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Attachments: TDA with IMT
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TDA with IMT

GBPUSD follow up

We saw yesterday M128 go down for a sell continuation. Shortly after, M256 also went down for an add on sell. This brought ALL charts from M4096 and lower down! Therefore, the cycling back up through the timeframes, beginning with M1, starts over.

We see that already today, the up moves have made it through the M256 and threatening to take M512 up. However, this was blocked by smaller timeframes coming down which has progressed through taking M64 down and threatening M128. It is likely that there will be a turn up before M128 goes down.

This last down move was robust with opportunities for sell continuation entries only appearing on very small timeframes.

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Repeated Behavior


I have mentioned elsewhere that human behavior contains numerous cycles and that this behavior is imprinted on market behavior. The indicator below is on H1 timeframe. The white verticals are day separators. Notice how a peak occurs very regularly. I checked a few hundred consecutive days and found that the peaks occur most frequently at the same hour each day, and a small percentage occur within 1 hour of that peak hour.

The troughs show similar behavior but with a wider variation in the time of the minimum.

Perhaps we witness here the imprint of the actions of a large group of humans performing similar sets of actions at nearly the same time each trading day. Could this information lead you to finding an edge in your trading plan?

Can you think of some additional analyses that might give more insight into this cyclic phenomenon that could impact a trading edge?

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GBPUSD follow up

Some have asked why these GBPUSD images have been showing so many moves of M128 and M256 timeframes and not something to trade on smaller timeframes. The answer is, because the M128, M256, and sometimes M64 timeframes are where the latest cycling is occuring. Trading lower timeframes means that you are trading inside of a range that is formed by these higher timeframes rather than trading on a developing trend. The entries shown are for the highest probability setups for trend continuation entries. For example, the last sell of the M256 was the "safe" sell, but more risky sells could have been done earlier as M64 and then M128 turned down.
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GBPUSD update.

GBPUSD is in a cycle for M1024 to drop. Therefore, looking for lower timeframes to come down from higher levels. OF course, looking for the down move failures that can reset the timeframe "percolation". As of this writing, M16 has confirmed a turn down and M32 is attempting to follow.

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Quoting DrDave
GBPUSD update. GBPUSD is in a cycle for M1024 to drop. Therefore, looking for lower timeframes to come down from higher levels. OF course, looking for the down move failures that can reset the timeframe "percolation". As of this writing, M16 has confirmed a turn down and M32 is attempting to follow. {image}
Intraday Followup

Although the down move reached M128, the subsequent up move went too far up to maintain the percolation of the down move, resetting the down percolation.
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AUDJPY
Direction bias: long term, down. However, Monthly is very overdue to go up and is currently closing up bars. Despite this, W1 is due to fall and shows a possible topping pattern.

Supporting this down potential is D1 very overdue to drop, having 76 bars in its uptrend, and now closed 7 bars in a down swing. The subsequent upswing must be monitored closely to see if it continues to a new high and extends the uptrend even further, or if it does only a rally then swings down to begin a W1 down swing.

Control: MN1
Action: With the uncertainty in D1, watch H4 and H1. H1 could very well make more cycles that bring H4 further down.
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Quoting DrDave
AUDJPY Direction bias: long term, down. W1 is due to fall and shows a possible topping pattern. Supporting this down potential is D1 very overdue to drop, having 76 bars in its uptrend, and now closed 7 bars in a down swing. The subsequent upswing must be monitored closely to see if it continues to a new high and extends the uptrend even further, or if it does only a rally then swings down to begin a W1 down swing. Control: MN1 Action: With the uncertainty in D1, watch H4 and H1. H1 could very well make more cycles that bring H4 further down.
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The D1 now. Can see that the 16th was a lower high swing high.
The previous analysis indicated H1 and H4 were important to watch for how the D1 would unfold.
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On the H4, the HA bars indicate price fell the entire day on the 16th, then began the 17th with a small rally followed by a down continuation. The 18th showed similar behavior with an initial small rally followed by a down continuation.
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However, checking H1 as well, as stated in the previous post, shows that the 16th began with price continuing up to the swing high, then falling in a 1-2-3 sequence. Similarly, H1 shows that the 17th began with a price drop followed by an up swing. Careful analysis reveals the the final H1 bar of the 16th is a swing high that begins a 1-2-3 up sequence. marked with the red and green trend lines. The higher high then begins a 1-2-3 down sequence, with swing 1 ending early on the 18th. Swing 2 was a normal rally with a lower high followed by swing 3 that appears to be ending essentially truncated to only an equal low. This should be watched carefully to see if it develops into sideways range that then continues further down, or develops into a new swing 1 up. If the price goes down, 72.98 is nearby support followed by 72.64 then 72.53.
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@DrDave,
any idea about GBPjpy or GBPnzd for next week?
thanks in advance
AUDJPY
This pair has moved into an interesting condition. Although the MN8 is due to go up and MN1 is in an upswing, the swing has not gone convincingly above the prior swing high and already W1 is due to make a pullback. If the pullback ends rather shallow, then the up continuation could result in the MN1 going convincingly above its prior swing high.

