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TDA with IMT

Quoting Tekkies
Dave, you got mail.
I know. But it appears that some people either have severe reading comprehension issues or do not bother to read even post #1.

I do not guarantee responding to questions, enquiries, and comments.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Hi DRDave,

Is quite unfortunate that I happen to be a junior member at forexfactory which implies that I was unable to pm.
I wouldn't mind if you can through your kindness send me your Gmail so that we can communicate through that without interruption
Am highly interested in learning this approach of technical analysis
Ok,I understand you DRDAVE.
I will try to put alot of my efforts in posting.
  • Post #125
  • Quote
  • Edited Jan 4, 2021 7:30am Jan 3, 2021 4:12pm | Edited Jan 4, 2021 7:30am
OK people, let's start 2021 with a look at GBPUSD.
Please remember that IMT analyses are based on expectations/probabilities of "normal" market movements. Considering that the pandemic is an "unusual event", we could very well see some unusual deviations from expected movements.

The bigger picture
Because we are in a rather long-term down move via the Year2+ turning down, with rallies still due on MN8 and higher TFs, there is an expectation for the current up swing seen on MN1 to end soon (likely within 1-3 months) followed by a pullback of 5-8 months that is likely to reach around 1.26, but with the behavior of recent swings, could reach to about 1.2. Then a subsequent up swing to the 1.35 to 1.45 area.

For day trading
The MN1 is very likely to be ending, although not yet confirmed. In fact, H4 and higher TFs are all up as well, with H4 overdue to fall.

H1 and H4 are TFs of interest. H1 is moving down and expected to fall further .

Expect cycling both up and down on M15 and M30. If market participants show typical activity, then H4 and H8 could swing down and H4 cycle down as well.

Be sure to have the correct TF as the focus TF, as it could move both up and down in these unusual conditions.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
do you consider technical or fundamental trends?
Quoting kattie
do you consider technical or fundamental trends?
Technical.

The only fundamental material that I consider is "unusual events" that are large scale disruptions to the day-to-day usual events.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Technical. The only fundamental material that I consider is "unusual events" that are large scale disruptions to the day-to-day usual events.
Those unusual events are usually really good for entering low leverage trades,if you have patience & pockets..

I think your approach to the markets is similar to the way a magnet works, analyzing all the TF's and so on, you don't let the price have much chance against you but pick a direction and it is based on the what the all Tf's are mixed and aboutta do...Personally, too much work and indepth analysis for me,but I can see the logic behind It
I wish you a great succsess MrDave.
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Quoting PixelSniper
{quote} Those unusual events are usually really good for entering low leverage trades,if you have patience & pockets.. I think your approach to the markets is similar to the way a magnet works, analyzing all the TF's and so on, you don't let the price have much chance against you but pick a direction and it is based on the what the all Tf's are mixed and aboutta do...Personally, too much work and indepth analysis for me,but I can see the logic behind It I wish you a great succsess MrDave.
Thank you, PS.
An analysis of a pair requires only about 5 to 15 minutes.

If it is done on the weekend, then the follow up at the end of the day takes just 2 to 5 minutes, because the larger TFs often don't change in 1 day.

IMT also makes it easy to determine the control TF and the focus TF. Many systems use a fixed TF, such as D1 or H4, as the control Tf, and then run into problems with direction because, like a stopped clock, a fixed control TF is wrong most of the time.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Quoting DrDave
OK people, let's start 2021 with a look at GBPUSD. Please remember that IMT analyses are based on expectations/probabilities of "normal" market movements. Considering that the pandemic is an "unusual event", we could very well see some unusual deviations from expected movements. The bigger picture Because we are in a rather long-term down move via the Year2+ turning down, with rallies still due on MN8 and higher TFs, there is an expectation for the current up swing seen on MN1 to end soon (likely within 1-3 months) followed by a pullback of 5-8...
Did the previous GBPUSD analysis help guide you in your trading decisions on Monday?
Let's see how things unfolded ...

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In fact, H4 and higher TFs are all up as well, with H4 overdue to fall.
Clearly, H4 fell as anticipated.
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H1 and H4 are TFs of interest. H1 is moving down and expected to fall further .
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Although at the end of the year the H1 had started down, there was no follow through and after the market opened on Sunday, price climbed to a higher high. But the following day, price consolidated, followed by the expected drop, which was strong and sustained, resulting in H2, H4, and H8 all turning down in rapid succession.

Note that these higher TF expectations were met.
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If market participants show typical activity, then H4 and H8 could swing down ...

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Expect cycling both up and down on M15 and M30.
Although this cycling is the typical, expected behavior, the down move was strong and sustained, providing considerable profits along the way with no substantial rallies on M15 until late in the period.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
A discussion arose about the GBPUSD H4 recent up swing. The down bar marked by the red dashed vertical was mentioned on 06 January 2021 as the likely start of a DOWN CONTINUATION after the RALLY to the H16 TF. But some people decided that this up swing was an up continuation, destined to take price to higher highs and therefore made some buy entries late in the rally, which likely ended with little, if any, profit.

