 9, 2020 10:49am Sep 9, 2020 10:49am
Wow. This thread was half Toxic half Forex. TDA is one of the most successful forex analysis. Too bad toxicity took over this thread
  • #108
  • Edited Sep 10, 2020 3:05am Sep 9, 2020 11:13am | Edited Sep 10, 2020 3:05am
Quoting Nat.Fx
Wow. This thread was half Toxic half Forex. TDA is one of the most successful forex analysis. Too bad toxicity took over this thread
Well, toxicity did not take it over: I was able to shut it down by putting him on Ignore to block his warped behavior.

Now that I have him on Ignore and don't read his absurd posts, I'll have more time to make updates here.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #109
  • Sep 25, 2020 1:07pm Sep 25, 2020 1:07pm
A Big SHOUT OUT to our South African brothers and sisters as the world stays united in the face of the pandemic with the record breaking Jerusalema and the walka-dance!

Got 2 left feet? NO problem! Just take a walk to the beat and embellish in YOUR style!

Enjoy it here if it doesn't play.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mp4 Jerusalema Dance Challenge- By Fenomenos do Semba Master KG_v144P.mp4   3.9 MB | 469 downloads
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #110
  • Oct 31, 2020 10:01am Oct 31, 2020 10:01am
For you folks that enjoy statistical approaches but balk at using methods for stationary data on non-stationary time series data, have a read on this article (published 2019) and perhaps get some ideas for some approaches to try.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #111
  • Nov 1, 2020 4:21am Nov 1, 2020 4:21am
Makes me proud to be the same species as the author of this article- at least I think Im the same species. Rarefied thinking here
We are all One. Be present. Be the Observer
  • #112
  • Nov 1, 2020 6:07am Nov 1, 2020 6:07am
Quoting Iamfx
Makes me proud to be the same species as the author of this article- at least I think Im the same species. Rarefied thinking here
Technical point: There were three authors of this paper, not one.

For much of our developing life, we have blinders imposed, many by others and a few self-imposed, that for various reasons, are difficult to remove.

For some, a peek around the blinders and a view of something completely out of their realm of experience is too disturbing and stressful, so they retreat back to the comfort within the blinders.

For others, a "strange new world" is revealed, providing opportunities for engaging explorations.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #113
  • Edited 10:56am Nov 13, 2020 8:47am | Edited 10:56am
By special request, an analysis of EURUSD

Long term bias: up

The time frames of particular interest are M15 through H4. H4 is of particular interest due to the rather narrow range between support and resistance.

MN1 up, but the smaller sideways bars could be a weak pullback.
Needs to exceed 1.2555, which is very possible, to have a chance at more upside.
If 1.2555 is breached, the door is opened to climbing to 1.40.

W1 has probably started up from a pullback, but price has not advanced sufficiently to also show W2 up.

D1 down swing is a pullback that has likely completed, so looking to see if an up continuation is forming.
This supports the speculation that the W1 has probably started up.

H4 (and H8) are up. Price is at a resistance area so an H4 pullback would not be a surprise.
If the pullback does not follow through to the H8, then the return up will have higher probability of breaking through the resistance.
Note that H4, H8, and H16 together give strong support around 1.1770.

H1 Down. Most likely starting the pullback of H4.

M15 down continuation. H8 support expected to block it from making a lower low.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #114
  • Nov 14, 2020 4:05pm Nov 14, 2020 4:05pm
Dave tomorrow I will start reading your thread. Hope I can learn something from you. Keep doing good work.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #115
  • Nov 15, 2020 12:46am Nov 15, 2020 12:46am
Quoting DrDave
Repeated Behavior I have mentioned elsewhere that human behavior contains numerous cycles and that this behavior is imprinted on market behavior. The indicator below is on H1 timeframe. The white verticals are day separators. Notice how a peak occurs very regularly. I checked a few hundred consecutive days and found that the peaks occur most frequently at the same hour each day, and a small percentage occur within 1 hour of that peak hour. The troughs show similar behavior but with a wider variation in the time of the minimum. Perhaps we witness...
As far as my understanding, This cycle shows in London open market creates a Low or High of the day most of the time. and In the US session open after a few hours, it creates another low and high of the day usually it is the opposite side of the London open high or low.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #116
  • Nov 16, 2020 8:18am Nov 16, 2020 8:18am
Quoting DrDave
By special request, an analysis of EURUSD Long term bias: up The time frames of particular interest are M15 through H4. H4 is of particular interest due to the rather narrow range between support and resistance. MN1 up, but the smaller sideways bars could be a weak pullback. Needs to exceed 1.2555, which is very possible, to have a chance at more upside. If 1.2555 is breached, the door is opened to climbing to 1.40. W1 has probably started up from a pullback, but price has not advanced sufficiently to also show W2 up. D1 down swing is a pullback...
Here is a follow up from yesterday's late-day analysis of EURUSD.

Bias remains UP.

D1 Was noted to probably be beginning an up continuation, and this is reinforced with the price moving further up today.

M15 As expected, the down continuation was blocked from making a lower low and price climbed slowly from there.

H1 The H1 down move was short-lived as the M15 failed on the down continuation, as was expected.

H4 Of course, with the H1 down move truncated, the H4 never went into the pullback. The slow movement of price further up agrees with the D1 beginning an up continuation. However, note that today, H4 has indeed begun a pullback. Only if price approaches the support area around 1.1770 will there be concern that it may be a reversal rather then a pullback. Note that price has not yet dropped enough to turn down H8, so little concern currently about an H4 reversal.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #117
  • Edited Nov 21, 2020 2:11am Nov 20, 2020 5:20am | Edited Nov 21, 2020 2:11am
Here is an article speaking about a proof (of the weak Pinkser conjecture) that includes financial time series as comprising a combination of deterministic and random elements.

Proof Finds That All Change Is a Mix of Order and Randomness

For the 2018 paper MEASURE CONCENTRATION AND THE WEAK PINSKER PROPERTY, the PDF is attached.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf MeasureConcentationAndTheWeakPinskerproperty.pdf   1,005 KB | 653 downloads
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #118
  • Nov 20, 2020 7:32am Nov 20, 2020 7:32am
Have you ever wondered which moving average(s) is the "best" for financial time series? Find out what Raudys et al., determined to be best for smoothness and lag properties when 1850 real-world time series were studied.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2013--Raudys--MovingAveragesForFinancialDataSmoothing.pdf   269 KB | 794 downloads
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #119
  • Nov 23, 2020 1:15pm Nov 23, 2020 1:15pm
I really love your approach sir and am hungry and thirsty to learn it from you.
Waiting forward for your reply.
Praying to God it turns out positive
  • #120
  • Nov 26, 2020 1:30am Nov 26, 2020 1:30am
Dave, you got mail.
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