I have a bias toward H4 going up because it is overdue. For this to happen, the cycling below it must bring price higher. However, with the recent weakness seen in AUD compared to JPY, watch carefully the swings of the lower timeframes to see if they show commitment when changing direction or if they move into consolidation as the big players stand aside.
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  • Post #90
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:40am Jun 22, 2020 4:21am | Edited 4:40am
Quoting DrDave
AUDJPY This pair has moved into an interesting condition. Although the MN8 is due to go up and MN1 is in an upswing, the swing has not gone convincingly above the prior swing high and already W1 is due to make a pullback. If the pullback ends rather shallow, then the up continuation could result in the MN1 going convincingly above its prior swing high. I have a bias toward H4 going up because it is overdue. For this to happen, the cycling below it must bring price higher. However, with the recent weakness seen in AUD compared to JPY, watch...
Here are the AUDJPY M15 and H4 this morning. M15 followed through with a 1-2-3 up. The thicker green trendline is for the H1 TF. This shows definite commitment to going up.

Now looking for cycling that will take H4 even higher.

Addendum: IMT traders, you know that M15 is no longer the TF to focus on, right?

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Quoting vasilyZ
@DrDave, any idea about GBPjpy or GBPnzd for next week? thanks in advance
GBPJPY
MN1 is on an upswing.
W1 is on a retracement that is likely ending with the H4 upswing.
Therefore, I have an up bias for this pair.
However, for these high TFs to progress higher, lower TFs must cycle down to levels that are attractive for larger moves upward.

Currently, it appears that the H4 upswing is ending, giving an expectation of an ensuing H4 pullback followed by an up continuation. Of course, smaller TFs will have tradable sell setups during the H4 pullback. Like all retracements, monitor to see if it retraces too far and breaks the cycling.
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GBPUSD

White vertical is GMT 00:00 23 June

Many people use one or two timeframes, often along with multiple indicators or even an EA, to try to determine trade direction. This kind of analysis lead to buy entries being made on the M15 at the indicated upswing, expecting this to be an up continuation of an already extended run up. Many buyers ended in a loss when price fell after advancing only a relatively small amount.

IMT traders, by examining all of the timeframes with particular attention to H4 and H1, were able to determine the high probability that this upswing would be a mere rally, and those that trade retracements examined the relevant TFs and made a buy with appropriate adjustments for risk and profit levels. More conservative IMT traders examined all of the TFs for how how far through the TFs the rally went, then made their sell entries based on H2 with refinement using M30 to sell the open of the marked bar.

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AUDJPY
Before market opens this week.

I see a lot of down pressure from D1 down through M5. This makes an expectation for a possible aggressive drop. However, if a more "normal" behavior is displayed, there will be substantial cycling with up swings going higher in order to position for better selling, not in order to change the trend.

M15 and H1 should prove to be especially important as the new week starts.
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  • Post #94
  • Quote
  • Edited 3:13pm Jul 8, 2020 12:45pm | Edited 3:13pm
08 July 2020
AUDJPY follow up
Dashed white vertical is where we ended on post#93, before the July 5 market opened for a new week.

Although I stated that there was a lot of down pressure, I also noted that "if a more 'normal' behavior is displayed, there will be substantial cycling with up swings going higher in order to position for better selling, not in order to change the trend." And clearly, there were plenty of buying opportunities on Monday, followed by switching to selling after the lower top was conformed. On Tuesday and Wednesday, my bias remained looking for sell opportunities because H4 did not make a confirmed turn back up. Note that for counter-trend traders, H1 offered buying opportunities as well.

On the M15 chart we see that when the market opened, there was an initial drop in price followed by an extensive up move with some small pullbacks, as expected from the more "normal" approach. After the swing high was reached, a clear down channel has been in effect, which is more obvious when viewed on the H4 TF. H1 is included for a bit different perspective.

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