So for the IMT followers, the EXPECTATION of a rally to be sold has played out, as can be seen.

Note that after the yellow vertical, price did make a move a bit higher. However, as was also mentioned, the red vertical was the riskier EARLY entry, because the H8 was still up, as can be seen by the green histogram bars of the IMT_MACD indicator. The conservative entry was at the crossing of the green line with 0 during the 3rd hour of the 2nd white HA bar, but much better entry obtained by consulting lower TFs rather than H4.
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The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Quoting DrDave
A discussion arose about the GBPUSD H4 recent up swing. The down bar marked by the red dashed vertical was mentioned on 06 January 2021 as the likely start of a DOWN CONTINUATION after the RALLY to the H16 TF. But some people decided that this up swing was an up continuation, destined to take price to higher highs and therefore made some buy entries late in the rally, which likely ended with little, if any, profit. So for the IMT followers, the EXPECTATION of a rally to be sold has played out, as can be seen. Note that after the yellow vertical,...
Note that after the yellow vertical, price did make a move a bit higher.
This is supposed to be RED vertical, not yellow.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
For week 2 of 2021

The bigger picture
No change from the bigger picture from post #125, so simply repeated it below.

Because we are in a rather long-term down move via the Year2+ turning down with rallies still due on MN8 and higher TFs, there is an expectation for the current up swing seen on MN1 to end soon (likely within 1-3 months) followed by a pullback of 5-8 months that is likely to reach around 1.26, but with the behavior or recent swings, could reach to about 1.2. Then a subsequent up swing to the 1.35 to 1.45 area.

For day trading
D1 is the control TF.
M4 is the focus TF.
M4 through H1 are TFs of interest where action is expected.
If up momentum becomes strong enough, H4 could see action as well.

MN1 As reported earlier, he MN1 is very likely to be ending, although not yet confirmed. Supporting this view was the fall of lower TFs, from the H4 all the way up to the D1. Note that the W1 is still up.

W1 Has not ended its up swing yet, but the D1 falling supports the expectation that W1 will fall.

D1 has finally turned down and is set as the control TF. But note already has 5 down bars.

H4 Turned down as was expected, and most likely has ended the down bias. Now due to swing back up on the road to swinging up H16.

H1 Down, but due to swing up.

M15 Overdue to swing up.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Quoting DrDave
For week 2 of 2021 The bigger picture No change from the bigger picture from post #125, so simply repeated it below. Because we are in a rather long-term down move via the Year2+ turning down with rallies still due on MN8 and higher TFs, there is an expectation for the current up swing seen on MN1 to end soon (likely within 1-3 months) followed by a pullback of 5-8 months that is likely to reach around 1.26, but with the behavior or recent swings, could reach to about 1.2....
For day trading
D1 is the control TF.
M4 is the focus TF.
M4 through H1 are TFs of interest where action is expected.
If up momentum becomes strong enough, H4 could see action as well.

MN1 As reported earlier, he MN1 is very likely to be ending, although not yet confirmed. Supporting this view was the fall of lower TFs, from the H4 all the way up to the D1. Note that the W1 is still up.

W1 Has not ended its up swing yet, but the D1 falling supports the expectation that W1 will fall.

D1 has finally turned down and is set as the control TF. But note already has 5 down bars.

H4 Turned down as was expected, and most likely has ended the down bias. Now due to swing back up on the road to swinging up H16.

H1 Down, but due to swing up.

M15 Overdue to swing up.
How did things play out versus the above analysis?
H4 Turned down as was expected, and most likely has ended the down bias. Now due to swing back up on the road to swinging up H16.
Yesterday, H4 continued a bit further down, and as expected, before the day was over ended its down swing and began the up swing.

And of course, for H4 to make an up swing, the lower TFs had to swing up (and typically do some cycling). And so the H1 and M15 expectations of swinging back up were met. (H1 made 1 cycle; M15 made multiple cycles.)

H1 Down, but due to swing up.
M15 Overdue to swing up.

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The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
  • Post #135
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:17am Jan 17, 2021 10:04am | Edited 11:17am
GBPUSD For week 3 of 2021

The bigger picture
No change from the bigger picture from post #125, so simply repeated it below.
Because we are in a rather long-term down move via the Year2+ turning down with rallies still due on MN8 and higher TFs, there is an expectation for the current up swing seen on MN1 to end soon (likely within 1-3 months) followed by a pullback of 5-8 months that is likely to reach around 1.26, but with the behavior or recent swings, could reach to about 1.2. Then a subsequent up swing to the 1.35 to 1.45 area.

For day trading
TFs below the MN1 have been making the expected rallies and down continuations as needed to progress toward turning down the MN1. The down continuations have now progressed through the H8 TF. For non-IMT traders, viewing the limited TFs provided by MT4, or even if H4, H8, H16, D1, etc. are available to examine, can lead to confusion without examining even higher TFs in order to determine if the down trends that develop on the lower TFs are continuations of the much bigger TF down trend, or if they are simply pullbacks in a larger TF that is developing an up trend rally.

Expect H2 and lower TFs to cycle.

H4/H8 are TFs of interest to see if the expected upswing will develop as an up move for selling, not for trending up.

D1 The down swing on D1 this week was being viewed as the expected end of the extended up trend. The ensuing up swing failing to make a higher swing high indicates it is more likely a rally in a new down trend rather than another extension of the up swing. H4 and H8 support this view.

H4/H8 Have cycled in a down trend, attempting to swing down H16. Although price could continue to fall further, H4 is due to swing back up to take price to a more favorable level for selling to bring down H16.

H1/H2 are overdue to swing up, consistent with the H4 due to swing up.

M30/M15 made a weak effort at an up move and likely to fall a bit further before buyers step in to begin the up trend needed to move the H1-H4 into up swings mentioned above.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD For week 3 of 2021 The bigger picture No change from the bigger picture from post #125, so simply repeated it below. Because we are in a rather long-term down move via the Year2+ turning down with rallies still due on MN8 and higher TFs, there is an expectation for the current up swing seen on MN1 to end soon (likely within 1-3 months) followed by a pullback of 5-8 months that is likely to reach around 1.26, but with the behavior or recent swings, could reach to about...
GBPUSD
How is it playing out compared to the weekend analysis? Were you able to use the information to your advantage in today's trading?

The yellow dashed vertical marks where post #135 was made on Sunday.

M30/M15 made a weak effort at an up move and likely to fall a bit further before buyers step in to begin the up trend needed to move the H1-H4 into up swings

The down move continued about another 50 pips, then M15 broke into an up swing and cycled into an up trend, as expected.

H1 definitely makes an up swing, as expected.

H4 makes swing up, as expected.

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The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
GBPUSD For week 4 of 2021

Although during week 2 H16 went up as expected, the H32/D1 also went up on what would be expected as a rally. At the end of the week the H16 fell again, as needed to bring down D1 in a down continuation. However, this down move was a failed down continuation and in week 3, not only did H32/D1 swing up but also D2 and a new high reached, resetting all smaller TFs to restart their down swings.

At the end of week 3, the down swings had already progressed to H8, with H1 and H2 already in rallies as week 3 ended. So to start week 4, the progress of the rallies will be followed, looking for opportunities to sell the down continuations while remaining alert for failed rallies that may provide buying opportunities.

So this week will expect action on all TFs below D1, with cycling on all TFs below H4.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Most underrated thread of the Trading Systems section,simply because it is HARD to grasp,maybe it is easy for you because you know what you are doing DrDave.
It is confusing at the first glance.
I think we really require a STEP BY STEP introduction on this,I know you have been explaining but see.
For example you are speaking of an H16 chart, H32 chart but you don't post the screens of them.
Maybe it is me can't really get it and I tried couple of times
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Quoting PixelSniper
Most underrated thread of the Trading Systems section,simply because it is HARD to grasp,maybe it is easy for you because you know what you are doing DrDave. It is confusing at the first glance. I think we really require a STEP BY STEP introduction on this,I know you have been explaining but see. For example you are speaking of an H16 chart, H32 chart but you don't post the screens of them. Maybe it is me can't really get it and I tried couple of times
From post #1
I started this thread after several requests for market analyses.

Do you see any mention of something like,"I will be sharing/explaining a method of analyzing the markets"? The closet you will find is this in post #1
applying principles of Intrinsic Market Timing

So, if you have questions about it, you are welcome to try this from post #1
If you have some comments or questions, please PM me. But again, I do not guarantee responding.
The markets are speaking to you. Do you know their language? I M T
Quoting DrDave
{quote} From post #1 I started this thread after several requests for market analyses. Do you see any mention of something like,"I will be sharing/explaining a method of analyzing the markets"? The closet you will find is this in post #1 applying principles of Intrinsic Market Timing So, if you have questions about it, you are welcome to try this from post #1 If you have some comments or questions, please PM me. But again, I do not guarantee responding.
POST #1
Ok DrDave.
Tomorrow I will be conquering this with a fresh mind.

Actually I think I get it, you wanna do mini counter-trend trades that are against the ACTUAL/MAIN trend.
For example if the D1,H16,H8,H4 are UP but you see some down movements on the lower TF's that means you are looking for a buy,I Guess.
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